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Great Old Man

South Korean's Fear of War on 2018

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Great Old Man

 

Long time no See UM members,

Since I started UM on 2015, I didn't write much of articles.

 

But nowadays I feel some anxiety and fear of war on 2018.

 

I'm South Korean who live in Seoul.

 

Lots of Korean's do not aware of War Because they always become indifference to war(. as they got lots of tension of Korea)

 

But, now, situation changes, As North Korea will complete their nuclear weapon.(ICBM)

 

lots of news and media says  March, 2018, North Korea will complete their nuclear weapons

 

Then, USA  has to engage war because of dangerous possibility(nuclear strike of North Korea).

mystery gallery, which is the biggest mystery-related forum in Korea, Lots of members aware possibility of war and they try to anticipate exact war date.

 

What do you think about South Korea future?

 

Is will be peaceful? Or terrible massacre  happen?

 

Actually my Ancestor was lived in near of Pyongyang. he was devout Christian, So he ran away from Kim Jong il's holocaust (Kim Jong il' killed lots of Christian)

 

I'm worried, because I have no idea when war engaged. the duty that all Korean man should enter the war is another sad concern for me( I also got military training)

 

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Vlad the Mighty

It must be encouraging to see UN "Ambassador" Nikki Haley's paramount concern for what the people of S. Korea want. ("We don't care if South Korea might be open to talks, it's completely unacceptable to us if it means anything other than complete abandonment of N. Korea's nuclear program".) 

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Lilly

Many people say Trump is wrong to remind Kim Jong Un that the United States has more nuclear weapons than he does. I don't agree with those people. I think Kim wants to keep his power in the North and will do whatever he can to remain in control. If it's made clear to Kim that using nuclear weapons will only cause his own death and destruction then perhaps he will change his behavior and war will be avoided.

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Gromdor

Well, from my view point North Korea's plan is to develop and mass produce nuclear weapon to prevent a regime change like what we saw in Iraq and Libya.  They are pretty much at that point now.  Then they are going to use that leverage to open up negotiations with South Korea and try and drive a wedge between South Korea and the US while simultaneously trying to ease their sanction/economic woes.   Past that and it gets a little harder to predict. 

The US doesn't want North Korea to have nukes, wants it to be vulnerable so that regime change can happen on it's own or with a little US help, but at the same time I think that we like the status quo because it gives us an excuse for our military presence next to Russia and China.

  What we want hasn't really been happening so the idea of using military force is growing in popularity.  And not to be truly mean, but the people in the US would prefer to solve the problem with the bulk of the dying happening someplace far away before it can come close to home.

Having an unstable country like North Korea having intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles is a very bad thing.  (Heck anyone having intercontinental nuclear missiles is not a good thing).  That being said, I wouldn't worry until the US starts evacuating civilians from South Korea and Japan.

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FLOMBIE
6 minutes ago, Lilly said:

Many people say Trump is wrong to remind Kim Jong Un that the United States has more nuclear weapons than he does. I don't agree with those people. I think Kim wants to keep his power in the North and will do whatever he can to remain in control. If it's made clear to Kim that using nuclear weapons will only cause his own death and destruction then perhaps he will change his behavior and war will be avoided.

You think that is not clear to Kim? That is exactly why he is constantly saber rattling. 

 

As for South Korea, I think we will be fine @Great Old Man. There will be talks, and he will get something that will keep him in power.

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RAyMO
Posted (edited)

I think the recent postponement of battle games, N Korea interest in the upcoming winter games, and talks with S Korea, suggest possibly, hopefully, that we are moving into to  new phase in 2018 - when proper dialogue will replace - Nuclear Threats - Kim having been assured, by his generals,  rightly or wrongly, that N Korea has done enough to protect itself from external aggression.

Edited by RAyMO
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and then
53 minutes ago, Vlad the Mighty said:

It must be encouraging to see UN "Ambassador" Nikki Haley's paramount concern for what the people of S. Korea want. ("We don't care if South Korea might be open to talks, it's completely unacceptable to us if it means anything other than complete abandonment of N. Korea's nuclear program".) 

With the assistance of American blood and treasure beginning in the 50's, S.K. kept the boot off their neck and became one of the great success stories of Asia.  That's just a fact, Vlad.  Ascribe it to any furtive motive you care to, it's still a fact.  If Moon decides to unilaterally surrender to Kim then I'd love to see all our forces withdrawn immediately but that wouldn't stop us protecting ourselves from a criminal family/ thugocracy in Pyongyang.  I don't believe my country will precipitously launch an attack against Fat Rocket Man that would kill potentially millions of South Korean citizens but if he makes a move that is seen by our "intel" people as a real attempt to launch a nuke against us then it is our right to defend OUR people as well... no?  

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Vlad the Mighty

Don't you think if South Korea was on at least speaking terms, if not openly friendly relations, with Pyongang, the risk of Mad Rocket Man being suicidally insane enough to launch a first strike on the US would be reduced considerably? Or is that too subtle an idea for the Dear Leader to comprehend?

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Great Old Man
Posted (edited)

I think Korean government want to evade war because of economic loss. Friendly relation with North Korea is one of hot potato- issue in south korea.

Even a few people think that North Korea is not evil, and exactly in south, there is lots of unseen spies from North Korea.

But, I think Kim Jong eun's main goal is making peace treaty with USA, and remove USA troops from Korea.

Kim'Jong eun main goal is unfication under communism(actually totalitarianism). I really worried about this and my relatives(who ran away from Korea and became USA citizen) 

are aware of dangerous situation in Korea.

Kim' never launch a strike on the US because he knew that is suicide. Kim just want to make peace treaty with USA and want to invade South Korea.

Edited by Great Old Man

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Gromdor
12 hours ago, Great Old Man said:

I think Korean government want to evade war because of economic loss. Friendly relation with North Korea is one of hot potato- issue in south korea.

Even a few people think that North Korea is not evil, and exactly in south, there is lots of unseen spies from North Korea.

But, I think Kim Jong eun's main goal is making peace treaty with USA, and remove USA troops from Korea.

Kim'Jong eun main goal is unfication under communism(actually totalitarianism). I really worried about this and my relatives(who ran away from Korea and became USA citizen) 

are aware of dangerous situation in Korea.

Kim' never launch a strike on the US because he knew that is suicide. Kim just want to make peace treaty with USA and want to invade South Korea.

Something I wanted to ask a native of South Korea.  Do you trust the US to solve this problem?

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Peter B
On 1/7/2018 at 1:11 PM, Great Old Man said:

I think Korean government want to evade war because of economic loss. Friendly relation with North Korea is one of hot potato- issue in south korea.

Even a few people think that North Korea is not evil, and exactly in south, there is lots of unseen spies from North Korea.

But, I think Kim Jong eun's main goal is making peace treaty with USA, and remove USA troops from Korea.

Kim'Jong eun main goal is unfication under communism(actually totalitarianism). I really worried about this and my relatives(who ran away from Korea and became USA citizen) 

are aware of dangerous situation in Korea.

Kim' never launch a strike on the US because he knew that is suicide. Kim just want to make peace treaty with USA and want to invade South Korea.

With respect, Great Old Man, I think that if Kim Jong-un wanted to make peace with the USA and have it remove its troops from South Korea, he is going about it the wrong way.

Therefore, while Kim Jong-un may hope in the very long term to be able to invade South Korea without threat of American retaliation, I do not think he is planning for this at the moment. Instead, I think his plans at the moment are about ensuring the security of his own regime against an American first strike - that if America attacks North Korea first then he will be able to launch a deadly second strike against America.

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Great Old Man
Posted (edited)
On 2018. 1. 8. at 0:05 AM, Gromdor said:

Something I wanted to ask a native of South Korea.  Do you trust the US to solve this problem?

I trust the USA. USA is only hope that can stop North Korea.  However, I am always aware of possibility that the USA gave up Korea peninsular's crisis.

If the USA withdraw their troops from South Korea, our country will confront serious crisis.

I heard that, some of the USA politicians and diplomacy experts argue that  the USA have to withdraw their troops from ROK.

As you know, Korea government has little power to change North Korea regime. Futhermore, lots of North Korea spies hide in South Korea. (Similar as Vietnam)

South Korea never solve this problem alone. Only the USA can handle this situation.

Edited by Great Old Man
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Great Old Man
19 minutes ago, Peter B said:

With respect, Great Old Man, I think that if Kim Jong-un wanted to make peace with the USA and have it remove its troops from South Korea, he is going about it the wrong way.

Therefore, while Kim Jong-un may hope in the very long term to be able to invade South Korea without threat of American retaliation, I do not think he is planning for this at the moment. Instead, I think his plans at the moment are about ensuring the security of his own regime against an American first strike - that if America attacks North Korea first then he will be able to launch a deadly second strike against America.

Yes, I also agree that Kim jong-un's main goal is protecting his regime from America. I hope that miracle happens.  North Korea regime collapse, democracy unification, peace without war.... I  hope...

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Gromdor
10 hours ago, Great Old Man said:

I trust the USA. USA is only hope that can stop North Korea.  However, I am always aware of possibility that the USA gave up Korea peninsular's crisis.

If the USA withdraw their troops from South Korea, our country will confront serious crisis.

I heard that, some of the USA politicians and diplomacy experts argue that  the USA have to withdraw their troops from ROK.

As you know, Korea government has little power to change North Korea regime. Futhermore, lots of North Korea spies hide in South Korea. (Similar as Vietnam)

South Korea never solve this problem alone. Only the USA can handle this situation.

You can rest assured that the US will not remove it's troops from South Korea.  We want them there for China and Russia even if North Korea is removed from the equation.  The only way that would ever happen is if South Korea decides to throw the US out. 

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and then
On 1/6/2018 at 2:35 PM, Vlad the Mighty said:

Don't you think if South Korea was on at least speaking terms, if not openly friendly relations, with Pyongang, the risk of Mad Rocket Man being suicidally insane enough to launch a first strike on the US would be reduced considerably? Or is that too subtle an idea for the Dear Leader to comprehend?

What I "think" isn't really as important as the history of that family and its relationship with the U.S. over the past few decades.  EVERY single time we have attempted to make a bargain that might lead to warmer relations, they have broken it and have been extremely belligerent in the process.  I'd love to see better relations between North and South but NOT at the expense of U.S. security.  Period, full stop.  Frankly, my solution would be to make Kim China's headache.  I would state very clearly in an international forum that it will be U.S. policy that any strike on our troops or territory by the Norks will be considered a strike by the PRC.  Kim is an unruly guard dog that only exists because China feeds it.  Place the responsibility where it truly rests.  That would be a potentially incendiary step and so long as that family could only threaten their kin to the south, it wasn't a reasonable solution.  Inviting hostilities with a nuclear power like China was to be avoided.  When Rocket Man has deliverable and over time, more refined nuclear warheads, that calculus changes things.  If anything, he's MORE of a threat than China.  Chinese leaders are rational.  I don't believe the same of Kim if he perceives that HIS life is threatened.  Can you imagine just how many would LOVE to see him dead?  What if some rogue element in China or among the Norks tries to make it a reality?  Too risky in the long term to just hope for the best.  IF a nuclear war breaks out in Asia I will hold every presidential administration since the last war responsible. 

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