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Captain Risky

Trump:Fire and Fury

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RoofGardener
Just now, toast said:

Result: SK and Japan burning, some 100k civilians dead because of 2 loudmouths. Its not a SPS4 game, dude, its the reality.

"Dude", why would SK and Japan "burn" ? They MIGHT burn if we sit back for another decade and do nothing. But surely if we act NOW, and destroy his artillery, then that makes Seoul SAFER ? As for Japan.... NK can't threaten them. 

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Gromdor

Hard to destroy 8-12 thousand of anything instantaneously.  Biggest complaint people are having is that Trump made the threats without moving troops anywhere near any position to do anything.  Let alone moving soft targets like civilians away.  Unless he is planning on doing a half-assed sneak attack while leaving the soldiers families in the line of fire, he isn't going to blow up all the artillery.  

A partial pre-emptive strike would just start off the war.  With the added negative of having been us that blinked and panicked first.

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Farmer77
Just now, RoofGardener said:

"Dude", why would SK and Japan "burn" ? They MIGHT burn if we sit back for another decade and do nothing. But surely if we act NOW, and destroy his artillery, then that makes Seoul SAFER ? As for Japan.... NK can't threaten them. 

Artillery, lots and lots of artillery. Thats the failsafe which IMO has kept us from taking him out long ago. Granted once they fire off their positions become known and can be targeted so they wouldnt get much more than a couple of salvos off but they have enough artillery pointed south to reign mass destruction on SK with just the one. 

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toast
3 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

"Dude", why would SK and Japan "burn" ? They MIGHT burn if we sit back for another decade and do nothing. But surely if we act NOW, and destroy his artillery, then that makes Seoul SAFER ? As for Japan.... NK can't threaten them. 

Its called strategy. If the US would hit NK, NK`s first reaction would be to fully attack SK to weak an ally and to split the US military force actions to at least 2 arenas. Japan would earn intermediate-range missiles from NK, not because of a strategic background but because of the fact that the fat guy is grazy in a Nero-like fashion. Plus, if there are any NK ICBMs ready to use, where would they impact`? US west coast, Seoul, Europe maybe? And, do you remember the stunt with the fleets of B-52s on the one side and the 5foot2 guys with a shovel and a rotten AK-47 on the other side? As I`ve said already, its not that easy and it isnt a SPS4 game.

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joc
40 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

Hard to destroy 8-12 thousand of anything instantaneously.  Biggest complaint people are having is that Trump made the threats without moving troops anywhere near any position to do anything.  Let alone moving soft targets like civilians away.  Unless he is planning on doing a half-assed sneak attack while leaving the soldiers families in the line of fire, he isn't going to blow up all the artillery.  

A partial pre-emptive strike would just start off the war.  With the added negative of having been us that blinked and panicked first.

In the first place Trump threatened no one!  Kimmy is the one doing all the threatening!

See Gromdor...if you have an Axe in your hand and you say..Joc, I'm gonna chop you up with my Ax!  I would probably say something like, Grommy...if you don't stop that threatening me with that axe I'm gonna kick your ass so far down the road Scotland Yard will never find it!  I did not threaten you...I just told you what I'd do if you kept on threatening me.

In the second place...If Kimmy nuked Denver....would we annihilate his entire Military Infrastructure and much of the civilian populace with a nuclear response?  Of course we would!

So...if you threaten me with destruction...what are my options?  Wait until you kill 2 million American citizens and then incinerate you? or tell you shut up or I'll incinerate your fat stupid little fat ass?   

Get the point?

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Gromdor
1 hour ago, joc said:

In the first place Trump threatened no one!  Kimmy is the one doing all the threatening!

See Gromdor...if you have an Axe in your hand and you say..Joc, I'm gonna chop you up with my Ax!  I would probably say something like, Grommy...if you don't stop that threatening me with that axe I'm gonna kick your ass so far down the road Scotland Yard will never find it!  I did not threaten you...I just told you what I'd do if you kept on threatening me.

In the second place...If Kimmy nuked Denver....would we annihilate his entire Military Infrastructure and much of the civilian populace with a nuclear response?  Of course we would!

So...if you threaten me with destruction...what are my options?  Wait until you kill 2 million American citizens and then incinerate you? or tell you shut up or I'll incinerate your fat stupid little fat ass?   

Get the point?

Lol, try your logic on your local congressman and see what happens.  But calling it a threat or statement of fact is irrelevant.  The fact of the matter is that we aren't in position do destroy 8-12k entrenched artillery pieces.  

We could possibly do it but it would involve a bit of ground work first.  Instead of speaking softly and carrying a big stick, we are speaking loudly and leaving the stick at home, though.  Get my point?

Edited by Gromdor
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Paranormal Panther

I might offer a glazed carrot dessert to China. They would get the sweet treat if they would remove and replace the crazy threat to world peace. They still have some influence on the North Korean government. Maybe they could work with some sane people who are close to the insane leader.

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Gromdor
13 minutes ago, Paranormal Panther said:

I might offer a glazed carrot dessert to China. They would get the sweet treat if they would remove and replace the crazy threat to world peace. They still have some influence on the North Korean government. Maybe they could work with some sane people who are close to the insane leader.

We just sent a destroyer through their newly claimed artificial island's water.  

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Paranormal Panther
6 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

We just sent a destroyer through their newly claimed artificial island's water.  

That's a good show of force. An inside job likely would help more.

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Thanato
3 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

"Dude", why would SK and Japan "burn" ? They MIGHT burn if we sit back for another decade and do nothing. But surely if we act NOW, and destroy his artillery, then that makes Seoul SAFER ? As for Japan.... NK can't threaten them. 

Seoul is gone if we do something. That's the problem. Damned if you do damned if you don't.

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simplybill

I suspect all 8-12,000 artillery positions were seen by surveillance satellites even as they were being constructed, and precautions have already been taken to ensure the safety of the American military presence in South Korea. 

And I suspect there are few locations in North Korea that are safe from attacks by drones. I just now saw an article (posted yesterday) about the MQ-1 Predator drone being replaced by the MQ-9 Reaper. If Mr. Kim makes a move, the old Predator inventory would quickly be disposed of. 

http://thefifthcolumnnews.com/2017/08/us-air-force-transitioning-from-predators-to-reaper-drones/

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Thanato
3 minutes ago, simplybill said:

I suspect all 8-12,000 artillery positions were seen by surveillance satellites even as they were being constructed, and precautions have already been taken to ensure the safety of the American military presence in South Korea. 

And I suspect there are few locations in North Korea that are safe from attacks by drones. I just now saw an article (posted yesterday) about the MQ-1 Predator drone being replaced by the MQ-9 Reaper. If Mr. Kim makes a move, the old Predator inventory would quickly be disposed of. 

http://thefifthcolumnnews.com/2017/08/us-air-force-transitioning-from-predators-to-reaper-drones/

Neither the US or SK can destroy all the artillery before tens of thousands of rounds fly south into SK killing untold thousands.

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simplybill
14 minutes ago, Thanato said:

Neither the US or SK can destroy all the artillery before tens of thousands of rounds fly south into SK killing untold thousands.

If Kim attacks Guam or South Korea, it will be the first major war in history between two nuclear-armed opponents that have threatened to destroy one another. I imagine the casualties could number in the millions.

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Thanato
30 minutes ago, simplybill said:

If Kim attacks Guam or South Korea, it will be the first major war in history between two nuclear-armed opponents that have threatened to destroy one another. I imagine the casualties could number in the millions.

And hopefully Mattis will keep Trump from going Nuclear even if the US is nuked. If the US nuked NK in retaliation it most likely will draw in China as an opposition force and possibly Russia as well.

please keep this war conventional even if the other side goes Nuclear.

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Olate1

"Fire & Fury & a Swarm of Locusts."......there, that sounds better.

 

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RoofGardener
8 hours ago, Thanato said:

Neither the US or SK can destroy all the artillery before tens of thousands of rounds fly south into SK killing untold thousands.

I think they can.

NK artillery capability - like its "ICBM" capability - is hugely overestimated by the media, who are more interested in headlines than accuracy.

NK may have 13,000 artillery pieces (and multiple rocket launchers) on the border, but "only" around 1000 have the range to hit Seoul.

It should be possible to hit many of these "1000" almost simultaneously in a pre-emptive strike. The remainder may not even be aware that their brethren have been attacked, and would - for the most part - need to seek orders from the High Command in order to fire back. This would give ample time for multiple additional waves of attack against them.

It's also worth noting that the last time NK indulged in a an artillery attack, it didn't exactly distinguish itself, despite pre-planning and having both the element of surprise, and oodles of time to prepare and aim.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345

All in all, I would have hoped that a surprise attack by SK and US forces could damage and disorganise the NK long-range artillery on the border so badly within the first couple of waves that it would be unable to mount any kind of counterattack, and would be entirely wiped out within a day or two.

Edited by RoofGardener

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SOUL-DRIFTER

I believe China may step up and deal with the Kim monster they basically created.

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RoofGardener

Well... yeah.. but... how ?

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Thanato
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

I think they can.

NK artillery capability - like its "ICBM" capability - is hugely overestimated by the media, who are more interested in headlines than accuracy.

NK may have 13,000 artillery pieces (and multiple rocket launchers) on the border, but "only" around 1000 have the range to hit Seoul.

It should be possible to hit many of these "1000" almost simultaneously in a pre-emptive strike. The remainder may not even be aware that their brethren have been attacked, and would - for the most part - need to seek orders from the High Command in order to fire back. This would give ample time for multiple additional waves of attack against them.

It's also worth noting that the last time NK indulged in a an artillery attack, it didn't exactly distinguish itself, despite pre-planning and having both the element of surprise, and oodles of time to prepare and aim.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345

All in all, I would have hoped that a surprise attack by SK and US forces could damage and disorganise the NK long-range artillery on the border so badly within the first couple of waves that it would be unable to mount any kind of counterattack, and would be entirely wiped out within a day or two.

To under estimate your enemies ability and over estimate your ability is to invite death, destruction, and defeat.

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RoofGardener

True of

23 minutes ago, Thanato said:

To under estimate your enemies ability and over estimate your ability is to invite death, destruction, and defeat.

True of course. However, to avoid action for fear of a stubbed toe is to invite capitulation, surrender and humilation, along with the death of your allies and friends, and the pillage of your chocolate biscuits.

Edited by RoofGardener
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Farmer77

Trump says preemptive strike is on the table, China say ummm no 

 

Chinese paper says China should stay neutral if North Korea attacks first 

BEIJING (Reuters) - If North Korea launches an attack that threatens the United States then China should stay neutral, but if the United States attacks first and tries to overthrow North Korea's government China will stop them, a Chinese state-run newspaper said on Friday.

 

 

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RoofGardener

Actually, the article states that if NK attacks the USA... and the US retaliates .. then China will remain neutral.

In other words, they won't stop the US from retaliating.

Now, in regards the US/SK making a pre-emptive strike, what - exactly - would China DO about it ? I mean, if the US/SK where stupid enough to attempt a full-blown land invasion, then obviously China could simply send its own troops into the peninsula. But I really can't imagine SK/US actually DOING that. I mean.... even if the Chinese wheren't on the doorstep (and the Russians, lets not forget). would they really WANT an occupied North Korea ? I mean.. what USE would it be ?

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Farmer77
Just now, RoofGardener said:

Actually, the article states that if NK attacks the USA... and the US retaliates .. then China will remain neutral.

In other words, they won't stop the US from retaliating.

Now, in regards the US/SK making a pre-emptive strike, what - exactly - would China DO about it ? I mean, if the US/SK where stupid enough to attempt a full-blown land invasion, then obviously China could simply send its own troops into the peninsula. But I really can't imagine SK/US actually DOING that. I mean.... even if the Chinese wheren't on the doorstep (and the Russians, lets not forget). would they really WANT an occupied North Korea ? I mean.. what USE would it be ?

Well, we're freaking out cuz lil kim maybe has a sorta nuclear weapon, China for real has nukes. This basically takes the regime change that our alphabet agencies want off the table for us , and absolutely means we wont be doing any somali aspirin factory type bombing for effect. 

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Gromdor
25 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Actually, the article states that if NK attacks the USA... and the US retaliates .. then China will remain neutral.

In other words, they won't stop the US from retaliating.

Now, in regards the US/SK making a pre-emptive strike, what - exactly - would China DO about it ? I mean, if the US/SK where stupid enough to attempt a full-blown land invasion, then obviously China could simply send its own troops into the peninsula. But I really can't imagine SK/US actually DOING that. I mean.... even if the Chinese wheren't on the doorstep (and the Russians, lets not forget). would they really WANT an occupied North Korea ? I mean.. what USE would it be ?

You forget.  Because of China's one child policy, there are 2 million men of military age that will won't get wives.  What do you do with those men?

I can think of something that would make them look like heros while changing the Korean peninsula ethnically Chinese.....

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RoofGardener

I can only re-iterate that I agree about invasion. If the SK/USA where silly enough to physically invade, then all SORTS of things might happen.

But, you see, they don't NEED to. They can just blow up a lot of NK's obvious military emplacements, with special reference to the long-range artillery on the border, and perhaps some of the medium-range missile sites. Having done that, they can all go back home again. The NK threat against SK would have been significantly reduced, and Kim would have had a big slap in the face, which might teach him to moderate his language in future, if nothing else.

It would all be over within a few days. What could the Chinese do in that time ? What would they WANT to do ? Non of their vital interests are threatened. There would be no foreign troops on the ground in NK. Just a lot of broken artillery pieces.

Edited by RoofGardener
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