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Eldorado

NYC to finally get self-drive shuttle service

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aztek
52 minutes ago, Setton said:

Yes, it mentions them. Once. 

But that's not what the post was about or what we were talking about when you blundered into the conversation. I appreciate literacy isn't your strong suit but maybe ask someone to help if you're struggling that much. 

naw, i'll just ignore you. 

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Tatetopa
On 3/21/2019 at 2:19 PM, OverSword said:

That's funny that there are some sad face responses to this.  That's like throwing a sad face up 120 years ago if someone predicted that soon there will be no horses used for transportation and the nation will be criss crossed with concrete highways and people will spend thousands of dollars each keeping a vehicle on the road.

With the automated era we're heading towards you won't have to buy a car, insurance, gas...road fatalities will be near zero (how many dead people do you know killed in car accidents) people won't ruin their lives with a ticket for being .0001 over the legal limit.  The list of pluses is really pretty long, and it is going to happen.

I think there are a lot of pluses indeed. 

I cannot totally dismiss Preacherman's notion that many people will be displaced.  Have you ever been at home when a strange car pulls up and any sort of person male, female, young, or old  pops out and puts your Amazon package on your porch, jumps back in, consults a phone GPS and is off again?  The "gig economy", no permanence, no insurance, just trying to make ends meet.  If they were laid off from another job, driving a delivery truck for example, they may be making a lot less and even using their own car to do it.  Lots of those displaced people will be working long and hard, but living from paycheck to paycheck and maybe losing investments like their house, an IRA or 401k if they had it.

But that is just the way capitalism rolls, cut expenses, increase efficiency and profit.

Oversword, it strikes me that we are pretty close to the era of AI  that it won't be long until some medical personnel, legal assistants, teachers, all sorts of intermediate clerical personnel, engineers, managers, and insurance agents all competing for those Amazon delivery gigs.

It is just about  easier to put together a good expert system these days and load it up the combined intelligence and experience of  a dozen professionals in a field than it is to design an AI responsive enough to drive a truck.  I think the generation of AI's that hit the road when it happens will even be able to surprise aztek by driving over grass and off road when required.

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OverSword

@Tatetopa about the obsolete workers. No doubt about that. Of course there will be other new jobs we can’t imagine yet as be well but at some point there will probably be some kind of basic universal income (which rubs me the wrong way) but I’m not in charge. If I was hip hop would outlawed. B)

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Tatetopa
3 hours ago, OverSword said:

@Tatetopa about the obsolete workers. No doubt about that. Of course there will be other new jobs we can’t imagine yet as be well but at some point there will probably be some kind of basic universal income (which rubs me the wrong way) but I’m not in charge. If I was hip hop would outlawed

Yes indeed.  I still have that feeling that giving somebody their money for nothing and their chicks for free will put us in dire straits.  Seriously, it is not good for people to be unchallenged in life.

So Oversword, I think this is a big issue for the future that we ought to be talking about before it overtakes us by surprise. All of society, not just government will have to come to terms with this  in the next couple of generations.  Preacherman has a solid point, that  economy is designed for human participants. Efficient factories producing goods that people without a source of income cannot purchase misses the point. And maybe a society that does not at least offer the possibility of self- fulfillment and personal growth is not functioning properly. 

Then to, I am tempted to go along with your ban on hip hop.

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OverSword

@Tatetopa You are absolutely right about a functional society. 

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Gromdor
11 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Yes indeed.  I still have that feeling that giving somebody their money for nothing and their chicks for free will put us in dire straits.  Seriously, it is not good for people to be unchallenged in life.

So Oversword, I think this is a big issue for the future that we ought to be talking about before it overtakes us by surprise. All of society, not just government will have to come to terms with this  in the next couple of generations.  Preacherman has a solid point, that  economy is designed for human participants. Efficient factories producing goods that people without a source of income cannot purchase misses the point. And maybe a society that does not at least offer the possibility of self- fulfillment and personal growth is not functioning properly. 

Then to, I am tempted to go along with your ban on hip hop.

I dunno, our retired on Social Security still contribute to our society greatly. 

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aztek
Posted (edited)

there are tons of possibilities for self- fulfillment and personal growth, what many lack is patience, determination, will to achieve that,  and some are outright lazy,  but it's so much easier to do nothing and cry for universal income.

Edited by aztek

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Setton
23 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Yes indeed.  I still have that feeling that giving somebody their money for nothing and their chicks for free will put us in dire straits.  Seriously, it is not good for people to be unchallenged in life.

I don't think anyone's ever suggested that though. The idea of universal basic income is that everyone has enough to live on. No more than that. You want more, you have to work for it. 

So same incentive as now but without the starving/homeless people. 

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Farmer77
1 minute ago, Setton said:

So same incentive as now but without the starving/homeless people. 

I've fully fallen in love with the UBI concept. I cant even begin to fathom the things I would be able to accomplish with just that small peace of mind and im average joe. Can you imagine the benefits to our world when millions of minds are freed from the crushing stress of survival and actually have the ability to use those minds to accomplish something beyond mere survival?

The benefits in the first generation would be astounding but its the following generations where we would really see the pay off start : Neurocognitive impacts for children of poverty and neglect

Quote

Children who grow up in low income households and who have experienced neglect are at risk for difficulties with cognitive and academic achievement

 

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spartan max2
On 3/20/2019 at 6:40 PM, preacherman76 said:

This will eventually destroy our economy.  Once they go as far as they plan, millions of people will be out of jobs. Good paying often lower middle class jobs. 

Congress needs to ban self driving vehicles. 

I’d personally never step foot in a car that drives itself. Way to many potential things that could go wrong. Who among us has ever had a computer that never malfunctioned in any way? Now instead of it being a inconvenience, you just die. Or worse. 

Hold up there man lol.

If you have been on a plane any within the last couple decades then you basically have been under an automated service. Planes are almost entirely autopiloted at this point. There are way less crashes because of it. 

New jobs open up as old jobs disappear. I imagine this would help business a great deal by cutting the cost of transporting goods. 

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aztek
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Hold up there man lol.

If you have been on a plane any within the last couple decades then you basically have been under an automated service. Planes are almost entirely autopiloted at this point. There are way less crashes because of it. 

New jobs open up as old jobs disappear. I imagine this would help business a great deal by cutting the cost of transporting goods. 

i've never been on a plane without a pilot.  

good example b737, if it was not for pilot's quick reaction, there would be more crashes

Edited by aztek

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spartan max2
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, aztek said:

i've never been on a plane without a pilot.  

good example b737, if it was not for pilot's quick reaction, there would be more crashes

They still need a pilot to babysit if there is a malfunction. And for landings and take offs. But once it's in the air they aren't doing anything.

There would be much more crashes without the software in the planes. Hence the hundreds of safe flights dailey.

Edited by spartan max2

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aztek
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

They still need a pilot to babysit if there is a malfunction. And for landings and take offs. But once it's in the air they aren't doing anything.

There would be much more crashes without the software in the planes.

that is pretty much most important parts of flight.  

i actually looked up stats on crashes, since 60's pre software time, i do not see evidence for  much more crashes without the software in the planes.

Edited by aztek

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spartan max2
4 minutes ago, aztek said:

that is pretty much most important parts of flight.  

I'm unsure what point youre trying to make ?

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aztek
1 minute ago, spartan max2 said:

I'm unsure what point youre trying to make ?

that you can't compare automated portion of a flight to self driving cars, apples and oranges

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spartan max2
1 minute ago, aztek said:

that you can't compare automated portion of a flight to self driving cars, apples and oranges

Ahh okay.

I think it can be compared some since the majority or your flight is automated. Not the exact same thing but it is easy to imagine how a self driving car experience would be similar.

Eventually they will automate take offs and landings, but will always have a pilot to keep an eye on it.

 

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toast
15 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

I've fully fallen in love with the UBI concept. I cant even begin to fathom the things I would be able to accomplish with just that small peace of mind and im average joe. Can you imagine the benefits to our world when millions of minds are freed from the crushing stress of survival and actually have the ability to use those minds to accomplish something beyond mere survival?

The UBI concept, or a similar one, will be the only option for the next and deep future. AI is taking big steps forward, and millions of jobs will be crushed by the ongoing process. AI will improve the factor of effectiveness mostly in service jobs, or in other words, a higher number of customers can be handled with lower number of employees. The outlook into this kind of economic future, and so to the prosperity of citizens of industrial driven nations, is not recognized by politics and political leaders yet in a fashion, and with the level of priority, it should be. And average Joe`s (not you!) only opinion to UBI is that "the lazy ones would not work anymore, so its BS." And the same kind of average Joe is clapping his hands when, for example, GM announce that they will invest 10B USD within the next 5 years ("Thank you Mr President, well done!"). But stupid Joe dont know that key investments by industries who are based on automated production often dont invest because of an increasing demand for their products, but because of lower costs of production per unit by reducing the most expensive factor in the  chain: human workers. 

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aztek

Finland’s failed universal income experiment.

 

Finland just concluded a two-year experiment with universal basic income, an idea promoted by prominent figures on the right and left in U.S. politics as one answer to rising automation and the unequal distribution of income. The outcome predictably was a disappointment.

UBI advocates have been quick to say the experiment was not a proper test of the idea, but the findings should not be surprising. They say more about the way social welfare systems can trap people into poverty than they do about the value of putting more money in their pockets.

In the experiment, the Finnish government gave a no-conditions monthly payment of $634 to 2,000 unemployed people and compared the effects with a control group consisting of other unemployed people on welfare. One hope was that the extra money would encourage the recipients to look harder for work.

 

The finding was that recipients of the payments “were no better or worse than the control groups at finding employment in the open labor market,” said Ohto Kaninen of the Finnish Labor Institute for Economic Research.

Finland's failed universal basic income experiment should be a lesson for U.S.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/audience/david-whitley/os-sp-finland-universal-income-0424-story.html

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Tatetopa
1 hour ago, Gromdor said:

I dunno, our retired on Social Security still contribute to our society greatly. 

Indeed they do.  I am one of them.   I spent fifty years in the work force, and mostly enjoyed what I did.  I made that SS payment every month and have some sense that I earned the monthly stipend. I have been reasonably well paid, and now that I have no children in school, I can live just on SS without sacrifice, but I don't.  I stashed a pretty good amount away in IRA's and a 401k  while I was working.so I can do a few extras, and we can leave the principal  to kids and grand kids to invest or blow.

Not everybody is so lucky and they can't live comfortably on their SS check.  They may not have the extra personal savings either.  So maybe they need some rent assistance, or some heating oil in the winter, or some groceries , or some food assistance.  They may have worked harder than I did but their rewards were not as great financially.  They may be great parents and model citizens.  A bit of extra assistance for them seems very reasonable.

Gromdor, that is why I believe we need to put some thought into how to do this. 

People knock a UBI as creating lazy, non-working people.  See the above comments on Finland.  A UBI does not replace incentive and education, however, it could augment those.  Maybe true that people did not find jobs quicker on UBI, but maybe they got better medical care or paid their bills on time. So if just giving money to people or letting them starve, the polar opposites, are not ideal options, maybe something in the middle happens.  Credit for education or volunteer jobs might be one avenue..  

People do need a sense of worth and belonging beyond income. People are creative in different ways.  Maybe one person drops out of high school to writes phone apps and relies on minimum income for six months until income from one of their apps takes over. and they become wealthy.  Maybe another drops out of high school, learns to prune fruit trees and joins a volunteer program to help elderly and disabled people care for their gardens. Maybe they rely on UBI for  their entire lives.   It could be that they add just as much value to society  as another  phone app and deserve to feel proud of what they do and how many people they have helped. 

The future is going to come and get us even if we ignore it or try to walk backwards. It seems best to look ahead. discuss options and plan.  Fortunately for us old timers a new generation is coming up with new ideas and maybe more appropriate ones to fit the future they will inherit.  We can help now, but eventually they will own it.

 

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preacherman76
4 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

Hold up there man lol.

If you have been on a plane any within the last couple decades then you basically have been under an automated service. Planes are almost entirely autopiloted at this point. There are way less crashes because of it. 

Commercial planes have tons of maintenance done to them. Plus it’s not like they have split second decisions when something goes wrong. 

 

4 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

New jobs open up as old jobs disappear. I imagine this would help business a great deal by cutting the cost of transporting goods. 

What new jobs do you see on the horizon that will employ a couple million, chances are lower then average educated people, and will pay them anywhere near what they were paid as drivers?

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toast
4 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

New jobs open up as old jobs disappear.

But the ratio will not be 1 to 1.

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Eldorado

Here's a read for anyone interested...

Professors from MIT and Boston University discuss why you need to worry about the ‘wrong kind of AI’.

https://hub.packtpub.com/professors-from-mit-and-boston-university-discuss-why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-wrong-kind-of-ai/

The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand.

PDF at MIT edu: https://economics.mit.edu/files/16819

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aztek

will music bands ever be replaced? maybe lol

 

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