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Clockwork_Spirit

Assad is reconquering all of Syria

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)
Quote

Assad's huge victory and what it means for Israel

''The capture of areas in the Daraa province and the Jordan border crossing south of it serve as an important psychological victory for Syrian President Bashar Assad and the Russians. It's important because it is a serious blow to the morale of the Sunni rebels, who are withdrawing on almost all fronts anyway, and Daraa is a symbol for them. This is where the rebellion started seven years ago, this is where they stood their ground despite repeated assaults by the regime's army, Iranian militias and Hezbollah. That is why the fall of the province will chip away at the rebels' motivation to keep fighting.''

Source: https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5306228,00.html

What do you think?

Edited by Brother_Spirit
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kartikg

Well some sort of peace will be restored by him, if 'rebels' had won there would be no end to their internal war and the region would be split into small areas controlled by the factions. 

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and then

Bibi has been meeting regularly with Putin and just got back from Moscow a few days ago.  Israel is not going to accept an Iranian presence in Syria...period.  Short of that red line, Assad has no real worries as long as Russian aircraft keep him safe.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-departs-for-very-important-meeting-with-putin-in-moscow/

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DarkHunter

Assad is more then likely to win the civil war barring some stupid decision, which isnt impossible especially with Iran still being firmly entrenching themselves in Syria, but what happens after.

Before the civil war Syria had a population close to 21 million people, now the population is about 18 million people.  Of that approximately 18 million people left in Syria approximately 6.5 million are internally displaced.  The cost to rebuild Syria ranges anywhere from $100 billion to $1 trillion with most estimates putting it around $400 to $500 billion.  To top all of that off the Syrian military is now approximately a third of the size it was before the civil war started.

Basically Assad has no way to rebuild Syria once the war ends.  Neither Russia or Iran have the funds needed to rebuild Syria, the other gulf states and the west will refuse to provide funds with Assad still in power, which only really leaves China which will put extreme and extensive conditions on the funds that will ensure China's economy grows at the expense of Syria.  

Then there is the problem that a large portion of Syria's population is still displaced within Syria and this population is largely made up of those that tried to over throw him.  Recently Syria has passed a law that essentially confiscates the property of these displaced people unless they can prove they didnt resist Assad and gives it to those who were loyal to Assad.  With a large, poor, angry, and displaced population there is going to be long term stability problems within Syria with the potential for another flair up high and with the Syrian military being as badly mauled as it is it is questionable if they can keep control without outside help.

Even then Assad still has to take Idlib and the areas controlled by the Kurds.  Unlike with other areas Assad has taken control of there is no where else for the rebels in Idlib to go and traditionally when a group is trapped with no way to escape they tend to fight to the death.  More then likely taking Idlib is going to be extremely bloody to all sides involved.  Then there are the Kurds which have figuratively a knife to Assad's throat in that they control the oil fields.  With a weakened military Assad will either have to largely give in to the demands of the Kurds which will want either a semi or fully autonomous state or Assad will have to risk fighting an experienced and well organized enemy that could if facing defeat decide to destroy the oil fields and refineries.

Then finally there are the potential mistakes that could occur that might cost Assad victory and not all of them are under Assad's control. 

The biggest and most likely problem is Iran and their militias.  Realistically neither Assad or Russia can truly make Iran do anything in Syria as Iran is the only one country with a truly effective ground combat force in Syria.  Russia might be the only effective air power left in Syria and a powerful asset but they still depend on Iran and their militias to hold the ground and the rebels away from the airbases.  The main danger of Iran is that they decide to pick a fight with Israel inside of Syria at Assad's expense which might be a reasonable move to Iran.  Assad recently has started pushing an anti-Iran narrative, painting them as exploitive and untrustworthy allies, and it would be better for Iran to fight Israel on multiple fronts far away from their own country.  More then likely the Iranian leaders realize the perilous long term survivability Assad is in and will try to cash in earlier instead of later.

To a lesser extent there is a risk of Assad using chemical weapons in Idlib to try to expediate an end to the civil war and miscalculating any potential response from the west, especially after America decided not to enforce the deconfliction zone in southern Syria.

Bit long, bit rambling, and a bit unconnected but I'm tired.

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fred_mc

I think it will be hard for Assad to take the Kurdish areas in the north. According to what I've read, the Kurds have a well-organized strong army.

I think Assad might get help by Erdogan to fight the Kurds though. The Turks are afraid of having a strong self-ruling Kurdish area next to the Kurdish parts of Turkey. They are afraid that it might bring unrest and demands of Kurdish independence, which Turkey doesn't accept.

I'm not sure what the Russians think about the Kurds though. The Russian agenda is to do what most likely causes stability in the region, not caring about if that means a dictatorial rule. Maybe the Russians think that fighting the Kurds will lead to more instability than not doing it, that the Kurds are so strong, and are controlling so much land, so that it is better to let them control it than the long bloody battles that it would cause if Assad took it over, not to mention that the Kurds after that will probably form a resistance, which will now and then commit bloody attacks.

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Clockwork_Spirit
Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Assad is more then likely to win the civil war barring some stupid decision, which isnt impossible especially with Iran still being firmly entrenching themselves in Syria, but what happens after.

Before the civil war Syria had a population close to 21 million people, now the population is about 18 million people.  Of that approximately 18 million people left in Syria approximately 6.5 million are internally displaced.  The cost to rebuild Syria ranges anywhere from $100 billion to $1 trillion with most estimates putting it around $400 to $500 billion.  To top all of that off the Syrian military is now approximately a third of the size it was before the civil war started.

Basically Assad has no way to rebuild Syria once the war ends.  Neither Russia or Iran have the funds needed to rebuild Syria, the other gulf states and the west will refuse to provide funds with Assad still in power, which only really leaves China which will put extreme and extensive conditions on the funds that will ensure China's economy grows at the expense of Syria.  

Then there is the problem that a large portion of Syria's population is still displaced within Syria and this population is largely made up of those that tried to over throw him.  Recently Syria has passed a law that essentially confiscates the property of these displaced people unless they can prove they didnt resist Assad and gives it to those who were loyal to Assad.  With a large, poor, angry, and displaced population there is going to be long term stability problems within Syria with the potential for another flair up high and with the Syrian military being as badly mauled as it is it is questionable if they can keep control without outside help.

Even then Assad still has to take Idlib and the areas controlled by the Kurds.  Unlike with other areas Assad has taken control of there is no where else for the rebels in Idlib to go and traditionally when a group is trapped with no way to escape they tend to fight to the death.  More then likely taking Idlib is going to be extremely bloody to all sides involved.  Then there are the Kurds which have figuratively a knife to Assad's throat in that they control the oil fields.  With a weakened military Assad will either have to largely give in to the demands of the Kurds which will want either a semi or fully autonomous state or Assad will have to risk fighting an experienced and well organized enemy that could if facing defeat decide to destroy the oil fields and refineries.

Then finally there are the potential mistakes that could occur that might cost Assad victory and not all of them are under Assad's control. 

The biggest and most likely problem is Iran and their militias.  Realistically neither Assad or Russia can truly make Iran do anything in Syria as Iran is the only one country with a truly effective ground combat force in Syria.  Russia might be the only effective air power left in Syria and a powerful asset but they still depend on Iran and their militias to hold the ground and the rebels away from the airbases.  The main danger of Iran is that they decide to pick a fight with Israel inside of Syria at Assad's expense which might be a reasonable move to Iran.  Assad recently has started pushing an anti-Iran narrative, painting them as exploitive and untrustworthy allies, and it would be better for Iran to fight Israel on multiple fronts far away from their own country.  More then likely the Iranian leaders realize the perilous long term survivability Assad is in and will try to cash in earlier instead of later.

To a lesser extent there is a risk of Assad using chemical weapons in Idlib to try to expediate an end to the civil war and miscalculating any potential response from the west, especially after America decided not to enforce the deconfliction zone in southern Syria.

Bit long, bit rambling, and a bit unconnected but I'm tired.

I have been reading you for a while and I'm not here to diss you, but one must admit that everything you have predicted so far has turned out to be wrong. Not only did Assad and his troops, helped by Russian airforce are reconquering large swaths of territories and crushing the Islamist rebels but the OPCW does not support the claims that Assad gassed his own people in Douma.

Why should we believe anything you say anymore on Syria?

Edited by Brother_Spirit

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DarkHunter
7 minutes ago, Brother_Spirit said:

I have been reading you for a while and I'm not here to diss you, but one must admit that everything you have predicted so far has turned out to be wrong. Not only did Assad and his troops, helped by Russian airforce are reconquering large swaths of territories and crushing the Islamist rebels but the OPCW does not support the claims that Assad gassed his own people in Douma.

Why should we believe anything you say anymore on Syria?

First off I never said if Assad would win or lose, I only made statements on the current state of the war and general trends at that time.  While Assad has made gains they have come at a cost and he still has Idlib to conquer, which besides from having more time to fortify and in areas receiving direct Turkish support the rebels in Idlib have no place to retreat like they have in the areas Assad has conquered, and the area controlled by the Kurds.  The general strategy used by Assad has been to pound whatever the rebels held to dust then let them go to Idlib in exchange for the territory.  How is that strategy going to work on Idlib, the rebels there literallyhave no reason not to fight to the death.  Then there are the Kurds which are organized, well trained, well equipped, and control the vital oil fields and refineries which will prove extremely difficult for Assad to conquer and they have no reason to give into anything less then what they want which is essentially a decentralized Syrian government.

As for Douma and the OPCW first you are completely wrong in saying that the OPCW doesnt support Assad gassing his own people.  First off the preliminary results havent shown evidence of a nerve agent being used but of chlorine gas being used, which is still gassing his own people.  Even then that is only the preliminary results which have only tested if I remember correctly 31 of the 120 biological samples taken so there is still a good chance proof of a nerve agent will show up.  So far the results show that industrial gas cylinders that contained chlorine were dropped from some significant height on the people of Douma which matches eye witness testimony of Assad's helicopters dropping cylinders that that gassed the people of Douma.  Of course this is all ignoring the multiple times the OPCW has proven the use of nerve agents.  I will admit that I claimed a nerve agent was used in Douma and I still think in those 89 biological samples that havent been reported on yet they will find the evidence 

Lastly I dont really care if you believe me or not, essentially on this topic the posters have generally already picked a side and arent going to switch short of Assad going on live TV saying he used chemical weapons or Trump saying all this was a super elaborate false flag operation.  It's the non posters and people who browse 

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