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tmcom

Its a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

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lost_shaman
2 hours ago, Essan said:

That may be a contributory factor, but the main reason is more likely the decline in temperature gradient due to recent Arctic warming - whatever the reason might be for that!

Arctic surface temperatures have been dropping since 2016.

fig-4-ncar-r1-arctic-msat-1948-2019.gif

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Doug1029
1 hour ago, lost_shaman said:

Arctic surface temperatures have been dropping since 2016.

fig-4-ncar-r1-arctic-msat-1948-2019.gif

What did you expect?  2016 was the hottest year on record.

Doug

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lost_shaman
17 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

What did you expect?  2016 was the hottest year on record.

The 2015/2016 El Nino was the strongest on record. So I expect we will continue to cool even though we are currently still in an El Nino now. Eventually conditions will flip to the cool La Nina phase and then all bets are off as the Sun will not begin to ramp up activity until mid-2022 or so.

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Doug1029
39 minutes ago, lost_shaman said:

The 2015/2016 El Nino was the strongest on record. So I expect we will continue to cool even though we are currently still in an El Nino now. Eventually conditions will flip to the cool La Nina phase and then all bets are off as the Sun will not begin to ramp up activity until mid-2022 or so.

Could be, but I'm not making predictions that far ahead.

Doug

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lost_shaman
39 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

Could be, but I'm not making predictions that far ahead.

Doug

Well I don't mind, it is only 36 months. The current El Nino is mild and likely waning now, at any rate the current ENSO warm El Nino phase will flip to La Nina conditions well before the Sun wakes from it's Solar Minimum. 

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tmcom
Posted (edited)

https://www.spiked-online.com/2014/03/31/ipcc-why-the-end-is-always-nigh/

Pity l couldn't change my header.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/05/climate-change-new-and-failed-the-end-is-nigh-predictions/

Quote

Aw bless all those little tipping points. I think it would make a good drinking game – round and round the drinking circle, everyone has to think up a different excuse for a potential environmental tipping point. If someone can’t think of a new unique reason in 10 seconds, they pay a “tipping point” penalty – they need to down the shot, because they obviously aren’t drunk enough to function at the level of mental competence of a climate worrier.

 

Quote

So they have made an unprecedented quantity of failed predictions! Now we are getting somewhere, finally at least something is unprecedented!

 

Quote

Sorry, your climate catastrohorse not only crossed the line, it died years ago. Yet you alarmists keep beating it. Amusing really. The trouble is that the actual climate refuses to go along with your fantasy climate.

Yes, a tipping point, the Science is settled board game is what we need, l figure if we replace the mice with polar bears, Mousetrap will do.

Love some of the comments, the end is always nigh,and when the date arrives it is always oil companies behind the failed prediction.

Or it could be people with an addiction to Chicken little tv Dinners, who need someone to pinch them, (preferably in the face).

^_^

Edited by tmcom
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Essan
Posted (edited)

Not everyone wrongly predicts a fiery catastrophe .....

New Ice Age 'to begin in 2014'

Svensmark: "global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning"

New Research Paper Predicts 15 Years Of Cooling

Forget Global Cooling Predictions…It’s Already Happening!

Scientists Predict New Ice Age By 2019 As Sun ‘Goes Blank’

As Europe prepares for another potentially record breaking heat wave next week, we're still waiting ....

Edited by Essan

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Essan

And my favourite, the Don Easterbrook Projection :D  

EasterbrookProjection.png

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Doug1029

Back in 1893, the station observer at Guthrie, OK thought he had a system for predicting extreme winters.  He showed how winter low temps fit his model going back to 1880.  His article was published in the Oklahoma Weather Bulletin.  Thanks to him we know what the low winter temps in Guthrie were in the 1880s, but the weather trashed his model in less than five years.  The Easterbrook Projection reminds me of that.  People are always coming up with models, based only on a pattern they think they see in the data.  But the weather quickly puts them out of business.  You need something more in your model.

 

With a mild El Nino ending, we are probably in for several years of temps that don't set any new records, except maybe third, fourth or fifth places.  That's all just normal variation around a steadily-rising mean.

Doug

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Doug1029
5 hours ago, Essan said:

This one sounds like they might actually know what they're talking about.  BUT:  they're basing everything on the North Atlantic Oscillation.  That, in turn, is being driven by  ....  what?

Some other papers contain some speculation that temps will be lower, based on a "cool sun."  That does have a small cooling effect, so if temps are otherwise steady, the "cool sun" can drag them down a little bit, but otherwise, I think it is wistful thinking by some solar scientists who are not considering how solar activity fits into climate.

 

Remember the "hiatus?"  That lasted from 1998 to 2005.  Deniers, especially Merc, were still crowing about it in 2012.  Where are they now?  Probably trying to grasp at another straw.

Doug

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tmcom

https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2019/06/seaweed-solution-making-waves-in-the-quest-to-reverse-global-warming/

This is one of the ideas from the bible, (2040 movie) book, that we should grow tons of kelp to supposedly turn around the unicorn gloom and doom scenario  that refuses to happen.

Just as long as they don't call it the Soylent Corporation.

^_^

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tmcom

Groan, l have tried to find the Inconvient Truth video, for laughs, but it isn't available for free, but did find this...

This Gore sermon on the mount of coal, looks in every way as a Sunday morning preacher, giving a fire and brimstone sermon, pitiful...

Also take note of when Trump bursts their bubble at the end, l bet Gore looks flattened, he was saving up for his fifth condo on the beach, fully staffed, and now has to make do with the 5 he currently owns, he might even have to cut back on his lear jet trips,....blasphemy.

This dribble came out last year, and l am sure it is true this time, lol.

^_^

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tmcom

Ok, watched the entire Inconvenient Truth movie, (got if from someone, it isn't online anymore for obvious reasons) and back then Gore, (IMO) genuinely believed in the end is nigh scenario. 2005 was the hottest year back then, ice was melting everywhere, and the 900+ peer reviewed papers out of 10,000 had no skeptics that we had caused it.

And 10 years later, zilch. 13 years later zilch. But has that made him think, nope, he is determined to get the message through, and make a buck, and the message thing. :rolleyes:

Now almost present day, he does another movie, (l may try to find this one, well may) and does he learn through the 100% failure to predict squat to go back to one of his mansions and do a Howard Hughes lifestyle, nope.

He cherry pick's the first failure, for the World Trade Centre area getting flooded, although it took a tornado to do that, not natural ice melting anywhere as he predicted.

In the first he clearly states that Greenlands or the Arctic ice melting would cause the New York flooding, not a one off tornado.

 

I will have to watch his second one to be sure, but from what l can see he is a nutter that has an unnatural obsession with the world ending, and he, crusading to fix it.

 

The fact that he screwed up the first time, doesn't sink in, he is right regardless, and cannot be reasoned with. I have dealt with someone like him recently elsewhere, and after clearly showing the above one in more detail, made a stupid remark about oil companies being behind the failed attempt and then personally attacked me.

The oil one is funny since that means present day data is also wrong, or there is no MMGW, but of course that makes no difference. Some who believe in this, ignore all failures, ignore all data showing more failures and keep on believing and preaching.

All the while while level headed people are voting against this, since they can see the failures and the chicken little preaching.

 

No, this is a cult where most have left, and the true fanatics will believe no matter what, and will attack anyone who displeases them.

 

We don't discuss this elsewhere, since we are not allowed to discuss religion there, and this certainly falls under that label, and after being attacked by the cult leader, and ignoring another baited remark to get me into an argument, glad that is so, since no discussion is possible it is just we are right, all of your evidence isn't valid for this and that reason, and we will attack and pick a fight since you are stomping on our unnatural ego driven obsession with this religion.

 

I would think the reason for the agression is not because l am a denier blocking their save the planet ideal, but more alone the lines that their ego's are threatened and lash out, which explains the inability to see the flaws and press on.

Looking like dimwits in front of everyone may also be a part, but not the key driver.

B)

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tmcom

Ok, found it, and this video is in two parts, and is back the front, (l know irony) so all text is backwards, l will try to find a decent copy, but so far the congressional hearing pretty much covers what l previously said.

When asked "everything is attributed to climate change", "Gore just cannot comprehend it".

 

And Trump is sick of this idiot, goes without saying, Gore ignores all failures, and just keeps on.

Gore may not be as bad as the idiots trying to prove that the earth is flat, but he is not far off.

He has serious issues, and l feel for him and others unable to see what is obvious, but all Trump and others can do is let him be, and prove it to the masses, since they are more open to seeing facts and evidence from actual experts, than someone who isn't.

:huh:

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lost_shaman

I'll give Gore one thing, he certainly comes across as sensire and completely convinced in his beliefs!

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tmcom

Just watched it and it is a shadow of its former self, or the first one was better, this one goes over old ground, cherry picks out scientists who are with him, finds a disaster to put a end is nigh stamp on, and preaches literally during the last hour, (l swear l expected to hear the end is nigh Ghostbusters speech).

He also mentions the world trade centre flooding, (the only thing he predicted, l guess) but that was not due to rising sea levels just a fluke Cyclone.

Cannot be reasoned with is convinced big business and the US gov, is intentionally burying this, which is probably true, since they know that it is nonsense with fanatics blindly pushing this.

And when you mix this with the tipping point then the faithful become aggressive, (as l have seen firsthand).

 

So the faithful are frantically pushing systems that are not that affective, drive up prices, and destabilize industry and economies, so it looks like we are doing something, yes mad indeed.

 

We endorse crap since it doesn't threaten oil price, and ignore anything that could actually solve the power for pollution issue since it does, lol, crazy and insane.

:o

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tmcom

Just learned today that our premier nutcase, if elected again and again, (Vic, AU) wants to close down another of our coal power plants, (generates 22%) this madness never ceases. And why does it not cease, since our premier is insane,....here are a few more.

2014.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/07/another-call-to-arrest-climate-deniers/

Quote

Man-made climate change happens. Man-made climate change kills a lot of people. It’s going to kill a lot more. We have laws on the books to punish anyone whose lies contribute to people’s deaths. It’s time to punish the climate-change liars.

2015.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/19/cyclone-marcia-climate-crank-wishing-suffering-on-deniers/

 

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/gores_reality_marathon_totally_lacked_a_sense_of_reality/

Quote

Polls show that people are questioning the “reality” of man made global warming. This has infuriated Gore as evidenced by his recent profanity laced public tirade this past summer. As his desperation grows so do his outlandish claims. There is no more natural varibility to the weather, it is all caused by man made global warming, according to Gore. When someone is drowning they yell louder and louder for help.  (Excerpt from 2011)

This is what happens when you corner one of these nutters, they get aggressive, (l have seen this first hand elsewhere) or present very good evidence that they are wrong.

A normal person would be depressed at being wrong but be happy that they know the truth, not go into a rage, only something with an unhealthy fixation does that.

 

Deniers should be jailed, lol, doesn't get any funnier than that, maybe we should get the death penalty, one life for a couple of million in 30 years?

Definitely a cult, and one that is becoming frantic, which only add's to the entertainment value.

^_^

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Essan

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Doug1029
3 hours ago, tmcom said:

Deniers should be jailed, lol, doesn't get any funnier than that, maybe we should get the death penalty, one life for a couple of million in 30 years?

That idea, by itself, would be unconstitutional.  There is absolutely no chance of that happening in the US.

BUT:  if it can be shown that the defendant's actions in denying climate science, resulted in harm to the plaintiff, then the courts could assess damages.  As far as I know, this has happened once - in Michael Mann's defamation lawsuit against a shock jock who should have known better than to engage in personal attacks on the air.  He was sued for libel, not for voicing an opinion on climate science.

As a practical matter, it will take decades for harm being done by today's deniers to surface - long after the statute of limitations expires, in most cases.  The only way a case could end up in court would be by invoking RICO provisions.  But only corporations live long enough for that to be both effective and necessary.  I don't think ou're going to see any cases like that in the US anyt ime soon.

Doug

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tmcom
2 hours ago, Essan said:

The UK is 50% Nuclear, or close to it.

And they go a week without it, good for them, let's see what happens when there is little to no wind/solar, lol.

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/epa_plan_to_ban_coal_hits_major_roadblock/

As for my state, we have no nuclear, and will basically have a state wide power blackout if an other one is allowed to close, typically at dawn on a hot day,.....can't wait. That or p*** away another 30 million buying it at excessively high prices from Q, NSW, (SA is already, 50% renewbles, *****up).

Quote

“As with any cult, once the mythology of the cult begins falling apart, instead of saying, oh, we were wrong, they get more and more fanatical. I think that’s what’s happening here. Think about it,” he said. “You’ve led an unpleasant life, you haven’t led a very virtuous life, but now you’re told, you get absolution if you watch your carbon footprint. It’s salvation!”

Lindzen, 74, has issued calm dismissals of warmist apocalypse, reducing his critics to sputtering rage.

And this...

Quote

Last week, government agencies including NASA announced that 2014 was the “hottest year” in “recorded history,” as The New York Times put it in an early edition. Last year has since been demoted by the Times to the hottest “since record-keeping began in 1880.”

But that may not be true. Now the same agencies have acknowledged that there’s only a 38 percent chance that 2014 was the hottest year on record. And even if it was, it was only by two-100ths of a degree.

So it went from sure thing to sure thing in recent history to a 38% chance of a sure thing.

I know this sounds quite rational to the faithful, but ....ing crazy to everyone else.

And thankfully everyone else are the ones who vote and boot out the crazies,

Unfortunately our crazy will be in power for a few more years, and if reelected will go to bed at night knowing that he is clocking up the retiree death count due to a freezing house, since power prices have substantially risen again, to save something?

Oh, yeah, the sucker 18 year old, irrational vote.

B)

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Doug1029
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, tmcom said:

The UK is 50% Nuclear, or close to it.

And they go a week without it, good for them, let's see what happens when there is little to no wind/solar, lol.

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/epa_plan_to_ban_coal_hits_major_roadblock/

As for my state, we have no nuclear, and will basically have a state wide power blackout if an other one is allowed to close, typically at dawn on a hot day,.....can't wait. That or p*** away another 30 million buying it at excessively high prices from Q, NSW, (SA is already, 50% renewbles, *****up).

And this...

So it went from sure thing to sure thing in recent history to a 38% chance of a sure thing.

I know this sounds quite rational to the faithful, but ....ing crazy to everyone else.

And thankfully everyone else are the ones who vote and boot out the crazies,

Unfortunately our crazy will be in power for a few more years, and if reelected will go to bed at night knowing that he is clocking up the retiree death count due to a freezing house, since power prices have substantially risen again, to save something?

Oh, yeah, the sucker 18 year old, irrational vote.

B)

You can't just start closing plants when you have nothing available to take over.

Build your wind system first, THEN start closing coal plants.

Doug

P.S.:  The only technologies seriously ready for market are wind technologies.  Solar is just starting to produce plants that can hold their won against gas/oil.  Might be an idea to wait a couple years on solar and see which way the wind is blowing.

Doug

Edited by Doug1029

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tmcom
58 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

You can't just start closing plants when you have nothing available to take over.

Build your wind system first, THEN start closing coal plants.

Doug

P.S.:  The only technologies seriously ready for market are wind technologies.  Solar is just starting to produce plants that can hold their won against gas/oil.  Might be an idea to wait a couple years on solar and see which way the wind is blowing.

Doug

Tried that and solar helped til 5pm, and then was useless, and no wind so that was useless, and then 200,000 people went without power for suppesedly a few hours, (although the paper said 7) and even with the army of diesal gen, had to buy it from Q, NSW for 30 million, that we naturally had to pay back through more expensive elect, so he really is a dimwit, and if he stays in power for another 6 years, and this one closes, (from what l read today this idiot will try to fasttrack it from 2033 to 2022) then we will be really ....ed.

:blink:

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Desertrat56
On 6/21/2019 at 9:08 AM, Doug1o29 said:

Back in 1893, the station observer at Guthrie, OK thought he had a system for predicting extreme winters.  He showed how winter low temps fit his model going back to 1880.  His article was published in the Oklahoma Weather Bulletin.  Thanks to him we know what the low winter temps in Guthrie were in the 1880s, but the weather trashed his model in less than five years.  The Easterbrook Projection reminds me of that.  People are always coming up with models, based only on a pattern they think they see in the data.  But the weather quickly puts them out of business.  You need something more in your model.

 

With a mild El Nino ending, we are probably in for several years of temps that don't set any new records, except maybe third, fourth or fifth places.  That's all just normal variation around a steadily-rising mean.

Doug

Maybe the patterns are based on too little data, like 13 years is too short a time to come up with a viable weather pattern.  Mabye 100 years would be a better lenghth of time to get a more workable preditor, but 1000 years would be even better, along with the other data like human population, types of gases emitted from human activity etc.

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Doug1029
38 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Maybe the patterns are based on too little data, like 13 years is too short a time to come up with a viable weather pattern.  Mabye 100 years would be a better lenghth of time to get a more workable preditor, but 1000 years would be even better, along with the other data like human population, types of gases emitted from human activity etc.

True.  The standard is 30 years, unless you can find some other way to analyze the data.  I deal with events that occur once in 18 or 20 years.  I never have enough data.

Doug

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Doug1029
1 hour ago, tmcom said:

Tried that and solar helped til 5pm, and then was useless, and no wind so that was useless, and then 200,000 people went without power for suppesedly a few hours, (although the paper said 7) and even with the army of diesal gen, had to buy it from Q, NSW for 30 million, that we naturally had to pay back through more expensive elect, so he really is a dimwit, and if he stays in power for another 6 years, and this one closes, (from what l read today this idiot will try to fasttrack it from 2033 to 2022) then we will be really ....ed.

:blink:

Bull!  Efficient solar systems haven't been available until this year.  If you tried solar, it was one of the obsolete, inefficient systems.

You only have wind failures at a particular turbine 10% of the time.  That means there are other turbines in the same wind farm that can pick up the slack and then there are other wind farms.  You should never have a power failure due to lack of wind

UNLESS:

1.  Australians are unusually stupid and haven't networked their grids, or

2.  You haven't built the needed wind capacity, or

3.  You do not have enough capacity of any kind.  In which case, why aren't you building more?

 

You said you had hydro.  Use wind preferentailly to save your water, then you can use the water to cover low-production periods (like when your obsolete coal plant breaks down).

 

Most of your problem seems to be not having a grid, or knowing how to run it if you do have it.

Doug

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