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Captain Risky

PM May only has two Brexit options left

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Captain Risky

Theresa May only has two Brexit options left: Capitulation to the EU or a second referendum

  • May cannot get a Brexit deal through parliament that includes leaving the European customs union, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Samuel Tombs.
  • Only staying inside the customs union solves the Irish border question to everyone’s satisfaction.
  • Thus, May will eventually cave to a soft Brexit deal.
  • She could force the issue by staging a second referendum with two options: Remain or Hard Brexit.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/theresa-may-is-heading-toward-inevitable-capitulation-to-the-eu-second-referendum-2018-3

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Captain Risky

essentially former PM Tony Blair said the same thing on the weekend and it now seems to be the general consensus among British and European political pundits. two choices that being stay or hard brexit!

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Vlad the Mighty

Why should an unconvicted criminal's opinion have any weight?

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stevewinn
22 minutes ago, Vlad the Mighty said:

Why should an unconvicted criminal's opinion have any weight?

when the remainers are quoting Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson et al they've lost the argument.

1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

Theresa May only has two Brexit options left: Capitulation to the EU or a second referendum

  • May cannot get a Brexit deal through parliament that includes leaving the European customs union, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Samuel Tombs.
  • Only staying inside the customs union solves the Irish border question to everyone’s satisfaction.
  • Thus, May will eventually cave to a soft Brexit deal.
  • She could force the issue by staging a second referendum with two options: Remain or Hard Brexit.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/theresa-may-is-heading-toward-inevitable-capitulation-to-the-eu-second-referendum-2018-3

Who is Samuel Tombs and why should we listen to his opinion?

The bullet points in your link.

  • Theresa May cannot get a Brexit deal through parliament that includes leaving the European customs union, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Samuel Tombs.

Theresa May can get it through Parliament, Because even Labour have said we are leaving the Customs Union. plus The Tory party have a majority along with the DUP. 

  • Only staying inside the customs union solves the Irish border question to everyone’s satisfaction.

Not true, how does the current Border work, with a different currency, different Excise taxes, VAT and Income taxes this does not need a man or woman in a kiosk on the border doing the sums whilst vans and lorries wait. It is all done electronically. So why can’t the new arrangements be done similarly? Have these journalists/experts mever heard of TIR, Authorised Economic Operators, and electronic manifests? We have no problem landing goods from none-EU countries in the UK / N.Ireland and then transported across the border, someone ask these journalists and opinionated Remainers were are the queues, watch towers and Customs officers holding everyone up. No-where. So let me put this out there, IF we in the UK can import goods from around the world and they are cleared electronically within 5 seconds of being unloaded Why is the same not possible for the R.O.I. because im sure EU countries use the same system for goods arriving from outside the EU. So you see the solution is there, Its just not politically acceptable to the EU because they want to control the UK after Brexit, R.O.I is seen as the means. But im afraid when it comes to 0.1% of UK GDP and just 5% of Trade between North and South im afraid we wont held to ransom. oh but the good Friday agreement. 

  • Thus, May will eventually cave to a soft Brexit deal.

Were leaving the EU, Customs Union, Single market and ECJ. Is that a soft Brexit.

  • She could force the issue by staging a second referendum with two options: Remain or Hard Brexit.

We wont be holding a second Referendum, and were unlikely to see a referendum on anything else for many a year. 

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Vlad the Mighty
2 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Who is Samuel Tombs and why should we listen to his opinion?

He's a Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst. I wish I was one, it sounds great doesn't it. 

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bee

 

yes panic is taking hold as Britain prepares to leave the EU.......

and Tony Blair may never get to fulfill his ambition of becoming EU president... :hmm:

p  a  n  i  c 

 

 

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Ozymandias

EVERYWHERE the EU has a border with a non-EU country there are border controls and double checks are made if you wish to cross. So the EU checks every vehicle coming from the Russian side, for example, and Russia checks every vehicle from the EU. 

Isn't it a prime objective of the UK to take back control of its borders and who crosses them? Will there be an open unrestricted border at the Channel Tunnel or at Gibraltar? If not, why does the UK want one in Ireland?

Last November a joint EU/UK study identified 142 areas of cross-border cooperation between the Republic and the UK that will be negatively impacted by Brexit. How will they survive the imposition of a border? Besides vague and vacuous aspirations, what DETAILED solutions have the shambolic  UK government put forward to protect these?

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acute

I agree with the consensus. The Irish Border question is unresolvable if we leave the Customs Union.

Whatever we propose will be rejected by the EU, scuppered by the DUP, or vetoed by the ROI.

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stevewinn
48 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

EVERYWHERE the EU has a border with a non-EU country there are border controls and double checks are made if you wish to cross. So the EU checks every vehicle coming from the Russian side, for example, and Russia checks every vehicle from the EU. 

Isn't it a prime objective of the UK to take back control of its borders and who crosses them? Will there be an open unrestricted border at the Channel Tunnel or at Gibraltar? If not, why does the UK want one in Ireland?

Last November a joint EU/UK study identified 142 areas of cross-border cooperation between the Republic and the UK that will be negatively impacted by Brexit. How will they survive the imposition of a border? Besides vague and vacuous aspirations, what DETAILED solutions have the shambolic  UK government put forward to protect these?

Why would we want a border on the Island of Ireland? your Govt doesn't want a border and neither does the British Govt as two independent countries we resolved this issue many years ago and the British granted Irish Citizens rights and benefits which they still enjoy to this day. plus we don't want our Irish cousins across the Irish sea facing economic ruin.

The solution is easy the British Govt as already put forward a workable solution like i outlined in my previous post but the EU turned it down. please remember it was the EU civil servants who first said it was easily solved. only for that to be brushed aside as the EU seize the opportunity to stop the UK diverging away from the EU i.e prevent the UK becoming competitive.

There seems to be no problem with French overseas territories or French Guinea, in South America, considered French territory, uses the Euro, but is outside of the Customs Union, Schengan, same with the Danish Greenland or Faroe Islands, or the Netherlands Antilles or a number of territories outside of all EU institutions, treaty, customs Union, VAT ect.. yet face no delayed border checks. Take his Holiness the Pope in Vatican city a state that's outside of the EU treaties, customs Union. VAT and Excise and importantly has a open border.

There can be a unique solution found to pretend otherwise is unimaginative. - but then again this is the EU and their number one aim is to punish the UK for leaving.

 

 

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acute
Posted (edited)

^ French Guinea, Danish Greenland, and the Faroe Islands, don't have a land border with the rest of the EU to contend with.

Edited by acute

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stevewinn
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Vlad the Mighty said:

He's a Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst. I wish I was one, it sounds great doesn't it. 

As i said who is he!

Edited by stevewinn

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I'mConvinced

It's almost as if they played politics without having a plan if their intended outcome failed.  It failed.  What chokes me is that we are still having to listen to the same idiot party making decisions on something they had no interest in doing in the first place.  It should have been criminal to do what they did, Cameron running away was pathetic, May is clueless and more concerned with her own Christian values than running an effective country.  Now we can have a second referendum to prove how much of a waste of time, money and effort the first one was.

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RoofGardener

He's a young economist, working for a company called Pantheon Macroeconomics. He is "flavour of the month" because he predicted the outcome of the last election.

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acute

Hey folks, I think I've cracked the problem of a 300-mile porous border!

What we need is a virtual border. Let's just pretend there's one there.

:w00t:

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RoofGardener
Posted (edited)

Samuel Tombs - along with 99.8% of economists - is simply wrong about Brexit.

We WILL leave the customs union, and the European Court of Justice (with the possible exceptions of very specific joint ventures).

As for the "Irish Border"; the solution is simple.

Eire should also leave the EU. I mean, without the UK as a transit bridge, it will struggle somewhat to export into the EU anyway, so it may as well take the plunge :) !

Edited by RoofGardener

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stevewinn
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, I'mConvinced said:

It's almost as if they played politics without having a plan if their intended outcome failed.  It failed.  What chokes me is that we are still having to listen to the same idiot party making decisions on something they had no interest in doing in the first place.  It should have been criminal to do what they did, Cameron running away was pathetic, May is clueless and more concerned with her own Christian values than running an effective country.  Now we can have a second referendum to prove how much of a waste of time, money and effort the first one was.

David Cameron should have planned what to do in the event of vote Leave. in the run up to the referendum he banned civil servants from drawing up a plan in case it was seized upon by the Leave side, him saying that it would be doing the Leaves sides work for them. So he resigned in failure. Leaving May to carry the burden. since then she and her government have been all over the place, clueless, doesn't have a plan - that's if you listen to the media. Yet somehow she's managed to keep her position as PM, remember the leadership battle that never happened, She's kept her "split" party together and during all this she as won all but one vote in Parliament over Brexit. the Bill has been passed to Leave the EU clause 1 1972 act. Customs Union and single market. now here we are nearly 2 years later and all that's gone on she's stood strong, and in her latest speech we are still leaving the EU,Customs Union, Single Market and ECJ. I have asked the question, is that a reversal of the referendum, is it a hard or soft Brexit. Once you cut through all the Media drivel and look at what's actually happened the devil of the detail, the important stuff what other post-war Prime Minister as took office and instantly had to grapple with one of the most important events in our countries History. She's doing well.

Edited by stevewinn
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I'mConvinced
2 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

David Cameron should have planned what to do in the event of vote Leave

Yes he should but he didn't.  More importantly his party should not have allowed a referendum at all given that they only wanted, and prepared, for one outcome.  

6 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Yet somehow she's managed to keep her position as PM, remember the leadership battle that never happened, She's kept her "split" party together and during all this she as won all but one vote in Parliament over Brexit.

Somehow she has managed to call a general election and put herself in a weaker position than she was in before.  If she hadn't called the election, in her hubris, then we wouldn't be reliant on the DUP to get things done.  The reason she's still PM is everyone else you might consider has run for the hills and wants nothing to do with Brexit.  

8 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

now here we are nearly 2 years later and all that's gone on she's stood strong, and in her latest speech we are still leaving the EU,Customs Union, Single Market and ECJ.

Except all she has done is said what she wants to do, not how it will be achieved.  The Irish border issue cannot be resolved in the way she wants and the governments latest statements on the matter are laughable at best. Oh and don't get me started on the uselessness of our home secretary or the cronyism of the conservative party in general.

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LV-426
4 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

David Cameron should have planned what to do in the event of vote Leave. in the run up to the referendum he banned civil servants from drawing up a plan in case it was a Leave vote because he worried that any plan would be seized upon by the Leave side, him saying that it would be doing the Leaves sides work for them. So he resigned in failure. Leaving May to carry the burden. since then she and her government had been all over the place, clueless, doesn't have a plan - that's if you listen to the media. Yet somehow she's managed to keep her position as PM, remember the leadership battle that never happened, She's kept her "split" party together and during all this she as won all but one vote in Parliament over Brexit. the Bill has been passed to Leave the EU clause 1 1972 act. Customs Union and single market. now here we are nearly 2 years later and all that's gone on she's stood strong, and in her latest speech we are still leaving the EU,Customs Union, Single Market and ECJ. I have asked the question, is that a reversal of the referendum, is it a hard or soft Brexit. Once you cut through all the Media drivel and look at what's actually happened the devil of the detail, the important stuff  She's stood strong. what other Prime Minister as took office and instantly had to grapple with one of the most important events in our countries History.

Let's face it, she inherited the proverbial poisoned chalice. It wasn't the best time to take on the country's top job.

She's fighting the EU, hellbent on making the process as chaotic as possible to strengthen their own position. She's fighting many remainers who still refuse to accept the referendum result, and would see Britain in chaos just to be proven right. She's fighting some of her own party members, who are more interested in furthering their own careers than what's best for Britain. She's fighting Labour opposition who will do everything to undermine her, again, regardless of what's best for Britain as it will increase their chances of getting into power.

She's got more daggers at her back than the victim on Agatha Christie's imagining of the Orient Express...

Risky - thanks for yet another anti-Brexit thread by the way :rolleyes: Are you working for the BBC? - doesn't list option three... tell the EU to **** off and see where the chips fall.

What's the worst that could happen? Are we suddenly going to have to give up our Internet connections and turn our gardens into vegetable plots, as we'll be in such bad shape - fine... back to basics, I like it. No more reading crap on the Internet everyday, and a trimmer waistline :tu:

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stevewinn
2 minutes ago, I'mConvinced said:

Yes he should but he didn't.  More importantly his party should not have allowed a referendum at all given that they only wanted, and prepared, for one outcome.  

Somehow she has managed to call a general election and put herself in a weaker position than she was in before.  If she hadn't called the election, in her hubris, then we wouldn't be reliant on the DUP to get things done.  The reason she's still PM is everyone else you might consider has run for the hills and wants nothing to do with Brexit.  

Except all she has done is said what she wants to do, not how it will be achieved.  The Irish border issue cannot be resolved in the way she wants and the governments latest statements on the matter are laughable at best. Oh and don't get me started on the uselessness of our home secretary or the cronyism of the conservative party in general.

The Tory party under Cameron promised a referendum vote in their manifesto 2015. The Labour Party promised us a referendum in their manifesto 2005. which they reneged on. The Truth is we should've had a referendum on Maastricht which changed the EEC/EU from a trade Union to a Political one.

Theresa Mays General election, there are two parts to this, 1) she faced a problem any PM would have faced, which was date of the next UK General election which was to be held in 2020. This means a General election campaign would have been in full swing at the latter stages of the negotiations. secondly with an election having to be called she went for it in 2017, wrongly thinking the Referendum votes would transpire across to Tory Votes, they didnt but this highlighted an interesting fact, it showed voters from both Tories and Labour voted in favour of Brexit but returned back to their traditional parties on domestic policies. losing a majority of 17 was bad judgement, but a general election was needed anyway, problem was her advisers, policies and timing. Lucky enough for her she got enough votes to once again return to office of Prime Minister. more votes than Labour and the Lib Dems combined and people seem to forget that. Since then she's rode the storm and as emerged stronger.

 

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Vlad the Mighty
3 hours ago, acute said:

I agree with the consensus. The Irish Border question is unresolvable if we leave the Customs Union.

Whatever we propose will be rejected by the EU, scuppered by the DUP, or vetoed by the ROI.

It will be spied on by the NSA, and the CIA will launch a RCO*

* Regime Change Operation :angry: 

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Vlad the Mighty
1 hour ago, I'mConvinced said:

It's almost as if they played politics without having a plan if their intended outcome failed.  It failed.  What chokes me is that we are still having to listen to the same idiot party making decisions on something they had no interest in doing in the first place.  It should have been criminal to do what they did, Cameron running away was pathetic, May is clueless and more concerned with her own Christian values than running an effective country.  Now we can have a second referendum to prove how much of a waste of time, money and effort the first one was.

Cameron did, is quite correct. Ms May seems to be trying her best to do what she can in the face of opposition only seen on a similar scale by the "Resistance" to our very good friend Mr. Trump. As far as the rest of the bunch of upper class nitwits that comprise her "Government", I think you're spot on in your assessment too. 

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RAyMO

I still believe May is going for and still likely to achieve the third option - a hard worded, soft brexit.

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I'mConvinced
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

more votes than Labour and the Lib Dems combined and people seem to forget that. Since then she's rode the storm and as emerged stronger.

I don't forget it. I just can't stand her views on medical cannabis or her policies regarding DRU's.  Then there's Amber Rudd who 'doesn't need to know how technology works to legislate on it' before going on to make technically impossible requests /facepalm.

Boris Johnson needs to be sacked at the very least for his utter cowardice and devil-may-care attitude to how Britain appears to the rest of the world. I don't want a foreign secretary who's only in the position as some form of schoolboy punishment. 

The only shame is that we don't seem to have a viable option for change. 

Edited by I'mConvinced
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Vlad the Mighty
24 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

I still believe May is going for and still likely to achieve the third option - a hard worded, soft brexit.

the opposite of  'speak softly, but carry a big stick'? Speak firmly, but carry a soft Brexit. :unsure2: I'd like a nice moist Brexit myself, preferably one with a cream filling. 

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