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ExpandMyMind

Brexit costing Britain £500m a week

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ExpandMyMind
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Brexit is already costing the public purse £500m a week, new research has found – a stark contrast to the £350m “dividend”promised by the Leave campaign. The Centre for European Reform’s analysis also suggests that the government’s austerity drive would be on the way to completion had Britain voted to stay in the European Union.

It shows that the UK economy is already 2.5% smaller than it would have been had Remain won the referendum. Public finances have been dented by £26bn a year, more than half of the defence budget. This translates to a penalty of £500m a week, a figure that is growing.

Guardian

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RoofGardener

Absolute and utter RUBBISH. 

The analysis looks at the real-world GPD growth of the UK, and then compares it with a computer-simulated 'estimate' of what GDP might have been if we had not voted to leave. This latter is based on the GDP growth of various other countries, includes non-EU countries. As a key example, 50% of the "no-brexit" estimate is the result of growth in the USA, which is - of course - NOT reflected anywhere in the EU. The estimate is obviously deeply flawed. 

The Centre for European Reform has a reputation of being a pro-EU organisation. It is primarily funded by big European businesses. 

Sorry, but I find its conclusions deeply flawed, and its report headline highly suspect. 

 

 

 

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stevewinn
Posted (edited)

@ExpandMyMind captain risky as already beaten you to it in the brexit thread.

The fact the UK economy as continued to grow ever since the referendum, I asked him where this 2.5% retraction as come from. Provided him the links. We still await him to show us. Maybe you can help him. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-growth-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/375195/gdp-growth-forecast-comparison-uk/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

 

Edited by stevewinn

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RabidMongoose
6 hours ago, ExpandMyMind said:

So the remainders tell the public its doom and gloom having a negative impact on the economy.

And the leavers get the blame.

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itsnotoutthere

It's from the Guardian, so can be ignored.

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itsnotoutthere
Posted (edited)

 

 

Not sure if I've posted this before, but below is one guys response on a Guardian comment piece who like me is obviously fed up with the bogus 'brexiters are all racists' argument which is all consuming in that rag.

 

 

Chris Toms  Tunny 1d ago 

24
25
Ok I will try and set this out:-
I am an out and proud Brexiteer who’s attitude to Leaving is to call up the EU and ask “is next Tuesday good for you. I am happy to ‘do a deal’ and to have transition period etc. And no doubt buckets of fudge will be deployed to keep the Irish happy.
I am a lawyer and have studied international and European law. I have been to the commission and the EU parliament. I voted solid Lib dem until 2015 and once was a supporter of joining Shengen and The Euro!
So why the change of view:?
Sorry to disappoint the Howling mob of remainers but it had nothing to do:-
What was on the side of any bus
Xenophobia
Some foggy nostalgic desire for empire
Blue passports.

Reasons for my change of Views

1) The increasing realisation the EU is a massive German economic subsidy. The depressed value of the Euro relative to the performance of the German economy means their goods on international markets are hugely subsidised. They are and any economist of note will confirm it. Germany has run for years an illegal budget surplus but no one does anything about it.
The way the EU treated and continues to treat Greece. Guess which countries banks have the biggest exposure to Greek debt. Guess which country leads the EU defiance of IMF requests for Greek Debt relief….

2) The Migrant worker Shell game. This is the process by which a company can by setting up a property renting business, and an employment agency. Fire the locals and hire in nice compliant, fit young Eastern European labour at the same nominal wages…. But taking a nice rake off on those wages and having a nice self-financing property portfolio. I has been done with businesses with 5 workers and businesses with 500 and has led to large scale unemployment in particular the Eastern England agricultural industry. (BTW it has also lead to secure work camps full of NORTH Korean workers doing the same work in Poland). It matters not that some corkscrew implementation of existing EU rules could have stopped it. Govts of all hues for a decade DID nothing. Except to tell everybody to shut up about it.

3) UK Independence. When the states of the US formed the USA in the 1770’s all thought an individual state could leave. By the 1860’ they were fighting a war over it. Before the Civil war the US signed treaties ‘These united states are’ afterwards it was ‘The United states is’.
There have already been cries on the extremes of the EU that Brexit was ‘illegal’ and ‘unacceptable’ . if we wanted to leave in 50 years time I strongly suspect it would have to be at the point of a gun. IT has been clear for sometime that we ARE moving towards an EU army as the EU finds its feet. That was not Brexit scare mongering. the natural forces of the EU push towards ever closer union.

It is a common misconception that all human rights and liberties flow from the EU and that the UK was some dark satanic mil of opression before it joined. they dn't and it wasn't

There! And not a bus or a passport in sight

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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Captain Risky
Posted (edited)
On 10/5/2018 at 2:02 AM, stevewinn said:

@ExpandMyMind captain risky as already beaten you to it in the brexit thread.

The fact the UK economy as continued to grow ever since the referendum, I asked him where this 2.5% retraction as come from. Provided him the links. We still await him to show us. Maybe you can help him. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281734/gdp-growth-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/375195/gdp-growth-forecast-comparison-uk/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

 

LOL... i noticed that i had to suffer the humiliation of lower case. angry with the Capt'n? its no good blaming me that your politicians have caved in to the demands of the EU. i have already provided a link. 

Edited by Captain Risky

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TellLieVision

Could somebody explain for the layman the implications and ramifications of the Brexit? Why did the British want to leave the EU? What is the Northen Ireland and the hard border issue all about?

As far as I know, a slight majority of Brits voted in favor of leaving the European Union (the UK has never been part of the European Economic Community, though). 

 

Edited by TellLieVision

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stevewinn
10 hours ago, TellLieVision said:

Could somebody explain for the layman the implications and ramifications of the Brexit? Why did the British want to leave the EU? What is the Northen Ireland and the hard border issue all about?

As far as I know, a slight majority of Brits voted in favor of leaving the European Union (the UK has never been part of the European Economic Community, though). 

 

Britain as been a member of the EEC since 1973. 

Ramifications - we'll have to deal with the EU 27 in the same way we do for 140 odd countries outside of the EU (included in that 140 countries is the United States are No1 single trading partner. China, India, Australia & New Zealand etc..)

93% of the British economy is here within the UK. 

Just 11% of British businesses export, of that figure just 4.6% export to the EU.

Yet 100% of EU rules apply to our economy. 

Being a member of the EU means we hand over powers to the EU and with that a degree of sovereignty. We hand over powers in industry, agriculture and environment, fishing etc.. We handed over our fishing grounds to the EU, we pay a membership fee of £19.2bn a year. Over 50% of our laws are made by the EU. Whose courts are supreme over UK courts. 

On Ireland, Ireland was part of the United Kingdom, after world war one which bankrupted the UK ireland seized the opportunity to leave the United Kingdom, by 1922 the UK and Ireland reached agreement, Ireland would leave and the UK would retain territory in the North. As such Irish citizens have the right to come live and work in the UK. Irish terrorism against the UK notably in 1970s 80s, 90s, were they actively carried out murders and bombings in Northern Ireland and the British mainland. 

The border between Ireland and the United kingdom (northern IRELAND) as been a freedom of movement of people and goods for decades. The Irish Govt and UK Govt resolved this issue themselves. 

The problem to day with the border is the EU wants to use it to keep the UK aligned with the EU's rules. So they create a border issue, as they say a hard border needs installing. And the EU states that if a hard border is required then the Irish will resort to terrorism again. The UK govt as said it won't install a border, the Irish have said they won't install a border so whose going to install a border? There already exists a border today, as the UK have a differing currency, taxation and excise duties to Ireland yet we function perfectly well without a hard border. The same can be done with goods but apparently not according to the EU as all goods and containers will need Checking, yet the UK only checks 4% of containers arriving in the UK from outside the EU and the EU likewise. 

 

 

 

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danydandan
13 hours ago, TellLieVision said:

Could somebody explain for the layman the implications and ramifications of the Brexit? Why did the British want to leave the EU? What is the Northen Ireland and the hard border issue all about?

As far as I know, a slight majority of Brits voted in favor of leaving the European Union (the UK has never been part of the European Economic Community, though). 

 

From an Irish perspective probably no ramifications in reality.

As far as a boarder, I agree with Steve. Irish nor the British want a boarder. The EU does and is using this potentially volatile issue as a bargaining chip.

Edit: I meant a walled or checkpoint boarder, there is obviously an imaginary one.

Edited by danydandan
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third_eye

Let's hear what Kelly and her sisters said in telling the tale ....

~

 

~

... and what Kelly and her sisters remembers about the days

~

~

Just slightly under an hour each for both vids

 

~

 

 

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TellLieVision
4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Britain as been a member of the EEC since 1973. 

Ramifications - we'll have to deal with the EU 27 in the same way we do for 140 odd countries outside of the EU (included in that 140 countries is the United States are No1 single trading partner. China, India, Australia & New Zealand etc..)

93% of the British economy is here within the UK. 

Just 11% of British businesses export, of that figure just 4.6% export to the EU.

Yet 100% of EU rules apply to our economy. 

Being a member of the EU means we hand over powers to the EU and with that a degree of sovereignty. We hand over powers in industry, agriculture and environment, fishing etc.. We handed over our fishing grounds to the EU, we pay a membership fee of £19.2bn a year. Over 50% of our laws are made by the EU. Whose courts are supreme over UK courts. 

 

 

Why does Theresa May then want to find some middle ground? Doesn't she and her party support the Brexit? What are her concerns about leaving the EU?

Thanks Steve and Dany for your input.

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spud the mackem

Brexit is not here yet so how can it be costing £500 m per day, another moan from the remainers no doubt. after next March when we are out of it and thriving we shall be hard to find anyone who will admit that  they wanted to stay under the Jackboot of Europe.

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RabidMongoose
On ‎04‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 12:39 PM, ExpandMyMind said:

Since when was the Guardian an unbiased source of stories?

Its a far left newspaper, it always opposes what the Conservatives do in everyway possible. And hopes people dont have the critical thinking skills to question what they are reading.

Edited by RabidMongoose
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RoofGardener
2 hours ago, TellLieVision said:

 

Why does Theresa May then want to find some middle ground? Doesn't she and her party support the Brexit? What are her concerns about leaving the EU?

Thanks Steve and Dany for your input.

Well, my own personal theory is that she wants to SEEM to be "trying" to come to an agreement with the Commission, while simultaneously providing 'offers' that she knows will be rejected. She can then say.. "well, I gave it my best shot" as we crash out of the EU without a deal, and drop back to WTO rules. 

Which will suite us just FINE :D 

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hetrodoxly
2 hours ago, TellLieVision said:

 

Why does Theresa May then want to find some middle ground? Doesn't she and her party support the Brexit? What are her concerns about leaving the EU?

Thanks Steve and Dany for your input.

She's trying to please the minority as well as the majority, a trade deal would have been nice but the EU's bullying as made most brexiteers wanting WTO and we'll feel glad to be out of it.

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Setton
On 04/10/2018 at 7:39 PM, RabidMongoose said:

So the remainders tell the public its doom and gloom having a negative impact on the economy.

And the leavers get the blame.

So why don't leavers get their act together and make a success of your project rather than blaming any stumbles on people who told you not to do it in the first place?

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RabidMongoose
32 minutes ago, Setton said:

So why don't leavers get their act together and make a success of your project rather than blaming any stumbles on people who told you not to do it in the first place?

I think you expect everything to happen too fast.

Leaving is a process that takes two years, and then it will take another 20 years before we have got everything back we lost as a result of going into the EU. It is the younger generations who will benefit the most although they dont realise yet.

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Setton
21 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

I think you expect everything to happen too fast.

Leaving is a process that takes two years, and then it will take another 20 years before we have got everything back we lost as a result of going into the EU. It is the younger generations who will benefit the most although they dont realise yet.

Got it. 

So I'm sure you won't claim any positive outcomes in the next 20 years are as a result of leaving, will you? 

Can't have it both ways after all. 

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RAyMO
50 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

Leaving is a process that takes two years

Leaving is a 2 year process only if you get a deal - otherwise  its wto and all the other issues highlighted in the 70 odd briefings from March next year.

Edited by RAyMO

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RabidMongoose
6 minutes ago, Setton said:

Got it. 

So I'm sure you won't claim any positive outcomes in the next 20 years are as a result of leaving, will you? 

Can't have it both ways after all. 

Got what? Please dont make assumptions about me or the future.

When Margaret Thatcher privatised everything and then took us into the EU it exposed our industries to the full competition of their European counterparts. We got squeezed out of both low-cost and hi-tech manufacturing. Today we have virtually none of our own car, aircraft, shipping, computer, consumer electronics, and household appliance industries left. German organisations have taken a lot of it off us from us (and on a different topic China has grabbed a large chunk too).

We were forced by the new market conditions to concentrate on banking and financial services. Now dont get me wrong, if you are one of the few with a finance degree working in London then life is great. That is not most of us. When the manufacturing declined most of Britain lost its access to well paid jobs.

The younger people dont realise that, they have no concept of what Britain was like before the EU and what we have lost. They also have no idea what a disaster a Labour Government would be with a leader like Corbyn. Why? Because they weren't alive in the 70s to see what happened last time a leader like him was in power. It is that which led to Thatcher being elected and having to privatise everything to stop our state going bust.

One thing membership of the EU bans us from doing is investing in our own economy. Putting aside the distorted perceptions people have of past and present governments then this is why we could not save our low-cost and hi-tech manufacturing industries. It is why the likes of Tata Steel really went bust because there was nothing our Government was allowed to do which would have saved what was normally a profitable business.

Once we are out of the EU we are free to rebuild all industries in which we can sustain a comparative advantage. That will take time and will not occur overnight. Every time a big technological or social upheaval comes along (like the internet) it shakes up the world of business allowing new firms to enter into new and existing markets. The next two are well on their way - quantum computing and manufacturing using 3D printers.

As soon as we are out of the EU we need to start investing and growing those two sectors to get UK companies a first mover advantage. Then we will have positioned ourselves to be both the low-cost and hi-tech manufacturers of the future. When it comes to free trade agreements WE DO NOT WANT ONE under any circumstances. The EU and particularly Germany will want to get us into one because it benefits their manufacturing industries not ours. It sustains their competitive advantage over us to cut us out of low-cost and hi-tech manufacturing.

The PM is not a moron, and the political battle going on where those that want to remain in the EU demand the Government publicises its leaving strategy is not in the best interests of Britain. We need to keep out plans secret from the EU until a lot nearer the leave date preventing them making moves to counter us.

Over the last 10 years we have experienced needless economic hardship. George Osbourne was the worst Chancellor I have seen (and I`m a Tory admitting that). Its like he had no concept of how economics works and has done the exact opposite of what he should have done. Recessions and depressions are a period of low demand in the economy and Governments are supposed to alter their fiscal policies to counter that by boosting demand. That means increasing spending not cutting it with austerity. If you think the Labour Party would have fared better than think again. You dont tax the rich either as that reduces demand too.

Austerity has given us a far deeper recession than we should have had along with after effects which we are still experiencing. With a normal 2.5% growth of GDP year after year we are no where near where we should be in 2018. Why? Austerity is still in place, demand is still low. What George Osbourne couldn't grasp is that there is a time and place for repaying national debts and that isn't during a recession its during booms periods when you are supposed to cut spending to reduce demand anyway.

However, austerity presents us with a unique opportunity with Brexit. It means we can gradually raise spending in a calculated manner to prevent any negative impact from leaving the EU. We can leave the EU, invest in our economy to begin building industries which can sustain a comparative advantage, and phase out austerity gradually to keep growth high instead of completely cancelling it in one go.

You dont realise it yet (but you will in the 2020s) that we find ourselves in an extremely lucky position which we will capitalise on - austerity timed to end as we leave the EU. We are heading for a very prosperous decade that will get us up and running. Then with any luck it will continue on for the remainder of the century.

Everyone is after getting rid of May because they know if she is in power when we leave the EU and start lifting austerity she will still be in power come 2030.

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TellLieVision
4 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Well, my own personal theory is that she wants to SEEM to be "trying" to come to an agreement with the Commission, while simultaneously providing 'offers' that she knows will be rejected. She can then say.. "well, I gave it my best shot" as we crash out of the EU without a deal, and drop back to WTO rules. 

Which will suite us just FINE :D 

 

3 hours ago, hetrodoxly said:

She's trying to please the minority as well as the majority, a trade deal would have been nice but the EU's bullying as made most brexiteers wanting WTO and we'll feel glad to be out of it.

It seems so, but her way of handling this issue may put her party in jeopardy on the next elections, don't you think?

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Setton
13 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

You dont realise it yet (but you will in the 2020s) that we find ourselves in an extremely lucky position which we will capitalise on - austerity timed to end as we leave the EU. We are heading for a very prosperous decade that will get us up and running. Then with any luck it will continue on for the remainder of the century.

I hope you're right. Although the balance of probability is against you. 

But, of course, none of that can be credited to leaving the EU until 2039. After all, you said the effects wouldn't be felt for 20 years. 

Or perhaps its on a shorter scale? I'm which case, you can take credit for the good but also need to step up and stop blaming others when things aren't perfect. 

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RAyMO

Brexit will not be the panacea that some suggest- the vast % of economists and others who have modeled the outcome agree that under every scenario the UK suffers. And thats even allowing for what would be a disastrous one sided trade agreement with the States.

Whichever party takes us out of the EU will be un-electable at the next election as the masses suffer the costs. there will only be at best 2 years between exit and election meaning the UK wouldn't have the time to realise any of the mythical benefits in leaving within the timescale. Those that lose out will punish those in power that brought the losses and added hardship upon them.

Pressure in Scotland will grow  for Independence, and the DUP will lose out to the ulster Unionists in NI

May can see this, which is why she is trying very very hard for a deal. In fact it was pointed out very clearly to the cabinet at Chequers, some took the warning on-board others were too blinded by ideology and personal ambition and jumped ship preferring the myth over the analysis.

Edited by RAyMO

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RabidMongoose
Just now, Setton said:

I hope you're right. Although the balance of probability is against you. 

But, of course, none of that can be credited to leaving the EU until 2039. After all, you said the effects wouldn't be felt for 20 years. 

Or perhaps its on a shorter scale? I'm which case, you can take credit for the good but also need to step up and stop blaming others when things aren't perfect. 

You dont know about economics so why are you assuming the balance of probability is against it?

I dont know what you mean by the comment about blaming others when things arent perfect. Are you confusing me with someone else? I dont remember doing any of that.

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