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RoofGardener

France and Germany to merge ?

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RoofGardener

Wel, 'merging' might be putting it a bit strongly, but they are forming a MUCH closer union. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46908205

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In the draft, France and Germany agree to establish common positions and issue joint statements on major EU issues - formalising their existing co-operation. They also plan to act as a joint force at the United Nations.

From foreign policy to internal and external security, the two nations commit to coming up with common positions while seeking to bolster "Europe's capacity to act autonomously".

The two countries commit to:

  • Deepening economic integration with a Franco-German "economic zone"
  • Developing Europe's military capabilities, investing together to "fill gaps in capacity, thereby reinforcing" the EU and Nato
  • Fostering in both armed forces a "common culture" and joint deployments as well as a Franco-German defence and security council
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seanjo

Have their people been consulted?... I bet they haven't.

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Vlad the Mighty

Well, with Frau Merciful retiring soon, le Roi Soleil Macron is clearly seeing an opening for the new Führer of Europe, to mix historical eras, isn't he. The French would clearly like to see any opportunity to take over the old enemy (after England, of course). They still nurture grudges against Bismarck from 1870. 

Edited by Vlad the Mighty
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Eldorado
38 minutes ago, Vlad the Mighty said:

Well, with Frau Merciful retiring soon, le Roi Soleil Macron is clearly seeing an opening for the new Führer of Europe, to mix historical eras, isn't he. The French would clearly like to see any opportunity to take over the old enemy (after England, of course). They still nurture grudges against Bismarck from 1870. 

They'll need to sort France out before storming all over the old enemy.

Twenty years ago Jean-Marc Michaud was a paratrooper who proudly marched with the army down the Champs-Elysees avenue in Paris on France's national holiday.

But these days, the 41-year-old former French soldier, who lost an eye to a rubber bullet during a "yellow vest" protest in Bordeaux last weekend, is "no longer proud of France at all," he told AFP.

Full article: https://www.thelocal.fr/20190119/french-police-under-fire-as-yellow-vests-casualty-toll-mounts

Macron fails to quiet 10th week of Yellow Vest protests in France.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4866648/yellow-vest-protests-france-macron/

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stevewinn

interesting move. Hmm. The absence of the UK in the EU will significantly change the balance of power in the European Council and the Council of Ministers, especially when regarding the Qualified Majority Voting procedure (QMV). The blocking minority has to consist of at least four member states representing 35% of the EU population. This kind of minority can normally only be achieved with the inclusion of one or two of the four biggest Member States. France is often allied with Italy and Spain, leaving Germany in a weakened position. There will be two power groupings, a Franco-German axis and a France, Italy, Spain alliance. As France is in both groups so as much more power. Germany you could say is looking boost the German Franco axis when it comes to QMV i look forward to a power struggle taking place in the near future.

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Katzenking

Italy and Poland also proclaimed a new axis.

Franco-German axis? It won't work. Macron has failed, Merkel has failed, the EU has failed.
Worrying is that those blocs usually break up violently like the USSR or Yugoslavia.
Soon Germany will be once again surrounded by "enemies".
And from now on the EU-Europeans will blame Britain for anything that goes wrong in the rest-EU.
I'm afraid the UK will also be pulled into the coming conflicts.
History repeats itself if nobody draws the right conclusions.

Edited by Katzenking
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spud the mackem
20 minutes ago, Katzenking said:

Italy and Poland also proclaimed a new axis.

Franco-German axis? It won't work. Macron has failed, Merkel has failed, the EU has failed.
Worrying is that those blocs usually break up violently like the USSR or Yugoslavia.
Soon Germany will be once again surrounded by "enemies".
And from now on the EU-Europeans will blame Britain for anything that goes wrong in the rest-EU.
I'm afraid the UK will also be pulled into the coming conflicts.
History repeats itself if nobody draws the right conclusions.

Why would the U.K be pulled into any euro conflict . 

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Katzenking
31 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

Why would the U.K be pulled into any euro conflict . 

Well sorry, but isn't it obvious?
I have no crystalball and can't tell you how exactly this will happen.
Traditionally when there is conflict in Europe everyone is involved.

 

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RoofGardener
57 minutes ago, Katzenking said:

Well sorry, but isn't it obvious?
I have no crystalball and can't tell you how exactly this will happen.
Traditionally when there is conflict in Europe everyone is involved.

Ah, but this is not a conflict within Europe, but within the European Union which - god willing - we will soon be out of. 

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RabidMongoose
2 hours ago, Katzenking said:

Italy and Poland also proclaimed a new axis.

Franco-German axis? It won't work. Macron has failed, Merkel has failed, the EU has failed.
Worrying is that those blocs usually break up violently like the USSR or Yugoslavia.
Soon Germany will be once again surrounded by "enemies".
And from now on the EU-Europeans will blame Britain for anything that goes wrong in the rest-EU.
I'm afraid the UK will also be pulled into the coming conflicts.
History repeats itself if nobody draws the right conclusions.

In order to counter the growing threat I can see the USA, UK, and Russia, having an alliance.

Those Germans are crafty, if we dont watch it they will win next time. Win before a shot is even fired.

Edited by RabidMongoose
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fred_mc

Nice to hear that the old "arch enemies" are getting along so well nowadays :-) .

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Katzenking
12 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Ah, but this is not a conflict within Europe, but within the European Union which - god willing - we will soon be out of. 

:lol:

Now I see what you mean...
You think that I am trying to disturb your Brexit-party.
But not at all!
I wish you every success and hope it will go smoothly and things come back to normal as soon as possible. Deal or no deal.
Brexit is not the topic of this thread (or is it?) and honestly it does not concern me very much because it hopefully has only limited impact on my life.

I look forward to visit England in May this year following several invitations of some good old friends who btw also voted for Brexit.
And as long as I don't have to jump on a truck in Calais I will be there and expect to spend two relaxing weeks in the countryside of East Anglia.

Now back to what I try to say (more precisely):
I am already 2 steps ahead and think that with all this new axis building it seems that countries already begin to forge alliances for post-EU times.
This is mainly for economic reasons but interferences from outside already enhanced prejudices and hate among many people throughout Europe.
We must not allow this to happen further!
This could lead to catastrophic consequences and you should not expect that the UK will be able to stand aside in this worst case scenario.
So I call for the UK and everyone in Europe (and North America) to keep the common security facilities in place at all costs.
This should not mixed up with the EU mess. Otherwise we are fools altogether and have to face the consequences.
Everything else can be solved in time.

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and then
12 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

In order to counter the growing threat I can see the USA, UK, and Russia, having an alliance.

Those Germans are crafty, if we dont watch it they will win next time. Win before a shot is even fired.

I always considered Germans to be resolute and strong in their culture, at least until the EU began demanding an unending influx of migrants that had no desire to assimilate to the culture of their "host" countries.  Germany and France are just hollow shells of what they were and the EU is an illusion of strength.  That may change in the future but today it couldn't withstand an assault by Russia without an American commitment of serious strength and duration.  My guess is that commitment would be difficult to acquire, this time around.  

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Hammerclaw

They couldn't be much more united than they already are. Collectively, they're the backbone of the Union. They're the heart and soul of the coming European Republic. It couldn't happen without Brexit.

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Katzenking
6 hours ago, and then said:

I always considered Germans to be resolute and strong in their culture, at least until the EU began demanding an unending influx of migrants that had no desire to assimilate to the culture of their "host" countries.  Germany and France are just hollow shells of what they were and the EU is an illusion of strength.  That may change in the future but today it couldn't withstand an assault by Russia without an American commitment of serious strength and duration.  My guess is that commitment would be difficult to acquire, this time around.  

The main difference to the British people is that most Germans (let's say 60%) are hopelessly dependent on authorities and tend to believe anything what the government says.
Others (let's say 25%) can be easily radicalized either to the left or right
The mass media always agrees on what the government dictates. If you read 10 newspapers about the same topic you find rarely different comments. They are always aligned with the government and 'educate' the readers.

5 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

They couldn't be much more united than they already are. Collectively, they're the backbone of the Union. They're the heart and soul of the coming European Republic. It couldn't happen without Brexit.

May be you are right in a distant future but I can't see this right now. There are many reasons which speak against a "European Republic". Alone the language confusion keeps the simple people apart. If the EU stays together without Britain (what I doubt) I bet it will become a money-union of the rich and elites. Undemocratic and little freedom (very much like China). The same pattern as usual in continental-Europe: a few can do whatever they want and the big majority will be suppressed.

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Setton
19 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

In order to counter the growing threat I can see the USA, UK, and Russia, having an alliance.

Yeah... can't see us climbing into bed with the Russians any time soon somehow... 

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DieChecker

So basically France surrendering to Germany and together taking over the rest of the EU as client states....

Sweet gig if you can get it.

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RoofGardener

Well, if it comes to Russia, they don't represent a military threat. Their army and air force is a shadow of its former self. The Baltic states - and especially Poland - could give them a bloody nose !

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toast
1 hour ago, Katzenking said:

The main difference to the British people is that most Germans (let's say 60%) are hopelessly dependent on authorities and tend to believe anything what the government says.

The 60% value is an opinion of yours, so not based on any empirical data, right?

Quote

Others (let's say 25%) can be easily radicalized either to the left or right

The 25% value is an opinion of yours, so not based on any empirical data, right?

Quote

The mass media always agrees on what the government dictates.

Please name them.

Quote

If you read 10 newspapers about the same topic you find rarely different comments. They are always aligned with the government and 'educate' the readers.

Depends on what newspapers you are reading. There are roughly 350 newspapers published here in Germany and I dont know what newspapers you are talking about. Of course, there will be (at least) 10 those will match your claim, but 10 out of 350 cannot show the full picture and cannot not back your claim.

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toast

Its disconcerting somehow to read too often that in discussions like this one, when its about Europe, assumed military conflicts are a key issue. Thus, I feel the need to notice that such scenarios are driven by some kind of madness and a lack of knowledge about the political situation here in Europe. There is only one potential hot spot for military conflicts in Europe, its the East borders to Russia. But, such a conflict would not be triggered by Russia, but by the extension of the NATO heading East, mostly and leadingly triggered by the USA. We do not have a problem with Russia here in Europe but we suffer the problems caused, with Russia, by a third party.

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Captain Risky
1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

Well, if it comes to Russia, they don't represent a military threat. Their army and air force is a shadow of its former self. The Baltic states - and especially Poland - could give them a bloody nose !

they don't need to match any NATO alliance in open combat. all the Russians need to do is quickly occupy an area and then threaten nuclear retaliation if anyone goes near it. with Trump in power and ultimately the boss of NATO we all know exactly where such a scenario will lead, don't we?

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RoofGardener
Just now, Captain Risky said:

they don't need to match any NATO alliance in open combat. all the Russians need to do is quickly occupy an area and then threaten nuclear retaliation if anyone goes near it. with Trump in power and ultimately the boss of NATO we all know exactly where such a scenario will lead, don't we?

Hmmm.. that would result in global sanctions against them. Their economy couldn't survive it. They'd end up not being able to pay their own soldiers. 

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Captain Risky
1 hour ago, DieChecker said:

So basically France surrendering to Germany and together taking over the rest of the EU as client states....

Sweet gig if you can get it.

no actually its the other way around. the French have just become the military force of Europe and the true power of Europe. France will now be modernised through Germany and Germany will have a say with France in the UN. its a marriage. the British and their brexit have allowed this to happen. while the EU unites the UK will further devolve into NI, Scotland and Wales. 

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Captain Risky
4 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm.. that would result in global sanctions against them. Their economy couldn't survive it. They'd end up not being able to pay their own soldiers. 

sorry I'm doing two things at once. i don't think you can threaten an already sanctioned economy thats facing in the other direction. Putin has used his isolation from the west at good advantage. 

Edited by Captain Risky

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RoofGardener
11 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

sorry I'm doing two things at once. i don't think you can threaten an already sanctioned economy thats facing in the other direction. Putin has used his isolation from the west at good advantage. 

You can threaten it with MORE sanctions ? 

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