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Iran/Israel war inside Syria

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/15/opinion/war-syria-iran-israel.html

This thread is designed to be a comprehensive discussion of these events as they play out in the coming weeks/months.  I get the impression that Suleimani has decided he can push Netanyahu now and Putin will back him.  Time will tell.

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Ogbin
Posted (edited)
On 4/17/2018 at 6:34 PM, and then said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/15/opinion/war-syria-iran-israel.html

This thread is designed to be a comprehensive discussion of these events as they play out in the coming weeks/months.  I get the impression that Suleimani has decided he can push Netanyahu now and Putin will back him.  Time will tell.

We know in the upcoming war of Gog and Magog that Russia and Iran are the two main players that come against Israel. Russia wants wants material gain and Iran wants the destruction of Israel. What we are seeing in the news today is the coming about of this prophecy. It's just as you say And Then, the stage is set and the play is about to begin.

Edited by Ogbin
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.AKUMA.

Oh no! not that bible mumbo jumbo again.

Now with Russia loosening its restrictions on S300 weapon sales im curious what geopolitical impact this will have.

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Captain Risky
On 4/18/2018 at 11:34 AM, and then said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/15/opinion/war-syria-iran-israel.html

This thread is designed to be a comprehensive discussion of these events as they play out in the coming weeks/months.  I get the impression that Suleimani has decided he can push Netanyahu now and Putin will back him.  Time will tell.

who is Suleimani ?

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Qassem Suleimani is the General who is in control of a major component of the Iranian government.  He leads the IRGC  (Iranian Republican Guard Corps). They are an elite military offshoot that is separate from the Army. Think of them as the “Praetorian Guard” for the Supreme religious leaders.  

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On 4/24/2018 at 2:54 AM, .AKUMA. said:

Oh no! not that bible mumbo jumbo again.

Now with Russia loosening its restrictions on S300 weapon sales im curious what geopolitical impact this will have.

Quite... that all depends on how good those systems actually are, I guess.  Geopolitically, if Russia and Iran decide to try to push Israel into a corner, there will be a war.  If, as I suspect, Putin decides to play his own game at Khamenei’s expense, there will be an indeterminate season of Iranian bleeding while they try to take Israel on at the margins via Iranian Proxies.  Eventually, that “jumbo jumbo” from about 2600 years ago predicts that the people living in Persia, what is now called Turkey and the areas now called Russia, will all three unify, along with other, smaller groups, to invade Israel to “take a spoil”.  

There has been a Massive discovery of natural gas offshore from Israel that is disputed by other countries in the region and now a truly remarkable potential find of oil under the Golan Heights that Syria forfeited to Israel during wars of aggression.  Add that to these “pipeline routes” that are continually being droned on about and it all makes for quite a “spoil”, indeed. 

Considering that logical progression, that mumbo  jumbo is looking pretty sound these days,eh?

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.AKUMA.
Posted (edited)
On 26/04/2018 at 11:59 AM, and then said:

Quite... that all depends on how good those systems actually are, I guess.  Geopolitically, if Russia and Iran decide to try to push Israel into a corner, there will be a war.  If, as I suspect, Putin decides to play his own game at Khamenei’s expense, there will be an indeterminate season of Iranian bleeding while they try to take Israel on at the margins via Iranian Proxies.  Eventually, that “jumbo jumbo” from about 2600 years ago predicts that the people living in Persia, what is now called Turkey and the areas now called Russia, will all three unify, along with other, smaller groups, to invade Israel to “take a spoil”.  

There has been a Massive discovery of natural gas offshore from Israel that is disputed by other countries in the region and now a truly remarkable potential find of oil under the Golan Heights that Syria forfeited to Israel during wars of aggression.  Add that to these “pipeline routes” that are continually being droned on about and it all makes for quite a “spoil”, indeed. 

Considering that logical progression, that mumbo  jumbo is looking pretty sound these days,eh?

All valid points here and then, a few corrections must be mentioned, first off the s300 missle system although not as capable as its newer s400 counterpart is a formidable machine, i study military technology thoroughly and can say nothing the US has can actually compare to it :/

As for the syria issue there are reports that israel has already established contracts to extract those natural resources from the golan heights. how this will play geopolitaclly we shall see. as for the natural resources discovered offsore, it's unfortunatly in Palestinian territory right off gaza, but ofcourse we can expect the Isrealis to take that land as they have been doing anyway, while crying anti-semitism if anyone tells them the are wrong.

I dont think russia is againt the state of Israel at all, its Israeli policy that needs more clarification. Isreal is against iran, and for good measure, as Iran has threatened their very way of life, the biggest issue with Israel and Saudi arabia in this conflict is they are both actively supporting ISIS in order to overthrow the syrian regime, Israel has been knowing to give medical aid to militants under humanitarian grounds....utter nonsense when they are back home shooting unarmed civilians.

the two biggest destabilising elements in this conflict are both the Saudis and Israel.

also i apologize for spelling mistakes im using my phone

Edited by .AKUMA.
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On 4/27/2018 at 5:51 PM, .AKUMA. said:

the two biggest destabilising elements in this conflict are both the Saudis and Israel.

As usual, we disagree on most Israel-related issues but I do appreciate the civility with which we can do so.  You refrain from becoming overtly personal with such issues and that's more than many here can say  :)

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)
On 27/04/2018 at 6:51 PM, .AKUMA. said:

syrian regime, Israel has been knowing to give medical aid to militants under humanitarian grounds....

Israel had a good neighbor in Assad. Why supporting the rebel opposition? I do not know, but there must have been pressure from our Western leaders. In any case, a weakened Syrian government means that Russia and Iran are now fillling the void. They should have seen it coming.

Edited by Clockwork_Spirit

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On 4/29/2018 at 1:47 AM, Clockwork_Spirit said:

They should have seen it coming.

Who?  Israel?  I'm sure they are aware of most of the potential poor outcomes that are possible in their neighborhood.  They just aren't in control of them all.  If they'd wanted Assad out of power they could easily have accomplished that over the past few years.  He isn't a friend of Israel but he was a predictable factor in the region and that was a good thing while it lasted.  Now, his country is gone and he's impotent to do anything to stop the plans of Russia and Iran.  With all the attacks on Iran by Israel, what's left of his country may be about to be reduced to smoking rubble.  I don't care about him but his poor people have suffered enough.  

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It appears that Iran has lost even more soldiers and weapons within Syria.  It's generally believed that Israel is the source:

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/explosions-reported-in-assad-army-base-north-of-homs-syria-1.6035801

I get the impression that Bibi may be trying to start up with Khamenei while Trump still has U.S. forces in the region.  He needs to be careful with U.S. public opinion.  If the perception is that we were forced into another conflict by Israel, it could do a LOT of damage.  OTOH, I also see why he'd want to act while he has some friends near.

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Mr.United_Nations

I know Israel withdrew from red flag this month, could be those jets

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)

How strange that this ''mysterious attack'' came when the Syrian Army & allies where launching an assault on jihadists in Homs and Hama.

Edited by Clockwork_Spirit

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10 hours ago, Clockwork_Spirit said:

How strange that this ''mysterious attack'' came when the Syrian Army & allies where launching an assault on jihadists in Homs and Hama.

Israel may have used the battlefield confusion to mask the action against SPECIFIC targets.  They blew up arms storage depots.  The first report was that ballistic missiles were used, then it was stated that bunker-buster bombs were used.  Huge difference in ordnance there.  If it was bombs, IAF jets/pilots had to be involved.  

The real question here is how much more will Iran take before attempting to revenge themselves?  It's quite telling that they've lost 30+ personnel, including officers/specialists and a huge inventory of precise ballistic missiles, without striking back...yet.  

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, and then said:

Israel may have used the battlefield confusion to mask the action against SPECIFIC targets.  They blew up arms storage depots.  The first report was that ballistic missiles were used, then it was stated that bunker-buster bombs were used.  Huge difference in ordnance there.  If it was bombs, IAF jets/pilots had to be involved.  

The real question here is how much more will Iran take before attempting to revenge themselves?  It's quite telling that they've lost 30+ personnel, including officers/specialists and a huge inventory of precise ballistic missiles, without striking back...yet.  

''Bashar Assad said Monday that the whole regional map is being redrawn, and that powers opposing Syria went from a phase of indirect aggression through supporting the rebels, to a direct attack after the failure and defeat they suffered on Syrian soil.''

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/explosions-reported-in-assad-army-base-north-of-homs-syria-1.6035801

I think that pretty much sums it up.

Edited by Clockwork_Spirit

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https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/who-are-iran-s-80,000-shi-ite-fighters-in-syria?utm_source=Middle+East+Forum&utm_campaign=10864d1cef-IRAN_SHIITE_FIGHTERS_CAMPAIGN_2018_04_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_086cfd423c-10864d1cef-33869925&goal=0_086cfd423c-10864d1cef-33869925

Iran seems to be openly building up and training their forces for incursions against Israel.  I think it was Levi Eshkol, Israel's PM during the 6-day war that said that the Jews in Israel weren't going to allow anyone to kill them "wholesale OR retail".  That attitude still exists today.  Iran's leadership seem to sense vulnerability and are pushing hard right now.  With all the losses and dying going on by Iranians and their proxies, I don't yet see their logic.

 

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DarkHunter

Stuff seems to be moving ever closer to a war between Israel and Iran in Syria.

In Israel the Knesset has changed the rules for declaring war, now instead of needing the whole cabinet to vote only the defense minister needs to approve for war to be declared.  Interesting in Israel that can mean one person could declare war as there has been multiple times the prime minister has also been the defense minister at the same time.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2018/05/knesset-power-pm-declare-war-single-vote-backing-180501073134283.html

Iran on the other hand is going to have a hard time waging war without a public uprising occuring.  It seems that the attitude in Iran is moving towards less involvement in Iran as the Iranian public wants the 6 to 20 billion that is being spent annually to prop up Syria to be spent at home.  Every day more higher ranking officials in Iran are condemning the current level of involvement and demanding less instead of more.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/indepth/opinion/iranians-respond-regime-leave-syria-180501081025309.html

From my perspective, which I have no doubt some will disagree with, it seems to largely just be the Revolutionary Guard/Suleimani looking for a fight with Israel with the Ayatollah having talked himself into a corner by promising revenge for any further Israeli strikes.  I can't see Russia interfering as Russian and Iranian interests have diverged significantly, Russia wanting to expand its naval base and increase its influence in the region while Iran wants a direct path to resupply Hezbollah and forward operating bases to threaten Israel.  More then likely Russia will verbally condemn Israel's actions but secretly want Israel to push Iran out of Syria or drastically limit their influence as long as Israel doesnt threaten the safety of Russia's naval base and airbase.

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, and then said:

https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/who-are-iran-s-80,000-shi-ite-fighters-in-syria?utm_source=Middle+East+Forum&utm_campaign=10864d1cef-IRAN_SHIITE_FIGHTERS_CAMPAIGN_2018_04_30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_086cfd423c-10864d1cef-33869925&goal=0_086cfd423c-10864d1cef-33869925

Iran seems to be openly building up and training their forces for incursions against Israel.  I think it was Levi Eshkol, Israel's PM during the 6-day war that said that the Jews in Israel weren't going to allow anyone to kill them "wholesale OR retail".  That attitude still exists today.  Iran's leadership seem to sense vulnerability and are pushing hard right now.  With all the losses and dying going on by Iranians and their proxies, I don't yet see their logic.

 

The Assad regime needs fresh boots on the ground to retain it's territories while they keep advancing on their ennemies. The Syrian Army is depleted, allies must provide reinforcement. Iran is training Shi'a militiamen in Syria as they did successfully in Iraq. The Iraqi Army couldn't win on it's own.

Edited by Clockwork_Spirit

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3 hours ago, Clockwork_Spirit said:

The Assad regime needs fresh boots on the ground to retain it's territories while they keep advancing on their ennemies. The Syrian Army is depleted, allies must provide reinforcement. Iran is training Shi'a militiamen in Syria as they did successfully in Iraq. The Iraqi Army couldn't win on it's own.

80K mercenaries that would be just as happy to kill Israelis as they would Syrians or plain old Sunnis of any nationality is a real problem that Israel cannot ignore.  I keep coming back to the same point.  No matter what reasoning is used to explain Iran's moves in Syria, Israel cannot simply wait and hope for the best, as they did in Lebanon with the Hizballah.  Iran is going to back away or there is going to be war.  It's really that simple.  If that war begins, Israel cannot allow Russia to force them to show restraint so there is a real chance that Putin may be faced with humiliation or risk trading Moscow for Tel Aviv.  

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, and then said:

80K mercenaries that would be just as happy to kill Israelis as they would Syrians or plain old Sunnis of any nationality is a real problem that Israel cannot ignore.  I keep coming back to the same point.  No matter what reasoning is used to explain Iran's moves in Syria, Israel cannot simply wait and hope for the best, as they did in Lebanon with the Hizballah.  Iran is going to back away or there is going to be war.  It's really that simple.  If that war begins, Israel cannot allow Russia to force them to show restraint so there is a real chance that Putin may be faced with humiliation or risk trading Moscow for Tel Aviv.  

Israel should support Assad.

[LINK] Former IDF Chief: For the time being Assad is the right solution for us

''Retired Chief of General Staff Dan Halutz wants to let Syria's strongman clear the neighborhood of Jihadists.''

 

Edited by Clockwork_Spirit
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RoofGardener
4 minutes ago, Clockwork_Spirit said:

adSo

Israel should support Assad, then there would be no need of Iranian forces in Syria.

Other than that, there one one side fighting jihadists and the other that is not. So what exactly are you complaining about6

Hmm... seeing as Syria is still at war with Israel (it never normalised relations after invading Israel in 1972) then I think inviting the IDF onto Syrian territory might be a bit politically... awkward ? 

(to say nothing of inviting the hostility of the entire "Arab" world.. including the Palestinians). 

 

 

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3 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmm... seeing as Syria is still at war with Israel (it never normalised relations after invading Israel in 1972) then I think inviting the IDF onto Syrian territory might be a bit politically... awkward ? 

(to say nothing of inviting the hostility of the entire "Arab" world.. including the Palestinians). 

 

 

Clockwork is focused on reasons why Israel should make nice with Assad while Assad is hosting Israel's number one threat in his FRONT yard.  Assad and Putin are ancillary issues in the coming war.

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmm... seeing as Syria is still at war with Israel (it never normalised relations after invading Israel in 1972) then I think inviting the IDF onto Syrian territory might be a bit politically... awkward ?

 

 

There is plenty of ways that Israel could have provided indirect, though significant support for the Syrian regime. Stabilizing the country. Instead, they choose to bet on the rebels and we know how that turned out. Russia and Iran are the only ones willing to help Assad against the Jihadists threat.

Edited by Clockwork_Spirit

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3 hours ago, Clockwork_Spirit said:

There is plenty of ways that Israel could have provided indirect, though significant support for the Syrian regime. Stabilizing the country. Instead, they choose to bet on the rebels and we know how that turned out. Russia and Iran are the only ones willing to help Assad against the Jihadists threat.

There's an old adage that one should never interfere with an enemy that is destroying themselves.  Israel didn't take an active role in Assad's troubles.  From the articles I recall as the war progressed, the Israeli government was well aware that Assad was the least terrible of many bad options.  The issue now isn't really Assad at all.  He doesn't matter any longer.  The land that WAS Syria is up for grabs and Iran and Russia have their own game in play.  If Russia doesn't bring the Ayatollahs to heel, what's left of Syria will be turned into a smoking ruin.  This is a very dangerous time. 

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Mr.United_Nations

I know Russia is friends with Syria, Iran and Israel, do you think they will stay out of it?

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