Venezuelan Revolt on the Horizon?

[DarkHunter]

14 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

The Brazilian army is bigger than that of Venezuela, but not HUGELY so ! And an invasion could serve as to rally Maduro's popularity. I can't see an invasion ending well  

Its essentially hugely bigger, Venezuela has a total of 123,000 military personnel made up of 115,000 active and 8,000 reserve while Brazil has a total of 1,987,000 military personnel made up of 334,500 active and 1,652,500 reserve. 

Venezuela has 280 planes and helicopters while Brazil has 723 planes and helicopters.  In fighter aircraft Venezuela has the advantage as its fighter aircraft are made up of Su-30s and F-16s while Brazil currently only has F-5s and AMX Internationals but Brazil is supposed to start receiving Gripens soon.  In helicopters Brazil has a large advantage as Venezuela really only has Mil Mi-17 for combat while Brazil has Mil Mi-24, Eurocopter AS565 Panther, and other various helicopters that can be used in combat roles.  For transport Brazil has far more helicopters then Venezuela does.

In terms of vehicle Brazil has about twice as much of everything as Venezuela does except for tanks where Venezuela has 686 tanks while Brazil only has 469.  The Venezuelan tanks are an interesting mix of Russian T-72B1V, France AMX-30 and AMX 13C.90, and British Scorpion 90.  The Brazilian tanks are a mix of German Leopards 1 and American M60 Pattons. 

In terms of artillery Brazil has about twice as much self propelled artillery, five times as much towed artillery, and about three times as much rocket artillery.

Just a quick look at the numbers Brazil dies have a seemingly overwhelming advantage, especially if they could get air support.

[Myles]

24 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Its essentially hugely bigger, Venezuela has a total of 123,000 military personnel made up of 115,000 active and 8,000 reserve while Brazil has a total of 1,987,000 military personnel made up of 334,500 active and 1,652,500 reserve. 

Venezuela has 280 planes and helicopters while Brazil has 723 planes and helicopters.  In fighter aircraft Venezuela has the advantage as its fighter aircraft are made up of Su-30s and F-16s while Brazil currently only has F-5s and AMX Internationals but Brazil is supposed to start receiving Gripens soon.  In helicopters Brazil has a large advantage as Venezuela really only has Mil Mi-17 for combat while Brazil has Mil Mi-24, Eurocopter AS565 Panther, and other various helicopters that can be used in combat roles.  For transport Brazil has far more helicopters then Venezuela does.

In terms of vehicle Brazil has about twice as much of everything as Venezuela does except for tanks where Venezuela has 686 tanks while Brazil only has 469.  The Venezuelan tanks are an interesting mix of Russian T-72B1V, France AMX-30 and AMX 13C.90, and British Scorpion 90.  The Brazilian tanks are a mix of German Leopards 1 and American M60 Pattons. 

In terms of artillery Brazil has about twice as much self propelled artillery, five times as much towed artillery, and about three times as much rocket artillery.

Just a quick look at the numbers Brazil dies have a seemingly overwhelming advantage, especially if they could get air support.

While all true, it would be a bit closer if Brazil was doing the invading.  Most countries will hold back equipment and personnel to protect their own country.

[spartan max2]

1 hour ago, RoofGardener said:

The Brazilian army is bigger than that of Venezuela, but not HUGELY so ! And an invasion could serve as to rally Maduro's popularity. I can't see an invasion ending well  

The thing is, in a oppressive regime, you have no idea how much of Venezuela's military will stand with the dictator once the chance to fight back happens. Plus the U.S will probably do what we do best, which is air superiority. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by spartan max2

[DarkHunter]

12 minutes ago, Myles said:

While all true, it would be a bit closer if Brazil was doing the invading.  Most countries will hold back equipment and personnel to protect their own country.

Brazil probably wouldnt need to hold back that much, for better or worse there is really only one very narrow section of the border, judging from Google maps about 50 miles wide, that is really viable for Brazil to invade Venezuela and for Venezuela to counter attack along as most of the border between the two is mountains and jungles.  

[Golden Duck]

3 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Before we all rush to support an insurrection to put Juan Guaidó on the throne, shouldn't we know a little bit about him first ?

 

 

International action against Venezuela has been a question for a long time.  "Why not Venezueal" was the uncomfortably unanswerable when posed to those who asserted the Iraq war was about oil.

Guaidó says the latest oil deal are illegal.  

Quote

Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA [PDVSA.UL] has signed a deal with little-known U.S. energy firm Erepla, partly owned by a prominent Florida Republican, to help increase the socialist-run country’s plummeting crude oil output

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil/venezuelas-pdvsa-in-oil-deal-with-firm-part-owned-by-florida-republican-idUSKCN1P11EM

This company can't start until the government reopens.

What's the word from OPEC-Russia?

The story is complex.

[Mr.United_Nations]

If the US was only after oil, it would have invaded many  years ago.anyway PDVSA have defaulted 

[Mr.United_Nations]

4 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

He WON'T be interim president... unless Maduro stands down.. which he seems unlikely to do. And that means a civil war. 

Maduro didn't call for an election however, he only cared about himself and nothing more

[Golden Duck]

1 hour ago, Mr.United_Nations said:

If the US was only after oil, it would have invaded many  years ago.anyway PDVSA have defaulted 

Likewise, if this was about removing a dictator. 

PDVSA were no doubt banking on this deal to give complete operational control to a US company. 

[Mr.United_Nations]

Obviously they were run by military generals who had no experience with the oil sector.

Also anyone noticed how Turkey is backing Maduro? Does anyone like Turkey? 

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

2 hours ago, Mr.United_Nations said:

Obviously they were run by military generals who had no experience with the oil sector.

Yup. Sad that Maduro didn't like the idea that the pros were making big money so he replaced them with loyalist no nothing stooges. Now the production has dropped so badly that they have defaulted on loans that were predicated on a higher level of production/income.

2 hours ago, Mr.United_Nations said:

Also anyone noticed how Turkey is backing Maduro? Does anyone like Turkey? 

Turkey and Russia is now speaking out. Screw both of them

[Farmer77]

Trump-bashing Iraq war architect Elliott Abrams to lead US regime change in Venezuela

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

So glad to see America take a stance against dictators. Venezuela is on the verge. I think we are justified in giving a little push.

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

The pressure is mounting on Maduro, this time, from Europe.

European powers poised to recognize Venezuela's Guaido

 

MADRID (Reuters) - Major European countries threw their weight behind Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido on Saturday saying they would recognize him as interim president if Nicolas Maduro failed to call elections within eight days.

[spud the mackem]

I was at Venezuela on a tanker around 1955 and the people then were ruled by fear ,we were not allowed ashore through the oil terminal gates which were guarded by soldiers. The workers were counted in and out of the gates in case some decided to stowaway, not a nice place then ,and things have not improved over the years ,I just hope they are not exchanging one Dictator for another just as bad . It will probably depend which side the military decide to go along with.

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

19 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

I was at Venezuela on a tanker around 1955 and the people then were ruled by fear ,we were not allowed ashore through the oil terminal gates which were guarded by soldiers. The workers were counted in and out of the gates in case some decided to stowaway, not a nice place then ,and things have not improved over the years ,I just hope they are not exchanging one Dictator for another just as bad . It will probably depend which side the military decide to go along with.

Good post, Spud.

From what I know, Guaido has promised he will only be iterim President and he will imediatley call for elections. So there's hope.

[Princess Serenity]

5 hours ago, spud the mackem said:

I was at Venezuela on a tanker around 1955 and the people then were ruled by fear ,we were not allowed ashore through the oil terminal gates which were guarded by soldiers. The workers were counted in and out of the gates in case some decided to stowaway, not a nice place then ,and things have not improved over the years ,I just hope they are not exchanging one Dictator for another just as bad . It will probably depend which side the military decide to go along with.

Really? Even back then? Got anymore stories??

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

More cracks. ----------------------------

Venezuelan military attache defects to US

A Venezuelan military envoy has defected from the government of President Maduro and urged the armed forces to support Juan Guaido as the country's leader.

 

Looks like Dear Leader is going to go for a ride, a wild ride.  

[Tatetopa]

Being selfish about it, we do have many reasons to hope Guaido is successful, business and oil opportunities being among them.  Additionally, a revolution in Venezuela will likely add to the immigrant caravans heading north. .

[RoofGardener]

8 hours ago, Earl.Of.Trumps said:

More cracks. ----------------------------

Venezuelan military attache defects to US

A Venezuelan military envoy has defected from the government of President Maduro and urged the armed forces to support Juan Guaido as the country's leader.

 

Looks like Dear Leader is going to go for a ride, a wild ride.  

Hold on a minute... has he actually requested asylum in the USA ? The article merely states that he has defected 'from the government of President  Maduro". But the linked article title says he has defected to the USA ? If it is the latter, then this could just be economic opportunism ? 

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

5 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Being selfish about it, we do have many reasons to hope Guaido is successful, business and oil opportunities being among them.  Additionally, a revolution in Venezuela will likely add to the immigrant caravans heading north. .

It's been happening, Tat.  600,000 of them have come to America, the second highest receiver of Ven refugees (Colombia = 1) .  But they slip into America without fanfare because they don't come in illegally. Also, the people fleeing are the "best and the brightest" and they are seeking jobs, not welfare.

Bring 'em on!  

[Earl.Of.Trumps]

4 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Hold on a minute... has he actually requested asylum in the USA ? The article merely states that he has defected 'from the government of President  Maduro". But the linked article title says he has defected to the USA ? If it is the latter, then this could just be economic opportunism ? 

Could be, RG.  Either way, it is a huge slap in the face to Maduro.  Let's not forget the National Guardsmen that rebelled, too.

If the military goes, the game is over.  and right now, the military looks quite tentative.

[spud the mackem]

16 hours ago, Princess Serenity said:

Really? Even back then? Got anymore stories??

 

16 hours ago, Princess Serenity said:

Really? Even back then? Got anymore stories??

Yes but they don't fit into this thread ,cheers

[RoofGardener]

1 hour ago, spud the mackem said:

 

Yes but they don't fit into this thread ,cheers

Meh.. the thread is boring. 

Lets hear your stories  

[Mr.United_Nations]

3 hours ago, Earl.Of.Trumps said:

Could be, RG.  Either way, it is a huge slap in the face to Maduro.  Let's not forget the National Guardsmen that rebelled, too.

If the military goes, the game is over.  and right now, the military looks quite tentative.

From my sources they get paid quite well and lots of benefit. The problem is they are scared if some of them turn on Maduro, get caught and punished

[Princess Serenity]

6 hours ago, spud the mackem said:

 

Yes but they don't fit into this thread ,cheers

Ah okay. <3 I'll have to read a wiki article about Venezuela.