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RavenHawk

Heartaches by the numbers

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RavenHawk

With this Green New Deal out, I thought we could play a common sense game with some numbers.  We raise about $3 trillion in revenue every year, correct?  Do I need links for that?  The top 10% pay 80% of the tax burden ($2.4T) and they are in the 35% tax bracket.  Do I need a link for that?  Just for argument sake, we triple the tax rate of that top 10% which then puts them at 105% tax rate.  That gives us $7.8T in revenue.  Now this number will begin to drop as supplies of product and services dwindle as previous levels cannot be sustained.  Producers will have to raise prices to maintain what they have.  If not, they will go out of business or move to a different country.  What is happening is that this money is just getting recycled without giving it a chance to grow.  It’s initially in the form of wealth created by the people, then it is taxed and then equally redistributed as wages, which is then taxed again.

 

In a standard work week, a person will work 2080 hours a year.  The question would be, what would a living wage be?  I can’t see anything less than $20 an hour will do.  If we have 100% participation in the workforce, that would be around 160 million.  That’s just a rough round number for argument sake; do I need a link for that?  So that is basically $6.5T ($13T if we give everyone a living wage).  That gives us $1.3T to pay for everything else.

 

There are roughly 3 million grads from high school every year.  Let’s say that 1 million drop out by graduation, so 4 million total in each level of school per year whether they attend or not.  17 yrs (pre-k to 4th year college) x 4 million = 68.  Let’s say it costs $40,000 per year (it’s probably much more) = $2.7T.  Do you need any link for that?  That pushes us into the hole now, how are we going to pay for it all?

 

Healthcare – as we get more unhealthy, that cost will go up.  The estimate is already at $3T a year ($32T over the next 10 years).

 

This doesn’t include paying down the debt (I guess we can forget that), defense (if you present a paper tiger, why do it at all?), or infrastructure (who’s going to do the work to maintain it?).  This also doesn’t include rebuilding every building or the impact on the economy by eliminating fossil fuels.  But this is easily in the trillions per year.

 

So 7.8 - 6.5 - 2.7 – 3 - ? = -4.4+.  We just print more money and then things will be ok, right?  Inflation will get out of hand and our credit rating will drop, but these things are just a nuisance.  But the thing is, is that as the nation’s wealth is dispersed as a guaranteed living wage is distributed, that amount will dwindle bit by bit.  With no incentive to maintain roads and what not, the state will have to coerce people to do the work.  You can always import immigrants but within a year or two, even they won’t want to work if they know they can get free stuff without work.  Eventually all new immigrants will understand that.  The number of immigrants will increase but revenue will fall.  Eventually, the tap will go dry and immigrants won’t want to come to America and people will be leaving this shithole of a country.  With millions of immigrants with no incentive to assimilate, society will collapse.

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Tatetopa
17 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

In a standard work week, a person will work 2080 hours a year.  The question would be, what would a living wage be?  I can’t see anything less than $20 an hour will do.  If we have 100% participation in the workforce, that would be around 160 million.  That’s just a rough round number for argument sake; do I need a link for that?  So that is basically $6.5T ($13T if we give everyone a living wage).  That gives us $1.3T to pay for everything else.

More on this one please.

I have worked in manufacturing most of my life.  The current starting wage in this foundry is $14.80 plus benefits  does push it up to near $20 dollars and hour.  Take home is far less than that, but it provides a living wage, not luxury or entitlement, but a living wage.  The company I work for makes a ton of money (I know that because salaried people get a profit sharing bonus and I get to see profit margins as part of my job.) with that payroll burden and pays  all the taxes on it  too including social security, workers comp, medicare, and unemployment insurance. We don't get our wages from the government RavenHawk, we produce a product at a profit.  Our wages don't come out of revenue.

27 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

There are roughly 3 million grads from high school every year.  Let’s say that 1 million drop out by graduation, so 4 million total in each level of school per year whether they attend or not.  17 yrs (pre-k to 4th year college) x 4 million = 68.  Let’s say it costs $40,000 per year (it’s probably much more) = $2.7T.  Do you need any link for that?  That pushes us into the hole now, how are we going to pay for it all?

The current expenditure per student is projected to be $12,910 for the 2018–19 school year (source). About 3.6 million students are expected to graduate from high school in 2018–19, including 3.3 million students from public high schools and 0.4 million students from private high schools (source).
 
High school graduation rates in the U.S. are at an all-time high. At 84 percent, the national rate means that more than 4 out of 5 high school students earn a diploma in four years, according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics.May 18, 2018
College Attendance Rates. In 2016, the most recent year for which statistics are available, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 69.7 percent of students who graduated high school in 2016 were enrolled in college.
 
So where do all of your numbers come from?  I am not following.  You put up some numbers , what assumptions are you making about what happens?
 
If I didn't know you better, I would say you are some kind of liberal.  $20 an hour for a living wage?  $40,000 a year for schools costs?
 
What point are you trying to make, that everybody can't have a free ride living in the lap of luxury if nobody works?    I don't think you could find many to argue that point.   I had not seen the promise in the New Green Deal that the top tax rate would be 105% or that everybody gets a free ride. 
 
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Setton

And yet the rest of the world manages it. 

So much for American exceptionalism. 

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Aquila King

(Just as a side note - the guy in the video is being facetious about the whole 'free stuff' line. He's joking. No lefty actually calls any of what we support 'free stuff', that's just a right-wing smear, and he knows it. He just thinks he's being funny by calling it that, sort of poking fun of that common right-wing smear. He's one of those guys who's good at laying out point-by-point all the cold-hard facts, but who's jokes are delivered with all the energy and excitement of a dead sloth. Just thought I'd point that out.)

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Imaginarynumber1
2 hours ago, Setton said:

And yet the rest of the world manages it. 

So much for American exceptionalism. 

Hey.. be fair. For a first world nation, our citizenry is fantastically stupid and hilariously undereducated.

That's pretty exceptional 

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Aquila King
29 minutes ago, Imaginarynumber1 said:

Hey.. be fair. For a first world nation, our citizenry is fantastically stupid and hilariously undereducated.

That's pretty exceptional 

I don't know whether they don't know, or they don't care.

It's just a fact that what we're asking for is the exact same thing that nearly every other modern nation has, and it's just a fact that those other countries beat us statistically in every area. The US routinely ranks at the bottom.

One minute conservatives are praising America for being the wealthiest nation on earth, then the next minute they're saying we can't afford what every other modern nation has. Then they say that even if we can afford it, we shouldn't do it cause it's bad for the economy or whatever, despite the simple empirical fact that it's not, since if it is then every developed nation on earth would've had their economies crash by now.

Their arguments against it aren't just factually wrong on every level, each argument they raise contradicts the others. So it appears more to me like they're just making up excuses rather than merely being uneducated on the topic. No doubt the US is uneducated, but we're also just downright stupid.

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DingoLingo
4 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

The current starting wage in this foundry is $14.80 plus benefits  

 

Gods.. I do not get out of bed for less then $30 a hour, mind you I do not get penalty rates etc.. most of my jobs pay between 30 - 45 a hour.. thats  for mining fifo.. residential .. monday to friday its generally around 25 to 35 per hour depending on the company.. 

:D below is our minimum wage here in Australia.. 

Minimum wage by age set by Fair Work Australia (1 July 2014)
Age % of national minimum wage Minimum hourly rate
17 57.8% $9.75
18 68.3% $11.52
19 82.5% $13.92
20 97.7% $16.48

 

a break down on the cost of living between Australia and the US

Consumer Prices in United States are 3.80% lower than in Australia
Consumer Prices Including Rent in United States are 0.66% higher than in Australia
Rent Prices in United States are 10.55% higher than in Australia
Restaurant Prices in United States are 2.23% lower than in Australia
Groceries Prices in United States are 0.15% higher than in Australia

Local Purchasing Power in United States is 1.32% lower than in Australia

good thing about here is our guys on minimum wage do not have to live off Tips.. they are just like a extra bonus if they get them. 

 

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Big Jim
5 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

The question would be, what would a living wage be?  I can’t see anything less than $20 an hour will do. 

I hope that idea reaches the Social Security Administration.  

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joc
7 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

The question would be, what would a living wage be?

All jobs pay the same.  No difference between the McDonalds employee and the Anethesiologist or Brain or Heart Surgeon.  Descaling fish pays the same as being an NFL or MBA SuperStar.  Everyone gets the same pay.  Just divide up the GNP divide it between 380 million people and be done with it.  Everyone gets to live in a house that is at least 3 bedrooms.  Everyone has free health care.  Everyone has free food.  The same food.  No choices in grocery stores...you get what everyone else gets.  Same clothes...no colored clothing...only black white or grey...maybe brown.  All cars will be made by Tesla.  Tesla employees and Tesla CEO and owners make the same thing as Walmart employees.  

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Aquila King
1 hour ago, joc said:

All jobs pay the same.  No difference between the McDonalds employee and the Anethesiologist or Brain or Heart Surgeon.  Descaling fish pays the same as being an NFL or MBA SuperStar.  Everyone gets the same pay.  Just divide up the GNP divide it between 380 million people and be done with it.  Everyone gets to live in a house that is at least 3 bedrooms.  Everyone has free health care.  Everyone has free food.  The same food.  No choices in grocery stores...you get what everyone else gets.  Same clothes...no colored clothing...only black white or grey...maybe brown.  All cars will be made by Tesla.  Tesla employees and Tesla CEO and owners make the same thing as Walmart employees.  

I specifically remember explaining to you Joc exactly what I and many other Social Democrats support, so I know that you know that that's not at all accurate to what we believe. Not even close.

At one point I thought you simply lived in your own conservative bubble and genuinely didn't know what those on the other side actually believed. But what this shows is that you simply want to slander and smear.

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Tatetopa
1 hour ago, joc said:

All jobs pay the same.  No difference between the McDonalds employee and the Anethesiologist or Brain or Heart Surgeon.  Descaling fish pays the same as being an NFL or MBA SuperStar.  Everyone gets the same pay.  Just divide up the GNP divide it between 380 million people and be done with it.  Everyone gets to live in a house that is at least 3 bedrooms.  Everyone has free health care.  Everyone has free food.  The same food.  No choices in grocery stores...you get what everyone else gets.  Same clothes...no colored clothing...only black white or grey...maybe brown.  All cars will be made by Tesla.  Tesla employees and Tesla CEO and owners make the same thing as Walmart employees.  

Is this another brilliant conservative idea?  Why should everybody make the same pay?

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Tatetopa
3 hours ago, DingoLingo said:

Gods.. I do not get out of bed for less then $30 a hour,

Some people make a whole lot more than $30 per hour here by staying in bed.

Seriously, there are a lot of skilled jobs and dangerous jobs that pay more in your range.  The hourly people in my plant were expected to work 54 hours a week.  That is the max allowed by the state. It is cheaper to pay the overtime than hire more people. Also, skilled, reliable are getting harder to find as we drain the labor pool.  I have been told the break-even is about 58 hours.They start under $15 and go up to about $22.  Welders and millwirghts make close to $30   Engineers, robot programmers and some technicians are in the $30-40 range.   There are only about 40 of us in a 700 employee plant.  Don't know what the managers make.  I transferred from a 3000 employee facility 5 years ago.  The picture was the same there.

Just checked this for the heck of it.  

Average Coal Mine Worker Hourly Pay

$21.01
Avg. Hourly Rate
 

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Likely Guy

FYI.

American $ = 1.00 USD

Australian $ = .71 USD

Canadian $ = .76 USD

Edited by Likely Guy

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Setton
7 hours ago, Imaginarynumber1 said:

Hey.. be fair. For a first world nation, our citizenry is fantastically stupid and hilariously undereducated.

That's pretty exceptional 

I did have something along those lines to start with. Thought it might go over certain heads though... 

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joc
6 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Is this another brilliant conservative idea?  Why should everybody make the same pay?

Because it isn't fair that Bill Gates has 90 Billion and I don't.  It's not fair that some people have a job that affords them a nice house and nice cars and others have a job that cannot afford them basic rent plus food plus 'any' car payment.

It's all about being fair Tatetopa.  Communism!  That's where fairness is.  No jealousy.  No greed.  Just work and live like everyone else.  Now shut up and go put on your grey sweats, get in your grey car, and drive down to the building to stand in line with everyone else for 30 hours so you can get the same loaf of bread everyone else is getting.  And don't complain while you are waiting.  Your Government loves you!

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joc
7 hours ago, Aquila King said:

I specifically remember explaining to you Joc exactly what I and many other Social Democrats support, so I know that you know that that's not at all accurate to what we believe. Not even close.

At one point I thought you simply lived in your own conservative bubble and genuinely didn't know what those on the other side actually believed. But what this shows is that you simply want to slander and smear.

Maybe you are just taking it all too personal.  Where in my Communist Diatribe did I even mention you anywhere? 

I'm not slandering anyone.  Communism is the natural progression of Socialism.  And 'being fair' to a fault is the natural progression of socialism.  I care about people.  I care enough to let them have the Freedom to figure their own lives out without Government trying to take care of everyone.

Edited by joc
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Ellapennella
17 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

With this Green New Deal out, I thought we could play a common sense game with some numbers.  We raise about $3 trillion in revenue every year, correct?  Do I need links for that?  The top 10% pay 80% of the tax burden ($2.4T) and they are in the 35% tax bracket.  Do I need a link for that?  Just for argument sake, we triple the tax rate of that top 10% which then puts them at 105% tax rate.  That gives us $7.8T in revenue.  Now this number will begin to drop as supplies of product and services dwindle as previous levels cannot be sustained.  Producers will have to raise prices to maintain what they have.  If not, they will go out of business or move to a different country.  What is happening is that this money is just getting recycled without giving it a chance to grow.  It’s initially in the form of wealth created by the people, then it is taxed and then equally redistributed as wages, which is then taxed again.

 

 

 

In a standard work week, a person will work 2080 hours a year.  The question would be, what would a living wage be?  I can’t see anything less than $20 an hour will do.  If we have 100% participation in the workforce, that would be around 160 million.  That’s just a rough round number for argument sake; do I need a link for that?  So that is basically $6.5T ($13T if we give everyone a living wage).  That gives us $1.3T to pay for everything else.

 

 

 

There are roughly 3 million grads from high school every year.  Let’s say that 1 million drop out by graduation, so 4 million total in each level of school per year whether they attend or not.  17 yrs (pre-k to 4th year college) x 4 million = 68.  Let’s say it costs $40,000 per year (it’s probably much more) = $2.7T.  Do you need any link for that?  That pushes us into the hole now, how are we going to pay for it all?

 

 

 

Healthcare – as we get more unhealthy, that cost will go up.  The estimate is already at $3T a year ($32T over the next 10 years).

 

 

 

This doesn’t include paying down the debt (I guess we can forget that), defense (if you present a paper tiger, why do it at all?), or infrastructure (who’s going to do the work to maintain it?).  This also doesn’t include rebuilding every building or the impact on the economy by eliminating fossil fuels.  But this is easily in the trillions per year.

 

 

 

So 7.8 - 6.5 - 2.7 – 3 - ? = -4.4+.  We just print more money and then things will be ok, right?  Inflation will get out of hand and our credit rating will drop, but these things are just a nuisance.  But the thing is, is that as the nation’s wealth is dispersed as a guaranteed living wage is distributed, that amount will dwindle bit by bit.  With no incentive to maintain roads and what not, the state will have to coerce people to do the work.  You can always import immigrants but within a year or two, even they won’t want to work if they know they can get free stuff without work.  Eventually all new immigrants will understand that.  The number of immigrants will increase but revenue will fall.  Eventually, the tap will go dry and immigrants won’t want to come to America and people will be leaving this shithole of a country.  With millions of immigrants with no incentive to assimilate, society will collapse.

They're serious, they're not joking. Have you heard of Charles Lawson? Have you heard of the 2030 UN targeted goals to transform our society and world by 2030? That's just within 11 years from now. 

 

 

 

 

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OverSword
18 hours ago, Setton said:

And yet the rest of the world manages it. 

So much for American exceptionalism. 

And yet I work in an office of 80 people there are 12 immigrants from England.  Must be the bottom of your barrel I suppose huh ;).  You need to get out of your cuntry every once in while.  The USA isn't really like My Name's Earl.

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OverSword
21 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

The question would be, what would a living wage be?

That depends on where you're at.  Here the minimum is very high and so is everything else.  New Mexico on the other hand has a much lower minimum wage because everything there is cheaper.  So that same factor affects what a living wage is from one state to another.

Edited by OverSword

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OverSword
17 hours ago, Aquila King said:

No lefty actually calls any of what we support 'free stuff',

Does that include the section of the Green New Deal wherein we give money to people that "don't want to work"?  That seems like a lefty calling for free stuff.

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Aquila King
5 hours ago, joc said:

Maybe you are just taking it all too personal.  Where in my Communist Diatribe did I even mention you anywhere? 

I'm not slandering anyone. 

When you knowingly inaccurately represent someone else's views, that's typically called slander.

Again, I've explained all this to you before, yet you knowingly misrepresent the opposition.

5 hours ago, joc said:

Communism is the natural progression of Socialism. 

That's like saying "Anarchism is the natural progression of Capitalism." No, it's not. There is literally no factual basis for the claim.

5 hours ago, joc said:

And 'being fair' to a fault is the natural progression of socialism. 

If you seriously want to argue against fairness and equal opportunity, then be my guest. That's simply an indefensible position.

5 hours ago, joc said:

I care about people.  I care enough to let them have the Freedom to figure their own lives out without Government trying to take care of everyone.

"I care so much about others that I don't help them out at all so they can help themselves out instead." - That's essentially what you're saying here.

Try that with your lover here on Valentine's Day dude. "I love you so much I decided to get you nothing! Get your own damn flowers and chocolates." :D

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Aquila King
3 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Does that include the section of the Green New Deal wherein we give money to people that "don't want to work"?  That seems like a lefty calling for free stuff.

You're the one calling it that, not us.

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OverSword
10 minutes ago, Aquila King said:

You're the one calling it that, not us.

No, not me.  It's in the Green New Deal.

Quote

 

The Green New Deal that Democrats proposed Thursday looks to create a more environmentally sound country with economic benefits for everyone — even those who don't want to work.

An overview circulated by proponents states the plan seeks a "massive transformation of our society" that could rid the country of fossil fuels and "create millions of family supporting-wage [sic] union jobs."

But for those not interested in working, there's something in the plan as well.

 

The overview notes that the Green New Deal aims to provide "economic security for all who are unable or unwilling to work."

 

Link  And that's from CNBC not FOX or Alex Jones.

Edited by OverSword
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Big Jim
19 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Does that include the section of the Green New Deal wherein we give money to people that "don't want to work"?  That seems like a lefty calling for free stuff.

Money for nothing and chicks for free.

 

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OverSword
Just now, Big Jim said:

Money for nothing and chicks for free.

 

That's the way you do it.  Play the Guitar n the M-TV

oversword.jpg

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