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Are we facing the dawn of a new age of peace?


Space Commander Travis

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It's not me saying this, but the author of this piece does take a rather more optimistic view than most of the media chatterati. So decide for yourself.

https://original.antiwar.com/justin/2018/08/01/trumps-peace-train-next-stop-afghanistan/

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4 hours ago, Vlad the Mighty said:

It's not me saying this, but the author of this piece does take a rather more optimistic view than most of the media chatterati. So decide for yourself.

https://original.antiwar.com/justin/2018/08/01/trumps-peace-train-next-stop-afghanistan/

 

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The Trumpian method inverts this procedure, much to the horror of the “experts”: instead of beginning with niggling little details, the negotiations start when the two leaders meet and establish general guidelines, which underlings are then tasked with implementing. It’s called thinking – and acting – in terms of principles, rather than focusing immediately on supposedly “pragmatic” range-of-the-moment minutiae.

Imagine if 20 years from now they are "Bill and Ted"ing Trump as the great peacemaker.

 

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Unfortunately we will not live long enough on this planet to find out. At the rate we are destroying our water and air supply we have no more than a couple of hundred years left and no government has the balls to do what is necessary to survive. Not enough time to explore. 

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I don't think so.  We've got Russian, Iranian, Saudi, Israeli, Turkish, and American troops all on the move in various countries.  Half the conflicts aren't even about Donald Trump or the US.  Natural disasters seem to be on the rise, refugees and migrants are streaming from everywhere and being denied entry, protectionist factions are rising up in various places, and governments seem to be struggling.  Politically we seem to be regressing to the tribalism that started the last couple of world wars. 

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13 hours ago, Gromdor said:

Politically we seem to be regressing to the tribalism that started the last couple of world wars. 

Yeah, I think I see that too.

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Yeah, it seems that way.  I try to glance at the BBC and the Asahi Shinbim from Japan to see other views.  it is hard to even ferret out the truth  these days.

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17 hours ago, Gromdor said:

I don't think so.  We've got Russian, Iranian, Saudi, Israeli, Turkish, and American troops all on the move in various countries.  Half the conflicts aren't even about Donald Trump or the US.  Natural disasters seem to be on the rise, refugees and migrants are streaming from everywhere and being denied entry, protectionist factions are rising up in various places, and governments seem to be struggling.  Politically we seem to be regressing to the tribalism that started the last couple of world wars. 

That's not, at all, what's happening.  We may be returning to law and order from emotionalism and injustice (which is what liberalism brings) but that only creates a fair and just society for all the people it governs and influences.  That's not a regression but a progression toward fairness, justice and freedom.  And that's a good thing. 

And no, natural disasters are not on the rise but are in heavy decline in the last 100 years.  (Just one of countless sources:  https://www.businessinsider.com/natural-disasters-used-to-be-so-much-worse-2015-2.)  Life is so much better now for a vast majority of the world population than it has been since the dawn of civilization.

 

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6 hours ago, Noxasa said:

That's not, at all, what's happening.  We may be returning to law and order from emotionalism and injustice (which is what liberalism brings) but that only creates a fair and just society for all the people it governs and influences.  That's not a regression but a progression toward fairness, justice and freedom.  And that's a good thing. 

And no, natural disasters are not on the rise but are in heavy decline in the last 100 years.  (Just one of countless sources:  https://www.businessinsider.com/natural-disasters-used-to-be-so-much-worse-2015-2.)  Life is so much better now for a vast majority of the world population than it has been since the dawn of civilization.

 

That chart is only for the death rate which naturally should be down because of advances in rescue techniques and medicine.  I'm talking about the rate of occurrence.

Not so sure about returning the law and order part creating a just society part either.  A friend of mine from Brazil just came up on a tourist visa and got pulled over for not switching lanes while passing a police car in Georgia.  They took him to the station, fingerprinted him, took a mug shot, and then told him he had to pay $500 bond, $250 citation on the spot to be released, and had to appear in court on a date past the point that he would still be in the country.  He was dumb and gave them the money.  

Now being a law abiding fellow, he calls us and faxes us all the paperwork.  We call and check and sure enough all he has is the one citation.  He doesn't have to appear in court, he didn't have to pay the money, and they basically ripped him off- probably thinking that he was an illegal alien and that he would never question or contest the ticket or what happened.   

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35 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

That chart is only for the death rate which naturally should be down because of advances in rescue techniques and medicine.  I'm talking about the rate of occurrence.

Not so sure about returning the law and order part creating a just society part either.  A friend of mine from Brazil just came up on a tourist visa and got pulled over for not switching lanes while passing a police car in Georgia.  They took him to the station, fingerprinted him, took a mug shot, and then told him he had to pay $500 bond, $250 citation on the spot to be released, and had to appear in court on a date past the point that he would still be in the country.  He was dumb and gave them the money.  

Now being a law abiding fellow, he calls us and faxes us all the paperwork.  We call and check and sure enough all he has is the one citation.  He doesn't have to appear in court, he didn't have to pay the money, and they basically ripped him off- probably thinking that he was an illegal alien and that he would never question or contest the ticket or what happened.   

Georgia... Well there you go. I spent 2 years in Georgia back in the '90s. Got pulled over several times for basically nothing.

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22 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Georgia... Well there you go. I spent 2 years in Georgia back in the '90s. Got pulled over several times for basically nothing.

Yeah, when I heard he was planning on coming to Miami, buying a Harley, and then doing a cross country ride to Sturgis I did the big eye roll.

Not to bash the South East, but he pretty much got the treatment that I was expecting.  The whole trip went south quick for him.  His riding partner backed out and then the citation changed his mind real quick.  Two Brazilians with mediocre English skills traveling 2200 miles.  Yeah,  what could go wrong.......  It's a shame that he had to go home with such a bad taste in his mouth. 

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10 hours ago, Noxasa said:

That's not, at all, what's happening.  We may be returning to law and order from emotionalism and injustice (which is what liberalism brings) but that only creates a fair and just society for all the people it governs and influences.  That's not a regression but a progression toward fairness, justice and freedom.  And that's a good thing. 

And no, natural disasters are not on the rise but are in heavy decline in the last 100 years.  (Just one of countless sources:  https://www.businessinsider.com/natural-disasters-used-to-be-so-much-worse-2015-2.)  Life is so much better now for a vast majority of the world population than it has been since the dawn of civilization.

I am not sure I follow this.  President Trump epitomizes emotionalism over facts.  Our society has not become more fair and just, if anything, more intolerant and suspicious of anybody that doesn't look like us (white European immigrants that we are).  

Life is  truly much better now for the rest of the world than it has ever been.  There are 700 million near middle class people in China alone.  That is great.  Is that our doing or China's?  Is the American middle class doing better? That would be the question that concerns me more.  

As for natural disasters, several sources including this one says they are on the rise.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40572191?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

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On 8/3/2018 at 1:51 AM, Vlad the Mighty said:

It's not me saying this, but the author of this piece does take a rather more optimistic view than most of the media chatterati. So decide for yourself.

https://original.antiwar.com/justin/2018/08/01/trumps-peace-train-next-stop-afghanistan/

Good article, especially about the lunacy of the Left "trying to Criminalize Diplomacy".... as long as it is Trump that is the diplomat.

These guys are literally insane and lying through their teeth at the same time. Its like they wanted Trump to walk up and punch Putin in the nose. And if he had, they would have been angry that he didn't use a Hammer. And if he had used a Hammer, they would have been outraged that he didn't hit Putin twice, with a sledgehammer! 

 

Historically speaking, a major shift is happening in Trashcanistan if the people are truly sick of warfare. War is their national sport, but seeing as how it has been going non-stop since 1977 I guess something had to break. In this case it is a Medieval culture and a hopelessly backwards cult of the patriarchy that produces nothing by repression and violence. People finally had enough of a model that does not work, and are walking away from it. The Old Guard never change, they never relax their stance on the Koran any more than they try to reverse the tide of censorship at Facebook. The Old Guard is incapable of changing their minds about Marx or God or whatever.... but they can be deprived of power and made to fade away.

And your children are the only people who will make it happen.

No wonder the Establishment has been pushing abortion for half a century, eh? 

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On 8/3/2018 at 9:01 AM, DieChecker said:

 

Imagine if 20 years from now they are "Bill and Ted"ing Trump as the great peacemaker.

 

Then there has to be a Rufus guiding him. Putin must be his Rufus.

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16 hours ago, F3SS said:

Then there has to be a Rufus guiding him. Putin must be his Rufus.

How many millions of dollars have they paid Trump for speaking engagements?  (whoops, that was Clinton!)

How many Uranium mines did Trump sell them?  (Clinton again, different one)

Okay, I'll make this easy; how many Russians did you find hiding under your bed tonight, Senator McCarthy? ^_^

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I think to think of this as a new age of peace is the wrong way to think about it.  There has never been an age of peace, only ages of prosperity.  Someone had plotted the start and end dates of every recorded conflict in the last 4000 years and they determined that there was only something like 6 days that went conflict free.  These ages have been marked by dominance, which isn't a lack of hostilities but a period of relative peace.  With 7 billion people on this planet, you can’t make everyone happy.  Some entity provided an environment conducive to civilization.  I.e. Roman, British, America are but a few.  These are perhaps the best bulwark examples.  There are others like Mongol, Ottoman, Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, etc. that produced relative peace but if people were given a choice, which empire would they prefer to be in?  We are facing the dawn of a new period.  The question is, which one?  One based in freedom protected by a Constitutional Republic?  Or one based in enslavement by some flavor of Socialism?

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3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

...  With 7 billion people on this planet, you can’t make everyone happy. 

Honestly, I don't think you could make everyone happy if there were just Seven people on this Planet. 

3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

The question is, which one?  One based in freedom protected by a Constitutional Republic?  Or one based in enslavement by some flavor of Socialism?

How about the peace of people leaving each other alone, ignoring the Gossips and the Control Freaks and the Malcontents who just want to Troll everyone because they are hollow inside and have no idea what else to do?

A society built on letting people be is what I would settle for. 

And, it also looks like the least likely thing possible at this point. Mutual respect is a forgotten concept. 

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On 8/4/2018 at 11:57 AM, Tatetopa said:

I am not sure I follow this.  President Trump epitomizes emotionalism over facts.  Our society has not become more fair and just, if anything, more intolerant and suspicious of anybody that doesn't look like us (white European immigrants that we are).  

I didn't say anything about "facts" I compared emotionalism to the rule of law.  Laws are important because they are the result of deliberative contemplation and debate from all types of people in society.  If you want to talk about facts...the fact is that we do have immigration laws that were very deliberately debated and decided upon in the not too distant past.  All the emotional arguments were balanced with the practical arguments of national security, social spending, use of infrastructure/resources, budgets, taxes and much more.  Our laws exist because they are society's best attempt to make just, fair and appropriate policy for all the people involved, including those wanting to come to America for a better life.  We do have procedures that immigrants can go through to enter the U.S. legally.  People who are poor and desire a better life should go through the legal immigration process which would make them welcome in the U.S.  There's no reason other than valid asylum claims that justifies breaking our well deliberated laws to enter our country without permission.  And most asylum cases can be handled at our embassies and consulates around the world long before they reach a U.S. border.

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Life is  truly much better now for the rest of the world than it has ever been.  There are 700 million near middle class people in China alone.  That is great.  Is that our doing or China's?  Is the American middle class doing better? That would be the question that concerns me more.  

China's success only exists because of America's capitalistic consumer driven system that we've allowed them to take advantage of...and at serious peril to American's long term way of life and standard of living.  Another thing Trump is trying to correct.  I won't even get into why communistic and socialistic societies cannot economically survive on their own...but they just can't (i.e. Venezuela, Greece, etc.)  Eventually they all go down the same path unless austerity efforts are allowed to progress, and even then it's hard to dig their way out.

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As for natural disasters, several sources including this one says they are on the rise.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40572191?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

 

 

Well, I've studied some of these papers and unfortunately, this topic is much more complex than would be feasible in this thread or forum.  I've looked at many studies like this to satisfy my own curiosity and for every one that I looked at, when I plotted the raw data it became clear that there were huge problems with the data.  For instance, there were large gaps in data in the early to mid 1900's.  The data in these studies tend to ignore those gaps and treat the missing data as zero.   But that's not the most important aspect of this missing data.  The fact that there are large blocks of missing data indicates that the record keeping 50+ years ago was very poor.  Throughout the years and decades our record keeping has become more and more robust but the distant data just isn't there to make the claims of many fold increases in natural disasters in the world.  This trend of better data collection tends to run up the numbers as the years go by.  It's obvious when you look at the actual raw data that they cannot make the claims they do about three or five times increases in natural disasters, at least not unless they have some ulterior motives to make those claims.  The data sampling just doesn't support it. 

They also don't take into consideration population movement into high risk areas over the last 100+ years.  So, for instance, reported flooding natural disasters are much higher now because people are choosing to live in high risk flood plains whereas 100 years ago these areas were sparsely populated and floods were not recorded as disasters...back then it was just nature, which is why older flooding data has huge holes in it as well

Finally, if you just look at the raw data concerning...say... hurricane landfalls and intensity in the U.S., earthquakes, fires, volcanic activity, tornadoes, etc.  The individual data in these areas do not show increases in the last 30 or so years.  Most of the time they show no real average year to year change and in some cases they show declines.

All I can suggest is that people do their own research if you have time.  Get the raw data and analyze it, plot it out.  It may not show what some people claim that it shows.

 

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