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gollum

Covert missions in Iran

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bathory

perhaps the US doesn't intend on fighting a conventional war in Iran when the time comes for Iran to be dealt with?

Zephyr, whats the political climate like over there?

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zephyr

Hello original.gif Iran is to begin new and very sensitive round of talks with the three European countries (Britain, France and Germany). Straw is carrying a 200 page file to Washington about Iran, and this is getting to be a hot issue that seperates Britain and the US ( these two countries have always rivaled each other in matters concerning Iran and are far from being the sweet allies that they usually are). The Americans are trying to influence the Europeans to stand tough in the upcoming talks ( or else...) and at the same time sending some threatening signals to Tehran to make sure they accomodate the Europeans ( or else...). The timing of such reports confirms the psychology behind it.

In any case an attack on Iran would be the equivalent of a mass suicide, and any resulting war would certainly not be limited to Iran's borders w00t.gif People in Washington know this very well, they also know the social and political mood in Iran. This kind of report can only be seen as rhetoric and is nothing new ( in fact we've got our ears full of them).

Nobody here believes that such an attack or invasion would take place, and

I'm certainly not losing any sleep over it. no.gif They make good subject for conversation such as the interesting ones here on this board, and probabely at my cousin's wedding that I'm going to be attending tonight. grin2.gif

" It's not wise to mess around the bees' hives", an old Persian saying. grin2.gif

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Lottie

Has anyone thought that perhaps Mr Hersh, or whatever his name is, article is a complete exaggeration of the truth for his own profit yada yada. From what I read from the article its all just hearsay anyway.

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Mekorig
The U.S. certainly doesn't have the manpower to fight a conventional war overseas against a nation the size and strength of Iran, even if Iran doesn't have nukes.

Quite correct. However, given the elections take place and go well in Iraq....let us fantasize for a moment here that in a year or two or three or so, Iraq is stable and rebuilds a strong military and is a thriving democracy; isn't it plausible that Iraq may see itself as a part of the 'coalition of the willing' and have a large interest in the 'democratization' of Iran as well as Syria? A well trained Iraqi army with US backing would dramatically reduce the number of US ground troops needed to topple the Iranian government. What do you think? huh.gif

464304[/snapback]

two or three years?...umm..lets say 5 years at least, if Iraq doesnt become a teocracy first.

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bathory

Zephyr:

but would Iranians be open to the overthrow of the current theocracy in place?

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Homer
Quite correct.  However, given the elections take place and go well in Iraq....let us fantasize for a moment here that in a year or two or three or so, Iraq is stable and rebuilds a strong military and is a thriving democracy;  isn't it plausible that Iraq may see itself as a part of the 'coalition of the willing' and have a large interest in the 'democratization' of Iran as well as Syria?  A well trained Iraqi army with US backing would dramatically reduce the number of US ground troops needed to topple the Iranian  government.  What do you think? huh.gif

464304[/snapback]

I think this is not only unrealistic, but impossible.

Even freeing up the troops currently occupying Iraq, the U.S. simply doesn't have the manpower for an invasion. Entertaining the thought of a free Iraq and other 'coalition of the willing' to join forces for this invasion is absurd.

Iran is almost 4 times larger than Iraq, with lots of rugged mountains and a population of almost 70 million people. Plus if Iran was invaded they might as well eliminate the Straits of Hormuz as a maritime route for crude oil.

If there is going to be any agression against Iran, I see it as specific missile strikes or covert ops to destabalize(overthrow?) the government, and not an invasion with conventional warfare. Iran is just too big and too strong.

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bathory
Plus if Iran was invaded they might as well eliminate the Straits of Hormuz as a maritime route for crude oil.

that would be secured quite early on me thinks

besides, saudi still can pump out into the redsea?

but i agree with the idea of destabalising or oeverthrowing the iranian government.

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Homer
that would be secured quite early on me thinks

besides, saudi still can pump out into the redsea?

but i agree with the idea of destabalising or oeverthrowing the iranian government.

464534[/snapback]

Iran has the capability of disrupting all oil in the Middle East with it's new missiles.

Would a change in government really eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran? Perhaps covert ops could destroy their nuke program, but I doubt it.

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joc
Entertaining the thought of a free Iraq and other 'coalition of the willing' to join forces for this invasion is absurd.

Iran is almost 4 times larger than Iraq, with lots of rugged mountains and a population of almost 70 million people.

I appreciate your thought process although I am going to entertain the absurdity for a minute longer:

Iran's mean population is around the age of twenty five and a majority of the populace would willingly (and do willingly in the privacy of their homes) embrace Western styles and culture. If a terrorist 'insurgency' continues to pour over the border from Iran and Syria into Iraq, would it not be in Iraq's best interest to step up to the military plate and seek a military overthrow of Iran's Mullahs? I realize that it was Sadaam who was fighting Iran for eight years prior to the Kuwait invasion...but there is still bad blood between the two.

I think you are probably right in your assessment. The fact is that Iran and Syria will both be dealt with one way or another...of that I am certain. yes.gif

I also tend to believe that the Democratization of Afghanistan and Iraq will, in itself, have an effect on the destabilization of Iran.

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Homer

I don't pretend to be an expert, but these are my opinions.

Iran's mean population is around the age of twenty five and a majority of the populace would willingly (and do willingly in the privacy of their homes) embrace Western styles and culture.

I agree, but they are also patriots. I agree that a more western style government will be welcomed, but they will defend their homeland from an invading army.

If a terrorist 'insurgency' continues to pour over the border from Iran and Syria into Iraq, would it not be in Iraq's best interest to step up to the military plate and seek a military overthrow of Iran's Mullahs?

It could take years for Iraq to become stable enough for any such undertaking(as you have already previously mentioned). I think the Mullahs will be taken care of by the time Iraq is even capable of assisting.

The fact is that Iran and Syria will both be dealt with one way or another...of that I am certain.

I agree, but I don't know how

I also tend to believe that the Democratization of Afghanistan and Iraq will, in itself, have an effect on the destabilization of Iran.

I agree. I think it will effect the populations of those countries, and put pressure on their governments. Provided the new democracies are stable.

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The Caspian Hare
Bush also said that Saddam had stockpiles of WMD too...and links to 9/11... rolleyes.gif I trust him about as far as I could throw him...

Numbers do not lie. You believe whatever you choose but we do not have the resources to fight the level of war that we are currently fighting for more than another year or so, let alone any action in Iran. The soldiers have to come from somewhere...

There is no indication that Bush will call for a draft to raise an army in order to launch an invasion of Iran, or to maintain troop levels in Iraq.

You're irresponsibly tossing the word "draft" about when there is no evidence that one is imminent.

But, as you said, "believe whatever you choose."

Edited by Redneck

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Babs
Hello original.gif  Iran is to begin  new and very sensitive round of talks with the three European countries (Britain, France and Germany). Straw is carrying a 200 page file to Washington about Iran, and this is getting to be a hot issue that seperates Britain and the US ( these two countries have always rivaled each other in matters concerning Iran and are far from being the sweet allies that they usually are). The Americans are trying to influence the Europeans to stand tough in the upcoming talks ( or else...) and at the same time sending some threatening signals to Tehran to make sure they accomodate the Europeans ( or else...). The timing of such reports confirms the psychology behind it.

In any case an attack on Iran would be the equivalent of a mass suicide, and any resulting war would certainly not be limited to Iran's borders w00t.gif  People in Washington know this very well, they also know the social and political mood in Iran. This kind of report can only be seen as rhetoric and is nothing new ( in fact we've got our ears full of them).

Nobody here believes that such an attack or invasion would take place, and

I'm certainly not losing any sleep over it. no.gif They make good subject for conversation such as the interesting ones here on this board, and probabely at my cousin's wedding that I'm going to be attending tonight. grin2.gif

" It's not wise to mess around the bees' hives", an old Persian saying. grin2.gif

464458[/snapback]

An observation: You know Hussein didn't think we'd do it, either. cool.gif

Time is what is needed. And work, a whole lot of work, first, before anyone makes a move. I have said in the past that maybe the people will over-throw the government of Iran. In your estimation.... any chance of that?

I do think we will deal effectively with Iran and Syria when the time comes.

BTW... Iran talks big.

Edited by Babs

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Stellar

Iran talks big.

Iran is big, also.

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Thanato

if Iran and the US went to War, Iran could hold its own.

~Thanato

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Stellar
if Iran and the US went to War, Iran could hold its own.

~Thanato

465384[/snapback]

Not forever, probably. If the US is willing to continue through the casualties, Iran will eventually exhaust its supplies.

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Thanato

but the US Economy wont last for ever ither.

~Thanato

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Stellar
but the US Economy wont last for ever ither.

~Thanato

465398[/snapback]

But longer than Irans I'd bet.

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Babs
if Iran and the US went to War, Iran could hold its own.

~Thanato

465384[/snapback]

laugh.giflaugh.giflaugh.gif ...that's a good one.

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morpheas

-Post removed-

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bathory
and for Bush to keep his gob shut and let the likes of Jack Straw and co do the talking. PLEASE SOMEONE SHUT YOUR WAR PRESIDENT UP, before the american population is just a handful of people!!!

The way Bush has handled North Korea so far would seem to indicate that you guys don't give him enough credit.

Better than the pandering Clinton gave them at anyrate.

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Mekorig

well, he treated North Korea in the same way ( or worse) than Clinton.....i dont see any good new coming from that area of the world.

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bathory
well, he treated North Korea in the same way ( or worse) than Clinton.....i dont see any good new coming from that area of the world.

no.gif

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Stellar
if Iran and the US went to War, Iran could hold its own.

~Thanato

465384[/snapback]

laugh.giflaugh.giflaugh.gif ...that's a good one.

465629[/snapback]

That right there shows your ignorance on these matters. So... tell me... without the US instituting a draft, how would it invade Iran successfuly?

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Homer

If we can't prevent Iran from going nuclear, then we should include them in Middle East affairs. I don't think a secular Iranian leadership would hate Israel so much either, so I think more should be done to support Iranians who want to oust the current leadership. There are many in Iran who desire closer relations with the West, and more freedoms.

Iran doesn't have to be our 'friend', but we should still include them in regional affairs, while doing what we can to support Iranians who want to change their government.

Although I would prefer a nuke free Iran, if it can't be avoided, I would like a stable Iran with a secular leadership that is a part of the international community

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zephyr
Zephyr:

but would Iranians be open to the overthrow of the current theocracy in place?

464508[/snapback]

I don't know, but one thing is sure, the right solutions to Iran's problems are neither military nor dictatable from outside. no.gif

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