Jump to content
Join the Unexplained Mysteries community today! It's free and setting up an account only takes a moment.
- Sign In or Create Account -
Peter B

Article about Russia and Baltic states

5 posts in this topic

Recommended Posts

Peter B

http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2018/01/09/4788353.htm

What I want to do here is to discuss a situation that is presently little known or appreciated in the United States, but it may nevertheless be the area where U.S. and Russian forces are most likely to come into direct violent confrontations, with a high potential for nuclear escalation. I am thinking of the Baltic Sea region.

The article seems to agree with how I understand Russia seems to be operating at the moment. I'd be curious to see what fellow UM-ers think.

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 
and then

Thanks for posting this article.  It sums up the dangers quite succinctly.  I agree wholly that we could stumble into a war in that region.  Thus far, president Trump has allowed the generals and admirals to do their jobs and they have exercised great professionalism and restraint amongst the small provocations that the Russian military have tried.  The fear is that one of these hot-shot stick jockeys will cut the pass a bit too fine and two aircraft will wind up in the Black Sea.  Or worse, a Russian warplane will wrap itself into a flaming ball on a U.S. naval vessel.  Hopefully, Vladimir was just testing the new guy and Trump's willingness to rely on seasoned, hard-bitten warriors for his moves in the world will convince Putin that now isn't the time to push too hard.  If he does, he's just being greedy.  He had eight years to do as he pleased and now he has improved the geography and power of Russia far more than even he could have anticipated.  Remember, Russia, with the exception of its nuclear arsenal, is NOT a great power.  While Putin seems bent on changing that and is working diligently to build up a professional military again, they aren't close, yet.  

Adventurism and miscalculation are always a serious threat and that's why I feel that the last 8 years was so dangerous to our country.  I don't think we've cleared that danger period yet.  Both Putin and Xi seem to believe this president is out of his depth and that when pushed, he'll listen to the doves in DC.  I think they may be dead wrong.  The real question is whether Vlad would escalate to the point of no return.  Would he bet his beloved nation that Trump and Mattis wouldn't break bad on him?  I think Putin is wiser than to allow such a situation to spin out of control.  It would be another matter if NATO forces began massing in large numbers on his border.  Thankfully, NATO has shown itself to be a paper tiger sans U.S. might so he probably doesn't feel too threatened by NATO. In fact, I think NATO is about to be subsumed into a new EU military force.  I also think that they will align themselves somewhat more closely with Russia.  JMO.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
keithisco

I think Putin tends to react to threats to the Russian "sphere of influence" more than any desire to start a fully fledged war in Europe. I see much of what the EU does with "Neighbourhood" Association Agreements with states that border Russia as being an aggressive, and destabilising step in the region. What used to act as a buffer zone is being eroded by EU expansionism and has not been very cleverly worked out.

I would not be surprised if the EU effectively makes NATO unworkable with its provocative military stance (for which it is wholly unprepared) and I,for one, would not like to see the UK and US having to bail out mainland Europe again.

I think it possible that a new alliance will emerge made up of some Scandinavian nations, the UK, Portugal and possibly (if they haven't been too ticked off) the USA. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Peter B
On 1/10/2018 at 1:53 AM, and then said:

Thanks for posting this article.  It sums up the dangers quite succinctly.  I agree wholly that we could stumble into a war in that region.  Thus far, president Trump has allowed the generals and admirals to do their jobs and they have exercised great professionalism and restraint amongst the small provocations that the Russian military have tried.  The fear is that one of these hot-shot stick jockeys will cut the pass a bit too fine and two aircraft will wind up in the Black Sea.  Or worse, a Russian warplane will wrap itself into a flaming ball on a U.S. naval vessel.  Hopefully, Vladimir was just testing the new guy and Trump's willingness to rely on seasoned, hard-bitten warriors for his moves in the world will convince Putin that now isn't the time to push too hard.  If he does, he's just being greedy.  He had eight years to do as he pleased and now he has improved the geography and power of Russia far more than even he could have anticipated.  Remember, Russia, with the exception of its nuclear arsenal, is NOT a great power.  While Putin seems bent on changing that and is working diligently to build up a professional military again, they aren't close, yet.  

Adventurism and miscalculation are always a serious threat and that's why I feel that the last 8 years was so dangerous to our country.  I don't think we've cleared that danger period yet.  Both Putin and Xi seem to believe this president is out of his depth and that when pushed, he'll listen to the doves in DC.  I think they may be dead wrong.  The real question is whether Vlad would escalate to the point of no return.  Would he bet his beloved nation that Trump and Mattis wouldn't break bad on him?  I think Putin is wiser than to allow such a situation to spin out of control.  It would be another matter if NATO forces began massing in large numbers on his border.  Thankfully, NATO has shown itself to be a paper tiger sans U.S. might so he probably doesn't feel too threatened by NATO. In fact, I think NATO is about to be subsumed into a new EU military force.  I also think that they will align themselves somewhat more closely with Russia.  JMO.

Or he might listen to the isolationists...as pointed out in the article I linked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
and then
5 hours ago, Peter B said:

Or he might listen to the isolationists...as pointed out in the article I linked.

It's certainly a possibility.  Hopefully, Mattis will make it clear that such a choice would mean the end of NATO and the ceding of Europe to its own choices, good or bad.  It would be almost impossible to get Americans on board a third time to wage war there, IMO.  We would stand with the UK, of that, I have no doubt.  The Continentals might have to trust to the tender mercies of their new friends to the east.  So much has changed there that they might even welcome them.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.