Its a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, tmcom said:

Except the one showing no sea level rise on Long Beach, showing that hysteria around sea level rise, melting and hottest recent years are crap.

I guess l need to be psychotically dependent on junk science and the end is nigh, with an abnormal fixation so my ego has something to get off of, to believe in it?

You have an opportunity to learn about real science; some of it right here on UM.  Why not take advantage of it?

I am in the process of measuring the effct of climate change in Oklahoma.  Maybe I'll expand it to the entire southern Great Plains.  I could give you a blow-by-blow description of what I am doing and why.  This is going to be a months-long process, so it's going to seem very slow.  But there are a lot of questions that need answers, so it will take a long time.

I have tested the idea that the plains are getting wetter.  They are.  I used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Oklahoma Climate Division 5 as my dataset.  The statistical question was:  are more-recent entries in the table higher than earlier entries?  Answer:  yes.  Just barely.  The relationship is a logarithmic growth curve.  The rate of moisture increase is accelerating.  But that was only detectable in winter and spring months.  Summer and fall varied too much to be sure.

My co-author pointed out that the PDSI is good for long-term droughts, but doesn't do so well with short-term droughts.  My hypothesis for the paper is that since about 1960, droughts have been getting shorter, less frequent and less intense.  I would want a dataset that was more-responsive to short-term drought.  So now I am transcirbing the Palmer Z-index for Oklahoma Climate Division 5.  It is a day-long process, so I won't be running any tests today.

Each of the four different indices measures something different about drought, so I may have to transcribe and analyse all four of them.  For the moment, I am restricting myself to Division 5, but if my hypotheses are true, I will need to show that they aren't flukes associated with one division only.  That means that once I find models that work well, I will have to expand the effort to the whole state (9 divisions).  Then expand it further to include Kansas, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Colorado east of the Front Range and New Mexico east of the Sangre de Cristos.  Spatial analyses will show whether this is a southern plains phenomenon or whether it is localized.

I'll likely be working on it yet next spring.  So it's going to take awhile.

Doug

 

[Michelle]

1 hour ago, Doug1o29 said:

Hydro is maxed out.

Not really. Another one is being planned for Sand Mountain. 

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2019/jun/03/developers-eye-sand-mountasite-pumped-storage/495860/

 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Michelle said:

Not really. Another one is being planned for Sand Mountain. 

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2019/jun/03/developers-eye-sand-mountasite-pumped-storage/495860/

 

The Teton Dam site was concidered safe, too.  We need to be real careful about building new dams.

We hope the geology is agreeable.

Doug

Edited September 19, 2019 by Doug1o29

[tmcom]

Now back on subject.

We need to make trucks cleaner by, never mind, lol.

Gov, vehicles don't need to use this only new trucks, (that is a surprize).

 

And yeah, our Premier just gave himself a 49k payrise per year, l guess since he wants to F.....up our grid, he needs a half dozen Tesla batterys in his garage?

PS we only need one 1.3m people power blackout this summer or one in the next few years and that a****hole will be voted out.

 

PPS and from what l read today, the Philippines, AU, the US and l think that the last one was Brazil, have voted against green lunacy.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, tmcom said:

Now back on subject.

We need to make trucks cleaner by, never mind, lol.

Gov, vehicles don't need to use this only new trucks, (that is a surprize).

 

And yeah, our Premier just gave himself a 49k payrise per year, l guess since he wants to F.....up our grid, he needs a half dozen Tesla batterys in his garage?

PS we only need one 1.3m people power blackout this summer or one in the next few years and that a****hole will be voted out.

 

PPS and from what l read today, the Philippines, AU, the US and l think that the last one was Brazil, have voted against green lunacy.

No one vote will cancel the programs.  You still have to solve a lot of problems created by warming, whether you believe they are due to warming or not.  You still have to figure out where your power is coming from, how you power your vehicles, how you keep your harbors free of storm surges, etc.  Voting for the tide to quit coming in doesn't mean the tide will quit coming in, King Canute.

Doug

Edited September 19, 2019 by Doug1o29

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

You have an opportunity to learn about real science; some of it right here on UM.  Why not take advantage of it?

.....

My co-author pointed out that the PDSI is good for long-term droughts, but doesn't do so well with short-term droughts.  My hypothesis for the paper is that since about 1960, droughts have been getting shorter, less frequent and less intense.  I would want a dataset that was more-responsive to short-term drought.  So now I am transcirbing the Palmer Z-index for Oklahoma Climate Division 5.  It is a day-long process, so I won't be running any tests today.

I finished transcribing the Z-Index.  Ran a few tests using an exponential model.  Not one month had a significant relationship to the Z-Index values.

So what does that mean?  PDSI does better with long droughts.  Z-Index does better with short ones.  Z-Index values did not pick up the shorter droughts.  The Z-Index test failed.  The PDSI is the better dataset.  Finish trabscribing the Oklahoma PDSI data and have another look at the research on the various types of PDSI values.  Tomorrow's work is cut out.

Doug

[tmcom]

9 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

No one vote will cancel the programs.  You still have to solve a lot of problems created by warming, whether you believe they are due to warming or not.  You still have to figure out where your power is coming from, how you power your vehicles, how you keep your harbors free of storm surges, etc.  Voting for the tide to quit coming in doesn't mean the tide will quit coming in, King Canute.

Doug

True, but since all reputable charts show a flat line or a decline in world temps, we should be concentrating more on the cold.

8 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

I finished transcribing the Z-Index.  Ran a few tests using an exponential model.  Not one month had a significant relationship to the Z-Index values.

So what does that mean?  PDSI does better with long droughts.  Z-Index does better with short ones.  Z-Index values did not pick up the shorter droughts.  The Z-Index test failed.  The PDSI is the better dataset.  Finish trabscribing the Oklahoma PDSI data and have another look at the research on the various types of PDSI values.  Tomorrow's work is cut out.

Doug

I think this kind of material is better suited for the other threads on this subject.

[Essan]

2 hours ago, tmcom said:

True, but since all reputable charts show a flat line or a decline in world temps, we should be concentrating more on the cold.

 

You seem to be confusing the words "all" and "no" again   

[tmcom]

And most are children, which are let by FED BS properganda, in the classrooms, then slack off for this crap!

But there are some alleged adults with them somewhere?

A simple google search, (as l have done) would respell this rubbish, apart from the ones, which require professional help.

 

And eventhough this one does not show small children saying, "there is no future for me" it was on the ABC, AU news.

A sick cult, with brainwashed children, and teenagers fueling it, with brainless and brainwashed adults, corralling it all.

This cannot end soon enough.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, tmcom said:

True, but since all reputable charts show a flat line or a decline in world temps, we should be concentrating more on the cold.

Cold is a localized event.  While most of the world is getting warmer (on average), a few places have gotten colder.  That's just normal weather doing its thing.

9 hours ago, tmcom said:

I think this kind of material is better suited for the other threads on this subject.

Probably true.  Why don't you start one.  Then I'll have a place to put it.

On the other hand, it serves as counter-point to the lunacy.

Doug

P.S.:  Most of the places that have gotten colder have done so because the polar vortex has relocated.  And that is a function of climate change.

Doug

Edited September 20, 2019 by Doug1o29

[Guest]

tmcom:  I agree with you about some of the craziness going on today in the name of climate change.  I'm very much afraid these cheerleaders will presuure politicians into doing things that don't work, or even worse, have a negative effect.  We don't want to be spending money on useless programs.  That only discredits the real need to take action.

Doug

[Guest]

18 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

I finished transcribing the Z-Index.  Ran a few tests using an exponential model.  Not one month had a significant relationship to the Z-Index values.

So what does that mean?  PDSI does better with long droughts.  Z-Index does better with short ones.  Z-Index values did not pick up the shorter droughts.  The Z-Index test failed.  The PDSI is the better dataset.  Finish trabscribing the Oklahoma PDSI data and have another look at the research on the various types of PDSI values.  Tomorrow's work is cut out.

Doug

So the Z-index didn't work.  There's still the modified PDSI and the Penman-Monteith indices.  Seeing as I am trying to figure out where the moisture is coming from, there's also the humidity index.  We can also create precipitation indices.  The moisture might be coming from the surface of irrigated farmland.  That would require indices on the amount of irrigated farmland in each division.  For today, I'm going to work on the humidity index for Division 5.

Doug

P.S.:  Opened the files and found the Division 6 forms already set up.  So decided to finish division 6 instead.  Doesn't much matter - they all have to be done and they're all mind-numbing.  It's the pits when reality inserts its ugly head.

Doug

Edited September 20, 2019 by Doug1o29

[tmcom]

1 hour ago, Doug1o29 said:

Cold is a localized event.  While most of the world is getting warmer (on average), a few places have gotten colder.  That's just normal weather doing its thing.

Probably true.  Why don't you start one.  Then I'll have a place to put it.

On the other hand, it serves as counter-point to the lunacy.

Doug

 

I believe that Lost_Shamans one on CO2, and more talk on raw numbers is more suitable. And the rest gets back to my previous point!

1 hour ago, Doug1o29 said:

tmcom:  I agree with you about some of the craziness going on today in the name of climate change.  I'm very much afraid these cheerleaders will presuure politicians into doing things that don't work, or even worse, have a negative effect.  We don't want to be spending money on useless programs.  That only discredits the real need to take action.

Doug

It is also funny that the Guardian, (a propaganda newspaper) is mainly covering this crap in countries that have voted against climate change, or the party pushing it.

Scairing children, and feeding them antidepressants by *****brained, so called adults, (this is happening in AU) doens't get any more insane than that.

The Herald Sun in AU, is not using the Climate Emercency or anything like that, terms when discussing anything related, as it is distancing itself from the movement that is a cult with frantic mindless members.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, tmcom said:

Scairing children, and feeding them antidepressants by *****brained, so called adults, (this is happening in AU) doens't get any more insane than that.

Despair is about the same thing as denial.  Letting their children get scared of climate change is about the same as child abuse.  The parents need to teach them that there are things they (the children) can do about it right now (energy conservation measures) and that we will get a handle on this thing.  We can mostly stop the CO2 rise by 2050.  After that, we will probably take another 50 to get CO2 down to safe levels.  We'll come out of this alive and mostly well.

There are already things related to climate that we can never get back to.  And we are going to lose some more along the way.  But we will beat this.

Doug

 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, tmcom said:

I believe that Lost_Shamans one on CO2, and more talk on raw numbers is more suitable. And the rest gets back to my previous point!

Reality intrudes its ugly head.  I'm about the only thing keeping this thread from becoming a total fairy tale.

I am into process, not numbers.  If you want to bring them up, or if a comment requires some, I'll use them.  Otherwise, it's about results.

Speaking of results:  I'm up to 1919 on the humidity transcription (started with 1895).  Maybe I can run a correlation test this afternoon, maybe not).

Doug

[tmcom]

46 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

Reality intrudes its ugly head.  I'm about the only thing keeping this thread from becoming a total fairy tale.

I am into process, not numbers.  If you want to bring them up, or if a comment requires some, I'll use them.  Otherwise, it's about results.

Speaking of results:  I'm up to 1919 on the humidity transcription (started with 1895).  Maybe I can run a correlation test this afternoon, maybe not).

Doug

Yes, results like a 150 year old coastal image showing a barely noticeable sea level rise in California, and a simple video search showing nothing over a decade.

Including a ton of Tony Hellar videos showing mainly cooling across the planet.

No sorry Doug, this thread contains facts and taking the p*** out of insane individuals.

 

You can push all of the numbers you like, (prefibly not here) just as long as they are genuine, and not something someone made up.

I wasn't going to post this, but l probably should, this shows charts and graphs, which are ties!

I suggest you watch this!

[Guest]

12 hours ago, tmcom said:

True, but since all reputable charts show a flat line or a decline in world temps, we should be concentrating more on the cold.

The only such charts I am aware of are for the American Southwest and show HIGH temps, not average temps.  The American heatwave of the mid-1930s did not occur anywhere else and at that, many of those high readings are suspicious, the result of failing to protect thermometers from dirst sunlight.

So name a worlwide dataset showing average monthly or annual temps that does not show increasing temperature.

Doug

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, tmcom said:

Yes, results like a 150 year old coastal image showing a barely noticeable sea level rise in California, and a simple video search showing nothing over a decade.

Including a ton of Tony Hellar videos showing mainly cooling across the planet.

No sorry Doug, this thread contains facts and taking the p*** out of insane individuals.

 

You can push all of the numbers you like, (prefibly not here) just as long as they are genuine, and not something someone made up.

I wasn't going to post this, but l probably should, this shows charts and graphs, which are ties!

I suggest you watch this!

I was right.  It shows the "warmest" temps, not the averages.  And the deniers bought it, hook, line and sinker.  What stupid people.

Doug

 

[tmcom]

 

17 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

The only such charts I am aware of are for the American Southwest and show HIGH temps, not average temps.  The American heatwave of the mid-1930s did not occur anywhere else and at that, many of those high readings are suspicious, the result of failing to protect thermometers from dirst sunlight.

So name a worlwide dataset showing average monthly or annual temps that does not show increasing temperature.

Doug

This shows you don't watch a fair portion of the T.H. video l post. This was already covered or AU, and the UK also went though heatwaves during the 30's.

14 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

I was right.  It shows the "warmest" temps, not the averages.  And the deniers bought it, hook, line and sinker.  What stupid people.

Doug

It shows number of days that are going to be hot, are supposedly increasing, eventhough all real data shows the opposite, or cooling since the 1930's.

Edited September 20, 2019 by tmcom

[Guest]

1 hour ago, tmcom said:

 

This shows you don't watch a fair portion of the T.H. video l post. This was already covered or AU, and the UK also went though heatwaves during the 30's.

It shows number of days that are going to be hot, are supposedly increasing, eventhough all real data shows the opposite, or cooling since the 1930's.

Here's the data for Central Iowa.  You want the column labeled HDD.  It is the number of days times the number of degrees (F) that temps went above the index temp (68F, I think).  These are monthly figures.  They will make more sense if you add up each year's values and graph them by year.

If you use the URL it will probably list the results in aligned columns that are easier to read than UM's system of deleating "extra" spaces.  If is protected by a pay wall.  Hopefully, this URL will get you around that.

Doug

PDSI Data files for Central Iowa https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/CDODiv6852118008131.txt

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

Here's the data for Central Iowa.  You want the column labeled HDD.  It is the number of days times the number of degrees (F) that temps went above the index temp (68F, I think).  These are monthly figures.  They will make more sense if you add up each year's values and graph them by year.

If you use the URL it will probably list the results in aligned columns that are easier to read than UM's system of deleating "extra" spaces.  If is protected by a pay wall.  Hopefully, this URL will get you around that.

Doug

PDSI Data files for Central Iowa https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/CDODiv6852118008131.txt

I see UM didn't like all that data.  That's OK, though.  It was a rather large dataset.  Thought about removing it myself.

Anyway, the chart shown in tmcom's video showed a 30-year running average of the extreme high temps for someplace in Iowa, probably Iowa City.  That is, by definition, climate.  It does not, however, say anything about rising global temps.  Why?  Because global warming is measured using AVERAGE temps.  I have made similar charts for Oklahoma City and Stillwater, Oklahoma.  They show the same bump in 1936 that tmcom's chart shows.  However, they then decline to a low point and then climb back to the high.  But the low-points are in different years.  Every city you make one of those for is going a have a unique shape.  Average them altogether and you get the global chart.

BTW:  if you make a global chart of high temps, that 1936 bump disappears.  It's only in the American southwest high-temperature data.

Doug

Edited September 20, 2019 by Doug1o29

[Guest]

16 hours ago, tmcom said:

I think this kind of material is better suited for the other threads on this subject.

I do see your point and I will fall off a couple points in your direction:  Blow-by-blow descriptions of whihc datasets I've transcribed are dull and boring by anybody's definition.  So I will not mention them anymore unless I have something to say about them.

I have just run the tests for the Humidity Index.  It shows moisture in Ok Div 5 increasing along a logarthmic curve for every month except May, through July.  So I now have two acceptable datasets to explore Oklahoma's increasing moisture levels:  PDSI and Humidity Index.  Z-Index failed.  Score is 2-1.  Trying to decide whether I want to run the Modified Index or not.  Going to have to do some more reading.

Doug

[tmcom]

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/20/panel-of-third-graders-to-dictate-nations-climate-change-policy/

Quote

“These kids have ideas and they are passionate, so we must listen to them,” said Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii. “There are no possible downsides to taking kids who have been told the world is ending by the public school system and allowing them to dictate national policies on important issues.”

I honestly don't know anymore if this idiot is serious, but he appears to be.

Here are the three year old, experts, best recommendation.

Quote

Just ignoring climate change and playing Fortnite

What does this certified d***head expect them to say, "here is how to build a fission reactor that works"?

Quote

“It’s incredibly brave for these kids to volunteer to take over our government’s climate change policies,” said Schatz as the panel convened for its seventh Fortnite break of the morning. “I’m not sure why we didn’t think of this before.”

Gee, beats me maybe Greta wasn't enough, maybe this idiot should get some babys in next, since he is one already!

This circus is truly a circus, with adults listening to three year olds!

[Guest]

20 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

I do see your point and I will fall off a couple points in your direction:  Blow-by-blow descriptions of whihc datasets I've transcribed are dull and boring by anybody's definition.  So I will not mention them anymore unless I have something to say about them.

I have just run the tests for the Humidity Index.  It shows moisture in Ok Div 5 increasing along a logarthmic curve for every month except May, through July.  So I now have two acceptable datasets to explore Oklahoma's increasing moisture levels:  PDSI and Humidity Index.  Z-Index failed.  Score is 2-1.  Trying to decide whether I want to run the Modified Index or not.  Going to have to do some more reading.

Doug

I'm going to test the Modified Index on Monday.  Just doing some reading today.

Doug

[tmcom]

I had someone today tell me, that Earths climate may go into runaway mode and our atmosphere could end up like Venuses, (melts lead, crippling air pressures) or a real hell on Earth type scenario.

https://www.space.com/42570-venus-model-for-climate-change.html

He also went on with the usual, so l kept my distance, but yeah, imagine telling your 5 year old, that.

Scairing children, and putting them on drugs, based on bad science at best, and outright lies at worst, and throwing in the Venus reference, or the burn in hellfire.

I would say that l need to contact Tony H, about this one.