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macqdor

How to Be Less Wrong

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macqdor

https://medium.com/the-polymath-project/the-ideological-turing-test-how-to-be-less-wrong-6803a8c290cf

 

The Ideological Turing Test: How to Be Less Wrong

 

Quote

One of my favorite introductions to human error is Kathryn Schulz’s Being Wrong.

Our default state, says Schulz, is to feel like we’re right all the time:

“A whole lot of us go through life assuming that we are basically right, basically all the time, about basically everything: about our political and intellectual convictions, our religious and moral beliefs, our assessment of other people, our memories, our grasp of facts. As absurd as it sounds when we stop to think about it, our steady state seems to be one of unconsciously assuming that we are very close to omniscient.”

 

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sci-nerd
Posted (edited)

I think this applies mainly to people between 15 and 35. They trust too many unreliable sources, they trust their memory and they presume too much.

That's really one of the few advantages of life past 40. You start to get your sources and facts straight, and you've learned how faulty memory is. Mostly :D

Edited by sci-nerd

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RabidMongoose
29 minutes ago, macqdor said:

When it comes to behavioural psychology then everyone does it. The only way to understand the world is to gain knowledge on it, and when our knowledge is attacked we resist. Only those mindful enough to engage in true self-reflection can catch just how often they do it. When they do they realise its automatic and goes on all day long.

This is why when we go to university we get taught to question and criticise every theory, model, and concept. We do not accept something just because it has a prominent name attached to it like Einstein or Mintzberg. We scrutinise as best we can then make our own minds up because there are assumptions, flaws, and inconsistencies everywhere.

And once we graduate that then sets us up for doing research degrees.

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ExpandMyMind
1 hour ago, sci-nerd said:

I think this applies mainly to people between 15 and 35. They trust too many unreliable sources, they trust their memory and they presume too much.

With respect, I disagree. It's largely older people who are susceptible to believing everything they see or read, especially on the internet.

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sci-nerd
2 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

With respect, I disagree. It's largely older people who are susceptible to believing everything they see or read, especially on the internet.

Maybe because they grew up with old style reliable medias, like newspapers. They're used to a high editorial standard, and then comes the internet, where any idiot can claim whatever they want, without being opposed. That is quite a paradigm shift, and they might be too old to adjust to it.

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macqdor

I don't you can quantify it simply into age groups.  Every age group does this. The old say the young people do this more. The young say the old people do it more.

 

I say both.

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sci-nerd
15 minutes ago, macqdor said:

I don't you can quantify it simply into age groups.  Every age group does this. The old say the young people do this more. The young say the old people do it more.

 

I say both.

I can only speak from my own experience. When I was in my 30's, I thought I had all the answers. It turned out, I was wrong about everything.
I see that a lot around me too. Younger adults who has it all figured out.

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Imaginarynumber1
27 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

With respect, I disagree. It's largely older people who are susceptible to believing everything they see or read, especially on the internet.

Studies have consistently shown that millennials, though constantly **** on, are more informed than baby boomers

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spartan max2

I think it's also fair to add, in relation to OP articule, that alot of people second guess themselves alot; their intuition and judgments. 

I think the smarter someone is often the less certain. The dumb are often very certain haha

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sci-nerd
2 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

I think it's also fair to add, in relation to OP articule, that alot of people second guess themselves alot; their intuition and judgments. 

I think the smarter someone is often the less certain. The dumb are often very certain haha

Very true!

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sci-nerd
4 minutes ago, Imaginarynumber1 said:

Studies have consistently shown that millennials, though constantly **** on, are more informed than baby boomers

Maybe it's a 30-something thing. To think you know it all.

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XenoFish
10 minutes ago, Imaginarynumber1 said:

are more informed than baby boomers

We are surrounded by a world of information and people are still idiots. It also depends on how factual and non-bias the information is. 

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XenoFish
19 minutes ago, sci-nerd said:

I can only speak from my own experience. When I was in my 30's, I thought I had all the answers. It turned out, I was wrong about everything.
I see that a lot around me too. Younger adults who has it all figured out.

That was my mid-teens and twenties, now I just hope I won't blow myself up. Because the more I've learned to more I have to learn and I have admitted when I have been wrong and ill-informed. Which is typically the first assumption I make. Unless the very thing being discussed it well proven b.s.

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ExpandMyMind
29 minutes ago, Imaginarynumber1 said:

Studies have consistently shown that millennials, though constantly **** on, are more informed than baby boomers

But young people are dumber and worse than they've ever been in history. Old people know these things.

Honestly, if anything, the older you get the less perspective you have in a lot of ways, especially with regards to young people.

The young people of today … have bad manners, they scoff at authority and lack respect for their elders. Children nowadays are real tyrants … they contradict their parents … they tyrannise their teachers. - Socrates - 400BC

 

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XenoFish
2 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

But young people are dumber and worse than they've ever been in history.

You know why? Because they don't have to memorize anything. They can keep everything on their glowing plastic brick. Plus what kind of social skills can be developed over the internet anyways?

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Imaginarynumber1

Every generation is better off and generally smarter than the ones that came before.

This thread reeks of old man yelling at clouds.

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XenoFish
6 minutes ago, Imaginarynumber1 said:

This thread reeks of old man yelling at clouds.

I don't like clouds. They're big and fluffy, sometimes they look like scary monsters that urinate on everyone and fart lightening.

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ExpandMyMind
9 minutes ago, XenoFish said:

You know why? Because they don't have to memorize anything. They can keep everything on their glowing plastic brick. Plus what kind of social skills can be developed over the internet anyways?

This is just your opinion. It has no basis in fact. Conversely, they have the entire wealth of human knowledge at their fingertips. How many times growing up did you think 'I wonder what that is' or 'what's the answer this'? Anytime people think like this, they, instead of having to head off to the library, can now just find the answer in a matter of seconds. People have access to more knowledge than they have at any point in history, and you think it makes them dumber?

You seem to be under the impression that they interact exclusively online. If anything, you're proving my point with your own presumptions.

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Michelle
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, XenoFish said:

You know why? Because they don't have to memorize anything. They can keep everything on their glowing plastic brick. Plus what kind of social skills can be developed over the internet anyways?

If their cell phone dies they don't even know their emergency phone numbers. You can't just type in mom or dad on someone else's phone. :P

Anyway. since no one has provided any facts...

Study: IQ scores are falling

IQ scores have been steadily falling for the past few decades, and environmental factors are to blame, a new study says.

The research suggests that genes aren't what's driving the decline in IQ scores, according to the study, published Monday.

Norwegian researchers analyzed the IQ scores of Norwegian men born between 1962 and 1991 and found that scores increased by almost 3 percentage points each decade for those born between 1962 to 1975 -- but then saw a steady decline among those born after 1975.

cont...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/13/health/falling-iq-scores-study-intl/index.html

Edited by Michelle
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spartan max2

The generational rivary on this thread is hilarious :lol: lol 

Its all relative anyways.

Most young people have no idea how to fix a car or change a tire lol

However young people can navigate technology and the internet much better.

As a 25 year old I can attest that I have met morons in all age brackets lol

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Michelle
3 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

As a 25 year old I can attest that I have met morons in all age brackets lol

See, I always think you are older than that. :tu:

I've been impressed by the wisdom that has come from several of the members, that were younger, over the years.

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XenoFish
9 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

This is just your opinion. It has no basis in fact. Conversely, they have the entire wealth of human knowledge at their fingertips. How many times growing up did you think 'I wonder what that is' or 'what's the answer this'? Anytime people think like this, they, instead of having to head off to the library, can now just find the answer in a matter of seconds. People have access to more knowledge than they have at any point in history, and you think it makes them dumber?

You seem to be under the impression that they interact exclusively online. If anything, you're proving my point with your own presumptions.

Now all it takes is Google and you're Stephen Freaking Hawking. My point it that is seems so few put anything to memory. Take away their phones and they're dumb.  

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ExpandMyMind
Just now, XenoFish said:

Now all it takes is Google and you're Stephen Freaking Hawking. My point it that is seems so few put anything to memory. Take away their phones and they're dumb.  

Do you have anything to substantiate your opinion? You're making a claim on the basis that it sounds right to you, but there's nothing to support your opinion.

It's like when old people say videogames rot the brain, etc., or watching TV makes you dumb. It's complete nonsense.

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Michelle

Are Smartphones Making Us Stupid?

The mere presence of your smartphone can reduce cognitive capacity, study finds.

Cognitive capacity and overall brain power are significantly reduced when your smartphone is within glancing distance—even if it’s turned off and face down—according to a recent study. This new report from the University of Texas at Austin, “Brain Drain: The Mere Presence of One’s Own Smartphone Reduces Available Cognitive Capacity,” was published in the Journal of the Association for Consumer Research.

cont...

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-athletes-way/201706/are-smartphones-making-us-stupid

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XenoFish
1 minute ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Do you have anything to substantiate your opinion? You're making a claim on the basis that it sounds right to you, but there's nothing to support your opinion.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/technology-changes-memory_n_4414778

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6502424/

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/13/how-to-avoid-losing-your-memory-in-the-digital-age

You were saying?

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