Pilot vanished during 1978 UFO encounter

[UM-Bot]

Frederick Valentich disappeared without a trace after encountering a UFO on a flight to King Island, Tasmania.

https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/news/320136/pilot-vanished-during-1978-ufo-encounter

[Carlos Allende]

Doesn't make sense. As cool a character as a 20 year old Australian in a rented plane, why would they then go back to abducting nerds like Whitley Strieber?

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

There is some weird **** in FV’s tale. 

One explanation I heard was that because he wasn’t rated for night flight, he got turned upside down and the lights he was seeing were his own running lights. I have no idea how likely that is, because I’ve been turned upside down and even with my eyes closed I knew I was upside down.

[+OverSword]

3 hours ago, UM-Bot said:

Frederick Valentich disappeared without a trace after encountering a UFO on a flight to King Island, Tasmania.

https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/news/320136/pilot-vanished-during-1978-ufo-encounter

I've seen this on quite a few UFO programs over the years.  Poor guy, whatever happened.

[Gecks]

Even a quick google on this case gives plenty of less speculative reasoning for what happened. Not always a reliable source but wikipedia statement ...According to his father, Guido, Valentich was an ardent believer in Ufos and had been worried about being attacked by them... reasons for dissapearance include suicide, faked death and crashing into the ocean. Its not hard to summise someone obsessed with ufos would misconstrue something to be a flying saucer or simply lie about it. He seems to have had a depressing time trying to join the airforce and become a commercial pilot so any of the given reasons for the dissapearance including suicide and faked death make more sense than abduction. 

Edited July 31, 2018 by Gecks

[Fila]

5 hours ago, Gecks said:

Even a quick google on this case gives plenty of less speculative reasoning for what happened. Not always a reliable source but wikipedia statement ...According to his father, Guido, Valentich was an ardent believer in Ufos and had been worried about being attacked by them... reasons for dissapearance include suicide, faked death and crashing into the ocean. Its not hard to summise someone obsessed with ufos would misconstrue something to be a flying saucer or simply lie about it. He seems to have had a depressing time trying to join the airforce and become a commercial pilot so any of the given reasons for the dissapearance including suicide and faked death make more sense than abduction. 

So if someone is interested in UFOs.., they are not allowed to report them? Or look into them?

Using this logic.., does that mean people who disbelieve UFOs.., are biased in their analysis? Does this mean "scoffers" are biased and automatically reject anything unusual? This would explain the hastily formed conclusions, which ignore witness descriptions. Or does this only apply to one side?

Speculation is still speculation. Regardless of "likeliness".

"Most likely" does not take precedent.., as history has shown "most likely" to be wrong on many occasions.., and is often used as a scapegoat in an attempt to shut down conversations by calling other ideas "more speculative" when they are equal. One may be more likely than the other.., but this is based on individual's perspective (Feynman vs Einstein).., time and location (The Earth is flat, god is real, science is fake) and is not a constant variable.

A man purposely crashing into the ocean (or whatever) to prove he saw a UFO.., sounds like a very unlikely scenario to me.

But because he reported "strange lights".., then this makes "suicide to prove UFOs exist" as being "more likely". If he didn't report the strange lights.., we'd simply be looking at it from a crash investigation perspective.., just like any other plane crash.., and suicide would then be the least likely scenario.., over plane malfunctions, or basic pilot error being "most likely".

Edited July 31, 2018 by Fila

[Gecks]

52 minutes ago, Fila said:

So if someone is interested in UFOs.., they are not allowed to report them? Or look into them?

Using this logic.., does that mean people who disbelieve UFOs.., are biased in their analysis? Does this mean "scoffers" are biased and automatically reject anything unusual? This would explain the hastily formed conclusions, which ignore witness descriptions. Or does this only apply to one side?

Speculation is still speculation. Regardless of "likeliness".

"Most likely" does not take precedent.., as history has shown "most likely" to be wrong on many occasions.., and is often used as a scapegoat in an attempt to shut down conversations by calling other ideas "more speculative" when they are equal. One may be more likely than the other.., but this is based on individual's perspective (Feynman vs Einstein).., time and location (The Earth is flat, god is real, science is fake) and is not a constant variable.

A man purposely crashing into the ocean (or whatever) to prove he saw a UFO.., sounds like a very unlikely scenario to me.

But because he reported "strange lights".., then this makes "suicide to prove UFOs exist" as being "more likely". If he didn't report the strange lights.., we'd simply be looking at it from a crash investigation perspective.., just like any other plane crash.., and suicide would then be the least likely scenario.., over plane malfunctions, or basic pilot error being "most likely".

 Research has proposed the lights he saw were most likely mars, mercury and venus and he was unknowingly in a spiral . His reports suggest he believe hes witnessing something hovering above him.. moving 2 to 3 times faster than him with bright lights and its not a conventional aircraft. He had a paranoia for ufos, which is a reasonable standpoint for speculation hes thinking hes witnessing a flying saucer so to speak. Perhaps a person with more grounded rationale would look to other causes of what theyre witnessing? 

That article was click bait making the implication an aircraft went missing after reports of strange lights etc etc proposing the idea maybe he was encountered by aliens... secret government craft... insert conspiracy theory here. 

 

Now I never made any statement or argument he commited suicide to prove the existence of ufos... what I was stating was crashing through pilot error, suicide or faked death were all more likely than say an alien encounter... which again is the nonsensical implication of the article.

he tried and failed multiple times to get into the air force and become a pilot, these constant setbacks would no doubt been a challenge for him, perhaps he wanted to disappear? Perhaps he was depressed? 

he was paranoid ufos were out to attack him, perhaps scared he ditched and commited suicide to prevent it? 

Most likely this is just pilot error. 

I also made no statement people dont have the right to look into or research ufos. You cant make an argument people have the right to make arguments from both sides of the fence then scoff at me for making an argument from one side of it. 

 

 

[Skulduggery]

It seems likely he was in a graveyard spiral. That or he landed it. Wasn't it confirmed there was an unknown aircraft landing somewhere soon after? I seem to remember something like that.

[stereologist]

7 hours ago, Gecks said:

I also made no statement people dont have the right to look into or research ufos. You cant make an argument people have the right to make arguments from both sides of the fence then scoff at me for making an argument from one side of it. 

 

Gecks, your posts will be misrepresented time and again. It is unfortunately the norm for some posters to misrepresent and even lie about what others post.

[johncbdg]

14 hours ago, Gecks said:

Even a quick google on this case gives plenty of less speculative reasoning for what happened. Not always a reliable source but wikipedia statement ...According to his father, Guido, Valentich was an ardent believer in Ufos and had been worried about being attacked by them... reasons for dissapearance include suicide, faked death and crashing into the ocean. Its not hard to summise someone obsessed with ufos would misconstrue something to be a flying saucer or simply lie about it. He seems to have had a depressing time trying to join the airforce and become a commercial pilot so any of the given reasons for the dissapearance including suicide and faked death make more sense than abduction. 

I would go for a case of death by misadventure as he ran out of fuel then ditched in the ocean...

[Gecks]

4 hours ago, stereologist said:

Gecks, your posts will be misrepresented time and again. It is unfortunately the norm for some posters to misrepresent and even lie about what others post.

So it seems. If theres a positive to come out of it atleast it gets people talking 

[johncbdg]

14 hours ago, Gecks said:

So it seems. If theres a positive to come out of it atleast it gets people talking 

And you are right it will get people talking and that is what it is all about.

[highdesert50]

Another hypothesis might he believed that what was occurring was accurate, but he was perhaps delusional, perhaps even schizophrenic. Coincidentally, he had a long time interest and concern with regard to UFOs and abduction, Mars, Venus, Mercury and Antares would have been consistent with the four lights, schizophrenia tends to peak at young adulthood, and schizophrenics experience hallucinations and delusions. But, you say, that hypothesis seems rather far fetched as less than one percent of the population is affected by schizophrenia. Yet, if we apply Occams Razor, which argues the simpler solution tends to the correct one, then schizophrenia is probably more likely than an alien abduction. My point, though, is to search for the more plausible solution to an 'unexplained mystery' rather than leaping to the most alluring.

[psyche101]

They found a piece of the plane. It crashed into the ocean. 

A Department of Transport (DOT) investigation into Valentich's disappearance was unable to determine the cause, but that it was "presumed fatal" for Valentich.[2] Five years after Valentich's aircraft went missing, an engine cowl flap was found washed ashore on Flinders Island. In July 1983, the Bureau of Air Safety Investigation asked the Royal Australian Navy Research Laboratory (RANRL) about the likelihood that the cowl flap might have "travelled" to its ultimate position from the region where the aircraft disappeared. The bureau noted that "the part has been identified as having come from a Cessna 182 aircraft between a certain range of serial numbers" which included Valentich's aircraft.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappearance_of_Frederick_Valentich

[curiouse]

This story is a fascinating one. Seems very genuine.the audio radio of him talking to “ Ground control “ is eerie and Amazing.

a spooky tale! 

[psyche101]

8 hours ago, curiouse said:

This story is a fascinating one. Seems very genuine.the audio radio of him talking to “ Ground control “ is eerie and Amazing.

a spooky tale! 

There was a spectacular meteor shower that night, biggest one of the year. 

[L.A.T.1961]

46 minutes ago, psyche101 said:

There was a spectacular meteor shower that night, biggest one of the year. 

From what I can see the Orionid meteor shower may not have been visible until after the incident. Local daylight did not end until 19:18 hrs and then there's Civil Twilight which lasted for about an hour. The radio transmission from Valentich began at 19:06 hrs and lasted until 19:13 hrs approx. 

Page from accident report. 

[psyche101]

44 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

From what I can see the Orionid meteor shower may not have been visible until after the incident. Local daylight did not end until 19:18 hrs and then there's Civil Twilight which lasted for about an hour. The radio transmission from Valentich began at 19:06 hrs and lasted until 19:13 hrs approx. 

Page from accident report. 

That's strange, sunset was about 6:45 on the day and Mt Stromlo Observatory near Canberra also advised the period was “the peak of the meteorite stream with 10-15 sightings per hour achieved”.

[psyche101]

On 7/31/2018 at 12:22 PM, Gecks said:

Even a quick google on this case gives plenty of less speculative reasoning for what happened. Not always a reliable source but wikipedia statement ...According to his father, Guido, Valentich was an ardent believer in Ufos and had been worried about being attacked by them... reasons for dissapearance include suicide, faked death and crashing into the ocean. Its not hard to summise someone obsessed with ufos would misconstrue something to be a flying saucer or simply lie about it. He seems to have had a depressing time trying to join the airforce and become a commercial pilot so any of the given reasons for the dissapearance including suicide and faked death make more sense than abduction. 

[Gecks]

2 hours ago, psyche101 said:

Yeah... mostly sums it up . Ive got to feel for the boys father though. Nicely done on the research by the way !

Edited August 3, 2018 by Gecks

[psyche101]

52 minutes ago, Gecks said:

Yeah... mostly sums it up . Ive got to feel for the boys father though. Nicely done on the research by the way !

Thanks

I agree with you. Can't be a  easy thing to live through 

[L.A.T.1961]

10 hours ago, psyche101 said:

That's strange, sunset was about 6:45 on the day and Mt Stromlo Observatory near Canberra also advised the period was “the peak of the meteorite stream with 10-15 sightings per hour achieved”.

The Canberra site is about 500 km east of the location Valentich went missing, sunset will be earlier there. 

[psyche101]

On 8/3/2018 at 8:12 PM, L.A.T.1961 said:

The Canberra site is about 500 km east of the location Valentich went missing, sunset will be earlier there. 

Not by half an hour over 500k. And they still list that time as the peak viewing time for the meteor shower. I'm really not seeing reason to doubt the meteor shower as Valentich's description. His father is more likely the person who began promoting this as a UFO incident. When I can be bothered to search it out, there was one plane who thinks they saw his plane in the water during the search, but the dark had them abandon the search, and they could not find the same site the next day. There's no doubt he went into the ocean and that a very good meteor shower was happening when he did so. 

[L.A.T.1961]

14 hours ago, psyche101 said:

Not by half an hour over 500k. And they still list that time as the peak viewing time for the meteor shower. I'm really not seeing reason to doubt the meteor shower as Valentich's description. His father is more likely the person who began promoting this as a UFO incident. When I can be bothered to search it out, there was one plane who thinks they saw his plane in the water during the search, but the dark had them abandon the search, and they could not find the same site the next day. There's no doubt he went into the ocean and that a very good meteor shower was happening when he did so. 

Actual sunset/rise times change 1 hour for every 15° move in longitude, although there may be some local differences within time zones. Canberra is about 6° east of the incident site producing a sunset time difference of 24 min.

The time stated in the report would be actual sunset time at the location. Start time of the radio message was 19:06 local and sunset was not until 19:18 the sky would have been far too bright to see typical meteors as many are quite faint and need full darkness to spot.

The reference to Orionids peak viewing time could just be when the Earth was due to pass through the main debris stream left by Halley's Comet rather than peak time to see meteor activity for Canberra.

It is also worth noting that the radiant for the Orionids meteor shower was well below the horizon at the time and did not rise until around midnight. This would limit the amount of meteors visible, compared to the expected peak, by at least half.

Whatever the explanation is for this case I would be cautious in using astronomical solutions for lights in the sky as reported by Valentich.  

[psyche101]

On 8/7/2018 at 7:34 AM, L.A.T.1961 said:

Actual sunset/rise times change 1 hour for every 15° move in longitude, although there may be some local differences within time zones. Canberra is about 6° east of the incident site producing a sunset time difference of 24 min.

The time stated in the report would be actual sunset time at the location. Start time of the radio message was 19:06 local and sunset was not until 19:18 the sky would have been far too bright to see typical meteors as many are quite faint and need full darkness to spot.

The reference to Orionids peak viewing time could just be when the Earth was due to pass through the main debris stream left by Halley's Comet rather than peak time to see meteor activity for Canberra.

It is also worth noting that the radiant for the Orionids meteor shower was well below the horizon at the time and did not rise until around midnight. This would limit the amount of meteors visible, compared to the expected peak, by at least half.

Whatever the explanation is for this case I would be cautious in using astronomical solutions for lights in the sky as reported by Valentich.  

Well you seem insistent, so whatever you find more plausible. Be it meteors are horizon disorientation we can say with confidence that he crashed into the ocean, and as he was a very ordinary pilot, highly likely. He was excited as it was his first night flight. 

It all means the same in the end, he is dead, he crashed  and there is no reason to invoke aliens.