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South Alabam

Who will the Democratic nominee be?

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Farmer77
1 hour ago, F3SS said:

Trump's gonna have 4 years of actually being president, a record to bloviate,

Also a record to attack. With the tax cuts bombing, stagnant wages and our nation's deficit soaring higher than ever he's even at risk of losing the economy argument at this point.

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F3SS
4 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

Also a record to attack. With the tax cuts bombing, stagnant wages and our nation's deficit soaring higher than ever he's even at risk of losing the economy argument at this point.

Yea we keep hearing that.

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Farmer77
1 minute ago, F3SS said:

Yea we keep hearing that.

I dont think hes there just yet but without some changes  "rich man gave his rich friends tax cuts  " is gonna be a pretty easy sell to the voters, especially if the GOP is dumb enough to try and talk about fiscal conservancy in an effort to attack the dems social programs.

 

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Tatetopa
2 hours ago, F3SS said:

When it becomes a head on with Trump vs the final candidate they better have more than have more than racism and collusion to throw around. If it's Bernie I wonder if he'll be sick and tired of talking about the damn collusion? Trump's gonna have 4 years of actually being president, a record to bloviate, twice the confidence if that's even possible for an ego that size, momentum that hasn't let up since he's been in, zingers and nicknames galore who knows the leverage he may hold with all these deep state investigations if some big names go down.

There will be plenty of other stuff to talk about. Really no need to talk about racism or collusion.  Democratic candidates got the jump  they are already starting to target a message to blacks.  

They can focus on the economy.  Farmers are struggling in the Midwest because of the one-two punch of tariffs and weather.  Even farmers are starting to talk about the worst season in their lifetimes due to weather and climate change.  Climate Change may not be so easy to blame on a Chinese Hoax. There are a bunch of electoral votes in those states that President Trump won last time.  It might not be so easy this time.

They can talk about the tax cut and the fact that corporations have put the money into buying back shares and not creating jobs. They can talk about the fact that the trade deficit is still rising.  They can talk about the fact that the  national debt is also rising at a good clip.  They can talk about the fact that the corporate tax cut was permanent and the middle class tax cut expires in 2027.   

They can talk about drug prices and insurance.  The plan that was supposed to be better and cheaper than Obamacare never materialized. They can talk about the opiod crisis which has not been solved.

They can talk about the fact that the Wall still is not built and the immigration problem is not solved; not stopping people at the border, and not giving enough permits for agricultural and manufacturing workers that the economy needs.

There are 5.5 million Puerto Rican citizens scattered throughout the US and they are US citizens and can vote if they live in the continental US. Fair or not, they might not be too happy about disaster relief. 

Or any one of them can say, "Hey World are you listening ?  If you have any dirt on the Trump or Kushner families activities in your countries, , the American Press would be grateful to get it."  That is dirty, but they can use the excuse that  President Trump already said he would do it.

Of course, if he is smart about it, he can neutralize all of that .  I guess we will see.

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F3SS
6 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

There will be plenty of other stuff to talk about. Really no need to talk about racism or collusion.  Democratic candidates got the jump  they are already starting to target a message to blacks.  

They can focus on the economy.  Farmers are struggling in the Midwest because of the one-two punch of tariffs and weather.  Even farmers are starting to talk about the worst season in their lifetimes due to weather and climate change.  Climate Change may not be so easy to blame on a Chinese Hoax. There are a bunch of electoral votes in those states that President Trump won last time.  It might not be so easy this time.

They can talk about the tax cut and the fact that corporations have put the money into buying back shares and not creating jobs. They can talk about the fact that the trade deficit is still rising.  They can talk about the fact that the  national debt is also rising at a good clip.  They can talk about the fact that the corporate tax cut was permanent and the middle class tax cut expires in 2027.   

They can talk about drug prices and insurance.  The plan that was supposed to be better and cheaper than Obamacare never materialized. They can talk about the opiod crisis which has not been solved.

They can talk about the fact that the Wall still is not built and the immigration problem is not solved; not stopping people at the border, and not giving enough permits for agricultural and manufacturing workers that the economy needs.

There are 5.5 million Puerto Rican citizens scattered throughout the US and they are US citizens and can vote if they live in the continental US. Fair or not, they might not be too happy about disaster relief. 

Or any one of them can say, "Hey World are you listening ?  If you have any dirt on the Trump or Kushner families activities in your countries, , the American Press would be grateful to get it."  That is dirty, but they can use the excuse that  President Trump already said he would do it.

Of course, if he is smart about it, he can neutralize all of that .  I guess we will see.

Of course they don't need to talk about it but they will. It's a compulsive tick that they cannot help themselves from, almost like tuerretes (*sp). They've never done anything but pander to blacks (or enslave them). 60 years of it and no improvement. They're a tough sell for the Republicans for sure but I've never seen so many blacks come out as openly Republican as I have this last few years. Sadly, they're disparaged and labeled to the 10th degree.

If the market continues it's bull run the economy will be a moot point for the Dems. I don't think there are are enough farmers to make an election difference and unless there's some real doom and gloom to display I doubt much of rural America is going to vote differently this time around.

Climate change is a dead issue.espevially since the only solution is higher taxes. It won't pull any more or any less votes than it did before. 

I'll move over on the tax issue. Every time I think I understand taxes I find out I only understand half of it. However, the Dems will ultimately run on higher taxes for everything and that's not a selling point.

The medical issue hasn't materialized yet but there's still a year and perhaps there's a plan being saved as a campaign agenda. In the meantime, the ACA killed insurance for me.

The wall, well some of it has and there'll be plenty of back and forth about who's to blame for what's not done. I feel like there's not a lot of voters who will withhold their vote for Trump based on a lack of immigration success because seriously, what's the alternative? Mass migration, welfare and sanctuary cities?

I doubt Puerto Ricans will play a major role. Trump will argue success til he's blue in the face and the Dems will look disingenuous with whatever talking points they use.

 

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Tatetopa
4 hours ago, F3SS said:

Climate change is a dead issue.espevially since the only solution is higher taxes. It won't pull any more or any less votes than it did before. 

Flooding is what is pounding the Midwest.   We may not solve the climate, but we can repair and upgrade levees, spillways, and other water control projects in an infrastructure program.  It is not how many votes, but their strategic location and state electors.   If not, California and New York would dominate most elections.  That was a smart way to set it up to prevent that.  A lot of conservative voters in the Midwest could never stomach Warren or Harris etc, but they might live with Biden if he promises to do something for them.

As for the economy and the stock market, it may not be going gangbusters for another year and a half, we will have to see.  If the tariff issues don't get resolved in the next few months,  lots of investors will start to get nervous.

There are a number of people who often voted Democratic in their lives who could not bring themselves to vote for Clinton.  Some threw their vote away on the third party candidate and some voted for Trump because "At least he is not Hillary"

In 2020, that may be reversed.  There were a number of never-Trumpers already among the Republicans.   Joe Biden is pretty close to a moderate Republican.  Many Republicans will be able to tolerate him, hold their noses and vote Democratic and say, "At least he is not Trump."

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Manwon Lender
54 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

 

I suspect that Billery Clinton will try again, however, I hope she doesn't get it. In my opinion she is not suited to be president anymore than Trump is. 

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Farmer77
6 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

 

I suspect that Billery Clinton will try again, however, I hope she doesn't get it. In my opinion she is not suited to be president anymore than Trump is. 

 The dems wont let her :lol:

I agree and while I am constantly horrified by whats happening under Trump ill still say we dodged a bullet by her not becoming POTUS

 

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Big Jim

After reading comments on here about polls and seeing new results every day predicting Dem candidates are leading, it occurs to me that somebody should conduct a poll about who is polled and who answers polls.  The results might read something like this : In the latest Anonymous Poll, with 85% of calls going to registered Democrats and with 90% of them agreeing with "all of the above", it is predicted that Trump will lose by a landslide.  In a related poll it was shown that 75% of pollsters hang up if a Republican answers and 99% of Republicans refuse to answer when called.

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OverSword
On ‎6‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 10:29 PM, Farmer77 said:

I dont think hes there just yet but without some changes  "rich man gave his rich friends tax cuts  " is gonna be a pretty easy sell to the voters, especially if the GOP is dumb enough to try and talk about fiscal conservancy in an effort to attack the dems social programs.

 

 I think that most people are either going to vote left or right regardless of any kind of debate or fact and we're pretty much split 50/50

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aztek

Image result for mark twain quotes on elections

 

Image result for mark twain quotes on elections

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Farmer77
9 hours ago, OverSword said:

 I think that most people are either going to vote left or right regardless of any kind of debate or fact and we're pretty much split 50/50

IDK I think its closer to 60/40 and I think if the actual facts can break through and reach that 40% during the campaign season then it will probably be closer to 70/30.

An example of why I say that:

 

Quote

But of particular interest was a quote from one Republican local voter, whom NBC News spoke to after the event.

Cathy Garnaat, a Republican who supported Amash and the president said she was upset about Amash’s position but wanted to hear his reasoning. She said that she will definitely support Trump in 2020 but that Tuesday night was the first time she had heard that the Mueller report didn’t completely exonerate the president.

“I was surprised to hear there was anything negative in the Mueller report at all about President Trump. I hadn’t heard that before,” she said. “I’ve mainly listened to conservative news and I hadn’t heard anything negative about that report and President Trump has been exonerated.”

Trump voter surprised to learn about key Mueller report revelations

 

Sure she said the new info didnt change her mind as to who she would vote for in the moment but exposure to real facts during the campaign could make folks like her start asking questions. I was serious earlier in the thread when I said the results of the election will largely be dependent upon the efficacy of our education system. If people just read comforting headlines then Trumps gonna win, if they reach beyond the headlines for the facts which I believe a large percentage of actual conservatives do care about, then Trump doesnt have much to stand on.

 

 

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DieChecker
On 6/16/2019 at 11:56 AM, Tatetopa said:

In 2020, that may be reversed.  There were a number of never-Trumpers already among the Republicans.   Joe Biden is pretty close to a moderate Republican.  Many Republicans will be able to tolerate him, hold their noses and vote Democratic and say, "At least he is not Trump."

I think that is a real possibility, but more then that it is the independents that need to be convinced. If the Ds get every democrat, and the Rs get every republican, it will be who gets more independents who will win. Biden, IMHO, is one of the few who could do that. 

Edited by DieChecker
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DieChecker
On 6/17/2019 at 9:06 PM, Farmer77 said:

IDK I think its closer to 60/40 and I think if the actual facts can break through and reach that 40% during the campaign season then it will probably be closer to 70/30.

It depends on the independent voters. From what I remember most independent voters lean fiscally right, but socially left. 

But current D candidates going far left aren't going to get most of those voters.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states#Gallup

Quote

As of October 2017, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 24% identified as Republican, and 42% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 46% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 39% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[4]

So democrats do have an over 50% starting off. But, I really doubt 70/30. That is almost a leftist enough remark to say you are bias enough that your opinion can't be taken seriously.

Do you want us to take you seriously?

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DieChecker
On 6/16/2019 at 9:28 PM, Manwon Lender said:

I suspect that Billery Clinton will try again, however, I hope she doesn't get it. In my opinion she is not suited to be president anymore than Trump is. 

Trump is starting his campaign with some good old fashioned Clinton bashing. I bet she gets real mad and we see her on all the liberal news channels hobbling about and calling names.

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F3SS
2 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

It depends on the independent voters. From what I remember most independent voters lean fiscally right, but socially left. 

But current D candidates going far left aren't going to get most of those voters.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states#Gallup

So democrats do have an over 50% starting off. But, I really doubt 70/30. That is almost a leftist enough remark to say you are bias enough that your opinion can't be taken seriously.

Do you want us to take you seriously?

He's been answering that question for 2.5 years now with a resounding NO. :lol:

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Space Commander Travis
On 13/06/2019 at 12:12 PM, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm.. what do we know about this "Quinnipiac University" ?

I believe it's a sister establishment of Miskatonic University 

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Space Commander Travis
On 15/06/2019 at 7:33 AM, Farmer77 said:

Pssst! I was actually rooting for Trump to beat Hillary ....dont tell anyone though....I mean i did through dozens if not hundreds of posts at the time , but , i have a reputation to keep so dont tell anyone !

On a more serious level though I think a huge part of the problem with Hillary (baggage aside) was that she wasnt liberal enough. Yeah yeah shes the "boogieman" and you hate her because she is slightly to the left of foxnews but in reality, when talking actual policy,  she was republican lite. When it came down to her and Trump there were no real major differences in policy direction that would affect the average non right wing citizen. I think the crop of candidates this cycle will add a level of excitement that hillary and her policies simply couldnt bring.

Booker and his tax credits for renters idea being a good example and we're just getting started!

well of course she was, if you want a real example of a fascist, then there's one right there. I don't think any at all really believes that she was in any remote way left wing. 

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Space Commander Travis

That's why, perhaps much as yourself secretly agree, the sole reason I'd much rather have seen The Mighty Donald in the big leather swivel chair was because he was much less fanatically right-wing than Hillary  (well, two reasons; 2, I was confident that he'd be an endless source of entertainment, and you try telling me I was wrong there), 

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Tatetopa
1 hour ago, DieChecker said:

Trump is starting his campaign with some good old fashioned Clinton bashing. I bet she gets real mad and we see her on all the liberal news channels hobbling about and calling names.

She doesn't have to get mad.  But appearing on all of the liberal channels and getting taken up by FOX news to mock  is about the best and only service she could do for the Democratic party.  She is not a candidate, she doesn't have to appear presidential. She can hit President Trump accusation for accusation, insult for insult, nickname for nickname.  She can claim he should be impeached, is covering up something, or should be in jail.

It doesn't matter that Republicans don't believe her.  It doesn't matter that Democrats don't believe her.  It doesn't even matter that Donald Trump doesn't believe her, he will get mad, maybe furious .  His ego will be insulted, his counter punch reaction will be unstoppable.  He will waste time and effort on Hillary even if his aids tell him to quit.  He will be obsessed on Twitter and on interviews until he destroys her.

He could waste a month or two snapping at Hillary.  All the while the Democratic candidates can campaign on their own platforms and deliver non-personal policy alternatives without being focused on defense.   They could even claim both Hillary and Donald are being childish and un-presidential while they are talking about real issues that affect the American people..

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ian hacktorp

Joe Biden is toast.  Burnt toast.

 

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South Alabam
On 6/19/2019 at 2:44 PM, DieChecker said:

I think that is a real possibility, but more then that it is the independents that need to be convinced. If the Ds get every democrat, and the Rs get every republican, it will be who gets more independents who will win. Biden, IMHO, is one of the few who could do that. 

My brother in law told me yesterday, that his brother who is 66 has never voted, but will next election for Trump, because he was the only politician who has kept, or tried to keep his campaign promises. So there is still a whole slew of possibilities of what could happen next election.

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South Alabam
18 minutes ago, hacktorp said:

Joe Biden is toast.  Burnt toast.

Yep, D.C is still dripping with Obama era corruption that only fools turn a blind eye to, and blame Trump for.

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