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House-sized asteroid 'will not hit Earth'

16 posts in this topic

 

Only a matter of time. Hopefully the systems of the future will alter the course, or destroy inbound asteroids.

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House sized? that's tiny, probably burn up in the atmosphere if it were to hit.

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1 hour ago, seanjo said:

House sized? that's tiny, probably burn up in the atmosphere if it were to hit.

At 20m across it is almost exactly the same size as the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013, injuring over 1400 people. 

In other words it is neither tiny nor would it simply burn up in the atmosphere 

 

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Distance is around the diameter of the Earth, that's pretty close. 

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5 hours ago, Sundew said:

Distance is around the diameter of the Earth, that's pretty close. 

Further than that by about 3.45 x  and 2399 miles further again than the earths circumference.

Diameter of Earth           =     7917  miles

Circumference of Earth  =  24901 miles

Distance to asteroid       =  27300  miles

Still it might seem close to some, but not close enough for others. 

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11 hours ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

At 20m across it is almost exactly the same size as the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013, injuring over 1400 people. 

In other words it is neither tiny nor would it simply burn up in the atmosphere 

 

The Chelyabinsk meteor broke up with an explosive force at about 30k's above ground, only small pieces reached earth. The injuries occurred as a result of the shockwave from the explosive breakup. There was no destructive impact...

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Posted (edited)

'supposed to'

A lot of things can happen in space to nudge an object a few thousand miles. Plasma storms... other interplanetary objects...

We really have to get a system in place to blast these things right out of the sky leaving just a few small fragments.

Edited by Nzo
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6 hours ago, seanjo said:

The Chelyabinsk meteor broke up with an explosive force at about 30k's above ground, only small pieces reached earth. The injuries occurred as a result of the shockwave from the explosive breakup. There was no destructive impact...

Guess it depends on what you define as "impact."  It did impact the atmosphere and it was destructive as it damaged over 7,200 buildings and collapsed a factory roof along with injuring people.  A shockwave, whether in the from an ground impact or in the atmosphere alone, is still an impact and it can cause damage either way.  Asteroid 2012 TC4 is nothing to take lightly even at its size and can cause even more damage than the Chelyabinsk event as it's likely a bigger asteroid.

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The likeliest distance of closest approach was changed from about 55,000 miles to around 31,000, when they reacquired the object recently. That was a notable jump, all in just one day. Provided there are no further radical changes, this probably indicates observation or calculation errors, unanticipated effects on the object, such as it emitting comet like jets, or encounters with other small objects.   

Edited by bison
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14 hours ago, Nzo said:

'supposed to'

A lot of things can happen in space to nudge an object a few thousand miles. Plasma storms... other interplanetary objects...

We really have to get a system in place to blast these things right out of the sky leaving just a few small fragments.

As long as an asteroid misses the Earth there is really no reason to do anything. "Blasting" the thing might be counter productive as it might result in many more asteroids hitting the Earth, increasing the chance of hitting populated areas. The best thing to do about an asteroid like this is nothing.

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19 hours ago, taniwha said:

Further than that by about 3.45 x  and 2399 miles further again than the earths circumference.

Diameter of Earth           =     7917  miles

Circumference of Earth  =  24901 miles

Distance to asteroid       =  27300  miles

Still it might seem close to some, but not close enough for others. 

Guess I was thinking of the circumference.

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On 8/13/2017 at 8:55 AM, seanjo said:

The Chelyabinsk meteor broke up with an explosive force at about 30k's above ground, only small pieces reached earth. The injuries occurred as a result of the shockwave from the explosive breakup. There was no destructive impact...

And your point is?

What you said was factually incorrect.

The Chelyabinsk meteor was not so tiny that it burned up on the atmosphere. Only small pieces reached the ground because it exploded NOT because it burned up. The same thing happened at Tunguska, do you consider that tiny too?

This asteroid is the same size as Chelyabinsk.

Chelyabinsk demonstrated categorically that objects this size present a threat to life and property. 

No amount of goal post moving will change that fact that your claim was wrong.

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On 8/14/2017 at 1:36 AM, bison said:

The likeliest distance of closest approach was changed from about 55,000 miles to around 31,000, when they reacquired the object recently. That was a notable jump, all in just one day. Provided there are no further radical changes, this probably indicates observation or calculation errors, unanticipated effects on the object, such as it emitting comet like jets, or encounters with other small objects.   

Nope it represents nothing of the sort.

It represents the fact that more observations lead to a refinement of the orbital parameters. The orbit can be determined more precisely. 

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On 8/13/2017 at 11:18 AM, Nzo said:

We really have to get a system in place to blast these things right out of the sky leaving just a few small fragments.

I do not think it is as easy as that, contrary to what you may have watched on Star Wars, sending a rocket into space to blast anything right out of the sky is timely,  costly, needs preparation and is extremely dangerous.

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41 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

Nope it represents nothing of the sort.

It represents the fact that more observations lead to a refinement of the orbital parameters. The orbit can be determined more precisely. 

To back that up:

Quote

During the 2012 close approach, the asteroid only had an observation arc of 7 days, between October 4, 2012, and October 11, 2012, so the exact distance of the 2017 closest approach was poorly constrained. With the 7 day observation arc, the asteroid had a 3-sigma chance of passing between 0.00008818 and 0.002896 AU (0.034 to 1.127 LD, 13,200–433,200 km, 8,200-269,200 mi) from Earth on October 12, 2017.

arrow3.gif  Read More: wikipedia

No errors needed, no jets needed, None of bison's theories needed. More observations WERE needed.

Edited by Waspie_Dwarf
added source for quote.

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