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susieice

Trump to make major announcement re shutdown

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Farmer77
4 minutes ago, Setton said:

So even the 500k does not refer to illegal entry exclusively. You need a more detailed breakdown of the data to make any such claim. 

Dang good catch. From the article:

Quote

The Department of Homeland Security said that, in total, 521,090 individuals were either apprehended or deemed "inadmissible" after arriving at a port of entry on the border during the 2018 fiscal year. In 2017, 415,517 people were caught crossing illegally or turned away, as were 553,378 in 2016.

WOAH so the numbers theyre throwing around for illegal immigration now also include attempted crossings at legal ports of entry? Christ I deal with at least a couple of people monthly who get turned back  by CBP due to various reasons. Usually theyre Americans who didnt realize their ID had expired or their ID has been damaged beyond recognition. Not a single one of them are attempting to illegally migrate.

 

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Tatetopa
10 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Yeah, those are the ones caught. How many are NOT caught. Estimates are three to four times as many.

I'll look at a better estimate if you have one?

No I didn't find a better number Die Checker.  I believe accuracy is important in your professional life, lets stick to a number we know rather than an estimate.  You do have my concurrence that even 400,000 is too many, and there we seem to be on solid ground with facts.  .  

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Tatetopa
10 hours ago, DieChecker said:

In his first State of the Union address on January 30, 2018, Trump outlined his administration's four pillars for immigration reform: (1) a path to citizenship for DREAMers; (2) increased border security funding; (3) ending the diversity visa lottery; and (4) restrictions on family-based immigration.[11] The Four Pillars reinforce Trump's campaign slogan to "Buy American, Hire American"[12] and 2017 executive order by the same name, and tracks with previously outlined immigration policy priorities.[13]

Yep you are right.  That was at least a starting point.

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DieChecker
14 hours ago, Setton said:

In addition to your maths being... shaky... (500,000 =/= millions) you conveniently missed this 

So even the 500k does not refer to illegal entry exclusively. You need a more detailed breakdown of the data to make any such claim. 

Did you read post 397? Probably it will answer some of your questions.

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DieChecker
13 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Yep you are right.  That was at least a starting point.

I don't know if Trump referenced that during the shutdown, but I seem to remember he offered DACA as being on the table, and Pelosi still said it was a non-starter. 

I'll check if Pelosi has agreed to even speak about a wall yet.

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Setton
22 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Did you read post 397? Probably it will answer some of your questions.

I did but it doesn't. Since the number is illegal entry and turned away, all your subsequent calculations are also off. As I said, to do any meaningful analysis on it, you'd need the data that splits illegal entry from those turned away. 

Do you have that data? 

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DieChecker
31 minutes ago, Setton said:

I did but it doesn't. Since the number is illegal entry and turned away, all your subsequent calculations are also off. As I said, to do any meaningful analysis on it, you'd need the data that splits illegal entry from those turned away. 

Do you have that data? 

I can look... :tu:

Edit: I found this...

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/04/the-stats-on-border-apprehensions/

sw-border-apprehensions-by-fiscal-year.j

Which seems to show 2017 at about 300,000 and 2016 at just over 400,000. 

Original article said 425,000 in 2017 and 550,000 in 2016. Which means, roughly, 125,000 in 2017 were turned away, and 150,000 in 2018. About 27%, in both instances, appear to have been turned away.

Going back to my calculation, that would mean (at worst case 40% being caught) there are 300k x 1.5 = 450k... 750k attempts in 2017, and 400k x 1.5 = 600k... 1 million attempts in 2016.

And the expected numbers for 2018 appear to be similar to 2016, see graph below from same site as above graph, and previous links. 

So assuming 2018 had roughly a million attempts is not unreasonable.

Is a million people a year enough of a problem? I think most people would say yes. The sticking point would be what to do? 

Walls have worked in the past, and continue to work. The graphs alone show this. Illegals have chosen other methods to use to come here. Methods that allow a lot more people to be screened and the bad ones (hopefully) denied. Given those who can travel legally to the US do so... whom does that leave to cross illegally, and whom are those hundred thousand plus whom are turned back? Possibly the very poor, but in a lot of cases, drug mules, human traffickers and other criminals. Probably a lot higher percentage then the "regular" illegal community.

Expanding the existing barriers should be a no brainer, other then the involvement of partisan politics.

southwest-border-apprehensions-final.jpg

Edited by DieChecker
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