Hurricane Irma aims at Florida, Carribean

[+susieice]

5 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Umm..... surely they've had hurricanes of this magnitude many times before ? Why are they suddenly devastated ? What has changed ? 

This is one of the worst storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. Not a meteorologist, but there's something about this particular storm that made it extremely destructive. It's really huge.

[+susieice]

I would think the amount of time an area is under the effect of a storm would have a lot to do with how much destruction is done. That's what happened in Houston. Harvey was a hurricane like many others, but Harvey stayed in one area dumping rain for a week. Irma seems to be large and strong enough that it takes a day and a half for her to pass over an area. That's a long time to sustain high 185 mph winds and pouring rain. I really don't know. Florida is already experiencing the early effects of Irma and she isn't supposed to get there until sometime late tomorrow afternoon. I really don't know.

[RavenHawk]

7 hours ago, Odin11 said:

I find it funny that you're trying to tell a person with a degree in geology

<double face palm>  Not funny, just sad.  Maybe it’s not too late to get your money back??

 

how you think the islands of the Caribbean where formed. It's cute.

It’s a bit more than what I think.  Just because I didn’t start out with plate tectonics doesn’t mean I don’t know how they were created.  I’m talking about how they are being sculptured.

 

The islands are made up of some of the hardest rock types on earth, hurricane shaping is superficial at best.

Yes, a hurricane is pretty superficial to that, but given hundreds of thousands of years of hurricanes, even the hardest rock is no match against rain, wind, storm serge and just plain force.

 

Plus I never said it wasn't the Bermuda high that controls its path, but that the path just happens to be between the islands and the main land.   

That’s right you didn’t because you weren’t listening to what I was saying.  There are paths and currents all through the islands.  Hurricanes form anywhere.  We see that with Harvey and Irma.  But if you get a land mass vs a hurricane path, over time, that land mass will loose.  The Florida Straits has the shape it does because Hurricanes have passed that way for a long time.  As a geologist, you of anyone should be thinking geologically (time scale).  You ever wonder why most of the Bahamas are under water?  Cuba will probably look the same in time.  The northern coast already does.

 

You actually believe this don't you. I'm not the one ignoring the vast majority of science on climate change. But go ahead and keep believing the people being paid by oil and coal companies. Projection at its best.

Yes, it is projection – on your part.  So it’s the evil oil and coal companies that are anti-Anthropomorphic.  It couldn’t be that they are still interested in the skepticism of science?  They still use science.  Who are you bought and pay for by?  A manipulative ideology?  If you want to create a thread about the evils of the oil and coal companies then do so.  Let’s not derail this thread.  Let’s get back to watching as the reports come in.

[+susieice]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-florida-cuba-latest-news/

[Uncle Sam]

9 hours ago, Odin11 said:

I find it funny that you're trying to tell a person with a degree in geology how you think the islands of the Caribbean where formed. It's cute. The islands are made up of some of the hardest rock types on earth, hurricane shaping is superficial at best. Plus I never said it wasn't the Bermuda high that controls its path, but that the path just happens to be between the islands and the main land.   

You actually believe this don't you. I'm not the one ignoring the vast majority of science on climate change. But go ahead and keep believing the people being paid by oil and coal companies. Projection at its best.

A trickling stream can turn into a raging river over 100's of thousands of years from now. Just like the islands that are there, they are shaped by 125+ mile per hour winds and water, this creates a superfast erosion and weathering that whittles and/or breaks away at landmass. Just like the rocky mountains contain the air current in the plains area, the gulf can easily funnel hurricanes to areas consistently unless it is a extremely powerful hurricane, then it wouldn't matter what kind of landmass you put in front of it. Landmass does effect the size and scope of the hurricane; a simple action of hurricane hitting land can easily downgrade it. This is the reason we don't see hurricanes traveling far into the continent.

Here is a children's video to explain it to you...

Summary: The more hurricanes that appear in the gulf, the easier it becomes for the hurricanes to maintain their power due to weathering and erosion of landmasses, not to mention landmass and air current funnels the hurricanes consistently towards certain areas in the gulf.

Here is another video that explains hurricanes...

Basically when you talking about natural disasters, you have to take in lots of factors, even factors that doesn't even seem to be connected when in reality it is.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Uncle Sam

[+susieice]

Tornado warnings are already being issued.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ173&warncounty=FLC086&firewxzone=FLZ074&local_place1=Homestead+AFB+FL&product1=Tornado+Warning#.WbQfMcwrL3A

[Colt Storm]

A few years ago a friend of mine in Fla told me her family didn't worry about hurricanes there, they were used to them and were never as bad as the media hype reported them.

Wonder how she feels now....

[Uncle Sam]

7 minutes ago, susieice said:

Tornado warnings are already being issued.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ173&warncounty=FLC086&firewxzone=FLZ074&local_place1=Homestead+AFB+FL&product1=Tornado+Warning#.WbQfMcwrL3A

Doesn't surprise me. Powerful hot air current from hurricanes meeting cold arctic currents from the north super charges tornadoes inland, much like hot air currents from the south equator mixing with the cold air from the arctic in the plains that is funneled thanks to the rocky mountains.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Uncle Sam

[RavenHawk]

2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Umm..... surely they've had hurricanes of this magnitude many times before ? Why are they suddenly devastated ? What has changed ? 

There are more people, more development.  Detection and tracking today is real time.  And time scale.  People living today weren’t around the last time.  Recorded history on hurricanes doesn’t go back that far.  The last time something really active happened was perhaps in the 1920s.  In 1926 a cat 3 hurricane (I think it wasn’t until recently that they actually confirmed that it was a cat 3 because of the limited detection capabilities of the day) drove up the Mississippi, creating massive destruction and caused major flooding going into 1927.  This was the event that created the federal levee system.  If this happened with the population we have now, millions would have perished.  The next time goes back to the 17^th Century.  We have the stories of Spanish Galleons being lost in storms left and right.  Those storms could only have been hurricanes.  We are just now beginning to appreciate the power of this aspect of nature.

[LucidElement]

Hey guys,

I am from South Florida, and I was lucky enough to head out and make land in New York City. However, this storm is going to be so catastrophic it's insane. It is the largest hurricane ever formed in the Atlantic Ocean. The eye of the storm is about 70 ro 80 miles wide, which is about the state of North Carolina, and the hurricane itself is the size of Texas.

 

The storm is already blowing outside our area, which around Palm Beach. However the storm itself, the eye is still in Cuba. The bands of this storm are insane.

 

 

[Dark_Grey]

This thing is projected to steamroll Florida with that size. Mother Nature is really hammering us on multiple fronts... 

[+and-then]

If it keeps heading west, I'm going to get nervous !

[aka CAT]

Floridians,

May you have heeded evacuation warnings.  I pray you are now and will remain safe.

UPDATE:

Irma, after pounding Cuba, was downgraded to a category 3 hurricane.  Regaining strength, she was predicted a few hours ago to soon become a category 4.  According to the National Hurricane Center*, she is now headed NW toward the Florida Keys.  Eventually, the hurricane is expected to mainly move North along the Western coast of Florida where surges will be highest, e.g. 

Hurricane Irma Live Updates: West Coast of Florida in Cross Hairs ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/09/us/hurricane-irma-...Proxy  Highlight

4 hours ago ... Southwest Florida could see a storm surge of 15 feet above ground level

&

Irma begins to batter Florida with powerful winds; tornadoes ...

abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-irma-forecast-strike-flor...Proxy  Highlight

4 hours ago ... WATCH Hurricane Irma prompts mass evacuations in Florida ...

north and head up the western coast of Florida, making landfall on Sunday. ...

ABC News meteorologists are forecasting storm surges of 10 feet in Tampa and ...

*

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone

Edited September 10, 2017 by aka CAT

[Why not]

I live on one of the barrier islands in Pinellas County, FL.  We hight tailed it to Dothen, AL. Yesterday. I'm not expecting much when I get back.   That's life.

[Grandpa Greenman]

I'm in SW Florida, Ft Myers area.  I'm a 3 blocks outside the mandatory evacuation zones.  I'm not on an Island, so I should be ok.   It is going to be a long day of waiting for this thing to move through.   I hate the house shuttered up, can't tell day or night.  Someday I'll going to get a couple of those clear plastic shutters that let in some light.  I don't care where you live there is some kind of risk. 

[Why not]

25 minutes ago, Grandpa Greenman said:

I'm in SW Florida, Ft Myers area.  I'm a 3 blocks outside the mandatory evacuation zones.  I'm not on an Island, so I should be ok.   It is going to be a long day of waiting for this thing to move through.   I hate the house shuttered up, can't tell day or night.  Someday I'll going to get a couple of those clear plastic shutters that let in some light.  I don't care where you live there is some kind of risk. 

Stay safe.  Good luck.

[RavenHawk]

10 hours ago, Why not said:

I live on one of the barrier islands in Pinellas County, FL.  We hight tailed it to Dothen, AL. Yesterday. I'm not expecting much when I get back.   That's life.

Just got off the phone with the in-laws.  They live near 22nd Ave N and 49th st in St Petes.  That is the high ground and their home is made of cinder block with heavy shutters.  They are hunkering down and have plenty of food and water.  Mandatory curfew goes into effect at 1700.  I have a feeling we'll be checking in throughout the day.  We've spent a lot of time at various condos on the barrier Islands during vacations.  I've grown to love the area.  We're hearing that the bay is draining and the tide along the gulf side is pulling out.  The storm serge is going to be beyond devastating.  Kind of wondering if John's Pass is going to get wiped out or if a new pass will be opened up?  How many buildings are going to be lost?

Edited September 10, 2017 by RavenHawk

[Grandpa Greenman]

Doing the traditional hurricane thing, cooking anything in the freezer before I lose power.   Dogs have had their last outside poop and pee, until it blows over. 

[+susieice]

Stay safe everyone. This is going to be a long two days.

[+susieice]

People are truly no good. What kind of nuts are these?

https://www.local10.com/weather/hurricane-irma/looting-incidents-reported-in-fort-lauderdale-during-irma

[aka CAT]

According to The National Hurricane Center's projections, the eye of Irma is nearing Naples.  Update below:

...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...CENTER OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA NEARING NAPLES...

3:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 Location: 25.7°N 81.8°W Moving: N at 12 mph Min pressure: 936 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

6 hours ago, Grandpa Greenman said:

I'm in SW Florida, Ft Myers area.  I'm a 3 blocks outside the mandatory evacuation zones.  I'm not on an Island, so I should be ok.   It is going to be a long day of waiting for this thing to move through.   I hate the house shuttered up, can't tell day or night.  Someday I'll going to get a couple of those clear plastic shutters that let in some light.  I don't care where you live there is some kind of risk. 

May you be doing the right thing, because, so long as Irma stays over water, the "Max sustained [winds]: 120 mph" won't be reduced.

From what I gather from/about the rest of your fellow Floridians whom were mentioned, most are further/safer from immediate danger than are you.

I pray everyone escape harm.

 

 

Edited September 10, 2017 by aka CAT

[+susieice]

Hearing now that downtown Miami is flooded. The concern is the amount of water being sucked out of the bays. It will return in a violent rush of surge that will flood quickly and fiercely. Stay in and stay safe. Eyewall about to hit Naples.

[aka CAT]

3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

Just got off the phone with the in-laws.  They live near 22nd Ave N and 49th st in St Petes.  That is the high ground and their home is made of cinder block with heavy shutters.  They are hunkering down and have plenty of food and water.  Mandatory curfew goes into effect at 1700.  I have a feeling we'll be checking in throughout the day.  We've spent a lot of time at various condos on the barrier Islands during vacations.  I've grown to love the area.  We're hearing that the bay is draining and the tide along the gulf side is pulling out.  The storm serge is going to be beyond devastating.  Kind of wondering if John's Pass is going to get wiped out or if a new pass will be opened up?  How many buildings are going to be lost?

 I guess they returned to where their son was looking after their animals.  They'd best be beyond the storm surge.  I pray they stay safe.

[+susieice]

Watching CNN live in Naples at the moment. Visibility is at zero. Winds are really intensifying. Can't believe this reporter is still outside. He says he's on a hotel balcony. The one reporting on the ground looks to be knee deep in water.

[+susieice]

Here's a posting from CNN reporters in Naples.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/09/us/hurricane-irma-florida-latest/?l