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Turkey chooses S-400 over NATO

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and then

https://www.jns.org/turkey-receives-s-400-missile-defense-system-in-defiance-of-us-warnings/  

So, the die is cast for sure.  Next stop, sanctions, and outrage against Israel, no doubt ;) 

From the piece:

“Turkey will no longer be able to receive F-35 stealth jets and Turkish companies removed from the F-35 supply chain will lose $12 billion of revenue. Also, the United States is likely to impose CAATSA sanctions against Turkey, which will further undermine U.S.-Turkish trade and defense cooperation,”

 

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Captain Risky

...well that all depends on Trump. Considering Trump's business dealings inTurkey and just how compromised and indebted Flynn was to Turkey i get the distinct impression that Trump will trivialise the sanctions and give another dictator anther get outta jail card. 

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and then
1 minute ago, Captain Risky said:

...well that all depends on Trump. Considering Trump's business dealings inTurkey and just how compromised and indebted Flynn was to Turkey i get the distinct impression that Trump will trivialise the sanctions and give another dictator anther get outta jail card. 

It would be the same as giving them the blueprints to the F-35 as well as creating countermeasures to it.  I wouldn't hold my breath on this one, Trump or no Trump.  In case you hadn't noticed, he tends to err on the side of what's best for our military and THIS would most definitely not be seen that way.  When will you guys ever learn that his "idiocy" is propaganda?  Oh well, you'll have plenty more time to get it right.  January of 2025, at least.

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Captain Risky
18 minutes ago, and then said:

It would be the same as giving them the blueprints to the F-35 as well as creating countermeasures to it.  I wouldn't hold my breath on this one, Trump or no Trump.  In case you hadn't noticed, he tends to err on the side of what's best for our military and THIS would most definitely not be seen that way.  When will you guys ever learn that his "idiocy" is propaganda?  Oh well, you'll have plenty more time to get it right.  January of 2025, at least.

The S-400 is primary an intelligence and recording apparatus. On this we agree. Consider also that the F-35 is primarily a net centric flying computer that does the same thing also. The U.S. will be able to see where the foreign users of the F-35 platform are flying, what are they're flight plans are, what they see on their radar and even what the pilots see through their helmets. Also armaments and amount of fuel and more than likely a kill switch to drop them outta the air if and when America believe they are working against American interests. 

So Erdogan doesn't want them because not only is he decoupling from NATO but also the West. He will do everything possible to force Trumps hand. Trump's job is to stop the S-400 from reaching Turkey. Unfortunately it has and Trump has to activate plan B.

Trump has a fondness for Erdogan so much so that he even blamed Obama for not selling the patriot missile system to Turkey when the Turks were clearly supporting and funding ISIS in Syria and Northern Iraq at the time. Nothing about Trump is pro-military when it comes to taking their advice like in North Korea or even Russia actions in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Any sanctions coming Turkey's way will be a direct result of the house of rep's and congress protecting the net-centricity of the F-35.  

Now Turkey will be punished.

The real question here is does Trump understand the stakes? Does Trump realise that Turkey has just middle fingered the U.S.? and more importantly how will he punish an ungrateful Turkey for switching sides. Congress and the house of Rep's want Turkish blood and they should get it. Lets see what Trump is gonna say and do. 

Edited by Captain Risky
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DarkHunter

I wouldnt necessarily consider this a middle finger against America quite yet.  It's been awhile, I'll be honest I probably wont be able to find the article, but it offered up an interesting theory on why Turkey got the S-400 and it had nothing to do with Erdogan wanting to decouple Turkey from NATO/the west, but due to extreme paranoia from Erdogan over another possible coup attempt.  

Basically the article argued that while Erdogan has essentially complete control over the Turkish media and extensive control over the political aspects his control over the military is far less certain especially with more advanced branches like the Turkish airforce which recruits more educated individuals and has them largely trained in/with other NATO nations.  The reason why that would terrify Erdogan is that despite having control over the media it would essentially be impossible to hide the airforce rebelling against him as they could simply just fly over cities, and over protesters to improve their morale while demoralizing and potentially threatening those sent to stop the protesters.  Also using current NATO weapon systems any forces loyal to Erdogan would usw would essentially be completely unable to stop the Turkish airforce as NATO equipment has rather good friend or foe recognition systems that are very hard if not impossible to turn off meaning that any NATO based anti air system will not target any NATO based jet while the jets would still be able to use their cannons and at minimum gravity bombs. 

If I remember correctly Erdogan was almost killed in the coup attempt when a jet loyal to the coup forces got behind his jet while he was flying back and had his jet locked on with radar missiles, only being talked out of firing them due to the pilot convincing him that it was just a civilian airline and was not carrying Erdogan despite ground control ordering him to shoot down the plane.  Given that it would make sense for Erdogan to want a weapon system that could be used against the branch of the military least loyal to him.

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and then
49 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Trump has a fondness for Erdogan so much so that he even blamed Obama for not selling the patriot missile system to Turkey when the Turks were clearly supporting and funding ISIS in Syria and Northern Iraq at the time

Trump has no "friendly" regard for any other foreign leader.  He is constantly in schmoozing/negotiating mode, Haven't you guys figured that out YET?  It's why he says good things about Kim as well.  He'd say the same about Khamenei if Iran came to the table.  Watch what he DOES, guy, not what he SAYS.  Sheesh...  

And if you believe Erdogan fought off a real coup attempt, you are far more naive than I thought you were.  THAT was the false flag.  He used it to crush dissent without world condemnation.

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Captain Risky
36 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I wouldnt necessarily consider this a middle finger against America quite yet.  It's been awhile, I'll be honest I probably wont be able to find the article, but it offered up an interesting theory on why Turkey got the S-400 and it had nothing to do with Erdogan wanting to decouple Turkey from NATO/the west, but due to extreme paranoia from Erdogan over another possible coup attempt.  

Basically the article argued that while Erdogan has essentially complete control over the Turkish media and extensive control over the political aspects his control over the military is far less certain especially with more advanced branches like the Turkish airforce which recruits more educated individuals and has them largely trained in/with other NATO nations.  The reason why that would terrify Erdogan is that despite having control over the media it would essentially be impossible to hide the airforce rebelling against him as they could simply just fly over cities, and over protesters to improve their morale while demoralizing and potentially threatening those sent to stop the protesters.  Also using current NATO weapon systems any forces loyal to Erdogan would usw would essentially be completely unable to stop the Turkish airforce as NATO equipment has rather good friend or foe recognition systems that are very hard if not impossible to turn off meaning that any NATO based anti air system will not target any NATO based jet while the jets would still be able to use their cannons and at minimum gravity bombs. 

If I remember correctly Erdogan was almost killed in the coup attempt when a jet loyal to the coup forces got behind his jet while he was flying back and had his jet locked on with radar missiles, only being talked out of firing them due to the pilot convincing him that it was just a civilian airline and was not carrying Erdogan despite ground control ordering him to shoot down the plane.  Given that it would make sense for Erdogan to want a weapon system that could be used against the branch of the military least loyal to him.

You're referring to the coup against him in 2016. Thanks for that interesting story about just how close Erdogans plane came to being downed.

True the coup has organised and executed by U.S. friendly forces in Turkey. The airforce, lock stock and barrel was with the coup plotters and their job was primarily to find Erdogan's plane and kill him in the air. Will the S-400 be able to do that if the planes are flying escort for Erdogans plane? Can the S-400  protect him form his own airforce? No they cannot because the next American backed coup will not make the same mistakes the first made nor can it predict when or where the next attempt will be. I think Erdogan and Turkey have leaked this excuse as justification for no sanctions or at the least the bare minimal. But moving way from American and European weapons and systems can. Remember it was Putin that had Erdogan's back and warned him a coup was in the process while his "allies" did not. All the pilots that took part in the coup were all trained on U.S. fighters in America. They were probably recruited there and the spiritual head they pledge allegiance to his based in Pennsylvania and protected by the C.I.A.

I think you should look towards the behaviour of Erdogan during the Syrian war as the reason he doesn't want the F-35 or American and NATO affiliation. 

America wanted the Assad's, Russian and Iranian clients, outta Syria and the 40 million Kurds in the region to change the status quo and shake up the region in the U.S. favour.

America and the Greater Middle East Plan moves on and Kurdistan will be its primary goal. Turkey knows this, Erdogan see's the writing on the wall and has convinced the military that this new path away from the West in a national struggle. Turkey is not a homogenous nation. Its ripe for the same treatment that befell the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and it benefits the West. Erdogan and the deep Turkish state know this and are now moving outta the orbit of America. 

I can see Erdogan's point in moving away. BUT pretending that Turkey is full of sunni Turks and no one else deserves rights, including 40 million Kurds is wrong. The U.S. and Trump need to see what this is and move to safeguard their interests otherwise Putin and Erdogan will chit all over American policy and interests. 

 

 

 

Edited by Captain Risky
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3 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

BUT pretending that Turkey is full of sunni Turks and no one else deserves rights, including 40 million Turks is wrong. The U.S. and Trump need to see what this is and move to safeguard their interests otherwise Putin and Erdogan will chit all over American policy and interests. 

 

Dictators have a habit of doing such heavy-handed things.  He is all-in, now.  It only gets worse for the civilians who aren't religious fanatics or willing to behave as if they are.  That's a damned shame because there are MANY, many good people in Turkey, just as in Iran.  

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Captain Risky
21 minutes ago, and then said:

Trump has no "friendly" regard for any other foreign leader.  He is constantly in schmoozing/negotiating mode, Haven't you guys figured that out YET?  It's why he says good things about Kim as well.  He'd say the same about Khamenei if Iran came to the table.  Watch what he DOES, guy, not what he SAYS.  Sheesh...  

And if you believe Erdogan fought off a real coup attempt, you are far more naive than I thought you were.  THAT was the false flag.  He used it to crush dissent without world condemnation.

Well i don't know what you mean by 'you guy's' but the fact is that Trump is not the sharpest tool in the shed. In fact I'm beginning to wonder if he starting to understand that making a deal is more than just making money. You can't sell your enemy something they can copy and use against you. I hope you're right and Trump actions this better than he's communicated to all the relevant parties. 

Erdogan or rather Russia fought off the coup attempt. I don't think that the coup plotters factored that in. Erdogan used it to crush all forms of decent. I don't think that makes it any less or real just. Israel lost and America lost. He can afford to play tough and speak his mind against Israel and Europe but he must thread very carefully with the U.S. 

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Captain Risky
6 minutes ago, and then said:

Dictators have a habit of doing such heavy-handed things.  He is all-in, now.  It only gets worse for the civilians who aren't religious fanatics or willing to behave as if they are.  That's a damned shame because there are MANY, many good people in Turkey, just as in Iran.  

Yes i agree with you. Just to clarify i meant to say 40 million Kurds not Turks. 

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10 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

You can't sell your enemy something they can copy and use against you. I hope you're right and Trump actions this better than he's communicated to all the relevant parties. 

This is my point, in crystal clear hues.  You just give the man ZERO credit for all the good he's done for this country and the only way to explain that is by assuming that everything that is written and spewed about him in the public, is accurate.  Just like the Collusion accusations, there is no proof that he has shown himself to be traitorous or less than intelligent.  Just imagine ANY of the current crop of Progs that are running for the office to actually replace him.  It would lead to chaos in short order.  I have a feeling that regardless of whether he is reelected or not, the struggle to take him down will continue.  What they don't expect is the resistance that will form on the Right if he loses.  He could actually lead an insurrection from the sidelines, especially if the results seem tainted.  The difference is that those of us who would be willing to stand against the usurpers would require real proof and not CTs. 

BTW, that isn't a threat of impending Civil War.  No violence would be required to grind the country to a near halt and force the newly elected Prez to bend from their path.  The only way widespread violent resistance would occur is if the newby tried to crush 2A rights with an Executive order - or anything else other than the Constitutional Amendment provisions.  I don't think any of these idiots would actually risk that.  

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Captain Risky
2 minutes ago, and then said:

This is my point, in crystal clear hues.  You just give the man ZERO credit for all the good he's done for this country and the only way to explain that is by assuming that everything that is written and spewed about him in the public, is accurate.  Just like the Collusion accusations, there is no proof that he has shown himself to be traitorous or less than intelligent.  Just imagine ANY of the current crop of Progs that are running for the office to actually replace him.  It would lead to chaos in short order.  I have a feeling that regardless of whether he is reelected or not, the struggle to take him down will continue.  What they don't expect is the resistance that will form on the Right if he loses.  He could actually lead an insurrection from the sidelines, especially if the results seem tainted.  The difference is that those of us who would be willing to stand against the usurpers would require real proof and not CTs. 

BTW, that isn't a threat of impending Civil War.  No violence would be required to grind the country to a near halt and force the newly elected Prez to bend from their path.  The only way widespread violent resistance would occur is if the newby tried to crush 2A rights with an Executive order - or anything else other than the Constitutional Amendment provisions.  I don't think any of these idiots would actually risk that.  

Well i think as far as foreign policy goes this will define him as a president and rest the rumours either way. Lets see if he looks beyond his property portfolio in Turkey and does the right thing OR whether he capitulates. Personel i think he's not the right man for the office of POTUS. But he certainly has the opportunity to become the right person and and a leader. 

Civil war? Nah, like you i don't think thats a realistic nor would any sane man encourage it, especially in a democratic nation like America. 

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3 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

especially in a democratic nation like America. 

America was BORN out of the need for revolution.  Our Founders made provisions within their documented approach to our government the means and the template for "throwing off" an unresponsive or tyrannical government in the future.  The modern media complex is using propaganda and pseudo-events to bring our nation to its knees and when they reach a little too far or too fast all hell is going to break loose here.   Never forget that half the country hates their plans and a LOT of that percentage will willingly risk it all to stop it for their children's sake.  There would be no need to conquer the military or even local state governments.  All that would need be accomplished is to shut down the smooth function of commerce and tax collection.  

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DieChecker

I say let Turkey go. Cut em off. Good riddance. 

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Hammerclaw
3 hours ago, DieChecker said:

I say let Turkey go. Cut em off. Good riddance. 

I see the cup half full. Russia just sold one their latest weapon systems to an ally where we have one of our oldest and biggest bases. While crying foul, publicly, they'll be tearing one of those babies down at Incirlik. Only Russian greed out-paces their stupidity. 

Edited by Hammerclaw

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RabidMongoose
12 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

You're referring to the coup against him in 2016. Thanks for that interesting story about just how close Erdogans plane came to being downed.

True the coup has organised and executed by U.S. friendly forces in Turkey. The airforce, lock stock and barrel was with the coup plotters and their job was primarily to find Erdogan's plane and kill him in the air. Will the S-400 be able to do that if the planes are flying escort for Erdogans plane? Can the S-400  protect him form his own airforce? No they cannot because the next American backed coup will not make the same mistakes the first made nor can it predict when or where the next attempt will be. I think Erdogan and Turkey have leaked this excuse as justification for no sanctions or at the least the bare minimal. But moving way from American and European weapons and systems can. Remember it was Putin that had Erdogan's back and warned him a coup was in the process while his "allies" did not. All the pilots that took part in the coup were all trained on U.S. fighters in America. They were probably recruited there and the spiritual head they pledge allegiance to his based in Pennsylvania and protected by the C.I.A.

I think you should look towards the behaviour of Erdogan during the Syrian war as the reason he doesn't want the F-35 or American and NATO affiliation. 

America wanted the Assad's, Russian and Iranian clients, outta Syria and the 40 million Kurds in the region to change the status quo and shake up the region in the U.S. favour.

America and the Greater Middle East Plan moves on and Kurdistan will be its primary goal. Turkey knows this, Erdogan see's the writing on the wall and has convinced the military that this new path away from the West in a national struggle. Turkey is not a homogenous nation. Its ripe for the same treatment that befell the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and it benefits the West. Erdogan and the deep Turkish state know this and are now moving outta the orbit of America. 

I can see Erdogan's point in moving away. BUT pretending that Turkey is full of sunni Turks and no one else deserves rights, including 40 million Kurds is wrong. The U.S. and Trump need to see what this is and move to safeguard their interests otherwise Putin and Erdogan will chit all over American policy and interests. 

 

Why do so many of your posts contain distortions in them? 

At first I thought you were just desperately against Brexit, but the same pattern exists in all the topics you engage in. The US did not fund, sanction, or encourage in any way, a coup attempt in Turkey. Just because the forces that did the coup attempt were pro-US does not mean that Erdogan was anti-US or that the US was involved. Just because Turkey buys the S-400 does not mean they are breaking away from NATO. Get a grip. Turkey is close to Russia and both consider the Black Sea to be strategically important so it makes sense for Turkey to play geo-politics by building a good relationship with the Russians. After all, if Turkey is a customer then Russia wont behave aggressively against them out of fear of losing lucrative contracts.

For the poster who said F-35s are compromised then yes that is a possibility. Not only are their concerns about China sneaking in extra transistors into chips but the USA might very well have done the same. And as a lot of components come from the UK we might have added in our share too. As for plain old motherboards wouldnt it be interesting if extra transistors and transmitters were snuck into their insides? There seems to be an assumption that this cannot happen but of course it can. Transistors and transmitters can go inside of anything.

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Captain Risky
7 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Why do so many of your posts contain distortions in them? 

At first I thought you were just desperately against Brexit, but the same pattern exists in all the topics you engage in. The US did not fund, sanction, or encourage in any way, a coup attempt in Turkey. Just because the forces that did the coup attempt were pro-US does not mean that Erdogan was anti-US or that the US was involved. Just because Turkey buys the S-400 does not mean they are breaking away from NATO. Get a grip. Turkey is close to Russia and both consider the Black Sea to be strategically important so it makes sense for Turkey to play geo-politics by building a good relationship with the Russians. After all, if Turkey is a customer then Russia wont behave aggressively against them out of fear of losing lucrative contracts.

For the poster who said F-35s are compromised then yes that is a possibility. Not only are their concerns about China sneaking in extra transistors into chips but the USA might very well have done the same. And as a lot of components come from the UK we might have added in our share too. As for plain old motherboards wouldnt it be interesting if extra transistors and transmitters were snuck into their insides? There seems to be an assumption that this cannot happen but of course it can. Transistors and transmitters can go inside of anything.

I hate to disappoint you but America did plan and encourage a coup in Turkey in 2016. 

The S-400 has come to Turkey just days ahead of the Turkish coup attempt of July the 15th. Coincidence?  

Turkey is moving away from NATO and the West. Erdogan wants an independent Islamic Turkey without the security guarantees and the responsibilities that NATO provides. But it doesn't stop there... he also wants Turkeys economy away from the checks and balances of the Western world and realigned along the lines of Russia and China were political considerations takes precedent over the markets. 

America has nuclear weapons and bases in Turkey.

Turkey now has the ability to switch off all American operations in the area by switching on the S-400 and collecting data and even target American operations much like Russia does in Syria. America will be loathed to operate within the range of the data collecting S-400. Russia, is now entrenched in Turkey with such a system. They will see and know everything the Turks do. 

Effectively, the Turks have just told the Americans stay outta our region. 

 

Edited by Captain Risky

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RabidMongoose
6 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

I hate to disappoint you but America did plan and encourage a coup in Turkey in 2016. 

The S-400 has come to Turkey just days ahead of the Turkish coup attempt of July the 15th. Coincidence?  

Turkey is moving away from NATO and the West. Erdogan wants an independent Islamic Turkey without the security guarantees and the responsibilities that NATO provides. But it doesn't stop there... he also wants Turkeys economy away from the checks and balances of the Western world and realigned along the lines of Russia and China were political considerations takes precedent over the markets. 

America has nuclear weapons and bases in Turkey.

Turkey now has the ability to switch off all American operations in the area by switching on the S-400 and collecting data and even target American operations much like Russia does in Syria. America will be loathed to operate within the range of the data collecting S-400. Russia, is now entrenched in Turkey with such a system. They will see and know everything the Turks do. 

Effectively, the Turks have just told the Americans stay outta our region. 

With Turkey being located where it is, Russia is a strategically important nation to them. Russia has a navy base and naval forces in the Black Sea, it has operations going on in Syria (and so does Turkey) and it has an alliance with both Syria and Iran.

Therefore Turkey has to deal with the reality of the situation in its region. While it is a valued NATO member which houses NATO nuclear weapons and early warning radar bases, it also needs to neutralise Russia as a potential threat. What better way to do that than to be a customer of S-400 air defence systems.

It builds trust with Russia and ties them to Turkey with its weapon supply agreements preventing conflict. Your awareness of how nations undertake geo-political strategy is poor. And your paranoia in conspiracies not grounded in facts is funny.

You seem to think every country should revolve around the geo-political strategy of the USA otherwise they are a threat and enemy. Get a grip.

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Captain Risky
10 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

With Turkey being located where it is, Russia is a strategically important nation to them. Russia has a navy base and naval forces in the Black Sea, it has operations going on in Syria (and so does Turkey) and it has an alliance with both Syria and Iran.

Therefore Turkey has to deal with the reality of the situation in its region. While it is a valued NATO member which houses NATO nuclear weapons and early warning radar bases, it also needs to neutralise Russia as a potential threat. What better way to do that than to be a customer of S-400 air defence systems.

It builds trust with Russia and ties them to Turkey with its weapon supply agreements preventing conflict. Your awareness of how nations undertake geo-political strategy is poor. And your paranoia in conspiracies not grounded in facts is funny.

You seem to think every country should revolve around the geo-political strategy of the USA otherwise they are a threat and enemy. Get a grip.

Thats ridiculous.

Turkey has been protected from Russia for 60 years because Russia was a threat. Russia is still a threat. Both are natural enemies. Turkey now see's the United States as a bigger threat than Russia and wants to stop the U.S. from encouraging any more unwanted change in the Middle East by directly and indirectly influencing American actions. The S-400 complex is just one way to achieve this end.  

The American's want to progress Kurdish statehood and contain Turkish expansionism in the Middle East, North Africa and the Eastern Med and Aegean. 

The Turks subscribe to a Neo Ottomanism as its new foreign policy and America is trying to stop it. This self assertiveness by Erdogan to reclassify who Turkey's friends and allies are is the main problem. That is why America wants to remove him and why Erdogan doesn't trust American security guarantees for Turkey and the region.  

 

Edited by Captain Risky

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crookedspiral
5 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

Therefore Turkey has to deal with the reality of the situation in its region. While it is a valued NATO member which houses NATO nuclear weapons and early warning radar bases, it also needs to neutralise Russia as a potential threat. What better way to do that than to be a customer of S-400 air defence systems.

The whole of point of NATO is to ''neutralise Russia as a potential threat''. 

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2 hours ago, crookedspiral said:

The whole of point of NATO is to ''neutralise Russia as a potential threat''. 

Quite right and having Germany willingly place economic shackles on itself due to dependence on Russia energy is a sign that NATO has outlived its utility.

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RoofGardener
12 minutes ago, and then said:

Quite right and having Germany willingly place economic shackles on itself due to dependence on Russia energy is a sign that NATO has outlived its utility.

Oh hardly THAT, And Then. 

Anyway, there's always China to worry about :D 

Edited by RoofGardener

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16 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Oh hardly THAT, And Then. 

Anyway, there's always China to worry about :D 

Oh, I'd say exactly THAT, RG.  When the major player in such an alliance seems friendlier to the CAUSE for the alliance than the other members, it might be time to re-evaluate the need for the alliance going forward.  China may face its own economic collapse in the coming decade and they don't yet possess a blue water navy sufficient to threaten far beyond their shores nor an airforce that could accomplish more than a token action in such a mission.  In any circumstance, I don't imagine NATO would be up to much in helping the U.S. if China attacked our interests elsewhere in the world.

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Earl.Of.Trumps

America has to be careful here.  We have two airbases in Turkey now. What would it be like if our relations went south and Turkey kicks us out? What happens if war breaks out in the ME and Turkey does not like who we allied with, do they confiscate/shoot our planes?

I am sure Washington is looking at every angle but you never know. BTW, and then, in the article you opened with, one of the interviewees said that you really should not call Turkey an ally now. 

that's bad news.

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2 hours ago, Earl.Of.Trumps said:

America has to be careful here.  We have two airbases in Turkey now. What would it be like if our relations went south and Turkey kicks us out? What happens if war breaks out in the ME and Turkey does not like who we allied with, do they confiscate/shoot our planes?

I am sure Washington is looking at every angle but you never know. BTW, and then, in the article you opened with, one of the interviewees said that you really should not call Turkey an ally now. 

that's bad news.

We haven't really been able to trust them since Erdog made his intentions known.  A contractor who helped with our home renovation about 18 months ago has a son in the Airforce at Incirlik and rumors were going around even then that the base was on its last legs, time-wise.  

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