Its a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

[Doug1029]

Some time ago I asked tmcom what it was that Al gore actually predicted.  Instead of a list of predictions, he posted a bunch of rants that didn't list any predictsions.  So here is a list of those predictions from 2006 and the situation with each as of 2016:  Remember that this is ten years and we need 30 years of data to actually check the results.

 

1.  (Gore)  The warming ocean could fuel more frequent and more intense Atlantic hurricanes.

2016:  Hurricane frequnecy has dropped slightly.  Intensities haven't changed much.

 

.2.  (Gore)  Freshwater flowing into the Atlantic could shut down the ocean coveyor belt that shuttles warm water toward western Europe.

2016:  the ocean conveyor is, in fact, slowing, but researchers now say that a complete shutdown will not likely happen.

 

3.  (Gore)  Climate change exacerbated droughts that contributed to regional conflicts, such as the war in Darfur.

2016:  Drought conditions, worsened by climate change helped spark the Syrrian civil war.  Since 1970, droughts have become longer and more severe.  The trend is expected to continue.  Note however, that the southern Great Plains are getting warmer and more humid with droughts getting shorter, less frequent and less intense.  The trends are not universal.

 

4.  (Gore)  The Arctic could see its first ice-free summers in the next 50 to 70 years.

2016:  We are on track to meet this by about 2052 (46 years).

 

5.  (Gore)  Rising temperatures are warming the Arctic and melting the West Antarctic ice cap.

2016:  The West Antarctic ice cap is in danger of crossing a point of no return.  The collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf reduced its size by an area equivalent to the area of Rhode Island.  Collapse of the West Antarctic ice cap would raise global sea levels by about three meters.  

 

6.  (Gore) Melting ice and expanding sea water are raising global sea levels.

2016:  Global sea level continues to rise at about 3 millimeters per year.  It has risen as much as ten times that amount in the past.  Sea levels are expected to rise by one meter by 2100.

 

7. (Gore)  Warming temperatures will cause more frequent and mor deadly heat waves.

2016:  Humidity may make future heat waves deadlier; cold snaps are declining.

 

8. (Gore)  The long-term effects of climate change deserve immediate action.

2016:  Curbing the use of fossil fuels will take many years.  There are other, more immediate benefits to climate action, like saving up to 295,000 lives a year in the US lost to air pollution (mostly from coal).  The Paris Accords (2015) were the first serious effort by governments to actually do something about climate change.

 

In most of his predictions, Gore was close.  In one or two, he missed the mark.  In one, he was too conservative.

Most of this has appeared in Science News.  For more information, see:  https://www.sciencenews.org/article/changing-climate-10-years-after-inconvenient-truth

Doug

[tmcom]

1 hour ago, Doug1o29 said:

Some time ago I asked tmcom what it was that Al gore actually predicted.  Instead of a list of predictions, he posted a bunch of rants that didn't list any predictsions.  So here is a list of those predictions from 2006 and the situation with each as of 2016:  Remember that this is ten years and we need 30 years of data to actually check the results.

 

1.  (Gore)  The warming ocean could fuel more frequent and more intense Atlantic hurricanes.

2016:  Hurricane frequnecy has dropped slightly.  Intensities haven't changed much.

 

.2.  (Gore)  Freshwater flowing into the Atlantic could shut down the ocean coveyor belt that shuttles warm water toward western Europe.

2016:  the ocean conveyor is, in fact, slowing, but researchers now say that a complete shutdown will not likely happen.

 

3.  (Gore)  Climate change exacerbated droughts that contributed to regional conflicts, such as the war in Darfur.

2016:  Drought conditions, worsened by climate change helped spark the Syrrian civil war.  Since 1970, droughts have become longer and more severe.  The trend is expected to continue.  Note however, that the southern Great Plains are getting warmer and more humid with droughts getting shorter, less frequent and less intense.  The trends are not universal.

 

4.  (Gore)  The Arctic could see its first ice-free summers in the next 50 to 70 years.

2016:  We are on track to meet this by about 2052 (46 years).

 

5.  (Gore)  Rising temperatures are warming the Arctic and melting the West Antarctic ice cap.

2016:  The West Antarctic ice cap is in danger of crossing a point of no return.  The collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf reduced its size by an area equivalent to the area of Rhode Island.  Collapse of the West Antarctic ice cap would raise global sea levels by about three meters.  

 

6.  (Gore) Melting ice and expanding sea water are raising global sea levels.

2016:  Global sea level continues to rise at about 3 millimeters per year.  It has risen as much as ten times that amount in the past.  Sea levels are expected to rise by one meter by 2100.

 

7. (Gore)  Warming temperatures will cause more frequent and mor deadly heat waves.

2016:  Humidity may make future heat waves deadlier; cold snaps are declining.

 

8. (Gore)  The long-term effects of climate change deserve immediate action.

2016:  Curbing the use of fossil fuels will take many years.  There are other, more immediate benefits to climate action, like saving up to 295,000 lives a year in the US lost to air pollution (mostly from coal).  The Paris Accords (2015) were the first serious effort by governments to actually do something about climate change.

 

In most of his predictions, Gore was close.  In one or two, he missed the mark.  In one, he was too conservative.

Most of this has appeared in Science News.  For more information, see:  https://www.sciencenews.org/article/changing-climate-10-years-after-inconvenient-truth

Doug

I have watched An Inconvenient Truth and none of it came true!

The only one in the Doc, that got close was the world trade centre block flooding, due to a Cyclone, not the water level rising.

I know l am apparently raving again, that or l and others have come to the undeniable conclusion that fanatics cannot stand being wrong, or are impossible to reason with!

Edited July 22, 2019 by tmcom

[Doug1029]

1 hour ago, tmcom said:

I have watched An Inconvenient Truth and none of it came true!

The only one in the Doc, that got close was the world trade centre block flooding, due to a Cyclone, not the water level rising.

I know l am apparently raving again, that or l and others have come to the undeniable conclusion that fanatics cannot stand being wrong, or are impossible to reason with!

In all fairness, could you please post a list of Gore's predictions as I believe the one I put up is 9incomplete.

Doug

[Doug1029]

8 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

In all fairness, could you please post a list of Gore's predictions as I believe the one I put up is 9incomplete.

Doug

Here's a list from a denier website:  http://humansarefree.com/2018/01/al-gores-10-global-warming-predictions.html

Gore's Predictions:

1.  Rising Sea Levels.  The site calls this one inaccurate and misleading.

The mean annual rate globally is about 3 mm per year.  Larger numbers can occur at convergent plate boundaries, so there is a lot of misleading information out there from authors who didn't know this could be a problem.  A rise of 1 meter is predicted by 2100; we will need to see an acceleration of sea level rise if this is to happen.

 

2.  Increased tornadoes.  The site says this has been declining for decades.  They offer no sources.

Tornados are extremely difficult to count.  Over the last decade or so, tornado tracks have been moving north and east.  Alabama and Georgia are now getting numbers and sizes of tornados that were formerly seen only in Oklahoma and Kansas.  Between 1965 and 2005, the total number of storms (as determined from low-pressure readings) in eastern Oklahoma increased.  So I don't know about numbers, but the circumstances surrounding them ARE changing.

 

3.  New Ice Age in Europe - they've been spared - it never happened.

That's not what Gorew predicted.  He predicted a slow-down, possibly a halting of the global conveyor.  The Gulf Stream has slowed, but not stopped.  Scientists are now saying that it probably won't stop altogether.

 

4.  South Sahara drying up - completely untrue.

Ever hear of the Sahel?  At the time Gore made his forecast, the Sahel drought was mostly over, but there were still lingering effects.  The major effect was desertification:  this results from the removal of forage by domestic herds.  Without grass cover, the land becomes a desert.  It happened, even though it was caused by over-grazing that exacerbated a drought..

 

5.  Massive flooding in India and China - again didn't happen.

Didn't happen.  But precip in that area correlates with global temps after 1970.  The seasonality of the monsoons has shifted, onset being delayed by 15 days.

 

6.  Melting Arctic - false - 2015 represents the largest refreezing in years.

It's not about a single year.  It's about long-term trends.  We expect it to take about 80 years to free the Arctic Ocean of summer ice.  So one year it blows hot and the next cold and the next hot again.  So what?  The general trend in summer ice has been downward since about 1950 and in winter ice since 1970.

 

7.  Polar bear extinction - actually they are increasing.

Wrong on both counts.  Polar bears survived the Altithermal when the Arctic Ocean melted free of ice.  They will survive this one.  They are not in danger of extinction.  BUT:  their numbers have declined, not increased.

 

8.  Temperature increases Due to CO2 - no significant rising for over 18 years.

I love it when they give me numbers to play with.  In 2001 the global mean temp was +0.53 C above the baseline.  It rose to a high of +1.01 in 2016 and has since fallen back to +0.82.  This article doesn't know what they're talking about.  They're flat-out wrong.

 

9.  Katrina a Foreshadow of the Future - false - past 10 years, no F3 hurricanes, "lomgest drought ever."

The trouble with making short-term statements like this is that you get demolished in the long run.  Harvey, Irma, Maria, Ophelia.  All were Cat4 or Cat5.  And they're part of the average, too.

Besides, F3 means Fujita 3.  It's a tornado index, bot a hurricane index.

 

I wish deniers would quit trying to make things up - they do such a bad job of it.

Doug

 

[tmcom]

10 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

In all fairness, could you please post a list of Gore's predictions as I believe the one I put up is 9incomplete.

Doug

Ok, l have taken the highlights from his trailer.

• Pattegonia, (Antarctica) ice sheets are melting, nope.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/15/nasa-glaciologist-jay-zwally-puts-the-hammer-down-antarctica-is-gaining-ice/

• Mount Kilimanjaro losing ice or snow, nope.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/07/kilimanjaro-glaciers-just-wont-die-nowhere-near-extinction/

• Florida's coastline disappearing, nope, (previous video made that pretty obvious).

• World Trade Centre permanently flooded, (his words), nope.

• All the other countries cited, being flooded, or permanently seeing an obvious rise in sea levels, nope.

 

Others have already shown that cyclones are not becoming stronger of more frequent, and that humans are not the key cause, so l am not going to dredge that up again.

 

Have a nice day!

[Doug1029]

8 hours ago, tmcom said:

Ok, l have taken the highlights from his trailer.

• Pattegonia, (Antarctica) ice sheets are melting, nope.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/15/nasa-glaciologist-jay-zwally-puts-the-hammer-down-antarctica-is-gaining-ice/

• Mount Kilimanjaro losing ice or snow, nope.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/07/kilimanjaro-glaciers-just-wont-die-nowhere-near-extinction/

• Florida's coastline disappearing, nope, (previous video made that pretty obvious).

• World Trade Centre permanently flooded, (his words), nope.

• All the other countries cited, being flooded, or permanently seeing an obvious rise in sea levels, nope.

 

Others have already shown that cyclones are not becoming stronger of more frequent, and that humans are not the key cause, so l am not going to dredge that up again.

 

Have a nice day!

I have never seen "An Inconvenient Truth."  This is not Gore's presentation, but a clip, featuring only two forecasts:

1.  We are causing global warming.

2.  There will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro within ten years.

The rest are some irrelevant ravings about things other than Gore.

 

The link between human activities and global warming is well-established.  If you want to review it, we can do so later.  But right now, lets look at Kilimanjaro.

Kilimanjaro's glaciers continue to shrink and this year are at their lowest-ever, BUT they still exist.  Gore missed the target with his ten-year forecast.  Otherwise, he appears to be correct:  Kilimanjaro's glaciers are on their way to extinction.

There's another BUT:  the major source of ice loss appears to be sublimimation (ice passing directly to vapor), not melting.  The cause seems to be drier air.  This has been going on since somewhere around 1910.  It thus leaves in doubt whether the cause really is climate change.  That doesn't mean the climate isn't changing, just that we can't say that Kilimanjaro's ice loss is due to climate change, based on the evidence.

Did Gore make some unwarranted assumptions with this?  The popular press at the time was full of articles blaming Kilimanjaro's ice loss on climate change.  The scientific literature had no opinion.  So, yes.  It appears Gore bought into the popular press without checking his "facts."

Doug

[Essan]

Why do those who refute the science still keep on about an old forgotten documentary made by a politician?   Well, obviously, there's one possible reason  

Incidentally, this week is the 40th anniversary of the Charney Report

https://theconversation.com/40-years-ago-scientists-predicted-climate-change-and-hey-they-were-right-120502

[tmcom]

6 minutes ago, Essan said:

Why do those who refute the science still keep on about an old forgotten documentary made by a politician?   Well, obviously, there's one possible reason  

Incidentally, this week is the 40th anniversary of the Charney Report

https://theconversation.com/40-years-ago-scientists-predicted-climate-change-and-hey-they-were-right-120502

And why do believers dismiss Gores, failure, since it is backed up by 900+ peer reviewed papers, all on his side, and all wrong.

And 2018 Annual GWPF Lecture - Prof Richard Lindzen - Global Warming For The Two Cultures video l previously posted, for the same reason.

 

You might convince each other, but that is about it.

[Essan]

31 minutes ago, tmcom said:

And why do believers dismiss Gores, failure, since it is backed up by 900+ peer reviewed papers, all on his side, and all wrong.

And 2018 Annual GWPF Lecture - Prof Richard Lindzen - Global Warming For The Two Cultures video l previously posted, for the same reason.

 

You might convince each other, but that is about it.

Can't speak for anyone else, but I couldn't even watch Gore's film when it came out because of the mistakes and mis-assumptions in it.    It certainly wasn't all backed up by papers     Though that's not to say that some of it wasn't correct and accurate, based on data available at the time.

Of course that's the other problem with science,: unlike religion, we keep discovering new things which mean we change our predictions.   It's the nature of the beast I am afraid, but I understand why might find it difficult to understand (just as they get confused when told global warming can result in some places getting colder, or that summers will be drier with more floods)

[tmcom]

But lets hear from a real expert.

Yeah, facts.

[tmcom]

Warning swearing, but this is MMGW so...

[tmcom]

Being burned alive by the cleansing fires of heaven and then drowned in a tidal wave, yeah, sounds like fun, and swearing at the end.

This is satire, but this crap is being taught in schools and colleges, so there is a ring of truth.

 

[Doug1029]

1 hour ago, tmcom said:

And why do believers dismiss Gores, failure, since it is backed up by 900+ peer reviewed papers, all on his side, and all wrong.

And 2018 Annual GWPF Lecture - Prof Richard Lindzen - Global Warming For The Two Cultures video l previously posted, for the same reason.

 

You might convince each other, but that is about it.

Instead of just dismissing Gore's failures, why don't we just dismiss Gore.  With 20/20 hindsight we can say that he got some right and he got some wrong.  His record is not good enough to use as a reference in a scientific article, especially because he doesn't explain anything.

As time goes on, some of Gore's predictions will still come true.  You can't say in 2019 that something he predicted for 2100 isn't true.  To date, climate change has been slow - slower than Gore expected.  If you give him a few more years, he'll do better.  His big mistake was in saying WHEN he thought things would happen.

Doug

[Doug1029]

Why don't we try discussing specific issues.  These rants are too vague.  They don't even know what they're ranting for or against.

Doug

[tmcom]

Here is a shocking one.

The Terminal Gust movie, scarrry.

[Doug1029]

1 minute ago, tmcom said:

Here is a shocking one.

The Terminal Gust movie, scarrry.

Coal Lobby Warns Wind Farms May Blow Earth Off Orbit!

Are these nut jobs your source of information?

Doug

[tmcom]

5 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

Coal Lobby Warns Wind Farms May Blow Earth Off Orbit!

Are these nut jobs your source of information?

Doug

No these nut jobs are actors doing satire, although l am still checking Bushs one?

Edited July 23, 2019 by tmcom

[Doug1029]

1 hour ago, tmcom said:

No these nut jobs are actors doing satire, although l am still checking Bushs one?

Thanks for the clarification.  I never know ehther you're just kidding or you really believe it.

Doug

[Doug1029]

21 hours ago, tmcom said:

Being burned alive by the cleansing fires of heaven and then drowned in a tidal wave, yeah, sounds like fun, and swearing at the end.

This is satire, but this crap is being taught in schools and colleges, so there is a ring of truth.

 

What is being taught in colleges is the science of climate change.  In STEM curricula that mostly comes in the form of biology, ecology, technology (use of the instruments) and math/statistics (using diagnostics).

In forestry - a profession with extremely long planning horizons - foresters are now having to predict what the climate will be like when a particular stand reaches maturity, generally 120 years in the future.  Increasing CO2 levels are changing site index curves that have been in use since the 1840s.  This has to be included in curricula so that students can put it to use in the field, often as soon as five years after taking the course.

So, yes.  It's being taught in colleges - but with a sound scientific basis.

Doug

[tmcom]

Ok, a real expert for a change.

If you can't trust a cigar weilding dog, who can you trust?

And Saddam is responsible.

 

But now it is time for the weather.

Sorry this is Global Warming related, .....ing Weather, there that is better.

[Doug1029]

Weather is what you see when you look out the window.  Climate is the average of all the weather you saw looking out that window over the last 30 years.

Doug

[tmcom]

This video was done in 2018, so ummm, never mind.

This video reeks of using 30 years to predict stuff, so l guess it is valid?

And a warning, he does show the catastrophic difference in the lsland beaches, stated in the predictions, and it is not pretty.

And all of those tourists swimming and walking about only add's to the direness, (they should be running about and screaming).

[Doug1029]

5 minutes ago, tmcom said:

This video was done in 2018, so ummm, never mind.

This video reeks of using 30 years to predict stuff, so l guess it is valid?

And a warning, he does show the catastrophic difference in the lsland beaches, stated in the predictions, and it is not pretty.

And all of those tourists swimming and walking about only add's to the direness, (they should be running about and screaming).

So is there an issue you wanted to talk about, or are you only interested goofy videos?

Doug

[tmcom]

10 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

So is there an issue you wanted to talk about, or are you only interested goofy videos?

Doug

No, no Disney cartoons here.

But 2018 was the hottest year on record, and it had cyclones, and tidal waves, and,....(ignore the snow in the desert, damm fake news).

Yes, l definitely need one of those, lol,

Warning, fast moving projectiles are shown in this video, and may contribute to Global Warming!

[Doug1029]

23 minutes ago, tmcom said:

No, no Disney cartoons here.

But 2018 was the hottest year on record, and it had cyclones, and tidal waves, and,....(ignore the snow in the desert, damm fake news).

Yes, l definitely need one of those, lol,

Warning, fast moving projectiles are shown in this video, and may contribute to Global Warming!

FYI:  the cactii shown in the picture are Saguarros.  They live in the Mojave and down along the border into Mexico.  Snow is common at higher elevations in this area.  Always has been.  Nothing new there.

Tidal waves (tsunamis) are produced by earthquakes and landslides, not by weather - your science skills need some work.

Cyclones - they're weather.  Don't know whether they're increasing or not.  Tornado belt has moved norteast over the last couple decades, but I don't know of any other changes.  We still get them here.

 

So I guess you don't really want to discuss anything.  Just rant.

 

Just off the top of my head:  2018 was something like the fifth or so hottest year ever.  That's a long way from "one of the least extreme years on record."

Doug

Edited July 25, 2019 by Doug1029