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itsnotoutthere

Brexit Party Odds-on to Win Westminster Seat

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itsnotoutthere
Posted (edited)

Brexit Party Odds-on to Win Westminster Seat at Peterborough By-Election, Tories ‘out of the Race’

 

The Brexit Party has been given an 80 per cent chance of getting its first Westminster Parliament seat just two months after foundation by British bookmakers, who have slashed odds on a victory with less than a week to go until the polls open.

The Peterborough by-election, triggered by the first ever successful removal of a sitting Member of Parliament by constituents in a recall petition in the United Kingdom, comes after the sitting Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was found guilty of perverting the course of justice and jailed.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/05/31/brexit-party-odds-on-win-peterborough-by-election/

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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stevewinn
Posted (edited)

It would be good after their national victory. Let's wait and see, signs look good. But then it's a tall order, as they could come last if they add up all the 'others' (again) 

Edited by stevewinn
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Aaron2016

I remember the night of the referendum.  I placed a £60 bet on remain winning, and went to bed.  I woke up around 4AM and turned on the radio, and I just heard a guy saying - "If I were you I would be putting my money on Leave to win."  I rolled over and said 'damn' as I just lost £60 and drifted back to sleep.  I thought I could win my money back in November and I bet £80 on Hilary Clinton winning the US election.  We know how that turned out.  <_<  At least I won something - a valuable lesson not to bet on a 'dead cert'.

 

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bee
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

I remember the night of the referendum.  I placed a £60 bet on remain winning, and went to bed.  I woke up around 4AM and turned on the radio, and I just heard a guy saying - "If I were you I would be putting my money on Leave to win."  I rolled over and said 'damn' as I just lost £60 and drifted back to sleep.  I thought I could win my money back in November and I bet £80 on Hilary Clinton winning the US election.  We know how that turned out.  <_<  At least I won something - a valuable lesson not to bet on a 'dead cert'.

 


ouch ......

you have to wonder what was going on with the bookies for the EU referendum and US election...
usually they have their finger on the pulse because the existence of their business depends
on getting it right... the odds and whatnot... (   

just had a look at the Oddschecker site and from the odds it looks like it's between Brexit Party and Labour ...

at the moment around 1/5 for BP... 4/1 Lab...

and Lib Dems ranging from 10/1 to 20/1....

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/peterborough-by-election/winner

 

 

Edited by bee
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bee


 

these are the candidates for the Peterborough by election...

https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-by-election-final-list-of-15-candidates-revealed-1-8922013?page=4

just had a look for more details about Recall Petitions and there's another one in process in
Brecon and Radnorshire... Chris Davies, Conservative... so if they get enough signatures there
could be another by election soon..
 

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05089
 

Brecon and Radnorshire petition

"A recall petition is now open in the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency.

On Friday 22 March 2019, Chris Davies, the MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, pleaded guilty at Westminster Magistrates’ Court to charges brought under section 10 of the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009. His conviction met the third condition for the triggering of a recall petition.  The court referred Mr Davies to the crown court for sentencing.

On 25 March, a spokeswoman for the Speaker of the House said that when the court had informed Mr Speaker that sentencing had taken place, then the formal notice to launch a recall petition would be given.

Sentencing took place on 23 April and a formal announcement of the recall petition was made by the Speaker on 24 April. The petition will be open for signing from Thursday 9 May until Thursday 20 June 2019."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

from the same link...

"MPs can be recalled only under certain circumstances:

If they are convicted in the UK of an offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained and all appeals have been exhausted (and the sentence does not lead to automatic disqualification from being an MP);

If they are suspended from the House following report and recommended sanction from the Committee on Standards for a specified period (at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified).;

If they are convicted of an offence under section 10 of the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009 (making false or misleading Parliamentary allowances claims)"

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stevewinn
13 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

I remember the night of the referendum.  I placed a £60 bet on remain winning, and went to bed.  I woke up around 4AM and turned on the radio, and I just heard a guy saying - "If I were you I would be putting my money on Leave to win."  I rolled over and said 'damn' as I just lost £60 and drifted back to sleep.  I thought I could win my money back in November and I bet £80 on Hilary Clinton winning the US election.  We know how that turned out.  <_<  At least I won something - a valuable lesson not to bet on a 'dead cert'.

 

All that highlights is you don't know your onions.

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Eldorado

Related news...

"The Brexit Party has WON a general election voting poll for the first time ever in a shock result that almost put the Tories in fourth place.

"Nigel Farage's outfit - which has no manifesto and no non-Brexit policies - would top the bill in a Westminster election, according to polling firm Opinium."

Full monty at the Mirror: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-party-wins-shock-general-16242096

Tories now in third place, at 31 May.

At Opinium: https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-31st-may-2019/

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bee

 

re the poll about  voting intentions and the Brexit Party coming first...

I saw this about that other one that had Lib Dems 24% and BP 22%... Lab + Con at 19% each..

Now this isn't the most charismatic delivery or attractive setting.. :D... but it's just the no frills facts about it...

The result seems to have been skewed somewhat by not putting the BP as a stand alone option but putting
it in the 'other' category ...  

 

 

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bee

 

well the odds for The BP winning the Peterborough By Election are shortening...

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/peterborough-by-election/winner

today..

BP - ranging from 1/7 to 1/9 

Lab - ranging from 5/1 to 7/1

Lib Dem - ranging from 14/1 to 25/1

I wonder if anyone is tempted to lump on Lab or Lib Dem winning.....?

@Aaron2016 ?

;)

Only jesting.... you know what they say about not chasing your losses.. and at the moment it's looking good for BP...
but the odds are prohibitive...

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Eldorado

Some news on Nigel...

"Nigel Farage rejected a European Parliament committee request to appear in Brussels within 24 hours to testify about allegations that he failed to disclose gifts worth £450,000 from a British businessman."

Full report at Politico: https://www.politico.eu/article/farage-rejects-european-parliament-summons-over-undisclosed-gifts/

And at The Week : https://www.theweek.co.uk/101569/nigel-farage-faces-european-parliament-ban-over-undisclosed-gifts

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stevewinn

I wonder how it'll go today? at the close of play will the Brexit Party have a MP? if that happens shockwaves in British politics as MP's fear for their seats.

C'mon Peterborough lead the way be the first constituency to #changepoliticsforgood.

 

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bee
Posted (edited)

 

I'm disappointed the Brexit Party didn't win... although they did well to come close and come 2nd...

just goes to show that moving away from the tribal like 2 party system is not going to be easy
when it comes to the first past the post system ...
 

random link

"Defeated Brexit Party candidate Mr Greene said his campaign had failed to match Labour's organisation on the ground.

He said: "Naturally it is a blow to lose by so few votes, but you have to remember that the Labour Party have millions of pounds to throw at elections and have been doing this for more than a hundred years."
 

the winning Labour Candidate said...

 

"In a victory speech, she said her win had "shown that the politics of hope can win regardless of the odds".

"Despite the differing opinions across our city, the fact that the Brexit Party have been rejected here in Peterborough shows that the politics of division will not win," she said."
 


It's a bit of a stretch claiming the Brexit Party had been '''rejected''' when they nearly won...

and when it comes to '''hope''' IMO the two party system doesn't offer hope just more of the same
that has brought about widespread disrespect for Parliament...

It's the Labour / Conservative domination of politics that creates the classical ''''division'''' but typical
political double talk shifts this onto a new party that in theory represents 17.4 million voters
from all backgrounds and political persuasions  (or none)...

 

Edited by bee

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bee

 

link

A table of the by-election results

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itsnotoutthere
Posted (edited)

"Labour politician Lisa Forbes narrowly won the Peterborough by-election as she beat the Brexit Party’s candidate Mike Greene by 683 votes".

683....that's about the average attendance for my local village football team.

:D

Edited by itsnotoutthere

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bee

 

 

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itsnotoutthere
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, bee said:

 

link

A table of the by-election results

Funny.....I thought everybody for remain was voting Lib Dumb.......apparently not so many remainers out there after all then.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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RoofGardener

Like @bee, I'm disappointed that the Brexit Party didn't win outright. Nontheless, it was a bravura performance; to lose by only 700 votes.

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Setton
19 minutes ago, bee said:

... onto a new party that in theory represents 17.4 million voters from all backgrounds and political persuasions  (or none)...

Apparently not 17.4 million anymore. In the referendum over 60% backed leave. Yesterday, less than 30% voted BP. So either BP doesn't represent leave voters or leave voters have changed their minds. 

14 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

"Labour politician Lisa Forbes narrowly won the Peterborough by-election as she beat the Brexit Party’s candidate Mike Greene by 683 votes".

683....that's about the average attendance for my local village football team.

:D

It's also what Labour won by in 2017. This is a marginal seat. That doesn't show an especially strong support for BP,  just Conservative voters switching to them.

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itsnotoutthere
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Like @bee, I'm disappointed that the Brexit Party didn't win outright. Nontheless, it was a bravura performance; to lose by only 700 votes.

Yes, and if you use the same logic as was used by the remainers after the EU elections, add all the pro-leave parties votes together you get = 10,201

and add together all the pro-remain parties together, you get = 5194. .......Not looking good for remainers.

But of course that is using remainer logic.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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itsnotoutthere
3 minutes ago, Setton said:

Apparently not 17.4 million anymore. In the referendum over 60% backed leave. Yesterday, less than 30% voted BP. So either BP doesn't represent leave voters or leave voters have changed their minds. 

It's also what Labour won by in 2017. This is a marginal seat. That doesn't show an especially strong support for BP,  just Conservative voters switching to them.

Oh dear the knots we tie ourselves in. ;)

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RoofGardener
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Setton said:

Apparently not 17.4 million anymore. In the referendum over 60% backed leave. Yesterday, less than 30% voted BP. So either BP doesn't represent leave voters or leave voters have changed their minds. 

It's also what Labour won by in 2017. This is a marginal seat. That doesn't show an especially strong support for BP,  just Conservative voters switching to them.

Hmmm.... well, the only party openly advocating "remain" is the Liberal Democrats. They increased their vote share by almost 9%, but that hardly indicates a massive  surge in belief in 'remain' amongst the good burghers of Peterborough. Seeing as both the Conservatives and Labour "sort of" back leave, but also back remain, then it is a moot point as to what the overall "leave vs remain" mood is in Peterborough. However, the fact that the ONLY party that directly favours 'leave' got almost 30% of the vote - and came within a whisker of winning - is a strong indication. 

Edited by RoofGardener
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bee
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Setton said:

Apparently not 17.4 million anymore. In the referendum over 60% backed leave. Yesterday, less than 30% voted BP. So either BP doesn't represent leave voters or leave voters have changed their minds. 

 

obviously other factors come into play when it comes to a By Election or a General Election....

I would like Leave voters to stay focused and not wander back into the Lab / Con trap... 
and understand that after Leaving the EU is dealt with they can go back if they want to...
BUT.... there are bigger issues to sort out at the moment...

tinkering around with domestic issues should come second to deciding the direction
we are going in as a country...

Do we want to be a Sovereign Nation  OR  a Region in the EU Federation.... ?
 

 

Edited by bee
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Setton
33 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm.... well, the only party openly advocating "remain" is the Liberal Democrats. They increased their vote share by almost 9%, but that hardly indicates a massive  surge in belief in 'remain' amongst the good burghers of Peterborough. Seeing as both the Conservatives and Labour "sort of" back leave, but also back remain, then it is a moot point as to what the overall "leave vs remain" mood is in Peterborough. However, the fact that the ONLY party that directly favours 'leave' got almost 30% of the vote - and came within a whisker of winning - is a strong indication. 

And lost. 

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