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RavenHawk

Recession!

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RavenHawk

So the markets today are tanking on fears of a recession.  I suppose that this makes Progs giddy.  But the simple fact is that inversions are cyclic.  Every President has dealt with a recession.  The key isn’t that a recession occurred, but how a President reacted.  Under Obama, it was near disastrous for the nation.  I suspect that Trump will handle it much better.  This time next year, we won’t notice the recession.

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Dark_Grey

The threshold for a recession is pretty low, IIRC. It's a scary word but it simply means the markets have been down for two quarters, I think. The 2008 recession was caused by banks scheming to tank the housing market and profit off the losses. It seemed to work well for them, considering they still got Gov't bonuses.

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acute

It's not "cyclic" at all!

Every time we have seen an inverted yield curve, a recession has followed.

 

Edited by acute
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RavenHawk

10-year treasury note yields fell below 2-year notes (Inversion).  This has been a reliable indicator for the past 80 years or so for a recession to take place in the next year.  This is the cause of the selloff today.  This doesn't mean there will be one, but recent memory views recessions as strictly negative rather than just an easing of the economy so it can get a second wind.  If you are in the market, and had the spare cash, I'd say buy...

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aztek
4 minutes ago, acute said:

It's not "cyclic" at all!

Every time we have seen an inverted bond yield curve, a recession has followed.

did it stay there, or went back up after a while?  i'll tell you it recovered to dive again later, so it IS cyclic, 

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RavenHawk
4 minutes ago, acute said:

It's not "cyclic" at all!

Every time we have seen an inverted bond yield curve, a recession has followed.

That’s pretty cyclic.

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Tatetopa
30 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

So the markets today are tanking on fears of a recession.  I suppose that this makes Progs giddy.  But the simple fact is that inversions are cyclic.  Every President has dealt with a recession.  The key isn’t that a recession occurred, but how a President reacted.  Under Obama, it was near disastrous for the nation.  I suspect that Trump will handle it much better.  This time next year, we won’t notice the recession.

Well, yes indeed they are cyclical.  

Second part, you might check on Obama's record.  As much as you might hate him, the stock market went up over 100%, hardly a catastrophe.  Not everything Obama did was great, but stock market history is pretty impartial.  Forbes quoted below is hardly a Prog rag.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/06/12/can-trump-beat-obamas-stock-market-returns/#381dbeb4c888

President Trump touts record Dow Jones Industrial prices whenever there is a new high (and also when it makes the same high even a year later) and views the stock market as a barometer of his Presidency. The markets performed very well from when he was elected to his first year in office, but has been essentially flat since then. It appears investors were looking forward to the tax cut but have not rewarded Trump or the market with higher prices for over 16 months.

For this analysis the S&P 500 is being used since it represents a broader view of the market and more information is available for it.

Obama’s market increased 113% over his eight years

The stock market had been in free fall a few months before President Obama’s election until just over a month after he took office. It then went on an extended run increasing 113% from his election day until the day Trump was elected. It was also up 42% in his first four years in office.

So far, it does not appear President Trump is handling it much better.  The tax cuts have worked their magic and may not be much of a factor going forward.  Tariffs and trade wars have put the world economy in a slow down.  That hurts American Industry as well.  Farmers are getting $16 billion in handouts  (socialism?) in the best economy in years.

It all began with tariffs on steel and aluminum.  That should have been terrific for US steel companies.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/08/12/nucors_founder_predicted_long_ago_that_tariffs_would_kill_steel_103851.html

The steel industry should have listened to the founder of Nucor. In 1986, Ken Iverson pointed out that protectionist measures to save the American steel industry had not had the desired effect. He pointed out that only competition - from outside the United States and from emerging U.S companies like his own - could force the industry to compete. Unfortunately, the dinosaurs of steel had other ideas.

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/07/31/how_is_the_tariff_working_out_for_the_us_steel_industry_110463.html

 

U.S. Steel, one of America's largest metal makers, just announced it'll idle two blast furnaces in the coming months. That could put hundreds of workers out of a job.   

The announcement is just the latest indication that President Trump's 25 percent tariff on steel imports may have unintended consequences. 

When the president announced the tariff in March 2018, he predicted the taxes on foreign steel imports—taxes that Americans, not foreigners, must pay—would "help our domestic steel industry to revive idled facilities, open closed mills, preserve necessary skills by hiring new steel workers, and maintain or increase production."  

The tariff failed for two main reasons. First, they raised production costs for thousands of companies ranging from auto manufacturers to oil and gas firms. Many companies scaled back their expansion plans and therefore had less need for steel products, whether foreign or domestic.

Second, the trade war has cooled the global economy, depriving U.S. steel plants of export opportunities.

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acute
3 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Ken Iverson

Ken Inversion.

:w00t:

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ExpandMyMind

If the economy is good then it's all down to Trump, but if there's an economic recession then it's just how it goes, and probably even Obama's fault come to think about it. It's just a coincidence that this recession hit just as Trump's policies, such as tax breaks for the ultra wealthy and trade wars galore, have had time to make an impact. There's no way they couldn't have anything to do with it at all.

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RavenHawk
47 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Second part, you might check on Obama's record.  As much as you might hate him, the stock market went up over 100%, hardly a catastrophe.  Not everything Obama did was great, but stock market history is pretty impartial.  Forbes quoted below is hardly a Prog rag.

Do you know why the market went up under Obama?  He devalued the dollar with Quantitative Easing.  It was a great short-term stimulus but it has long-term detriments.  This is why we’ve seen the wild rides in the market since Trump took over.  The market has been recovering from QE.  And I think Trump has been maneuvering the market to roll with a future recession.

So far, it does not appear President Trump is handling it much better.  The tax cuts have worked their magic and may not be much of a factor going forward.  Tariffs and trade wars have put the world economy in a slow down.  That hurts American Industry as well.  Farmers are getting $16 billion in handouts  (socialism?) in the best economy in years.

He’s handling it well.  Unlike Obama, Trump is looking long-term.  Subsidizing farmers at this time is not Socialism.  It is bolstering the weak part of the line on the battlefield.

The steel industry should have listened to the founder of Nucor. In 1986, Ken Iverson pointed out that protectionist measures to save the American steel industry had not had the desired effect. He pointed out that only competition - from outside the United States and from emerging U.S companies like his own - could force the industry to compete. Unfortunately, the dinosaurs of steel had other ideas.

Except that’s not what we have.  China is manipulating the market.  That’s not competition.  Once China is defeated, then we’ll see worldwide competition grow.  Until then, we need to tighten our belts.

The announcement is just the latest indication that President Trump's 25 percent tariff on steel imports may have unintended consequences. 

What are the unintended consequences of allowing China to run amok?

The tariff failed for two main reasons.

Who said it has failed?  That would be equivalent of saying that the Doolittle raid in WWII failed and we should have surrendered.  WWII lasted 3 more years.

 

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Tatetopa
2 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

Who said it has failed?  That would be equivalent of saying that the Doolittle raid in WWII failed and we should have surrendered.  WWII lasted 3 more years.

 

 

The article said it failed .  That would be realenergy .org.  I think it is based on the fact that steel stocks are not doing well this year and some furnaces are being shut down.

2 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

What are the unintended consequences of allowing China to run amok?

I suppose some financial writers believe that there were better ways to keep China from running amok.  At some point you either believe that people that spend their lives in study of a certain field may know something, or you believe Donald Trump knows more about everything than the rest of humanity.

2 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

Subsidizing farmers at this time is not Socialism.  It is bolstering the weak part of the line on the battlefield.

Man that is a stretch for someone who hates socialism.  Why not just assume they were poor businessmen and let them fail.  Survival of the fittest.  If China is going to buy their Ag products from Russia and Brazil, we don't need all of that excess production anyway.

Obama made some really poor choices as most presidents have, but he or his administration did some good things as well.

Donald Trump has done some stupid things and some good ones.  If you maintain that he is the messiah, you will be disappointed or be forced to leave reality behind I think. 

I am really not sure how much planning he does past his own administration.  When told his tax cuts would lead to a future growing budget deficit, he was reported to say, "I won't be around then."

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RavenHawk
18 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

The article said it failed .  That would be realenergy .org.  I think it is based on the fact that steel stocks are not doing well this year and some furnaces are being shut down.

Then the author of the article doesn’t know what he is talking about.  That author gives up to easily.  This is only beginning.  The opening salvos.

 

I suppose some financial writers

Some.

 

believe that there were better ways to keep China from running amok. 

Like?  If there were any better, then why haven’t they been used already?  China has been allowed to get away with it for a long time.  So long that kinder and gentler ways will be useless.

 

At some point you either believe that people that spend their lives in study of a certain field may know something,

And people that do spend their lives in study of a certain field are almost always split in opinion.

 

or you believe Donald Trump knows more about everything than the rest of humanity.

There are three things that Trump has that the rest of humanity doesn’t.  He does have good instincts, he has the will to lead, and he *IS* President.

 

Man that is a stretch for someone who hates socialism.  Why not just assume they were poor businessmen and let them fail.  Survival of the fittest. 

Because that is not the situation here.  The farmer are front-line soldiers and need the support of the state.  They are not fighting this on their own.

 

If China is going to buy their Ag products from Russia and Brazil, we don't need all of that excess production anyway.

We’ll always have a market for our food.  Does Russia produce enough for export to China?  How soon would it be till Brazil is stripped clean?  China out produces everybody else in almost everything and it all goes back to feeding their population and that is still not enough.

 

Obama made some really poor choices as most presidents have, but he or his administration did some good things as well.

Anything good he’s done is overshadowed by his attempt to usurp the Constitution (Fundamental Transformation).  His legacy is all but gone.  Can you remind me why he received a Pulitzer and for what?

 

Donald Trump has done some stupid things and some good ones. 

At least he has tried to improve this country and not tried to turn it into a Socialist Democracy.  It’s really not about how many stupid things (or not) he’s done, but his intentions and abilities.

 

If you maintain that he is the messiah, you will be disappointed or be forced to leave reality behind I think. 

I’m not the one making him out to be the messiah.  You are doing that.  I think he is just simply the right person, at the right time, in the right position to do the best for the country.  He has already accomplished a lot.  The question will be if we can maintain those policies and make them permanent?

 

I am really not sure how much planning he does past his own administration. 

He’s spent his life planning for this (maybe not as President).  He is very intuitive in such matters.

 

When told his tax cuts would lead to a future growing budget deficit, he was reported to say, "I won't be around then."

He’s heard that fear mongering before and that’s his typical response.  The idea is to raise GDP to surpass budget needs.  Then work on reducing the budget.  Over regulating business raises the budget and cuts revenue.

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Tatetopa
7 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

Then the author of the article doesn’t know what he is talking about.  That author gives up to easily.  This is only beginning.  The opening salvos.

 

 

 

In all fairness to an author of a financial article, the person can only report on what has happened so far.  That is not giving up.

It may be only the beginning, but Financial journals write on current state and make predictions based on the present.   

7 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

I’m not the one making him out to be the messiah.  You are doing that.  I think he is just simply the right person, at the right time, in the right position to do the best for the country.  He has already accomplished a lot.  The question will be if we can maintain those policies and make them permanent?

Not me bub.  He is a salesman, a self promoter, and an aggressive businessman.  I do not think he is the messiah nor the antichrist, just a reality TV hero trying to cope with the real world.

Either he is totally lying to the American Public or he does not know how tariffs work. 

If he wants us on his side, he should be more like you and say we need to tighten our belts to prevail against China in the long run.  He should not say that China is going to pay for it, the American people will.

Same as the wall, the American taxpayer is paying for it, not Mexico.  If Mexico loses money, that money id gone, it does not magically flow into tax payer's pockets.

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RavenHawk
36 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

In all fairness to an author of a financial article, the person can only report on what has happened so far.  That is not giving up.

Then it is poor writing.  This is Trump’s Kennedy’s “not because they are easy” moment or FDR’s “all we have to fear” moment.

 

It may be only the beginning, but Financial journals write on current state and make predictions based on the present.   

Then you can’t describe it as failed.  Only after Trump is out of office can you determine if it failed (or when China dictates terms).

 

Not me bub. 

You’re the one using the term.

 

He is a salesman, a self promoter, and an aggressive businessman. 

And?  Those would seem to be the needed qualities right now.

 

I do not think he is the messiah nor the antichrist,

That’s a good beginning.

 

just a reality TV hero trying to cope with the real world.

I think he’s doing more than just coping.  He is on top of events, almost willing them to bend to his command (as much as any human can).  This scares the Progs, MSM, never-Trumpers and the like.

 

Either he is totally lying to the American Public or he does not know how tariffs work. 

Or he knows very well how they work and he wields it like a master.  Trump is better at using the tariff than a carrier group.

 

If he wants us on his side, he should be more like you and say we need to tighten our belts to prevail against China in the long run. 

I believe he has told us to tighten our belts.  He doesn’t treat the people like Deplorables, needing our hands held and every little detail explained.  Those that don’t understand now never will so how are they ever going to be on his side?

 

He should not say that China is going to pay for it, the American people will.

Perhaps he should explain that ultimately, China will pay but this is something petty that the MSM has latched onto to spread confusion.  If it’s not this, then it would be something else.

 

Same as the wall, the American taxpayer is paying for it, not Mexico. 

Initially, we are paying for it, but again, ultimately Mexico will reimburse the American people.  This is just another deflection by the MSM.  They really think that the American people are stupid.  That’s what they don’t understand. 

 

If Mexico loses money, that money id gone, it does not magically flow into tax payer's pockets.

Their internal problems are no worry for us unless it crosses the border.  No, it won’t magically flow into tax payer’s pockets.  It just depends on how much Mexico is willing to lose.  Progs can only comprehend that money is a finite object.  A nation’s wealth is fluid and renewable.  The people don’t pay.

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Tatetopa
2 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

Then it is poor writing.  This is Trump’s Kennedy’s “not because they are easy” moment or FDR’s “all we have to fear” moment.

 

FDR said that to the nation in his radio messages.

Kennedy said it in a broadcast speech.

Twitter tot the select followers is not uniting the American people.

 When you start behaving like a cult you risk cutting  yourself off from Constitutional, Real America., and you are getting close to that with comments like:

2 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

I believe he has told us to tighten our belts.  He doesn’t treat the people like Deplorables, needing our hands held and every little detail explained.  Those that don’t understand now never will so how are they ever going to be on his side?

You talk a heck of a lot about battle lines and you are going to write off 30-40% of the country because we don'y know the secret handshake?

Are we in this as a country or separate factions? 

 

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lost_shaman
On 8/14/2019 at 2:06 PM, acute said:

Every time we have seen an inverted yield curve, a recession has followed.

After 18 months and a ~ 15%  jump in the markets.

Edited by lost_shaman
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toast
On 8/14/2019 at 8:29 PM, RavenHawk said:

Under Obama, it was near disastrous for the nation.  I suspect that Trump will handle it much better. 

It appears that you are a member of the ECC (Economy Creationism Community) and believe that economy was created 32 months ago..

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RavenHawk
6 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

FDR said that to the nation in his radio messages.

And Washington spoke to the nation through the newspaper.  If you didn’t buy a paper, you heard about it at the meeting house or the general store.

 

Kennedy said it in a broadcast speech.

Not everyone would tune to the same channel and not all channels would broadcast the same thing.  Many would read about it in the paper or over radio because TV was a fad.

 

Twitter tot the select followers is not uniting the American people.

I’m not on twitter yet I seem to know what’s going on.  I utilize multiple sources.  Most people do.  The MSM try to howl him down but he still reaches the nation.  Most people see through the joke known as the MSM.  The medium changes as time goes by.  One just needs to know how to use it effectively.  People that are used to older forms don’t trust new means of communication.

 

 When you start behaving like a cult you risk cutting  yourself off from Constitutional, Real America., and you are getting close to that with comments like:

And that is what the Progs, MSM, never-Trumpers, etc. have done.  They have cut themselves off.  They have talked down to and ignored Real America.  Their concern has nothing to do with the Constitution, except its end.

 

You talk a heck of a lot about battle lines and you are going to write off 30-40% of the country because we don'y know the secret handshake?

I’m not writing off anyone.  It’s they that are doing it to themselves.  There is no secret here.  Their loyalties are clear.

 

Are we in this as a country or separate factions? 

That’s a question for the Progs.  They are still hung up on collusion.  It’s past time to move forward and focus on the needs of the country.  They are the ones missing the train.  Their dream of a Social Democracy is going to have to take a back seat for a while.

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RavenHawk
7 hours ago, toast said:

It appears that you are a member of the ECC (Economy Creationism Community) and believe that economy was created 32 months ago..

Nope, no such membership.  I believe that our economy started with Plymouth Colony.  I guess that is debatable??  It didn’t start because of Obama, it started despite him.  Do you understand the tendency of a rubber ball that is held underwater?  It will continue to try to reach the surface.  Under Obama, our economy was very much like that.  After Dodd-Frank had kicked the legs out from under it, Obama held it down and kept calling it the new normal.  In order for Fundamental Change to occur and bring about a Social Democracy, one has to control the economy and make it dependent on government policy.  OHilary was going to take over from Obama to ensure this happened by killing off manufacturing and not let it naturally morph through market forces.

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Desertrat56
On 8/14/2019 at 12:46 PM, Dark_Grey said:

The threshold for a recession is pretty low, IIRC. It's a scary word but it simply means the markets have been down for two quarters, I think. The 2008 recession was caused by banks scheming to tank the housing market and profit off the losses. It seemed to work well for them, considering they still got Gov't bonuses.

Yes and half of my 401 K dissapeared. 

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and then
18 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

I’m not writing off anyone.  It’s they that are doing it to themselves.  There is no secret here.  Their loyalties are clear.

The divide has indeed become stark, jarring.  The nation was built on the concept of compromise between interests but the ultimate interest had always been THE COUNTRY.  I don't see that being true today in the Democrat Party.  They've actually bought into Socialism and globalist goals and are actively working to take this nation down from within.  2020 may be our last election for quite awhile. 

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Desertrat56
3 minutes ago, and then said:

The divide has indeed become stark, jarring.  The nation was built on the concept of compromise between interests but the ultimate interest had always been THE COUNTRY.  I don't see that being true today in the Democrat Party.  They've actually bought into Socialism and globalist goals and are actively working to take this nation down from within.  2020 may be our last election for quite awhile. 

It isn't true in the Republican party either.  Neither party cares about THE COUNTRY, they all care about Money and control of resourses and Power, and as far as they are concerned we are their slaves.

Edited by Desertrat56
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and then
10 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

Obama held it down and kept calling it the new normal.  In order for Fundamental Change to occur and bring about a Social Democracy, one has to control the economy and make it dependent on government policy. 

EXACTLY!  Trump's business acumen notwithstanding, almost any leader that was willing to remove the shackles and regulatory uncertainties from this economy, were going to watch it explode.  Rational investors had pulled back and were waiting out the storm Obama created.  

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and then
Just now, Desertrat56 said:

It isn't true in the Republican party either.  Neither party cares about THE COUNTRY, they all care about Money and control of resourses and Power, and as far as they are concerned we are their slaves.

I agree that neither party has the best interests of the citizens at heart.   When I vote "R" it's simply because they are the lesser of two evils IMO.  A party that is hell-bent on limiting 2A and ramming social engineering down my throat isn't one I'd ever support.  It's funny, when I was growing up I was a news geek and loved to watch the political games.  I actually had respect for leaders in both parties because they would often reach across the aisle and create progress when it was needed.  This extreme polarization is hurting the country and I don't think they're willing to compromise at all any longer.

In fact, it seems to be the trend everywhere on the planet these days.  I have an app on my phone called RED ALERT that chimes and gives locations in Israel when rockets are inbound into Israeli communities.  I just got NINE alerts in about 5 seconds.  It's almost like something evil is growing these days.  I've never seen anything like it.

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Desertrat56
9 minutes ago, and then said:

I agree that neither party has the best interests of the citizens at heart.   When I vote "R" it's simply because they are the lesser of two evils IMO.  A party that is hell-bent on limiting 2A and ramming social engineering down my throat isn't one I'd ever support.  It's funny, when I was growing up I was a news geek and loved to watch the political games.  I actually had respect for leaders in both parties because they would often reach across the aisle and create progress when it was needed.  This extreme polarization is hurting the country and I don't think they're willing to compromise at all any longer.

In fact, it seems to be the trend everywhere on the planet these days.  I have an app on my phone called RED ALERT that chimes and gives locations in Israel when rockets are inbound into Israeli communities.  I just got NINE alerts in about 5 seconds.  It's almost like something evil is growing these days.  I've never seen anything like it.

Are you blaming the democrats for those missle strikes?  Or what is your point?  The world has gone mad, and it is all because of greed and governments being run by corporations.  And believe it or not when Reagan was president the republicans were the ones trying to take our guns away.  And social engineering is going on daily by the media, that has nothing to do with politics, it has to do with corporations controlling our minds.  Yeah, I realize I accused the corporations of ruining everything you are complaining about twice.  If you turn your television off and put your phone in a drawer for one week you will have a completely different perspective.

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