Brexit costing Britain £500m a week

[RoofGardener]

8 hours ago, RAyMO said:

Brexit will not be the panacea that some suggest- the vast % of economists and others who have modeled the outcome agree that under every scenario the UK suffers. And thats even allowing for what would be a disastrous one sided trade agreement with the States. .....

Are these the same economists who universally failed to predict the 2009 recessions, even in 2008 ? 

Or perhaps the ones that predicted an economic collapse following a "leave" vote back in 2016 ? 

There is an interesting article from the Financial Times on our inability to predict the economy even 6 months in advance. Indeed, it is not just that SOME people fail to predict it; it appears that NOBODY - economists, mathematicians, politicians, Mystic Meg etc - can predict it AT ALL... not even CLOSELY.  https://www.ft.com/content/70a2a978-adac-11e7-8076-0a4bdda92ca2

So PLEASE do forgive me if I am sceptical of the ability of "... the vast % of economists and others who have modelled it.." to predict an economic outcome a year in advance, especially under completely unprecedented circumstances. 

Edited October 15, 2018 by RoofGardener

[Setton]

8 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

 

I dont know what you mean by the comment about blaming others when things arent perfect. Are you confusing me with someone else? I dont remember doing any of that.

 

On 04/10/2018 at 7:39 PM, RabidMongoose said:

So the remainders tell the public its doom and gloom having a negative impact on the economy.

And the leavers get the blame.

 

[RAyMO]

56 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Or perhaps the ones that predicted an economic collapse following a "leave" vote back in 2016 ? 

As every one knows those predictions were about brexit - being enacted (article 50) immediately following the referendum - roughly 6.30 next morning Cameron started kicking the brexit can and its been kicked ever since, despite this the BoE has had to intervene to the cost of billions. The predictions have merely been delayed - businesses still operate in the hope that there will be no major change if they are wrong the predictions will come home to roost. Not that we have been in any great shape or form since the referendum

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-office-for-budget-responsibility-no-deal-gdp-investment-inflation-a8579306.html

There is a very clear and telling GDP graph about 1/3 of the way down that article.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2018 by RAyMO

[Ozymandias]

14 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Since when was the Guardian an unbiased source of stories?

Its a far left newspaper, it always opposes what the Conservatives do in everyway possible. And hopes people dont have the critical thinking skills to question what they are reading.

That can be said of any newspaper. They are not academic journals, i.e. objective sources of information based on empirical evidence. They all have an agenda with a unilateral perspective.

Stuff your social media and newspapers. Anyone who spends their time and energy quoting newspapers in support of their argument is a lightweight. You need to develop a multilateral approach that views any issue in the round. Anything else is a waste of time and effort.

[Ozymandias]

Predicting the economic future is NOT a science. Economics is NOT a science. Brexiteers and Remainers haven't a clue about the future. The pot is calling the kettle black!

[Duke Wellington]

2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

Predicting the economic future is NOT a science. Economics is NOT a science. Brexiteers and Remainers haven't a clue about the future. The pot is calling the kettle black!

Economics is a science and its one that 95% of the population know little about.

They simply vote for their favourite politician with no ability to evaluate their economic policies. We could do taking the running of the economy off politicians and handing it over to a council made out of a couple hundred economics experts.

[Duke Wellington]

3 hours ago, Setton said:

I dont know what you mean by the comment about blaming others when things arent perfect. Are you confusing me with someone else? I dont remember doing any of that.

So the remainders tell the public its doom and gloom having a negative impact on the economy. And the leavers get the blame.

Thats me no longer replying to you. If you want to cut and paste to make things fit a story then its obvious you arent interested in proper debating.

[Setton]

36 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

Thats me no longer replying to you. If you want to cut and paste to make things fit a story then its obvious you arent interested in proper debating.

Well you asked where you'd blamed people so I quoted where you did. 

[Duke Wellington]

25 minutes ago, Setton said:

Well you asked where you'd blamed people so I quoted where you did. 

No you didnt, you are trying to interpret what I wrote in that way. And I`m not playing along.

[Setton]

15 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

No you didnt, you are trying to interpret what I wrote in that way. And I`m not playing along.

What did you mean by that first post then? That's certainly how it came across to me. 

[Ozymandias]

1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

Economics is a science and its one that 95% of the population know little about.

They simply vote for their favourite politician with no ability to evaluate their economic policies. We could do taking the running of the economy off politicians and handing it over to a council made out of a couple hundred economics experts.

Economics is not a true science in the manner of physics or chemistry but a social science like politics and history. In fact, it has been referred to as 'the dismal science' [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_dismal_science ]. If it was a true science then its practitioners should all have been wealthy men retired at 25. 

[Setton]

2 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Economics is not a true science in the manner of physics or chemistry but a social science like politics and history. In fact, it has been referred to as 'the dismal science' [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_dismal_science ]. If it was a true science then its practitioners should all have been wealthy men retired at 25. 

Umm... History is a science now? 

[Ozymandias]

2 minutes ago, Setton said:

Umm... History is a science now? 

No! That is my point. Economics and history are NOT science. They are classified as social sciences. 

[RoofGardener]

4 hours ago, RAyMO said:

As every one knows those predictions were about brexit - being enacted (article 50) immediately following the referendum - roughly 6.30 next morning Cameron started kicking the brexit can and its been kicked ever since, despite this the BoE has had to intervene to the cost of billions. The predictions have merely been delayed - businesses still operate in the hope that there will be no major change if they are wrong the predictions will come home to roost. Not that we have been in any great shape or form since the referendum

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-office-for-budget-responsibility-no-deal-gdp-investment-inflation-a8579306.html

There is a very clear and telling GDP graph about 1/3 of the way down that article.

 

 

Umm.. no, not really. The BoE forecast was for the VOTE, and NOT for the actual Brexit itself. And they where WILDLY wrong. They predicted that GDP would go down; instead it held steady and even went up a bit. 

And what are these "Billions" you refer to, RAyMO ?  

Finally, that graph is VERY interesting. Firstly, note that it is compared against the G7, not against the Eurozone. Secondly.. what was happening in 2015 ? GDP growth was in decline, and it actually STABILISED after the referendum vote. How does that fit into the "Brexit doom" narrative ? 

[RoofGardener]

1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

Economics is a science and its one that 95% of the population know little about.....

Yeah... along with 95% of economists, I would suggest.

The industry has a truly dire track record at predictions, and its 'models' are even worse than the Climate models at prediction. It has a 100% failure rate at predicting recessions, for example. 

[Setton]

6 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

No! That is my point. Economics and history are NOT science. They are classified as social sciences. 

Missed word in my reply. 

I meant to say 'history is a social science now'. I wouldn't say it's any kind of science. It's an art. 

[RAyMO]

46 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

And what are these "Billions" you refer to, RAyMO ? 

The BoE cut borrowing costs to 0.25 percent after the Brexit vote and increased the size of its bond-buying - Quantitative Easing - programme by £60billion pounds to £435billion. It also launched a plan to buy £10billion of corporate debt and a scheme to encourage banks to lend at low rates. - source: the Daily Express

 

[RAyMO]

1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Finally, that graph is VERY interesting. Firstly, note that it is compared against the G7, not against the Eurozone. Secondly.. what was happening in 2015 ? GDP growth was in decline, and it actually STABILISED after the referendum vote. How does that fit into the "Brexit doom" narrative ? 

Look at the bottom bit of the shaded area - while we were treading water the others were catching and passing us to leave of bottom of the group.

[Duke Wellington]

10 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Umm.. no, not really. The BoE forecast was for the VOTE, and NOT for the actual Brexit itself. And they where WILDLY wrong. They predicted that GDP would go down; instead it held steady and even went up a bit. 

And what are these "Billions" you refer to, RAyMO ?  

Finally, that graph is VERY interesting. Firstly, note that it is compared against the G7, not against the Eurozone. Secondly.. what was happening in 2015 ? GDP growth was in decline, and it actually STABILISED after the referendum vote. How does that fit into the "Brexit doom" narrative ? 

Politicians in a multi-party Democracy do not create a state or economy which functions correctly. Instead, their interest is in promoting their own political ideology while blinding themselves to its negative consequences. That is true for socialism, conservatism, and liberalism. It is the populations eagerness to believe in what their favourite politicians are saying which results in them voting for them.

You do not get balance from a political system which prevents balance - there is no centralist party.

During elections and Brexit it is hard for most people to evaluate the economic policies of each party because they dont have the right education. It is such a shame that in the age of the internet most of them dont go online and educate themselves. Doing so would quickly result in them seeing through every single politician (remember they each promote their own political ideologies instead of offering balanced economic policies).

Those politicians and senior figures at the BoE who want us to remain in the EU are trying to manipulate the population into going for a second referendum. It is a calculated move and is occurring because they know the population lack the education and dont seek out the information sources they need to be able to see through them and see that Brexit can be a success.

A good outcome from Brexit is possible but they will not tell you that. They want to feed you a picture where no one has any idea of how to make Brexit a success and therefore it is doomed for failure. They know that during Brexit negotiations it would be a very bad move for May to announce our post-Brexit strategy because the EU will then block and counter us.

She needs to call a General Election now with the vote to occur a few days before we leave the EU. Just before voting starts she needs to expose what the remainers have been up to and reveal our Brexit strategy to destroy them. She needs to make sure she doesnt go into that election over confident last time and run a proper campaign. Then she will get her majority.

All we need to do once we leave is rebuild a balanced economy - computers, consumer electronics, car manufacturing, shipping, planes, consumer goods, domestic appliances. I suggest suspending the £12 billion of foreign aid we send overseas every year and using that money from which to do it.

Rebuilding those industries will take time as organisations need to develop the resources and capabilities to offer those products. It will take more than a decade to get to where we want to be but there is no reason we cannot get there. Austerity being lifted will counteract any short-term instability and we will end up with a boom in the 2020s.

[stevewinn]

11 hours ago, RAyMO said:

As every one knows those predictions were about brexit - being enacted (article 50) immediately following the referendum - roughly 6.30 next morning Cameron started kicking the brexit can and its been kicked ever since, despite this the BoE has had to intervene to the cost of billions. The predictions have merely been delayed - businesses still operate in the hope that there will be no major change if they are wrong the predictions will come home to roost. Not that we have been in any great shape or form since the referendum

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-office-for-budget-responsibility-no-deal-gdp-investment-inflation-a8579306.html

There is a very clear and telling GDP graph about 1/3 of the way down that article.

 

 

Very selective graph to fit the story. 

Let's have some honesty since 2016, we've had 5.35% growth in GDP. (to date final quarter growth yet to be confirmed) 

In a worst case scenario a no brexit deal the UK treasury tells us the UK will be 7.7% worse off over fifteen years. That means the UK will be worse off by 0.51% per year. To put that in perspective our Aid Budget is 0.7% of GDP. Per year. 

So leaving the EU with no deal is worth less than our charitable yearly contribution in foreign aid. Or put it another way, reduce our aid budget to 0.2% of GDP and use the remaining 0.5% to mitigate any no deal loss. 

And that ladies and gentlemen is the reason why the sky refuses to fall in over brexit. Despite the fear mongering of the last 28 months. The numbers don't add up for a catastrophe. 

UK membership of the single market since 1993 as added on average just 1% to our GDP. ( but no surprise a study found that the EU - Canada free trade deal CETA. The EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02–0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18–0.36%;) 

93% British economy here within the UK.

11% British businesses export global of that figure 4.6% with the EU. 

UK trade with the EU as been in decline for 11 years, UK trade with the rest of the world as been increasing. 

0.1% of UK gdp is trade over the Northern Irish border. 

Even if the financial centre in London lost all eu services the London financial centre would still be twice as big as the next two competitors in the EU. 

Let's just leave the EU with no deal. The quicker we leave and adjust the better we'll be, otherwise if we get a further 2 years transition period we'd end up with two years of what we've just had fearmongering. And it will allow companies and jobs the time to move out of the UK not because of events but because of fear, fear of an event that was never going to happen but we wouldn't be able to prove it. So I say Leave in March next year companies will have no choice but to adapt in the short term and then they'd quickly realise the sky didn't fall in and any company worth their salt would take advantages of the newly discovered opportunities. 100% of the British economy would be Liberated from the protectionist Union. Okay the 6% who benefit from the EU might suffer but that is only what the other 94% have been enduring. Its about time we run this country for the 94%.  

On other matters, no more £19.2bn yearly contributions to the EU, no more £7bn collected in VAT on behalf of the EU and handed over. No £39bn divorce / bonus payment to the EU. And no exposure or contributions to bailing out any future eu / euro project failures. 

Invest the £19.2bn here at home, UK tariff's raised on EU imports would generate £11bn for the UK treasury, (EU would raise £3bn on UK exports to EU then shared out between 27 members) and that £39 billion divorce payment spend it here at home. 

Nearly £70bn invested in one year alone. And every year thereafter invest our previously £19.2bn eu membership. The growth generated here in the UK would boost the economy and with it foreign investment. 

In tune with all this we need a new global and national strategy. 

After all we will still be the United Kingdom, regional power, global power, permanent seat at the UN, (veto) member of the G7, G20, second military power in NATO after the USA. Along with being a Nuclear power, Signatory at the UN/all international treaties, members of the Commonwealth, OECD, World trade organisation. 

Leaving a political union will not be the end of us, our song is not yet sung, and our best years lay ahead. This elizabethen era will be classified as the time we refound  our way, regained our national confidence back and with it pride, the Europeans look to their neighbours - our island nation looks to distant horizons. 

Just need political leadership and the old British can do attitude. (trouble is we've lost our morale somewhat during our EU membership, how sad, our forefathers and those before traipsed across Europe to fight Islam in the crusades, we've stood alone against communism and Nazism, is in this time, on the coming hour, is our generation just going to stand here and crumble. I think not. 

BRING. IT. ON. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2018 by stevewinn

[Ozymandias]

5 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Politicians in a multi-party Democracy do not create a state or economy which functions correctly. Instead, their interest is in promoting their own political ideology while blinding themselves to its negative consequences. That is true for socialism, conservatism, and liberalism. It is the populations eagerness to believe in what their favourite politicians are saying which results in them voting for them.

You do not get balance from a political system which prevents balance - there is no centralist party.

During elections and Brexit it is hard for most people to evaluate the economic policies of each party because they dont have the right education. It is such a shame that in the age of the internet most of them dont go online and educate themselves. Doing so would quickly result in them seeing through every single politician (remember they each promote their own political ideologies instead of offering balanced economic policies).

Those politicians and senior figures at the BoE who want us to remain in the EU are trying to manipulate the population into going for a second referendum. It is a calculated move and is occurring because they know the population lack the education and dont seek out the information sources they need to be able to see through them and see that Brexit can be a success.

A good outcome from Brexit is possible but they will not tell you that. They want to feed you a picture where no one has any idea of how to make Brexit a success and therefore it is doomed for failure. They know that during Brexit negotiations it would be a very bad move for May to announce our post-Brexit strategy because the EU will then block and counter us.

She needs to call a General Election now with the vote to occur a few days before we leave the EU. Just before voting starts she needs to expose what the remainers have been up to and reveal our Brexit strategy to destroy them. She needs to make sure she doesnt go into that election over confident last time and run a proper campaign. Then she will get her majority.

All we need to do once we leave is rebuild a balanced economy - computers, consumer electronics, car manufacturing, shipping, planes, consumer goods, domestic appliances. I suggest suspending the £12 billion of foreign aid we send overseas every year and using that money from which to do it.

Rebuilding those industries will take time as organisations need to develop the resources and capabilities to offer those products. It will take more than a decade to get to where we want to be but there is no reason we cannot get there. Austerity being lifted will counteract any short-term instability and we will end up with a boom in the 2020s.

Wow! Your some economist! What a brain! What a concept!

 It would be as easy as 1, 2, 3. You've just swept two years of argument and counter-argument away in one fell swoop.

Why aren't you running the country? 

[RAyMO]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

14 hours ago, RAyMO said:

 

Very selective graph to fit the story. 

Not in the least - its harder to find a graph showing anything else.

Leavers like yourself fail to see just how intertwined our economies and lives are. And interesting the ROI is one of the few nations you actually have a trade surplus with. I have noted a prominent leaver who spent time in NI given out "facts about Cross border trade" where he claimed a figure like 6% of NI exports go south. It was pointed out to him on air that he was wrong why he was wrong and how if he turned the page in the document he was referencing that he would get the correct figure.

Next day in Parliament he repeated the same rubbish data. The leaders of Brexit don't care for the facts.

 

Edited October 15, 2018 by RAyMO

[Duke Wellington]

12 hours ago, RAyMO said:

Not in the least - its harder to find a graph showing anything else.

Leavers like yourself fail to see just how intertwined our economies and lives are. And interesting the ROI is one of the few nations you actually have a trade surplus with. I have noted a prominent leaver who spent time in NI given out "facts about Cross border trade" where he claimed a figure like 6% of NI exports go south. It was pointed out to him on air that he was wrong why he was wrong and how if he turned the page in the document he was referencing that he would get the correct figure.

Next day in Parliament he repeated the same rubbish data. The leaders of Brexit don't care for the facts.

Yes our economies our intertwined. They were before the EU, they were during the EU, and they will be after the EU. You dont need to be in the EU to do trade with it and the world isn't going to end simply because we leave.

[stevewinn]

19 hours ago, RAyMO said:

Not in the least - its harder to find a graph showing anything else.

Leavers like yourself fail to see just how intertwined our economies and lives are. And interesting the ROI is one of the few nations you actually have a trade surplus with. I have noted a prominent leaver who spent time in NI given out "facts about Cross border trade" where he claimed a figure like 6% of NI exports go south. It was pointed out to him on air that he was wrong why he was wrong and how if he turned the page in the document he was referencing that he would get the correct figure.

Next day in Parliament he repeated the same rubbish data. The leaders of Brexit don't care for the facts.

 

It is very selective in its attempt to paint a dull picture, it's these types of articles which appeal to a certain type of people who go through life with a grey cloud above their head. 

They need to look on the bright side of life, since the referendum our economy as grew by 5.35%. The key word is growth, 5.35% of £2.65 Trillion. (if things stay as they are that figure will increase by years end to 6.15%)

It's staggering there is any growth at all when you consider the non stop 28 months of fear mongering we've had. The constant attrition of our morale. The constant attack on us as a people, that we can't totter about the world, we can shape our own destiny, we are 65 million people. We are the United Kingdom. The sooner people understand this and all pull in the same direction the prize will be even more rewarding. 

As for facts and figures all are freely avaliable from the original official sources. Gov.uk. 

 

[RAyMO]

5 hours ago, stevewinn said:

The sooner people understand this and all pull in the same direction the prize will be even more rewarding. 

 I believe those who promised what will never be delivered will have much to answer for. They persuaded a deceived population to vote to be weaker and poorer. That will never be forgotten – nor forgiven.

 

Not my words but I agree the sentiments expressed by John Major on the 16th of this month

Edited October 16, 2018 by RAyMO