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rashore

2018 elections

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DieChecker

I think this election will make or break Nate Silver. He was so wrong in 2016, giving Clinton a 90% chance of winning. Today he gives a 85% chance of a.Democrat majority. He's quoted in almost every news site. If he turns out to be wrong......

Edited by DieChecker

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Habitat

" Betfair"  has these odds...…..suggesting Democrats roughly 63% chance of a majority in the House

Democrat Majority

1.56$8196
1.57$644
1.59$5296
1.6$1709
1.61$1761
1.62$4654

Republican Majority

2.64$456
2.68$1862
2.7$901
2.72$5619
2.74$3073
2.76$5046

No Majority

160$61
170$53
180$8
200$30
210$29
220$24

 

 

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bee
47 minutes ago, Habitat said:

" Betfair"  has these odds...…..suggesting Democrats roughly 63% chance of a majority in the House

Democrat Majority

1.56$8196
1.57$644
1.59$5296
1.6$1709
1.61$1761
1.62$4654
 

Republican Majority

2.64$456
2.68$1862
2.7$901
2.72$5619
2.74$3073
2.76$5046
 

No Majority

160$61
170$53
180$8
200$30
210$29
220$24

 

 

 

I think the Bookies can be crafty though with stuff like this... like how they got Brexit and the Presidential
Election so spectacularly  wrong... (on the face of it)

Although the odds are skimpy... people pile on to what they think is a done deal then nearer
the time they are forced to shorten the odds on the eventual winner...

just pondering on why the Bookies do this... because they are usually a good guide...
but maybe politics are different (and they might factor in other things that could crop up)

dunno 

but they DO love a loosing favourite..

 

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RoofGardener
2 minutes ago, bee said:

 

I think the Bookies can be crafty though with stuff like this... like how they got Brexit and the Presidential
Election so spectacularly  wrong... (on the face of it)

Although the odds are skimpy... people pile on to what they think is a done deal then nearer
the time they are forced to shorten the odds on the eventual winner...

just pondering on why the Bookies do this... because they are usually a good guide...
but maybe politics are different (and they might factor in other things that could crop up)

dunno 

but they DO love a loosing favourite..

 

Indeed Bee. Lets not forget that Betfair  predicted a 74% chance of Clinton winning - very similar to Nate Silver's figures. They where BOTH spectacularly wrong. 

And now, both Silver and Betfair are predicting ANOTHER democratic win. Will history be repeating itself ? 

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Habitat

Betfair, of course, is an exchange, and it just people betting against each other, not a bookmaker. But, in recent times there have been some notable instances of upset results in elections.

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bee
8 minutes ago, Habitat said:

Betfair, of course, is an exchange, and it just people betting against each other, not a bookmaker. But, in recent times there have been some notable instances of upset results in elections.

 

oh ok.....

I was looking here... and at the moment all the Bookies are going for the Dems... 

(the odds on this link will change as time goes on)

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-house-midterm-elections/winner

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RoofGardener

 

23 minutes ago, bee said:

 

oh ok.....

I was looking here... and at the moment all the Bookies are going for the Dems... 

(the odds on this link will change as time goes on)

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-house-midterm-elections/winner

Yup.. and THEY got it 'wrong' in 2016 as well :)

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Habitat

Betfair has had markets about Trump staying in power for his full term, for quite a while, and for a long time, it was basically 50/50 that he lasted, but lately he is deemed as roughly a 70% chance to remain till 2020.

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Hammerclaw

Political Cartoons by AF Branco

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bee
22 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

 

Yup.. and THEY got it 'wrong' in 2016 as well :)

 

didn't they just.....

on the odds checker site... Betfair and Paddypower have shortened to 1/5 for a Dem majority in the house..
but that means nothing really because for the EU referendum and Trump presidency some Bookies were giving
crazy odds like 1/7 ... 1/8 ... 1/9 .... for Remain and Clinton to win...

The odds for a no majority result are around 100/1.... except for Betdaq.... 4/6   :blink:

The thing is there are an odd number of Representatives in the House... (435)   so unless the two party
system gets gate crashed.... that's a safe bet for the Bookies 

You could look at it like..... they want to take as much money as they can but want to put punters off betting
on the Republicans winning because they know (are pretty sure?) they are going to win.. 

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-house-midterm-elections/winner


 

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bee

 

meanwhile over in Arizona.... Senate Democrat Candidate Kyrsten Sinema is feeling the heat
and getting exposed as a Trojan Horse type campaigner.... pretending to be less progressive
and more conservative to get votes.... 

because once you're in..... you're in .... and can vote how you want...

 

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bee

 

and James O'Keefe responding to Sinema's response....

 

James O'Keefe Responds to Kyrsten Sinema's Absurd Comment on Undercover Videos

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DieChecker

It is interesting how several of the bigger liberal news sources are saying Beto O'Rourke in Texas is behind by a slim margin, but the polls say 10% behind. Is 10% a slim margin? I was thinking 2% would be a slim margin.

If they just keep saying it, pehaps it will come true?

Just was reading that our Governor, Kate Brown, is actually expected to face heavy resistance in this election. I'd laugh and laugh if she loses. Her entire agenda is identity politics and abortion support.

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F3SS
9 hours ago, bee said:

 

didn't they just.....

on the odds checker site... Betfair and Paddypower have shortened to 1/5 for a Dem majority in the house..
but that means nothing really because for the EU referendum and Trump presidency some Bookies were giving
crazy odds like 1/7 ... 1/8 ... 1/9 .... for Remain and Clinton to win...

The odds for a no majority result are around 100/1.... except for Betdaq.... 4/6   :blink:

The thing is there are an odd number of Representatives in the House... (435)   so unless the two party
system gets gate crashed.... that's a safe bet for the Bookies 

You could look at it like..... they want to take as much money as they can but want to put punters off betting
on the Republicans winning because they know (are pretty sure?) they are going to win.. 

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-house-midterm-elections/winner


 

The only thing that has me concerned, and I didn't realize this until a few days ago, is that there are 45 Republican seats being vacated in the House. Resignations and retirements. That means the seats are up for grabs by a fresh face on each side. Although a lot of those vacating likely suck anyhow, that's still 45 less incumbents that would likely hold power ensuring a Republican sweep.

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RoofGardener
36 minutes ago, F3SS said:

The only thing that has me concerned, and I didn't realize this until a few days ago, is that there are 45 Republican seats being vacated in the House. Resignations and retirements. That means the seats are up for grabs by a fresh face on each side. Although a lot of those vacating likely suck anyhow, that's still 45 less incumbents that would likely hold power ensuring a Republican sweep.

Indeed F3SS... and there is - traditionally - a swing AGAINST the majority party during mid-term elections. Of around 30-40 seats ! In addition, it is a pure popular vote; there are no electoral colleges. 

So on traditional measures, the Democrats will win Congress. However, that is purely statistical, and doesn't take into account the calibre of the individuals, or the news cycle. (hoax bombs, Honduran caravans, and Supreme Court nominees etc).  

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ExpandMyMind
10 hours ago, DieChecker said:

It is interesting how several of the bigger liberal news sources are saying Beto O'Rourke in Texas is behind by a slim margin, but the polls say 10% behind. Is 10% a slim margin? I was thinking 2% would be a slim margin.

If they just keep saying it, pehaps it will come true?

Just was reading that our Governor, Kate Brown, is actually expected to face heavy resistance in this election. I'd laugh and laugh if she loses. Her entire agenda is identity politics and abortion support.

Quote

Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released Wednesday.

Source

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acidhead

 

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DieChecker
10 hours ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Looking at 538 poll site looks like UT generally is 2 to 3 points different then the other nearest polls, so probably closer to 6%, still a good comeback though.

Not sure if 4 points counts as a narrow lead either... 6 certainly wouldn't IMHO.

Edited by DieChecker

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Farmer77
9 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Looking at 538 poll site looks like UT generally is 2 to 3 points different then the other nearest polls, so probably closer to 6%, still a good comeback though.

Not sure if 4 points counts as a narrow lead either... 6 certainly wouldn't IMHO.

Man forget politics for a second, anyone who could pull the lever for that creepy ****er Cruz should be removed from the body politic for making the rest of us look at that slimy child molester meets porn store clerk smile. How that dude is allowed within 1000 feet of school zones is truly beyond me.

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DieChecker
13 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

Man forget politics for a second, anyone who could pull the lever for that creepy ****er Cruz should be removed from the body politic for making the rest of us look at that slimy child molester meets porn store clerk smile. How that dude is allowed within 1000 feet of school zones is truly beyond me.

You're judging a man based on his smile alone? Tell me you are joking/teasing. Put an lol or something on the end of such a joke.

If you are not kidding, then perhaps it is YOU who should not be allowed to vote?

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Farmer77
3 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

You're judging a man based on his smile alone? Tell me you are joking/teasing. Put an lol or something on the end of such a joke.

If you are not kidding, then perhaps it is YOU who should not be allowed to vote?

Oh i did mean to put a laughing emoji in there. Dude does creep me out though and I am at a loss as to how anyone would think he wasnt too creepy to vote for but there are obviously plenty of other reasons to dislike and distrust the man.

His wife's employer and ties alone would be enough for me to not vote for him.

Edited by Farmer77

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Farmer77

I just filled out my ballot today. I voted the full democrat line for the first time ever, not out of love for the dem candidates, but because the local repub candidates have taken Trumpism (aka lies and insults) to extreme levels. Basically short of their opponents coming out as cannibal killers a vote for anyone is better for the state/nation than the current crop of repubs.

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bee
18 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

I just filled out my ballot today. I voted the full democrat line for the first time ever, not out of love for the dem candidates, but because the local repub candidates have taken Trumpism (aka lies and insults) to extreme levels. Basically short of their opponents coming out as cannibal killers a vote for anyone is better for the state/nation than the current crop of repubs.

 

your white supremacist technocrat overlords will be sooooooo proud of you.....

the AI internet programs rejoice and robots are clapping their cold cold hands .........

^_^
 

 

 

 

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Farmer77
2 minutes ago, bee said:

 

your white supremacist technocrat overlords will be sooooooo proud of you.....

the AI internet programs rejoice and robots are clapping their cold cold hands .........

^_^
 

LOL.....I stared at that ballot for a week (maybe more) agonizing over the decision. I normally would have voted green but damn this crop of republicans is bad, i mean get called out on foxnews for lying bad....you know ****'s bad when thats happening.

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bee
4 hours ago, acidhead said:

 

 

So now Trump is worse than ISIS.... :rolleyes:

the dumbed down sheep are an embarrassment - but she had a sly look on her face as she spoke
like she knew she was talking BS but she was doing it for the election + democrat party....

like how Don Lemon had an odd blank sly look on his face when he did his little racist speech...

I've noticed that the Globalist Media are trying to rehabilitate ISIS and muslim terrorists in the
minds of their susceptible followers....

like..... oh ISIS aren't so bad..... but Trump is very bad..... white men very bad....

(I think the Globalist Elite do this because a Sunni / Saudi lead Islamic State is part of their agenda..?
as a step towards a one world totalitarian government)


 

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