Boris Johnson to become PM

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, Captain Risky said:

Boris is a walking disaster for not just the Tories but more importantly your country. The by-election proves it. It proves that people are starting to doubt brexit and you want more proof?

So your basing it on one local by-election. hmm okay, but next time when you make bold statements make sure you can back them up.

[L.A.T.1961]

2 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

 At some point Labour will have to bite the bullet and chose a side . 

It might be too late for that. The Labour party MPs will be accessing their electoral chances and making their own plans, some will want to remove Corbyn before any election, some might decide to do a 'Chuka' and jump ship. 

I expect a party rebellion against Corbyn will be the next political event as the clock runs down towards the end of October. 

The by-election result only demonstrates again that the Tory's have no option but deliver brexit. The LIb Dem win has ironically made a no-deal exit more likely. 

[stevewinn]

7 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

It might be too late for that. The Labour party MPs will be accessing their electoral chances and making their own plans, some will want to remove Corbyn before any election, some might decide to do a 'Chuka' and jump ship. 

I expect a party rebellion against Corbyn will be the next political event as the clock runs down towards the end of October. 

The by-election result only demonstrates again that the Tory's have no option but deliver brexit. The LIb Dem win has ironically made a no-deal exit more likely. 

The EU have painted themselves into a corner, nowhere to turn without losing face. don't be surprised when Parliament returns after the recess that remainer MP's resign the whip followed by a GE, this then allows the EU to offer concessions because of the GE. (EU saves face) The UK still leaves the EU but with alterations to the WA. UK delivers Brexit EU gets the WA through "smooth Brexit" follows.

[Duke Wellington]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Corbyn as failed miserably as Labour leader. and re-fused to call a no confidence vote when encouraged by the Lib Dem leader. He doesn't fancy his chances.

He is one of those annoying things that people get when they go to the toilet. Whats it called? A hang-on.

His MPs failed to get rid of him, he failed to win a General Election, all the delusional reasoning occurred trying to make out he had done well, and sadly he has a shock coming.

Will it be the final nail in the Corbyn coffin? I hope not, I hope they keep the incompetent moron as leader for decades so that we can get a good solid streak of right wing leadership.

[L.A.T.1961]

6 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

The EU have painted themselves into a corner, nowhere to turn without losing face. don't be surprised when Parliament returns after the recess that remainer MP's resign the whip followed by a GE, this then allows the EU to offer concessions because of the GE. (EU saves face) The UK still leaves the EU but with alterations to the WA. UK delivers Brexit EU gets the WA through "smooth Brexit" follows.

I expect Brussels will wait until the last minute and then suggest talks and a delay would be needed for them to take place.

The thing is could Boris sell this as a win or would it appear as going back on the do or die promise to leave on time.

I doubt that the EU would accept reopening the WA and so selling the EU's approach for talks as a win would be impossible. 

It would though take some of the blame off Brussels as they could claim they pushed for more negotiations. Which would be a significant reason behind the suggestion of last gasp talks. 

 

[stevewinn]

1 minute ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

I expect Brussels will wait until the last minute and then suggest talks and a delay would be needed for them to take place.

The thing is could Boris sell this as a win or would it appear as going back on the do or die promise to leave on time.

I doubt that the EU would accept reopening the WA and so selling the EU's approach for talks as a win would be impossible. 

It would though take some of the blame off Brussels as they could claim they pushed for more negotiations. Which would be a significant reason behind the suggestion of last gasp talks. 

 

even though i entertain these possibilities at the end of the day i want out on the 31st Oct. But i'd make one last offer, offer the EU a FTA. 

[hetrodoxly]

13 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

even though i entertain these possibilities at the end of the day i want out on the 31st Oct. But i'd make one last offer, offer the EU a FTA. 

Out on the 31st, it doesn't matter if there's a deal in place by then we make it when we're out,a better position to make it from because we've already left with no chance of us staying.

[Duke Wellington]

45 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

Out on the 31st, it doesn't matter if there's a deal in place by then we make it when we're out,a better position to make it from because we've already left with no chance of us staying.

I predict the EU will interfere at the end with something along the lines of:

`We will give you the Free Trade Agreement you want on condition of a 2nd referendum`

Edited August 3, 2019 by RabidMongoose

[RAyMO]

43 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

I predict the EU will interfere at the end with something along the lines of:

`We will give you the Free Trade Agreement you wont on condition of a 2nd referendum`

if they did that they would be almost guaranteed that leave would win. so cant see it. 

Their policy is almost set anyway. France won't agree another extension, did not want to give one the last time, so barring something major in the UK parliament we leave on the 31st. All models from EU perspective show UK hit much harder than any individual EU country. even germany more concerned with China than Brexit. Only Ireland is causing them concern. So they will subsidise Ireland, and wait for the call from the UK. 

ETA then 2-5 years to get agreement.

Edited August 3, 2019 by RAyMO

[Duke Wellington]

2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

if they did that they would be almost guaranteed that leave would win. so cant see it. 

Their policy is almost set anyway. France won't agree another extension, did not want to give one the last time, so barring something major in the UK parliament we leave on the 31st. All models from EU perspective show UK hit much harder than any individual EU country. Only Ireland is causing them concern. So they will subsidise Ireland, and wait for the call from the UK. 

As Brexit Day approaches and a Hard-Brexit seems more likely then exchange rates for GBP and EURO are going to plummet. The reason being is many investors will be too worried about the risk to their investment when keeping UK and European shares in their portfolios

The USA is going to benefit the most, the Dow Jones will continue reaching new heights and it will help secure Trump re-election who is 60% favourite at the bookies already. Here in the UK and EU investors will wait until stability and a clear picture of the new landscape emerges before they start putting their money back into our economies again.

I expect a German recession led by declining sales of cars, cpus, graphics cards, and consumer electronics. I expect Spain to continue to boom as tourists from outside the EU flock in for cheap late summer holidays. It might include Greece too which they deserve after the 10 years of hell they have had.

I expect the UK to avoid a short-term recession as the weak pound buffers its companies against competition from cheap imports and boosts export sales to the USA.

[RAyMO]

10 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

As Brexit Day approaches and a Hard-Brexit seems more likely then exchange rates for GBP and EURO are going to plummet. The reason being is many investors will be too worried about the risk to their investment when keeping UK and European shares in their portfolios

The USA is going to benefit the most, the Dow Jones will continue reaching new heights and it will help secure Trump re-election who is 60% favourite at the bookies already. Here in the UK and EU investors will wait until stability and a clear picture of the new landscape emerges before they start putting their money back into our economies again.

I expect a German recession led by declining sales of cars, cpus, graphics cards, and consumer electronics. I expect Spain to continue to boom as tourists from outside the EU flock in for cheap late summer holidays. It might include Greece too which they deserve after the 10 years of hell they have had.

I expect the UK to avoid a short-term recession as the weak pound buffers its companies against competition from cheap imports and boosts export sales to the USA.

all very good except that the low pound impact on exports is already fading and will continue to fade according to the BoE due to he deterioration in global markets. It is this global impact that germany and others are most cognisant of and it will impact post Brexit experiences of the UK - negatively. Like the hard Brexiteers here the EU believe it will be other side that will fold first after Brexit. 

 

who is right only time will tell

Edited August 3, 2019 by RAyMO

[stevewinn]

2 hours ago, RAyMO said:

if they did that they would be almost guaranteed that leave would win. so cant see it. 

Their policy is almost set anyway. France won't agree another extension, did not want to give one the last time, so barring something major in the UK parliament we leave on the 31st. All models from EU perspective show UK hit much harder than any individual EU country. even germany more concerned with China than Brexit. Only Ireland is causing them concern. So they will subsidise Ireland, and wait for the call from the UK. 

ETA then 2-5 years to get agreement.

All models from a EU perspective shows the UK hit much harder, well of course the models are going to show that, when did the soviet union ever announce a failed harvest  or downturn in the economy. the illusion has to hold.

Let's just think about this. German industry is in the deepest slump since the global financial crisis and threatens to push Europe’s powerhouse economy into full-blown recession Meanwhile, EU prepared to collapse trade with its largest trading partner, the UK. Makes sense?

I'd much rather be going into Brexit with our economic performance than any of the other EU big 3 economies.

Go fetch your Bank of England predictions.

Now compare.

• France 1.3%
• Germany 0.5%
•  Italy 0.1%,
•  UK predicted to grow what was it? 1.3%.
• World Growth 3.2%
• Eurozone growth 1.2%

Now in your own time explain that to me.

Also, while you've got your BoE figures to hand why have they forecast 2.3% growth for the UK outside of the EU.

2 hours ago, RAyMO said:

all very good except that the low pound impact on exports is already fading and will continue to fade according to the BoE due to he deterioration in global markets. It is this global impact that germany and others are most cognisant of and it will impact post Brexit experiences of the UK - negatively. Like the hard Brexiteers here the EU believe it will be other side that will fold first after Brexit. 

 

who is right only time will tell

A lower pound helps exports.

But hang on, The £ pound on parity with the Euro isn't that what you want, its what all Europhiles want its like us being in the Euro. don't tell me your complaining because of the low pound,(oh its gone back up now) treat that as a snap shot of what it would be like if the UK would've signed up to the Euro.

Anyway all this talk lets get trade deals signed around the world, get a free trade agreement with the worlds superpower signed, a proper Union, ditch the union of 27 states where half of them cant even afford British goods anyway. and sign up to 50 states. boosting the UK economy by 0.5% to 0.7% per year.

 

[stevewinn]

Germany have left their trading fate in the hands of EU Commissioners determined to show pain to the UK. Their approach of WA or No Deal exit has cast the die to a no deal exit, a avoidable impact on Germany and potential EU recession.

ECB already spent 2.1Trillion bailing the Eurozone out and its heading back into recession, can Germany and its people afford to bailout the EU once more as a £50Billion Brexit shock hits their economy just as £15Bn black hole opens in the EU budget.

The ship is sinking, cut the bloody ropes.

 

[Duke Wellington]

5 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

It might be too late for that. The Labour party MPs will be accessing their electoral chances and making their own plans, some will want to remove Corbyn before any election, some might decide to do a 'Chuka' and jump ship. 

I expect a party rebellion against Corbyn will be the next political event as the clock runs down towards the end of October. 

The by-election result only demonstrates again that the Tory's have no option but deliver brexit. The LIb Dem win has ironically made a no-deal exit more likely. 

We dont want a rebellion against Corbyn.

We want that moron to stay at the helm of the Labour Party for the next 20 years lol.

[Unusual Tournament]

7 hours ago, stevewinn said:

So your basing it on one local by-election. hmm okay, but next time when you make bold statements make sure you can back them up.

It’s an important time in British history and this by-election is a window into the changes going on in your country. If you wanna pretend that people don’t have doubts and don’t change their minds then fine, live in that world. 

[Unusual Tournament]

7 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

It might be too late for that. The Labour party MPs will be accessing their electoral chances and making their own plans, some will want to remove Corbyn before any election, some might decide to do a 'Chuka' and jump ship. 

I expect a party rebellion against Corbyn will be the next political event as the clock runs down towards the end of October. 

The by-election result only demonstrates again that the Tory's have no option but deliver brexit. The LIb Dem win has ironically made a no-deal exit more likely. 

Well to me at least Labour are doing no different than what the Tories were doing and running down the clock. At some point Boris and the Tories will have to successfully sell their Brexit in a truthful manner or they will be trounced at the elections just like they got hammered in the Welsh by-election. 

Could Labour remove their leader? Sure they could but this policy of Corbyn’s, watching and waiting for the Tories to self harm themselves is working better than any for or against Brexit. But it’s important to remember that the people voted to leave. They have obviously changed their minds but it’s a decision that needs to be allowed to die naturally and Boris, ERG, DUP are helping along nicely.

Corbyn has shown he’s sensible by not taking extremes and he’s willing to give Brexit back to the people. Boris was a godsend for remain and I bet at some late stage Labour will back another referendum. Or I’m wrong and Corbyn is the biggest tool in the shed.

[Duke Wellington]

14 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

Well to me at least Labour are doing no different than what the Tories were doing and running down the clock. At some point Boris and the Tories will have to successfully sell their Brexit in a truthful manner or they will be trounced at the elections just like they got hammered in the Welsh by-election. 

Could Labour remove their leader? Sure they could but this policy of Corbyn’s, watching and waiting for the Tories to self harm themselves is working better than any for or against Brexit. But it’s important to remember that the people voted to leave. They have obviously changed their minds but it’s a decision that needs to be allowed to die naturally and Boris, ERG, DUP are helping along nicely.

Corbyn has shown he’s sensible by not taking extremes and he’s willing to give Brexit back to the people. Boris was a godsend for remain and I bet at some late stage Labour will back another referendum. Or I’m wrong and Corbyn is the biggest tool in the shed.

What country do you live in?

Its not the UK is it?

[RAyMO]

4 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Also, while you've got your BoE figures to hand why have they forecast 2.3% growth for the UK outside of the EU.

BoE figures have been based on smooth brexit - which includes a transition period of 2 years and an FTA, as officially the government claims its preferred outcome is a deal.  BoE quite clearly states that in the event of a no deal, growth will be very much slower.

Edited August 3, 2019 by RAyMO

[stevewinn]

10 hours ago, RAyMO said:

BoE figures have been based on smooth brexit - which includes a transition period of 2 years and an FTA, as officially the government claims its preferred outcome is a deal.  BoE quite clearly states that in the event of a no deal, growth will be very much slower.

But growth nonetheless, and at 2.3% growth. higher than when in the EU.

It will not have escaped your attention to detail.

• France 1.3%
• Germany 0.5%
•  Italy 0.1%,
• Eurozone growth 1.2%

All below UK growth. EUtopia seems to be having a little trouble. I'd like to see an update on ALL the models you mentioned when taking into account the figures of today. a figure greater than 0.5% would see Germany into negative figures and possibly full on recession dragging the Eurozone along with it. Are we sure the EUs figures can be trusted.

 

[RAyMO]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Germany into negative figures and possibly full on recession dragging the Eurozone along with it.

True and ironically largely due to its relatively higher trade volumes outside of the EU. As for Italy recessions are a national pass-time. In France the impact of yellow coat demonstrations have not fully worked through the economic system but have been factored into the 2019 projection. Outside of the three you named it was interesting to read how well the vast majority of the other EU counties were doing

 

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Are we sure the EUs figures can be trusted.

As sure as I am that the BoE figures can be trusted, besides there are other reports which look from an external viewpoint at both UK and EU figures which tends to keep things 'honest'.

[RAyMO]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

But growth nonetheless, and at 2.3% growth. higher than when in the EU.

The projection of the the BoE assumes smooth Brexit, transition and FTA. So politically outside EU, but with no significant change to UK/EU trading arrangements.

[stevewinn]

3 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

True and ironically largely due to its relatively higher trade volumes outside of the EU. As for Italy recessions are a national pass-time. In France the impact of yellow coat demonstrations have not fully worked through the economic system but have been factored into the 2019 projection. Outside of the three you named it was interesting to read how well the vast majority of the other EU counties were doing

 

As sure as I am that the BoE figures can be trusted, besides there are other reports which look from an external viewpoint at both UK and EU figures which tends to keep things 'honest'.

ECB already purchased 2.5Trillion of member debt. QE stopped in January. This 2.5Trillion was meant to provide a stimulus, 8 months later and the QE taps are about to be turned on again. 2.5Trillion and heading for a recession. As we all know the Eurozone hinges not on the small countries but the big 3 and the big three are in trouble. big time.

 

[stevewinn]

Just now, RAyMO said:

The projection of the the BoE assumes smooth Brexit, transition and FTA. So politically outside EU, but with no significant change to UK/EU trading arrangements.

Like i said, proves the BoE sees the benefits of being out of the EU than in.

• The BoE is posting figures of 1.3% in the EU with all the benefits of single market/customs union.
• The BoE is posting figures of 2.3% out of the EU with FTA.

Can you post me a linkt to the BoE page where your getting your information.

 

[RAyMO]

6 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Like i said, proves the BoE sees the benefits of being out of the EU than in.

• The BoE is posting figures of 1.3% in the EU with all the benefits of single market/customs union.
• The BoE is posting figures of 2.3% out of the EU with FTA.

Can you post me a linkt to the BoE page where your getting your information.

 

various sources but this one will be what you are after https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/august-2019

[stevewinn]

11 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

various sources but this one will be what you are after https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/august-2019

Where's the part on forecasts. not on inflation but on GDP growth.

Edited August 4, 2019 by stevewinn