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rashore

2018 elections

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Aquila King
24 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

I’m saying that in this case, on that particular subject, you’re wrong. And advising you to not double down on your wrongness by continuing the argument.

Well you can say that all you want, but the facts are all there. I presented them in the link, I've made my argument, and I'll 'double down' on it proudly because it is in fact true.  By all means, try and make an actual argument to refute it if you want to, but don't just sit there and pretend like I made some sort of bald-faced lie. I didn't. I made a rational argument, whether you agree with me or not.

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Sir Wearer of Hats
41 minutes ago, Aquila King said:

Well you can say that all you want, but the facts are all there. I presented them in the link, I've made my argument, and I'll 'double down' on it proudly because it is in fact true.  By all means, try and make an actual argument to refute it if you want to, but don't just sit there and pretend like I made some sort of bald-faced lie. I didn't. I made a rational argument, whether you agree with me or not.

No one disagreed that the homeless getting into the workforce is difficult. People who have helped the homeless get into the workforce disagreed that it was impossible and/or never happens.

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Aquila King
2 minutes ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

No one disagreed that the homeless getting into the workforce is difficult. People who have helped the homeless get into the workforce disagreed that it was impossible and/or never happens.

I didn't say it was impossible, just that it's damn bloody difficult. And to just throw out a pat solution like "they should just get a job" is a simple-minded expectation. That's what I was getting at.

I honestly feel like you and I are agreeing more then we realize, but just keep talking past one another. :huh: A bit of miscommunication for whatever reason.

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Sir Wearer of Hats
33 minutes ago, Aquila King said:

I didn't say it was impossible, just that it's damn bloody difficult. And to just throw out a pat solution like "they should just get a job" is a simple-minded expectation. That's what I was getting at.

I honestly feel like you and I are agreeing more then we realize, but just keep talking past one another. :huh: A bit of miscommunication for whatever reason.

It’s your accent :P or maybe mine ;) 

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DieChecker
On 6/7/2018 at 4:14 PM, Aquila King said:

How many homeless people are ever hired to do anything? That kinda shoots your whole argument right in the foot.

I thought it was because many of them don't want to work. They are either horribly lazy (aka... treasure their "freedom"), or in need of mental health treatment.

Basically any homeless guy can get a job if they can get an address. A homeless shelter often can be that address.

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ExpandMyMind

Hey, guys, any chance this one can be kept on topic? It's specifically about the elections and I'd prefer to not have to wade through pages of unrelated debates in order to find posts relating to the actual elections.

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DieChecker

These 9 California House races could make or break the Democratic wave  - A guide to the most important House primary races in California.

So... According to Vox these are House races that will make/break the Democrat takeover of Congress in the House of Representatives, for 2018.

  • 4th District
  • 10th District
  • 22nd District
  • 25th District
  • 39th District
  • 45th District
  • 48th District
  • 49th District
  • 50th District

And here is how the Primary Elections went....

  • 4th - Republican win by 32%
  • 10th - Republican win by 21%
  • 22nd - Republican win by 36%
  • 29th - Republican win by 1.5%
  • 45th - Republican win by 32%
  • 48th - Republican win by 13%
  • 49th - Republican win by 8%
  • 50th - Republican win by 32%

Doesn't look so good for a total flip of the House. Looks like it will be status quo at worst, based on these numbers. Only one of those "make or break" races is even close to being a flip to Democrat so far.

Sure, there were other people running who may have "Stolen" votes from one side of the other, but in the case where the difference is 20+%, it is unlikely that the other guy is going to catch up and pass the main candidate.

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bee

 

thought this thread should be brought back up as November 6th is not far away -

 

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bee

 

President Trump is campaigning his socks off holding rallies all over the place to massive crowds..
but (and correct me if I'm wrong) I don't think these rallies are getting much mainstream coverage...

Hillary Clinton has made remarks about incivility continuing from the Democrats if they don't take
back the House and make gains in the Senate ... remarks that could be interpreted as a green light
for disruptive (and violent?) protests to continue...

Kanye West has hugged the President in the Oval Office and told the world ... "I love this guy" :)

 

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RAyMO
1 minute ago, bee said:

Kanye West has hugged the President in the Oval Office and told the world ... "I love this guy"

Don't know who becomes the worse of for that exchange. ^_^

Updated Oct. 12, 2018, at 3:22 AM

7 in 9 Chance Democrats win control (78.0%) of House.

4 in 5 Chance Republicans keep control (81.4%) of Senate.

source https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

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DieChecker
10 minutes ago, bee said:

President Trump is campaigning his socks off holding rallies all over the place to massive crowds..
but (and correct me if I'm wrong) I don't think these rallies are getting much mainstream coverage...

Hillary Clinton has made remarks about incivility continuing from the Democrats if they don't take
back the House and make gains in the Senate ... remarks that could be interpreted as a green light
for disruptive (and violent?) protests to continue...

Kanye West has hugged the President in the Oval Office and told the world ... "I love this guy" :)

They are getting the most coverage, not for his message, but due to Liberal bias "FactCheckers" getting their opinions posted all over the internet.

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DieChecker

The Republicans have made something of a surge in the last couple days, on the expected to win chart.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Looks like the control of the House will revolve around 2 or 3 of the closest toss up races. Right now they're saying 204 solid Dem seats, 199 solid Rep seats and 32 seats still are toss up. RealClear has most of those 32 as currently Republican, and so they believe that statistically, the Republicans will loose around half of those, which would put the Democrats like 10 to 15 seats up over the Republicans. In practice, I don't know that that is going to happen, because in a good economy the Incumbents will usually win. So, I think it will be closer then they are currently projecting. 

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bee
14 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Don't know who becomes the worse of for that exchange. ^_^

Updated Oct. 12, 2018, at 3:22 AM

7 in 9 Chance Democrats win control (78.0%) of House.

4 in 5 Chance Republicans keep control (81.4%) of Senate.

source https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

 

time will tell how it pans out... (sorry for stating the obvious... :D ) 

this political commentator, HA Goodman, has predicted that the Republicans will
keep the House and the Senate - Goodman  WAS a strong Bernie Sanders supporter
but after everything that has gone on... now plans to vote for Trump in 2020... 
 

 

GOP KEEPS HOUSE, SENATE. KANYE WEST (YE), KAVANAUGH CEMENT GOP VICTORIES

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Katniss

I still think the system is rigged. Sooner or later there will be a changing of the guard for the House or Senate. It's about that time again.

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DieChecker
9 minutes ago, Katniss said:

I still think the system is rigged. Sooner or later there will be a changing of the guard for the House or Senate. It's about that time again.

Considering 8 years ago Obama had a Democrat lock on the House and Senate... I think you are right. Probably within the next 4 years we'll see the House and Senate flip back to Democrat control. It is a repeating cycle.

The fact that this cycle seems to happen over and over again, every 6 to 10 years would seem to indicate that the system is NOT rigged, and that indeed that when things go to far one way, the other party assumes control. Till they also go too far, and the other party then takes control from them.

Edited by DieChecker
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DieChecker
2 hours ago, DieChecker said:

The Republicans have made something of a surge in the last couple days, on the expected to win chart.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

 

Also looks like they predict Dems picking up 8, YES EIGHT, governor positions. I'd be surprised if that happens, but it might.

Real Clear was way off on the 2016 election, predicting Clinton to win by a fair margin, if I remember right. They say they've fixed their models, but.....

I also noticed this.... (see pic) where it appears that the "lean" is going the Republicans way... All after 10-4-18. I wonder if the Circus of the Kavanaugh Appointment to the SCotUS has woke up the Rs more then the Ds?

HouseRace.JPG.87cf605cb1295c83bcddca6d7b7c7ffc.JPG

Edited by DieChecker

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Katniss
2 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Considering 8 years ago Obama had a Democrat lock on the House and Senate... I think you are right. Probably within the next 4 years we'll see the House and Senate flip back to Democrat control. It is a repeating cycle.

There is definitely a pattern here IMO. Some things just don't add up.

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DieChecker
3 minutes ago, Katniss said:

There is definitely a pattern here IMO. Some things just don't add up.

I think in politics, most of the time, things don't generally add up. We have to do the best we can with the horribly flawed people who actually want these corrupting elected positions.

Edited by DieChecker
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Katniss
55 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

The fact that this cycle seems to happen over and over again, every 6 to 10 years would seem to indicate that the system is NOT rigged, and that indeed that when things go to far one way, the other party assumes control. Till they also go too far, and the other party then takes control from them.

Okay but why have they kept on doing that for so many years now. Are they doing it on purpose? I'm wondering why at least one party doesn't learn not do that anymore, so they can maintain control for a longer time.

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spartan max2
49 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Also looks like they predict Dems picking up 8, YES EIGHT, governor positions. I'd be surprised if that happens, but it might.

Real Clear was way off on the 2016 election, predicting Clinton to win by a fair margin, if I remember right. They say they've fixed their models, but.....

I also noticed this.... (see pic) where it appears that the "lean" is going the Republicans way... All after 10-4-18. I wonder if the Circus of the Kavanaugh Appointment to the SCotUS has woke up the Rs more then the Ds?

HouseRace.JPG.87cf605cb1295c83bcddca6d7b7c7ffc.JPG

Ohis goveners race is super close. At this point the one in the lead just depends on which poll you look at.

Unfortunately this year I'm voting for the Democrat candidate. It has nonething to do with Trump, I generally like trump. The guy they have running on the Republican ticket is just a idoit. 

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DieChecker
5 minutes ago, Katniss said:

Okay but why have they kept on doing that for so many years now. Are they doing it on purpose? I'm wondering why at least one party doesn't learn not do that anymore, so they can maintain control for a longer time.

I think it is because they are all humans. Humans crave power (at least the ones that run for upper political office do), and so they will not relinquish power of their own free will. They have to be voted out by the (fed up) will of the voting public. Regardless of logic, reason, or actually what is effective... This is true.

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DieChecker
2 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Ohis goveners race is super close. At this point the one in the lead just depends on which poll you look at.

Unfortunately this year I'm voting for the Democrat candidate. It has nonething to do with Trump, I generally like trump. The guy they have running on the Republican ticket is just a idoit. 

On local level races, I often vote for the Democrat, because I actually read the voter mailer that goes out and figure out who is going to be better in the position for the people they will be representing. Often the Republican is way, way, way outclassed in experience, education and ability to communicate. That's probably just because I live in an area that is overwhelmingly Blue, so few self respecting Rs will run for office.

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DarkHunter
9 hours ago, Katniss said:

Okay but why have they kept on doing that for so many years now. Are they doing it on purpose? I'm wondering why at least one party doesn't learn not do that anymore, so they can maintain control for a longer time.

No party seems to learn as you put it because its impossible for either party to do so with the current political set up. 

There are really two main problems and they are how elections are done and human nature.  Essentially once one side wins their biggest opposition comes from their own side in the form of primary opponents so to guarantee they win or dont face any primary opponents they got to appeal more and more to the extreme members of the party that pull them further left or right and once they get pulled far enough they lose. 

Also people generally blame the ones in charge for anything bad that happens whether it was their fault or not and once enough blame gets built up the middle section of the electorate changes the political party.

So with the established politicians constantly getting pulled to extremes and people blaming those in charge for anything that goes wrong you end up with a system that periodically changes who is in charge.

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skliss
9 hours ago, DieChecker said:

On local level races, I often vote for the Democrat, because I actually read the voter mailer that goes out and figure out who is going to be better in the position for the people they will be representing. Often the Republican is way, way, way outclassed in experience, education and ability to communicate. That's probably just because I live in an area that is overwhelmingly Blue, so few self respecting Rs will run for office.

How are they gonna learn?

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docyabut2

Hope to God the  Republicans win again, the Democrats just want to lower people`s standers, at least Trump is trying to higher those standers he doing a great job:))

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