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Black Red Devil

Syria's war: Who controls what?

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Black Red Devil

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Since March 2011, fighting in Syria has killed an estimated 465,000 people, injured more than one million, and forced about 12 million people - or half the country's pre-war population - from their homes. 

Forces loyal to the Syrian government have retaken major rebel strongholds, as well as large swaths of territory in the country's south in recent months.

Here's a look at who controls what in Syria: 

image.png.ab833adc50d164a29cba7b3049ecc6dd.png

It'll be interesting to see what Assad and the Russians do with the areas occupied by Turkey and the Kurds once they finish off the Rebels and IS.

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and then

Until they get the Iranians completely out of Syria, they will simply have to accept an American presence in about 30% of the northeast of the country.

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Captain Risky

@ Black Red Devil 

i think the Turks would want guarantees about the Kurds living in the north east of Syria. and the Turks would what to re-locate all the refugees that Turkey is hosting before they leave. 

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14 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

@ Black Red Devil 

i think the Turks would want guarantees about the Kurds living in the north east of Syria. and the Turks would what to re-locate all the refugees that Turkey is hosting before they leave. 

The Kurds may decide that the insurgency path is all they have left after America screws them over.  Hell, I wouldn't blame them if they started attacking US.

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Black Red Devil

Definitely the Kurds would deserve their own country but Turkey has too much strategic influence for that to happen.  The way I see it, I don't see Assad attacking the Kurds because it would 1) end in a bloody war and I doubt he has the military power to defeat them and above all, 2) there were more than 2 million ethnic Kurds living in Syria before the war and probably even more now, so you'd be looking down the barrel of another humanitarian crisis the world (UN) could not ignore. 

Furthermore, I doubt Putin would get his troops to heavily assist in a hypothetical conflict between Assad and the Kurds because it could end up drawing in the Americans.  One thing is helping Assad get his country back from insurgents and murderous rebels, another is getting involved in a civil war against a large ethnic group who were allies with the US against IS.  Putin would be happy to keep his ally and let them handle their own internal conflicts.

The Kurds want their autonomy but know the Turks will never allow a Kurdistan on their border with 15 million living inside their own territory and then you have another 8 million ethnic Kurds living in Iran and 5 million in Iraq, So nobody in the region is going to support them in their quest.

I think if the Turks were to withdraw from the occupied Afrin district in North West Syria, Kurds would have to abandon their Rights to self determination.  If the Kurds are to do so they would need guarantees from Assad he grants them more autonomy.  Before the civil war in Syria, Kurds weren't allowed to speak their language, teach their history, own or possess any businesses or property unless they were registered under Arabic names.  Somewhere something will have to give otherwise we'll have a stalemate for years and they'll never recover.

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Black Red Devil
On 8/23/2018 at 4:26 PM, and then said:

Until they get the Iranians completely out of Syria, they will simply have to accept an American presence in about 30% of the northeast of the country.

Don't think that will happen.

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and then
3 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Don't think that will happen.

Probably not and that's perfectly okay.  I'd be content watching the IRGC bleed indefinitely.  It might teach Soleimani a little humility.

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Sir Smoke aLot
On 8/23/2018 at 3:46 AM, Black Red Devil said:

It'll be interesting to see what Assad and the Russians do with the areas occupied by Turkey and the Kurds once they finish off the Rebels and IS.

I surely do hope for peaceful reintegration of Kurd held areas (SDF part in yellow on the map). There were many rumors about talks being held on numerous occasions, especially recently. Fingers crossed, i hope to see Syria became what it was before, secular and civilized country with government control over it's territory. As Angela Merkel once said, when it's about security of people and lives state has monopoly of power.

 

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Captain Risky
On 25/08/2018 at 5:18 PM, Sir Smoke aLot said:

I surely do hope for peaceful reintegration of Kurd held areas (SDF part in yellow on the map). There were many rumors about talks being held on numerous occasions, especially recently. Fingers crossed, i hope to see Syria became what it was before, secular and civilized country with government control over it's territory. As Angela Merkel once said, when it's about security of people and lives state has monopoly of power.

 

...can’t fault what you’ve said but it would seem pretty surreal if everybody and everything just went back to normal... not to mention the pointlessness of the entire war. 

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Sir Smoke aLot
On 9/24/2018 at 1:20 PM, Captain Risky said:

...can’t fault what you’ve said but it would seem pretty surreal if everybody and everything just went back to normal... not to mention the pointlessness of the entire war. 

Of course, so far many events were pretty surreal for civilized world, so to say. But it all happened. Hopefully this recent addition (Russian S300 shipment to Syria deal is renewed) to Syrian air defense will make one more step towards lasting peace and stability in Syria.

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The Caspian Hare

Maybe it's time we go?? ISIS is crushed and Syria can mop up the rest. Nobody likes foreign troops in their own country.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20180930/syria-tells-us-french-and-turkish-occupying-forces-to-withdraw-immediately

Quote

Syria's foreign minister on Saturday denounced US, French and Turkish forces operating in his country as "occupying forces" and demanded that they leave immediately.

 

 

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Captain Risky
2 hours ago, Sir Smoke aLot said:

Of course, so far many events were pretty surreal for civilized world, so to say. But it all happened. Hopefully this recent addition (Russian S300 shipment to Syria deal is renewed) to Syrian air defense will make one more step towards lasting peace and stability in Syria.

yeah the S-300 and Russian and Assad control of Syria's borders will go a long way to settling this pointless war. a perfect and dare i say unfortunate example of the good guy's getting it wrong and the bad guy's getting it right. 

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On 9/30/2018 at 4:26 AM, Sir Smoke aLot said:

(Russian S300 shipment to Syria deal is renewed) to Syrian air defense will make one more step towards lasting peace and stability in Syria.

It might appear so but Israel is determined to remove the Iranian presence from Syria and has said it will go to war if that's what it takes to accomplish that goal.  If the Iranians continue to refuse, as I'm sure they will, and Russia attempts to shoot down an Israeli aircraft that is striking Iranian assets then Syria's troubles are going to become much, much worse.  Neither Russia nor Iran have the firepower in the region to seriously challenge Israel if a war starts.  It could get really bad, really quick.  Israel really doesn't have a choice.  They can't let Iran build another Hizballah.  

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RoofGardener
1 hour ago, and then said:

It might appear so but Israel is determined to remove the Iranian presence from Syria and has said it will go to war if that's what it takes to accomplish that goal.  If the Iranians continue to refuse, as I'm sure they will, and Russia attempts to shoot down an Israeli aircraft that is striking Iranian assets then Syria's troubles are going to become much, much worse.  Neither Russia nor Iran have the firepower in the region to seriously challenge Israel if a war starts.  It could get really bad, really quick.  Israel really doesn't have a choice.  They can't let Iran build another Hizballah.  

Russia wouldn't attempt to shoot down an Israeli aircraft. They might, however, provide Assad with more anti-aircraft missile batteries, and allow the Syrians to them down themselves ? 

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Coil


If some kind of military assistance will continue to be carried out by the rebels and igil or other groups, then this war can last indefinitely. And if the goal of external forces is only to bring down the Assad regime and establish its own manual, then this is too high a price paid by the country and the people. I see a way out in order to disarm all the forces opposing the authorities and to interrupt any supply of weapons to the country, also to withdraw Russia and continue to hold elections in the country without outside influence and to restore the destroyed regions. In Syria, according to some sources, the world's third largest oil reserve is found, and from there the war is going on and who will be in power will control oil... and its geographical position is even more advantageous than Saudi Arabia and Kuwait as the country is closer to Europe and through Turkey, you can quickly throw a pipe that is unprofitable for America and Russia, Arabs and other forces, therefore the state of war is beneficial to almost all and even more profitable to put their puppet president and get control of oil after the war.

 

 

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7 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Russia wouldn't attempt to shoot down an Israeli aircraft. They might, however, provide Assad with more anti-aircraft missile batteries, and allow the Syrians to them down themselves ? 

The effect would be the same.  Israel would then destroy Syria's new toys.  I suspect Russian personnel would be training and advising and would get killed in the melee that followed.

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6 hours ago, Coil said:

therefore the state of war is beneficial to almost all and even more profitable to put their puppet president and get control of oil after the war.

That oil is found under the Golan Heights, currently controlled by Israel.  Syria's future does not look bright.

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Coil
31 minutes ago, and then said:

That oil is found under the Golan Heights, currently controlled by Israel.  Syria's future does not look bright.

 

At the end of 2012, oil deposits were discovered in Syria with an estimated volume of 37 billion tons at a depth of only 250 meters! Dr. Imad Fausi Shuazhbi, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies in Damascus, shared information on these oil and gas reserves with the Lebanese television channel Al Majjaddin.

FOURTEEN oil and gas basins were found in the Syrian territorial waters, the data on which were still kept secret. Exploratory drilling was performed by the Norwegian company "Ancis".

Shujbi also said that four more oil fields are located below the horizon of these 14 fields, which extend from the Lebanese border to the Syrian city of Banias. Thus, the estimated volume of oil is such that the volume of oil production in Syria can be compared with the current oil production in Kuwait. The four other oil fields, which also extend under the territory of Lebanon, Cyprus and Israel, are approximately comparable in size to the above.

As he explained, thanks to the open fields, Syria could break out to fourth place in the world. And the volume of oil that Syria will be able to produce per day will reach 6-7 million barrels per day (for comparison, Saudi Arabia produces 12 million barrels per day).

Shuyzhbi said that large, not yet developed reserves of natural gas were also discovered in Syria. These deposits are located in the Kara region. When he was asked whether it was profitable that such energy resources were at the disposal of a politically very unstable region, Dr. Shouzhbi replied that these oil reserves now became a real "curse" for Syria.

Thus, Syria has become a strategic place not only for the Middle East, but for the whole world. As Dr. Shuazhbi stressed, it was precisely because of this that the “undeclared war” against Syria and the “war for natural gas and pipelines” arose.

And the one who started this war against Syria, plans to then stretch the gas pipeline throughout the territory of "devastated" Syria from Qatar to Europe. According to the expert, gas from Qatar is closer to Europe than gas from Russia. Therefore, when the pipelines are laid through the territory of Syria, natural gas from Qatar will cost Europe less than natural gas from Russia.

Edited by Coil
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Coil
1 hour ago, and then said:

That oil is found under the Golan Heights, currently controlled by Israel.  Syria's future does not look bright.


After this article, I understand why it is beneficial for Russia to protect Assad and not let him sell oil and gas to Europe, and if Assad falls, foreign companies will come there that quickly start supplying oil to Europe and thus Russia becomes an obstacle to the development of Syria. Suppose the Assad regime is overthrown, Russia leaves with its tail between its legs and what will happen next? .What do you think about this?

After all, it is beneficial for America to stop Russia's energy expansion into Europe, they are even against the construction of the North Stream-2 and threaten Europe with sanctions.

 

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and then

I think that Russia is being set up by circumstances to decide to take Israel on. The potential gains will be irresistible but they will need the political cover of a coalition.  When this war comes, Russia and her allies will be soundly defeated,

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Coil
38 minutes ago, and then said:

I think that Russia is being set up by circumstances to decide to take Israel on. The potential gains will be irresistible but they will need the political cover of a coalition.  When this war comes, Russia and her allies will be soundly defeated,

And who will win Russia and why haven’t they won yet?

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and then

I didn't mean that Russia would be conquered or invaded.  I just meant that all the countries that come to destroy Israel will be devastated.  Read Ezekiel chapter 38 and its commentary.  It even mentions the nations of the coalition.

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RoofGardener
14 hours ago, Coil said:

 

At the end of 2012, oil deposits were discovered in Syria with an estimated volume of 37 billion tons at a depth of only 250 meters! Dr. Imad Fausi Shuazhbi, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies in Damascus, shared information on these oil and gas reserves with the Lebanese television channel Al Majjaddin.

FOURTEEN oil and gas basins were found in the Syrian territorial waters, the data on which were still kept secret. Exploratory drilling was performed by the Norwegian company "Ancis".

Shujbi also said that four more oil fields are located below the horizon of these 14 fields, which extend from the Lebanese border to the Syrian city of Banias. Thus, the estimated volume of oil is such that the volume of oil production in Syria can be compared with the current oil production in Kuwait. The four other oil fields, which also extend under the territory of Lebanon, Cyprus and Israel, are approximately comparable in size to the above.

As he explained, thanks to the open fields, Syria could break out to fourth place in the world. And the volume of oil that Syria will be able to produce per day will reach 6-7 million barrels per day (for comparison, Saudi Arabia produces 12 million barrels per day).

Shuyzhbi said that large, not yet developed reserves of natural gas were also discovered in Syria. These deposits are located in the Kara region. When he was asked whether it was profitable that such energy resources were at the disposal of a politically very unstable region, Dr. Shouzhbi replied that these oil reserves now became a real "curse" for Syria.

Thus, Syria has become a strategic place not only for the Middle East, but for the whole world. As Dr. Shuazhbi stressed, it was precisely because of this that the “undeclared war” against Syria and the “war for natural gas and pipelines” arose.

And the one who started this war against Syria, plans to then stretch the gas pipeline throughout the territory of "devastated" Syria from Qatar to Europe. According to the expert, gas from Qatar is closer to Europe than gas from Russia. Therefore, when the pipelines are laid through the territory of Syria, natural gas from Qatar will cost Europe less than natural gas from Russia.

Hmm... I'd be cautious of this. There was/is some test drilling going on in the Golan Heights over the last couple of years, under Israeli supervision, but the presence of oil has not been independently confirmed. 

Edited by RoofGardener

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Sir Smoke aLot
On 10/2/2018 at 7:03 AM, and then said:

Neither Russia nor Iran have the firepower in the region to seriously challenge Israel if a war starts.

Hezbollah did stand against Israel and it has deterrence since 2006 (Nasrallah famous speech nicknamed ''Surprises''). Russia and Iran are way stronger, especially in conventional warfare and they but to even consider such confrontation is totally contrary to every rule of diplomacy so far. 

Iran has stated numerous times that it has problem with Zionist regime and not people of Israel. So they wont erase Israel from the face of the Earth, even tho they could with missile barrages from Iranian territory (check Iranian attacks against Isis targets in Syria).

It's also not in Russian interests to confront NATO/Israel directly, hence shipment of S300 to Syria. Let me just say that S300 is defensive tool, not weapon of aggression so everyone who is bothered by the fact that Syria has S300 is aggressor by his nature.

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Sir Smoke aLot
18 hours ago, and then said:

That oil is found under the Golan Heights, currently controlled by Israel.  Syria's future does not look bright.

As i found earlier it seems that Israel has sold rights for exploitation of that oil long time ago :D

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