Raptor Witness Posted August 22, 2018 #1 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Today is Hawaii's statehood birthday. It's also the day that hurricane watches went up, for the most powerful hurricane to ever threaten the island chain. Although not officially a Category 5 yet, earlier today, hurricane Lane's winds were sampled in the eyewall up to 165 mph, and his pressure has dropped to Category 5 levels at 929 mb. The brave souls who are in the path of this monster, may find a Maria-like experience, in their future. Another tourist destination, annihilated ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 22, 2018 Author #2 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 620 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018 ...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has continued to intensify this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h), making Lane an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour. SUMMARY OF 620 PM HST...0420 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE..922 MB...27.23 INCHES $$ Forecaster Birchard/Jacobson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+and-then Posted August 22, 2018 #3 Share Posted August 22, 2018 I hope that president Trump's people have learned the lesson from Bush/Katrina and send supplies and help regardless of what the governor may actually ask for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 22, 2018 Author #4 Share Posted August 22, 2018 (edited) 43 minutes ago, and then said: I hope that president Trump's people have learned the lesson from Bush/Katrina and send supplies and help regardless of what the governor may actually ask for. I suspect because there's a military base on Oahu, they will have more help than Puerto Rico. I arrived on Kauai, almost immediately after hurricane Inki hit in 1992, and the military support was amazing. However, if this becomes a multiple island disaster, I think the chances of seeing something similar to what we saw in Puerto Rico, increases. No matter what people may believe about modern transportation, Hawaii is still an isolated place, and the logistics of finding the amount of labor and materials you need to affect repairs, is very challenging. There just aren't enough skilled people living there, and many of those who come won't stay long enough make a big dent in the reconstruction. The cost of living is high and gets higher over time, following one of these events, so contractor's and laborers take an enormous risk. Unless you just happen to like to surf, there's not a lot to do, either. Hawaii also has lots of mosquitos and it rains several times a day. Almost any housing you can find is damaged, it's hot and humid, and at night the helicopters and generators and mosquitos will drain your peace of mind. Alcohol is about the only comfort, and for the unmarried, younger men, there were prostitutes who flew over from the mainland to cash in. This could be much worse than Iniki, with a prolonged recovery effort spanning at least 2 years. Edited August 22, 2018 by Raptor Witness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Not A Rockstar Posted August 22, 2018 #5 Share Posted August 22, 2018 The good news is it is moving relatively fast, which really is a break as long as it keeps on trucking or even speeds up forward. The bad news is the eye stays over water. The good news is Hawaii is better prepared than Puerto Rico was, with a base there and supplies in place by FEMA. The bad news is the rains and the mountains, possible mudslides and the like, plus a lot of downed trees. Florida and the Southern areas get these so often we get some preparation and thinned out trees, but Hawaii is gonna sting a bit from this. The downed trees are possibly going to be a real issue at first to get around for a day or two. Hope they have chainsaws and gas for them. My thoughts are with Hawaii, it is all I can do :/ Maybe our Hawaiian members can keep us posted here as possible before, during and after so we know truth and facts about it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Not A Rockstar Posted August 22, 2018 #6 Share Posted August 22, 2018 58 minutes ago, and then said: I hope that president Trump's people have learned the lesson from Bush/Katrina and send supplies and help regardless of what the governor may actually ask for. in the tape the Gov there says FEMA already has supplies on the ground so we can hope for better response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skliss Posted August 22, 2018 #7 Share Posted August 22, 2018 4 hours ago, Raptor Witness said: I suspect because there's a military base on Oahu, they will have more help than Puerto Rico. I arrived on Kauai, almost immediately after hurricane Inki hit in 1992, and the military support was amazing. However, if this becomes a multiple island disaster, I think the chances of seeing something similar to what we saw in Puerto Rico, increases. No matter what people may believe about modern transportation, Hawaii is still an isolated place, and the logistics of finding the amount of labor and materials you need to affect repairs, is very challenging. There just aren't enough skilled people living there, and many of those who come won't stay long enough make a big dent in the reconstruction. The cost of living is high and gets higher over time, following one of these events, so contractor's and laborers take an enormous risk. Unless you just happen to like to surf, there's not a lot to do, either. Hawaii also has lots of mosquitos and it rains several times a day. Almost any housing you can find is damaged, it's hot and humid, and at night the helicopters and generators and mosquitos will drain your peace of mind. Alcohol is about the only comfort, and for the unmarried, younger men, there were prostitutes who flew over from the mainland to cash in. This could be much worse than Iniki, with a prolonged recovery effort spanning at least 2 years. You've just stated many of the reasons my niece and her family just moved from there to Orlando, Fla. She said they are renting a place over double the size of the one they had in HI for $1,000 less a month..crazy, right? I'm glad they are missing the hurricane but alot of her husbands family are still there. Fingers crossed for all of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 22, 2018 Author #8 Share Posted August 22, 2018 (edited) There are still big questions about this track, until we see how the storm interacts with the islands. Sometimes we see islands in the Caribbean attract hurricanes, like a magnet, due to the air flowing around them. This island interaction is very tricky stuff ... and I wouldn't take much comfort in the center line of the official track. There is no good news, yet. Take it away Levi Cowan ... Edited August 22, 2018 by Raptor Witness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 22, 2018 Author #9 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Source Link: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 22, 2018 Author #10 Share Posted August 22, 2018 The valley's appear full of houses in those Honolulu foothills ... I'm not sure this is a good situation if heavy rains pour into those valleys. Some folks might get washed into the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.A.T.1961 Posted August 22, 2018 #11 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Lane is now rated a cat 4 hurricane. The track seems to keep the highest winds away from the islands, rain and some storm surge will be more of a worry I would think. BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 32 - "Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Not A Rockstar Posted August 23, 2018 #12 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Planning and Zoning refuses ever to do their jobs with worst case weather in mind :/ The public would never let them LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 23, 2018 Author #13 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Anytime we see a turn like this, adjacent to a land area, outside the arc, the flooding is usually catastrophic. If I were In charge of the emergency recovery effort, I would guess that Hawaii will need much more than what FEMA can offer. If this event is the scene I dreamed out, years ago, where I saw bodies in the streams leading into an ocean, then the actual danger is not yet fully realized by anyone, and won’t be until it’s too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 23, 2018 Author #14 Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) It has begun ..... Edited August 23, 2018 by Raptor Witness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnchorSteam Posted August 23, 2018 #15 Share Posted August 23, 2018 On 8/22/2018 at 8:28 AM, Raptor Witness said: Source Link: NICE picture, that's just awesome. But... if it is spinning counter-clockwise or in the Pacific, isn't it called a "Typhoon"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 23, 2018 Author #16 Share Posted August 23, 2018 23 minutes ago, AnchorSteam said: NICE picture, that's just awesome. But... if it is spinning counter-clockwise or in the Pacific, isn't it called a "Typhoon"? West Pacific .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWoo7 Posted August 23, 2018 #17 Share Posted August 23, 2018 (edited) Should try a few of these why you all are watching the screens::::: Hawaii cake, GREAT! with gravy too! . . Edited August 23, 2018 by MWoo7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 24, 2018 Author #18 Share Posted August 24, 2018 It indeed appears that Lane turned due north as it crossed the Big Island wake, created by the trade winds, seen above. The complacency reminds me of the days leading up to hurricane Katrina’s landfall, when a face of death, by the artist Moreno suddenly appeared on the Mars Rover Blog .... the writer calling that storm, “the poison wind.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 24, 2018 Author #19 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Two good views regarding model divergence of the westward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 24, 2018 Author #20 Share Posted August 24, 2018 That's some amazing outflow in the upper levels, judging from all those fine toothed feathers fanning out .... despite the shear, I'd say this thing is far from being over, as a hurricane. A thing of artful beauty, if it wasn't so deadly serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Not A Rockstar Posted August 24, 2018 #21 Share Posted August 24, 2018 yeah it is getting torn up and the eye wall is fluctuating a lot which is good news. It is hanging out though and that is bad news. That is a crap ton of water coming down and mud slides are a major danger there close as they have allowed building up the sides. as for complacency, what can anyone do until it passes? Hunker down and wait it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 24, 2018 Author #22 Share Posted August 24, 2018 4 hours ago, Not A Rockstar said: .......as for complacency, what can anyone do until it passes? Hunker down and wait it out. At Least they had sense enough to blow the sirens last night, island wide. At this point Lane is moving NNE, which according to my favorite forecaster, is The Worst Case Scenario..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 24, 2018 Author #23 Share Posted August 24, 2018 (edited) Visible, Infrared, and internal scan via radar imagery .... very unusual appearance in the infrared, which some have described as looking like a natural gas pilot light. Edited August 24, 2018 by Raptor Witness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Not A Rockstar Posted August 25, 2018 #24 Share Posted August 25, 2018 At the bottom of a good summary article is a tab with over 100 pictures of the effects on the ground for those interested. The fires are ironic https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2018-08-23-hurricane-lane-impacts-hawaii-honolulu-maui-hilo @Raptor Witness I like your weather guy, he seems to cut to the chase better than the rest I am finding for news about it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptor Witness Posted August 25, 2018 Author #25 Share Posted August 25, 2018 (edited) Lane has decoupled from the low level circulation. It's anybody's guess how much fury is left in his wake ... but so far, the Big Island has taken the brunt of the hit. Edited August 25, 2018 by Raptor Witness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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