Las Vegas Strip Shooting

[pallidin]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/05/us/las-vegas-shooting-investigation/index.html

 

"Investigators said something may have happened to Paddock between October 2016 and last month that compelled him to purchase more weapons. Paddock bought 33 firearms, mostly rifles, during that period, an ATF spokesperson said.

A note was found in Paddock's Mandalay Bay hotel room, but it was not a suicide note, the sheriff said.

He did not detail what the note said.

 

No evidence indicates terrorism, FBI special agent Aaron Rouse said, but the investigation is ongoing."

[docyabut2]

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/10/05/report-las-vegas-gunman-stephen-paddocks-brother-threatened-to-kill-friend/23234179/

new theory

[Dark_Grey]

1 hour ago, F3SS said:

Maybe they were spent guns. Maybe he didn’t take much time to get them out. 

See:

1 hour ago, aztek said:

there was very little brass on the floor for thousands rounds fired

Do you know how many rounds you could bring in a duffle bag of magazines instead of a duffle bag full of rifles? The excuse that he brought armful of rifles cause "it's easier to pick up and keep firing" sounds exactly like something my wife would say because, bless her heart, she knows nothing about guns. There are so many logical inconsistencies in that pic of his room that interest me much more than a second shooter. Why weren't the guns piled by the window? Was he planning on walking across the room, picking up a rifle off the floor and walking back to the window? Terrible, terrible set up for what he was trying to accomplish.

[Dark_Grey]

6 minutes ago, pallidin said:

He did not detail what the note said.

It had to be a manifesto. "I want to kill X because of Y." If it's not going to endanger someone else, please make the note public. It may lay to rest a lot of speculation and harmful assumptions.

[Kismit]

10 minutes ago, Dark_Grey said:

See:

Do you know how many rounds you could bring in a duffle bag of magazines instead of a duffle bag full of rifles? The excuse that he brought armful of rifles cause "it's easier to pick up and keep firing" sounds exactly like something my wife would say because, bless her heart, she knows nothing about guns. There are so many logical inconsistencies in that pic of his room that interest me much more than a second shooter. Why weren't the guns piled by the window? Was he planning on walking across the room, picking up a rifle off the floor and walking back to the window? Terrible, terrible set up for what he was trying to accomplish.

He had also taken more guns than he could ever possibly use. Loaded his car with explosives( most likely because he thought he could do something with that later,when he escaped).

He wasn't thinking straight, he wasn't some genius planner. That's more obvious than anything else. I do believe trying to think sane thoughts for an insane individual is madness.

[Dark_Grey]

Just now, Kismit said:

I do believe trying to think sane thoughts for an insane individual is madness.

Funny, that same thought was running through the back of my mind as I punched out those speculations. Nothing more frustrating than wanting answers you can't have when you're afraid. We live in a weird time

[Lilly]

IMO the authorities need to reveal a lot of more of what they know. If the note found in the hotel room and various other evidence even hints at a motive then the public needs to know exactly what's what. The Las Vegas authorities are saying it's very likely that Mr Paddock had help. This 'help' is obviously still free and people could be in danger. The public needs to know the truth in order to make informed decisions.

[Lilly]

2 minutes ago, Kismit said:

He had also taken more guns than he could ever possibly use. Loaded his car with explosives( most likely because he thought he could do something with that later,when he escaped).

 

If he thought he was going to have an accomplice in the shooting then extra guns would make more sense.

[Kismit]

Just now, Lilly said:

IMO the authorities need to reveal a lot of more of what they know. If the note found in the hotel room and various other evidence even hints at a motive then the public needs to know exactly what's what. The Las Vegas authorities are saying it's very likely that Mr Paddock had help. This 'help' is obviously still free and people could be in danger. The public needs to know the truth in order to make informed decisions.

What if the note was written for an accomplice? What if the note holds clues that could implicate someone else? 

What if the note has sensitive information in regards to the case or a different case? 

There are many reasons the public isn't given all of the information. Just look at how we all spout off opinions. That's enough to muddy the waters of an investigation.

Maybe one day they will reveal the note but it's early days yet.

[Kismit]

2 minutes ago, Lilly said:

If he thought he was going to have an accomplice in the shooting then extra guns would make more sense.

Im not sure I understand.

My point was that the man wasn't sane. Trying to understand why he set things out the way he did doesn't work from a normal level of thinking.

[Lilly]

I'm just hoping that by not releasing information it doesn't lead to people not being aware of the risks involved. For example, let's say the authorities know that Mr Paddock utterly despised country music (this is only an example and not meant to be probable). So, droves of people still opt to go out to large country music venues, one of which is then attacked by Mr Paddock's accomplice (who also utterly despises country music). See what I mean?

[Lilly]

3 minutes ago, Kismit said:

Im not sure I understand.

My point was that the man wasn't sane. Trying to understand why he set things out the way he did doesn't work from a normal level of thinking.

We currently don't know if there was, or was not, a method behind how he set things up. We don't even know if others were involved or what the motive or end game may have been.

[Kismit]

11 minutes ago, Lilly said:

I'm just hoping that by not releasing information it doesn't lead to people not being aware of the risks involved. For example, let's say the authorities know that Mr Paddock utterly despised country music (this is only an example and not meant to be probable). So, droves of people still opt to go out to large country music venues, one of which is then attacked by Mr Paddock's accomplice (who also utterly despises country music). See what I mean?

It's a possible scenario but I think in that case the Authorities would issue warnings. That can still be done without revealing all the information.

Also security would be beefed up. Hotels would be visited by Police. Concert organisers would be spoken to. Public safety is usually a priority.

[Lilly]

I sincerely hope public safety is the absolute priority (verses PC correctness or political motivation). However, I'm not totally convinced this is the case.

[Kismit]

1 minute ago, Lilly said:

We currently don't know if there was, or was not, a method behind how he set things up. We don't even know if others were involved or what the motive or end game may have been.

Based on what we do know.

The man planned a mass shooting

The man commited a mass shooting

These are not the acts of a mentally stable human being, no matter what his motivation.

Also I did do a pretty decent analysis earlier on possible motive. It was boring, made sense, and pulled on the facts about the shooters personalty. It still ties in with what's coming out. I'm going to stand by the idea that the guy is a one off, mentally unstable, big noter, who wanted to be noticed. Deluded into thinking he was not being treated with the grand respect he thought he was owed.

[Michelle]

13 minutes ago, Kismit said:

Also security would be beefed up. Hotels would be visited by Police. Concert organisers would be spoken too. Public safety is usually a priority.

We have a huge eight day music festival in town every year in June. Many different stages and all kinds of music. They are already talking about having helicopters with snipers at the ready. There are more nuts out there and we already know that.

Edited October 5, 2017 by Michelle

[pallidin]

5 minutes ago, Kismit said:

Based on what we do know...

These are not the acts of a mentally stable human being, no matter what his motivation.

True indeed.

[Kismit]

 Based on what we know and what we have been told.

He is a white middle to older aged gentelman, his partner of 6 months was overseas at the time and he sent her substantial money before the shooting.

We were told by the media that he is a multimillionaire property developer. This bit is the most interesting for me. Another analysis put his financial worth at $1.8 million. That's actually not hugely rich, his debts to cash flow would be interesting to look at.He gambled at bets in the thousands. 

We were told he was a multimillionaire and yet the picture of his home that is shown on the news is pretty standard.

I think the information we have seen come out would indicate definate delusions of grandeur.

Possibly debt, I wonder what his insurance was like. 

[Kismit]

10 minutes ago, Michelle said:

We have a huge eight day music festival in town every year in June. Many different stages and all kinds of music. They are already talking about having helicopters with snipers at the ready. There are more nuts out there and we already know that.

Yes. Public safety is generally the priority.

[Dark_Grey]

4 minutes ago, Kismit said:

 Based on what we know and what we have been told.

He is a white middle to older aged gentelman, his partner of 6 months was overseas at the time and he sent her substantial money before the shooting.

We were told by the media that he is a multimillionaire property developer. This bit is the most interesting for me. Another analysis put his financial worth at $1.8 million. That's actually not hugely rich, his debts to cash flow would be interesting to look at.He gambled at bets in the thousands. 

We were told he was a multimillionaire and yet the picture of his home that is shown on the news is pretty standard.

I think the information we have seen come out would indicate definate delusions of grandeur.

Possibly debt, I wonder what his insurance was like. 

Wasn't he a self-made millionaire through gambling and real estate? A standard house doesn't mean he was broke, lots of cheap/thrifty millionaires around. "Delusions of grandeur" to me would mean flashy cars and living well outside of his actual means. We also know he had a history of alcoholism, bad enough that it cost him his last few relationships. There is a base of some mental instability to start with...who knows what went wrong between then and now.

[Why not]

13 hours ago, aztek said:

there was very little brass on the floor for thousands rounds fired, there are  video from taxi cab, and you can distinctly hear shot fired from different locations, some are close, others far , possibly higher up. there was no shoot out with cops,  so who was firing in multiple locations?

I was also thinking there was little to no brass on the floor in the picture with him lying on the floor. As for the sounds of gun fire from the taxi, it is clearly echos off buildings. Listen and the shot patterns match.

[pallidin]

13 minutes ago, Kismit said:

 We were told he was a multimillionaire and yet the picture of his home that is shown on the news is pretty standard.

http://time.com/money/4969462/las-vegas-shooter-stephen-paddock-gambler-real-estate-guns/

Paddock had two planes, owned multiple homes, and regularly dropped tens of thousands of dollars in Vegas casinos, according to recent reports.

His shocking collections of guns and ammunition alone may have cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

[Kismit]

9 minutes ago, Dark_Grey said:

Wasn't he a self-made millionaire through gambling and real estate? A standard house doesn't mean he was broke, lots of cheap/thrifty millionaires around. "Delusions of grandeur" to me would mean flashy cars and living well outside of his actual means. We also know he had a history of alcoholism, bad enough that it cost him his last few relationships. There is a base of some mental instability to start with...who knows what went wrong between then and now.

Only he wasn't a cheap thrifty millionaire. Look at the room he rented. And yes lots of selfmade millionaires like this around. It's an enviable amount of money but it isn't actually huge. If his wealth is calculated using assetts. He could well have been gambling money he had borrowed against equity. That's money he still didn't actually have. The only stories that came out where his bragging about his wins. His giving money away. I wouldn't discount the fact he was secretly spiraling out of control for quite some time.

I would like to know what his cash flow to debt looked like.

Also he had alcohol and gambling problems and was prescribed diazepam. That's a man out of control.

[pallidin]

13 minutes ago, Why not said:

I was also thinking there was little to no brass on the floor in the picture with him lying on the floor. As for the sounds of gun fire from the taxi, it is clearly echos off buildings. Listen and the shot patterns match.

The pictures I saw showed a substantial amount of shell casings on the floor.

Here's one...

Edited October 5, 2017 by pallidin

[Kismit]

13 minutes ago, pallidin said:

http://time.com/money/4969462/las-vegas-shooter-stephen-paddock-gambler-real-estate-guns/

Paddock had two planes, owned multiple homes, and regularly dropped tens of thousands of dollars in Vegas casinos, according to recent reports.

His shocking collections of guns and ammunition alone may have cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Yes. If his wealth is calculated on assets.

Financial position is calculated at Assets, plus income, less debt.

so if his jets are worth $200,000 each and his homes worth $400,000 each. That's most of his wealth calculated already and no actual cash.That does not mean he is making money off them. The investment properties may well be paying for themselves or be negatively geared so he was losing money on them for tax breaks.

What was his actual income? How much real money did he have? How much equity and pretend money did he gamble with.