China's space station will crash to Earth

[seeder]

Quote

 

China's out-of-control space station will crash to Earth within MONTHS, and no one knows where the debris will land

    Pieces weighing up to 100kg could make it to the surface of Earth
    Tiangong-1 is China's first space station launched in September 2011
    But the Chinese space agency lost control of the spacecraft-1 in 2016
    Experts predict it will crash back to Earth between October 2017 and April 2018

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4977568/China-s-space-station-crash-Earth-MONTHS.html#ixzz4vOwu1pwc

 

 

[Black Monk]

The ISS is constantly falling back to Earth. Fortunately, its sideways momentum means it keeps missing the planet. It is known as an "orbit."

Edited October 14, 2017 by Black Monk

[Jon the frog]

It was not there to stay long, just a temporary testing facility until they bring their true station. It's not surprising, it was more or less made to do that soon. Tiangong-1 was made to be deorbited in 2013... probably no fuel left now to do a controlled fall.

 

Edited October 14, 2017 by Jon the frog

[Adampadum123]

Dam you China

[Grandpa Greenman]

If it lands in my yard it's mine. 

[Parsec]

6 hours ago, Grandpa Greenman said:

If it lands in my yard it's mine. 

It's more probably it will own you (and your yard and house)! 

[Parsec]

On 14/10/2017 at 3:03 PM, Black Monk said:

The ISS is constantly falling back to Earth. Fortunately, its sideways momentum means it keeps missing the planet. It is known as an "orbit."

Thank you for the lesson, but your point is? 

[paperdyer]

Why doesn't China shot it down so they know where it will crash, like in the middle of nowhere in the ocean or in their desert?  They have one, right?

[Waspie_Dwarf]

1 hour ago, paperdyer said:

Why doesn't China shot it down so they know where it will crash, like in the middle of nowhere in the ocean or in their desert?  They have one, right?

"Shooting down" doesn't work in orbit.

A missile would destroy the Tiangong-1, causing it to fragment. The fragments wouldn't just drop from the sky, they would continue to orbit in more or less the same path that the station did.These fragments would slowly dissipate, filling the orbital plane of the station. Whilst these smaller fragments would, potentially, reduce the risk on the ground (which, incidentally, is negligible) it would be a total menace.

Because the fragments are smaller than the Tiangong-1, they will generate less drag with the tenuous atmosphere at orbital altitude, so they will stay in orbit longer. Larger fragments may still, potentially reach the ground, but you now have multiple objects. The fragments would hugely increase the chances of collisions with operational satellites. These, in turn could fragment causing a larger and larger risk of collision. This is known as the cascade effect. The worst case scenario is that low earth orbit can't be used for several years.

What's more, you still wouldn't know, in advance, exactly where these fragments would land.

[taniwha]

Surely someone can come up with a solution to stop it hitting earth, surely

Or surely not?

Thank God it's not an asteroid.

[Peter B]

15 hours ago, taniwha said:

Surely someone can come up with a solution to stop it hitting earth, surely

Or surely not?

Thank God it's not an asteroid.

??

It's returning to the Earth as inevitably as a tennis ball you chuck in the air.

The only way to prevent it from returning to Earth is to accelerate it. The only way to make that happen is to attach a rocket to it and fire the rocket.

But there aren't any off-the-shelf rockets available to attach to Chinese space stations, and it would probably take a year or three to design, build, test and launch one. By that time it'll be a tad too late...

[Parsec]

On 16/10/2017 at 8:39 PM, paperdyer said:

Why doesn't China shot it down so they know where it will crash, like in the middle of nowhere in the ocean or in their desert?  They have one, right?

You haven't seen the movie Gravity, I suppose? 

[TripGun]

Accelerate it by opening the air lock...whoosh.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

1 hour ago, TripGun said:

Accelerate it by opening the air lock...whoosh.

Even if that would provide enough acceleration to make a difference, simple logic should tell you that If China had enough control of the Tiangong-1 so that they could precisely orientate it in such away that opening the air lock would accelerate it in the correct direction then China would have enough control of the space station that they wouldn't need to open the air lock in order to accelerate it in the first place.

[paperdyer]

19 hours ago, Parsec said:

You haven't seen the movie Gravity, I suppose? 

Yes, but other than extremely good CG I don't remember much about it other than the plot.

[paperdyer]

On ‎10‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 5:12 PM, Waspie_Dwarf said:

"Shooting down" doesn't work in orbit.

A missile would destroy the Tiangong-1, causing it to fragment. The fragments wouldn't just drop from the sky, they would continue to orbit in more or less the same path that the station did.These fragments would slowly dissipate, filling the orbital plane of the station. Whilst these smaller fragments would, potentially, reduce the risk on the ground (which, incidentally, is negligible) it would be a total menace.

Because the fragments are smaller than the Tiangong-1, they will generate less drag with the tenuous atmosphere at orbital altitude, so they will stay in orbit longer. Larger fragments may still, potentially reach the ground, but you now have multiple objects. The fragments would hugely increase the chances of collisions with operational satellites. These, in turn could fragment causing a larger and larger risk of collision. This is known as the cascade effect. The worst case scenario is that low earth orbit can't be used for several years.

What's more, you still wouldn't know, in advance, exactly where these fragments would land.

Seeing that we seem to have a wide area of concern for the space station to come down, is there any way for the US or another country with launching capabilities to nudge it somehow?  I know it can't be as simple as most SciFi movies make us think, but could it be tried?

[Essan]

There is at least a 70% it will break up/land over the oceans.  

But if it lands on the HQ of the Daily Fail, would anyone care?   

[ArcherSage]

Maybe it will land on North Korea

[Stiff]

只要它落在相当深的水中，我们应该是安全的。

[+Nuclear Wessel]

On 10/15/2017 at 5:03 AM, Parsec said:

It's more probably it will own you (and your yard and house)! 

It will probably own much more than just his house... I'm thinking a good number of houses/yards. That thing isn't really small.

[Sundew]

The good news is that 71% of the earth is covered in water, of the remaining 29% there are quite a few deserts, forests, plains, mountains, ice areas and so forth. A good percentage of the human populations are along the coasts and rivers, so there's a good chance of a miss for them. 

But just to be on the safe side I'm doubling my "things from outer space hitting your house" insurance. 

[godnodog]

great i�m in line of fire, lucky me

[seeder]

remember people, this isnt the first time something fell back to Earth

 

Quote

 

Skylab was the United States' first and only space station, orbiting Earth from 1973 to 1979, when it fell back to Earth amid huge worldwide media attention. Launched and operated by NASA, Skylab included a workshop, a solar observatory, and other systems necessary for crew survival and scientific experiments.

In the hours before re-entry, NASA ground controllers attempted to adjust Skylab's trajectory and orientation to try to minimize the risk of debris landing in populated areas.[3] NASA's attempted target was a spot 810 miles (1,300 km) south-southeast of Cape Town, South Africa. Skylab's atmospheric reentry began on July 11, 1979,[4] and people on earth and an airline pilot saw dozens of colorful firework-like flares as large pieces of the space station broke up in the atmosphere.[5] Skylab did not burn up as fast as NASA expected, and Skylab debris landed southeast of Perth in Western Australia, resulting in a debris path between Esperance and Rawlinna.[4] Over a single property in Esperance, 24 pieces of Skylab were found.[4][5] Analysis of some debris indicated that the Skylab station had disintegrated 10 mi (16 km) above the Earth, much lower than expected

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab

 

 

[Nzo]

This is another example of humans doing things wrong. Before anything is even put into space there should be a rigid, extensive and well thought out global rules that all nations need to follow. We should not be in fear of man made junk falling out of the sky and killing us, that goes for ice chunks from planes as well.

Such incredibly poor implementation of a proper controls and standards on this planet. So depressing... I think I am going to go have peanut butter, bannana granola before the space junk 'Possibly'drops from space and kills me.

[Timothy]

It will be interesting to see the potential crash area shrink. If the orbit is gradually degrading, surely they will get more accurate? 

Melbourne is in the strike zone at the moment. Hopefully the 3 levels of apartment above me are enough!

Is there a good website to track it?

Edit: http://www.satflare.com/track.php?q=37820

Hooray, it's currently heading east over NZ. Safe fr the moment.

 

Edited November 10, 2017 by Timonthy
Edit.