Study Finds Trump Tax Cuts Didnt Help

[+Hammerclaw]

1 minute ago, Gromdor said:

I never understood why we are using the GDP percentage as a measure of success.  China is all in the 6% range: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

We probably should measure our success in how our middle class or poor do from year to year. 

Well, which country would you rather be middleclass or poor in? If it's a concentration camp at the border, it's the only one in history people climb walls to get into.

[Gromdor]

3 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

Well, which country would you rather be middleclass or poor in? If it's a concentration camp at the border, it's the only one in history people climb walls to get into.

That's not true.  There have been many walls in history where people climbed them to get in.

Having lived in overseas a good chunk of my life I would say middle class in most countries is fine.  I wouldn't want to be poor in the US for sure.

 If I had to pick, I would pick some where that at least had health insurance or socialized medicine for the least among them.

China is already projected to overtake us in a decade or so.  We already can't use GDP percentage to claim superiority over them and that's the metric the current politicians seem to use to compare themselves to each other.  It will be worse when we lose the overall GDP title too.

 

[+Hammerclaw]

15 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

That's not true.  There have been many walls in history where people climbed them to get in.

Having lived in overseas a good chunk of my life I would say middle class in most countries is fine.  I wouldn't want to be poor in the US for sure.

 If I had to pick, I would pick some where that at least had health insurance or socialized medicine for the least among them.

China is already projected to overtake us in a decade or so.  We already can't use GDP percentage to claim superiority over them and that's the metric the current politicians seem to use to compare themselves to each other.  It will be worse when we lose the overall GDP title too.

 

China's economy will tank once it loses it's financial pipelines to the West. It's got to where it is because we've pumped huge amounts of capital into it. Seem pretty socialized already to me, at least in my State; when my wages were below the poverty line my affordable healthcare premium was 0. Any rosy projection of China's economy is based on the status quo. Trump's tariffs pretty much trash those estimations. 

[+DieChecker]

4 hours ago, Gromdor said:

Weird, I remember some recession thing happening and Obama doing all kinds of things that mucked about our economy.  Stuff to prevent it from happening again too.   I must be going senile.

 

 

Yeah. He gave me 8000 dollars when I bought my first house. I milked that 8000 for months and months... Good times...

[+DieChecker]

12 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

China's economy will tank once it loses it's financial pipelines to the West. It's got to where it is because we've pumped huge amounts of capital into it. Seem pretty socialized already to me, at least in my State; when my wages were below the poverty line my affordable healthcare premium was 0. Any rosy projection of China's economy is based on the status quo. Trump's tariffs pretty much trash those estimations. 

I read that China is already showing the signs that Japan did right before their "Lost Decades". Remember when Japan was going to buy everything in America? Back in the 1980s. When corporations and buildings, golf courses and malls, were all being bought up like a monopoly board by the Japanese. Remember the first Back to the Future movie, and Bladerunner, where the Japanese were going to completely take over? Didn't happen. They faded back and sold off what they had bought and simply tried to maintain. 

That's what China's future is probably going to be.

[+DieChecker]

1 hour ago, Hammerclaw said:

Well, which country would you rather be middleclass or poor in? If it's a concentration camp at the border, it's the only one in history people climb walls to get into.

Agree. Even with the media saying how Latin-phobic Trump and ICE and the Border Patrol are, we still are seeing Record numbers of people coming and trying to get here. Because being here in a camp is much better then what they are running from. And then having the chance to live here freely is pure gold.

[+Hammerclaw]

8 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

I read that China is already showing the signs that Japan did right before their "Lost Decades". Remember when Japan was going to buy everything in America? Back in the 1980s. When corporations and buildings, golf courses and malls, were all being bought up like a monopoly board by the Japanese. Remember the first Back to the Future movie, and Bladerunner, where the Japanese were going to completely take over? Didn't happen. They faded back and sold off what they had bought and simply tried to maintain. 

That's what China's future is probably going to be.

They've pumped so much of their newfound wealth into their military/industrial complex creating weapons they dare not use. Even a minor skirmish with a Western Power would create a get-out-of-China surge among industries either forced out or fleeing to more benign Third World countries for cheap labor. Their economy would crash. The West would do just fine without China, on the other hand--and they know it.

Edited June 29, 2019 by Hammerclaw

[+Hammerclaw]

7 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Agree. Even with the media saying how Latin-phobic Trump and ICE and the Border Patrol are, we still are seeing Record numbers of people coming and trying to get here. Because being here in a camp is much better then what they are running from. And then having the chance to live here freely is pure gold.

Around a hundred and twenty-five thousand were intercepted trying to enter, just last month.

[Kismit]

4 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Hammerclaw, where did that come from?   Never has an administration done anything that wouldn't bear fruit inside a year or two.  That is what the experts know. Five to ten years out, your successor gets all the credit.  What was this tax cut supposed to do for the large corporations?  Give them more working capital to invest in new business?  So far they have done a lot of stock buybacks.  Has it been a boon to the economy which was already in good shape? Or has it just removed tax revenues?

In less than 10 years, in 2027 I believe the middle class tax cut is expected to end, the corporate one is permanent.  If our deficit is still growing, the middle class tax cut may not be renewed.  Also, Medicare, Social Security, and Medicare may need to be trimmed to pass a budget. 

People that work for a living in the middle class - and we are not talking about freeloaders here- will see their standard of living go down.

My prediction is now 6 years for the American economy to be in worse shape from these tax cuts. Trickledown economics has raised the wealth of the 1% while increasing the gap between them and the so called middle class since the 80’s.

And you are right economic change takes a few years to e visible. That is why short term governments do what they do. They don’t care about the effects, they only care about how they look now, if they can dump the opposition in it, then even better.

[Agent0range]

9 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

You probably are if you don't remember how anemic the GDP was during the Obama years. 

https://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-charts-final/3.html

I mean, Trump supporters tout the GDP and stock market when there is nothing to brag about.  The GDP growth BY YEAR (I mostly see cherry picked quarters) under Trump is 2.2 and 2.9.  Obama reached those numbers without a giant tax cut to corporations and billionaires.  Now, when it comes to the stock market, under the first 2 years of Obama, the annual yield was 20% for the Dow.  Two years of Trump, and the annual yield is 10%.  Those numbers are even more skewed towards Obama with the S&P and Nasdaq.  Into year three, the stock market has been stagnant, hovering between 25-26 thousand.  

[Gromdor]

28 minutes ago, Agent0range said:

I mean, Trump supporters tout the GDP and stock market when there is nothing to brag about.  The GDP growth BY YEAR (I mostly see cherry picked quarters) under Trump is 2.2 and 2.9.  Obama reached those numbers without a giant tax cut to corporations and billionaires.  Now, when it comes to the stock market, under the first 2 years of Obama, the annual yield was 20% for the Dow.  Two years of Trump, and the annual yield is 10%.  Those numbers are even more skewed towards Obama with the S&P and Nasdaq.  Into year three, the stock market has been stagnant, hovering between 25-26 thousand.  

I think Hammerclaw's point was that if something good happens with the economy now- it was because of Trump.  If something good happened back then it was because of the "free market"- and not because of Obama.  It's unreasonable to hold people of different parties to the same standard.

[+Hammerclaw]

1 hour ago, Agent0range said:

I mean, Trump supporters tout the GDP and stock market when there is nothing to brag about.  The GDP growth BY YEAR (I mostly see cherry picked quarters) under Trump is 2.2 and 2.9.  Obama reached those numbers without a giant tax cut to corporations and billionaires.  Now, when it comes to the stock market, under the first 2 years of Obama, the annual yield was 20% for the Dow.  Two years of Trump, and the annual yield is 10%.  Those numbers are even more skewed towards Obama with the S&P and Nasdaq.  Into year three, the stock market has been stagnant, hovering between 25-26 thousand.  

The economy is booming, unemployment at three and a half percent and the GDP, per capita among the top five in the world. There's nothing comparable in the Obama years. More fake news from a fake veteran.

 

[Agent0range]

30 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

The economy is booming, unemployment at three and a half percent and the GDP, per capita among the top five in the world. There's nothing comparable in the Obama years. More fake news from a fake veteran.

 

How very patriotic of you.  I will be more than happy to skype with you, dd-214 and medals in hand.  I will show you my ID, and then you can Google my real name.  Afterwards, I will expect an apology.  Thanks.

[+Hammerclaw]

31 minutes ago, Agent0range said:

How very patriotic of you.  I will be more than happy to skype with you, dd-214 and medals in hand.  I will show you my ID, and then you can Google my real name.  Afterwards, I will expect an apology.  Thanks.

I'll introduce you to my cousins who served in the 82nd and the 101st. If you can convince them, you'll get that apology. Fair enough?

[ExpandMyMind]

8 hours ago, Kismit said:

My prediction is now 6 years for the American economy to be in worse shape from these tax cuts. Trickledown economics has raised the wealth of the 1% while increasing the gap between them and the so called middle class since the 80’s.

 

The tariffs will have a massive impact as well. People on the left seem to think that Trump doesn't know what he's doing but I don't buy that. The cost of the tariffs trickles down to the consumer, so in effect it's a massive - 25% in some cases - tax on the working and middle class. It's a hidden tax on the average citizen. So he's not only lowered taxes for the rich, he's also raised taxes on the rest of the population without them even realising he's doing so. Both of which will work to inflate the economy, with whoever's left holding the buck in the next 5-10 years being shouldered with the economical mess.

[+DieChecker]

6 hours ago, Agent0range said:

, under the first 2 years of Obama, the annual yield was 20% for the Dow.  Two years of Trump, and the annual yield is 10%.  

Well Obama did inherit the stock market after the biggest drop in a half century.... a certain about of extra growth (back toward the old "normal") was to be expected.

[+DieChecker]

3 hours ago, ExpandMyMind said:

The tariffs will have a massive impact as well. People on the left seem to think that Trump doesn't know what he's doing but I don't buy that. The cost of the tariffs trickles down to the consumer, so in effect it's a massive - 25% in some cases - tax on the working and middle class. It's a hidden tax on the average citizen. So he's not only lowered taxes for the rich, he's also raised taxes on the rest of the population without them even realising he's doing so. Both of which will work to inflate the economy, with whoever's left holding the buck in the next 5-10 years being shouldered with the economical mess.

So now Trickle Down economics is real?

[ExpandMyMind]

1 minute ago, DieChecker said:

So now Trickle Down economics is real?

It's not really 'trickle down' in the way that term is usually incorrectly used, since the cost is directly shouldered by the consumer. I was using the word more generally.

The fact that trickle down economics from tax breaks doesn't actually happen is demonstrably the case.

Quote

Specifically, if the income share of the top 20 percent (the rich) increases, then GDP growth actually declines over the medium term, suggesting that the benefits do not trickle down. In contrast, an increase in the income share of the bottom 20 percent (the poor) is associated with higher GDP growth. The poor and the middle class matter the most for growth via a number of interrelated economic, social, and political channels.

The IMF

[ExpandMyMind]

13 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Well Obama did inherit the stock market after the biggest drop in a half century.... a certain about of extra growth (back toward the old "normal") was to be expected.

This is true and often forgotten by the left. What is often ignored by the right is the fact that it didn't stop growing at the same rate for his entire presidency. If you look at his 8 years and Trump's presidency, the line on the graph follows the same course. 

[Agent0range]

9 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

I'll introduce you to my cousins who served in the 82nd and the 101st. If you can convince them, you'll get that apology. Fair enough?

Is the 82nd and 101st supposed to mean something special?  Oooohh...airborne divisions that haven't conducted a combat jump since WWII!  There ain't nothing special about those divisions.  They need to convince me that they were something special.  I don't need to convince anyone.

[Agent0range]

5 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Well Obama did inherit the stock market after the biggest drop in a half century.... a certain about of extra growth (back toward the old "normal") was to be expected.

Turning an economy around around is nothing special, and keeping up with the norm of the previous seven years is special...got it.

[+Hammerclaw]

2 hours ago, Agent0range said:

Is the 82nd and 101st supposed to mean something special?  Oooohh...airborne divisions that haven't conducted a combat jump since WWII!  There ain't nothing special about those divisions.  They need to convince me that they were something special.  I don't need to convince anyone.

I didn't figure you'd want to face real veterans who served in Afghanistan. You could have used my own flesh and blood to rub my nose in being wrong.  Obviously, I'm not wrong. 

[Agent0range]

8 hours ago, Hammerclaw said:

I didn't figure you'd want to face real veterans who served in Afghanistan. You could have used my own flesh and blood to rub my nose in being wrong.  Obviously, I'm not wrong. 

I served in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Like I said, you can skype me anytime you want.

[Farmer77]

On 6/30/2019 at 1:34 AM, Hammerclaw said:

I didn't figure you'd want to face real veterans who served in Afghanistan. You could have used my own flesh and blood to rub my nose in being wrong.  Obviously, I'm not wrong. 

I dont believe you know any real veterans. 

[+DieChecker]

On 6/29/2019 at 6:34 PM, Agent0range said:

Turning an economy around around is nothing special, and keeping up with the norm of the previous seven years is special...got it.

I didn't say it wasn't special. But looking back at Reagan and other near term recessions, they were much shorter and bounced back much faster. That's what I was saying.