Recession!

[spartan max2]

On the personal finances subreddit this guy posted how he pulled all his money out of stocks in 2015 in anticipation of a recession. He has still been waiting lol

I don't think we have one happening anytime soon. I'd say a few more years. 

[RavenHawk]

33 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

It isn't true in the Republican party either.  Neither party cares about THE COUNTRY, they all care about Money and control of resourses and Power, and as far as they are concerned we are their slaves.

I agree but the Republican Party has been the lesser of two evils and I still hold out hope.  We have to be able to start somewhere to take this country back.  I’m a registered Republican but I consider myself a Constitutional Conservative.  I’m a fiscal Conservative when it comes to the economy.  A Hawk when it comes to defense.  And a bit liberal or libertarian when it comes to social issues.  I think that if you truly care about this nation, its wealth and prosperity, and the people, this is the basic stance one should have.  And there would still be room for disagreement.  Most people of both parties do not fall into this category.  But the Rinos are of some use.  It’s this stance that I believe most American’s shared in the first Century of its existence, then by the 1910s a deviation began.  It was a worldwide movement to counter the Age of Enlightenment.  Obama and OHilary was the latest incarnation of this deviation.

[Tatetopa]

3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

It’s past time to move forward and focus on the needs of the country. 

If we can get to that point RavenHawk, we will be greater still.

 

3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

And that is what the Progs, MSM, never-Trumpers, etc. have done.  They have cut themselves off.  They have talked down to and ignored Real America.  Their concern has nothing to do with the Constitution, except its end.

I suppose it comes down to what Real America is.  Is it support of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and a just government that dispenses even handed justice to all of its citizens?  Is it being a world leader in human rights and technology and personal freedom?   Is it a government that stays out of its citizen's lives as much as possible and stays apart from various religious beliefs?  Then there are a lot of us that would support that.

Do progressives do a very good job of emulating behavior in line with those ideal?  I don't think so.  Do conservatives?  Not always.  Greed and self interest and fear play a role in the behavior of both sides.

[Tatetopa]

2 hours ago, and then said:

EXACTLY!  Trump's business acumen notwithstanding, almost any leader that was willing to remove the shackles and regulatory uncertainties from this economy, were going to watch it explode.  Rational investors had pulled back and were waiting out the storm Obama created.  

Exactly what?  Rational investors made a ton of money during the Obama administration.  The stock market went up over 100%

2007- 2008 was a hard pill to swallow for many investors.  Like Desertrat56 I lost about half the value of my 401k.

Bailouts started under Bush and continued under Obama.  Lowering the interest rate and having the Fed by back govt. bonds seemed to have helped as well according to financial writers.  Auto companies paid back loans by 2015. 

It wasn't a ball being held underwater, the market was on a continuous rise.  It took an uptick when Trump was elected and has since  has flattened out or grown slowly.  President Trump is still in office, and he is likely to have a second term, so his legacy is not written yet.  Maybe he will surpass Obama stock market rise of 113%.  Right now President Trump has seen a 29% market gain in nearing 2 1/2 years in office.  He needs to average a bit over 14% a year to beat Obama.

National debt?  Not going to be eliminated as promised.  Currently is it growing at a pretty good clip.

Growth has averaged about 2 1/2% , it needs to be in the 4-6% range to fulfill promises of paying the debt.

Does the President have more tricks up his sleeve?  Maybe.

The FED could cut interest rates, but there would be nothing left to cut if the market does slow.  Unemployment is about as low as it is going to go.  

We can "beat " China in the trade war?  Maybe maybe not.  And if we beat them and their economy tanks, everybody else in the world that sells to them takes a hit and so do we.  We sell to everybody in the world.  If our dollar is strong and their economies are weak, they don't buy as many American goods.  

Right now, rational investors are having  the jitters.  The US is still the safest place to park money, but sometimes that is in bonds and not stocks.

 

 

[ExpandMyMind]

15 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

On the personal finances subreddit this guy posted how he pulled all his money out of stocks in 2015 in anticipation of a recession. He has still been waiting lol

I don't think we have one happening anytime soon. I'd say a few more years. 

It definitely appears to be happening soon.

[Buzz_Light_Year]

De-globalization is what is happening......

 

[+Desertrat56]

7 hours ago, ExpandMyMind said:

It definitely appears to be happening soon.

We might be in the middle of it  if you pay attention.  Or the beginning was last year.  Or we never left the recession that happened in 2008.  The indicator is not Dow Jones, it is how well you can live on the money you earn.  Do you live better now than you did in 2008?  Do you struggle more with bills that seem to go up every year at a higher percentage than your salary goes up?  Those are the real indicators.  Unplug from the bull ****t machine and turn your brain on.  Don't rely on talking heads to tell you whether we are in a recession, judge it for yourself.

[Tatetopa]

1 hour ago, Desertrat56 said:

We might be in the middle of it  if you pay attention.  Or the beginning was last year.  Or we never left the recession that happened in 2008.  The indicator is not Dow Jones, it is how well you can live on the money you earn.  Do you live better now than you did in 2008?  Do you struggle more with bills that seem to go up every year at a higher percentage than your salary goes up?  Those are the real indicators.  Unplug from the bull ****t machine and turn your brain on.  Don't rely on talking heads to tell you whether we are in a recession, judge it for yourself.

Well said.  That is the measure that is most important for the average person.  

I think back to my own childhood.  It was comfortable.  My mom didn't work.  With the exception of one or two friends whose moms were doctors,. moms didn't work to support a middle class income.  No so today.

[Doc Socks Junior]

I had to laugh at the hilarious excuse for Obama's stock market improvement from @RavenHawk: quantitative easing,  Which is apparently bad for the market long term.  One has to wonder, of course, why Trump literally asked the Fed for quantitative easing several months ago.

You heard first from @RavenHawk, folks, Trump is trying to ruin the market like Obama did.

4D CHESS. A REAL LEADER.

 

[Tatetopa]

President Trump's top financial advisers are hitting TV to say there is no recession in sight.  It might be good to keep in mind that Larry Kudrow said the same thing in 2007 about the Bush economy.

Consumer confidence is very important, so maybe their goal is just to keep people optimistic.

We are most fortunate that President Trump had a change of heart  and now only cares about doing a good job while serving the American people.

As a businessman, he would have played up how well his business was doing, maybe even lied about it, liquidated and stashed as much as he could and left the creditors holding the bankruptcy bag.  He did that three times I think.

Good thing he is not the old Trump.

 

 

[Gromdor]

5 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

President Trump's top financial advisers are hitting TV to say there is no recession in sight.  It might be good to keep in mind that Larry Kudrow said the same thing in 2007 about the Bush economy.

Consumer confidence is very important, so maybe their goal is just to keep people optimistic.

We are most fortunate that President Trump had a change of heart  and now only cares about doing a good job while serving the American people.

As a businessman, he would have played up how well his business was doing, maybe even lied about it, liquidated and stashed as much as he could and left the creditors holding the bankruptcy bag.  He did that three times I think.

Good thing he is not the old Trump.

 

 

A recession is not a terrible thing if you are well enough off to not be living paycheck to paycheck.  When it hits, it's the little people that lose their homes and property.  These can be purchased by those with money for a greatly discounted price.  My brother-in-law for example bought a foreclosed house shortly after 2008.  It doubled in value again when the recession was over.

Granted a lot of foreign investors purchased property in the US when this happened as well, but hey, that's capitalism.

[+Desertrat56]

15 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

President Trump's top financial advisers are hitting TV to say there is no recession in sight.  It might be good to keep in mind that Larry Kudrow said the same thing in 2007 about the Bush economy.

Consumer confidence is very important, so maybe their goal is just to keep people optimistic.

We are most fortunate that President Trump had a change of heart  and now only cares about doing a good job while serving the American people.

As a businessman, he would have played up how well his business was doing, maybe even lied about it, liquidated and stashed as much as he could and left the creditors holding the bankruptcy bag.  He did that three times I think.

Good thing he is not the old Trump.

 

 

That reminds me of a conversation I had with a co-worker in the early 90's.  She said something about the economy being strong and I said she didn't know what she was talking about.  She asked how I judged the economy and I told her I judge how strong the economy is doing based on how well I can live on the salary I earn.  It was a double edged comment as she was the personnel director and knew I was being paid less than half industry standard for my job.  But even in the 90's the economy was bad and it has never improved over the years.  Salaries almost always raise less than half the percentage of inflation.  And if you think you know what the inflation rate is based on the talking heads you need to do some of your own calculations.  Gas prices fluctuate depending on politics so you can't use that as a yardstick, but you can use the cost of housing, toilet paper and food as good yardsticks. 

[Tatetopa]

RavenHawk will be happy to know that the president is tweeting about Fed interest rate cuts and Quantitative Easing.

When Obama did it ,QE was a dastardly, underhanded deed to trick the economy into growth.  When President Trump does it, it will be because he is brilliant at business and it was his plan all along. 

 If economists and the Fed resist it, then BANG!  The President washes his hands of the recession because somebody else is at  fault.   Brilliant.

[RavenHawk]

On 8/16/2019 at 2:44 PM, Tatetopa said:

If we can get to that point RavenHawk, we will be greater still.

If it was just the old Democrat vs Republican gridlock, then I would be confident in meaningful compromise to make the country great.  But as long as Progressivism is so intertwined in our system, it will not be satisfied until it controls everything, government, corporate, individual lives.  And it is from that plants the seeds of fear and corruption.

 

I suppose it comes down to what Real America is.  Is it support of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and a just government that dispenses even handed justice to all of its citizens?  Is it being a world leader in human rights and technology and personal freedom?   Is it a government that stays out of its citizen's lives as much as possible and stays apart from various religious beliefs?  Then there are a lot of us that would support that.

I think this is too general but shows promise.  In the general, there is room to debate the details, but I would agree.  Especially that first part.  The Constitution as written was meant to be revolutionary but Progressives see it as evolutionary.  And that is very dangerous to our culture.

 

Do progressives do a very good job of emulating behavior in line with those ideal?  I don't think so.  Do conservatives?  Not always.  Greed and self interest and fear play a role in the behavior of both sides.

Yes, it affects both sides but the source emanates from the Progressives (Socialism).  Government is imperfect because the people who run it are imperfect.  And when you impose a sterile ideal of perfection by relinquishing individual rights then you garner death and destruction (the basis of human existence over the past 5000+ years).  The Constitution was supposed to be the next step of Human evolution, not government control.

[RavenHawk]

On 8/17/2019 at 11:09 AM, Desertrat56 said:

We might be in the middle of it  if you pay attention.  Or the beginning was last year.  Or we never left the recession that happened in 2008.  The indicator is not Dow Jones, it is how well you can live on the money you earn.  Do you live better now than you did in 2008?  Do you struggle more with bills that seem to go up every year at a higher percentage than your salary goes up?  Those are the real indicators.  Unplug from the bull ****t machine and turn your brain on.  Don't rely on talking heads to tell you whether we are in a recession, judge it for yourself.

I am doing better than I was in 2014.  I actually have been getting almost real raises for the last two years.  I am dealing with debt better.

[+Desertrat56]

21 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

I am doing better than I was in 2014.  I actually have been getting almost real raises for the last two years.  I am dealing with debt better.

Me too, but only because I have a better job that pays better.  If I was living on my previous salary, I would be doing about the same or a little worse as I am now paying more for a mortgage.

[RavenHawk]

22 hours ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

I had to laugh at the hilarious excuse for Obama's stock market improvement from @RavenHawk: quantitative easing,  Which is apparently bad for the market long term.  One has to wonder, of course, why Trump literally asked the Fed for quantitative easing several months ago.

You heard first from @RavenHawk, folks, Trump is trying to ruin the market like Obama did.

4D CHESS. A REAL LEADER.

 

That’s no excuse.  That is the only reason the market did well, because devaluing of the dollar by printing money.  What’s hilarious is that there is someone that doesn’t understand that.

 

You can talk about something all you want, that doesn’t mean it will be implemented.  Sometimes, Trump will just tweet about something to gage the response.  QE can be a useful tool; it just depends on how it is used.  Obama over used it to cripple the economy (can’t out-right destroy it).  If Trump uses it, it will be limited in scope and probably as a reaction to the world markets.

 

If you pay any attention to Trump’s policies and their real effects rather than listening to MSM talking points, Trump is doing everything to unleash this economy.  Obama never had a clue in how to do that.

[Hankenhunter]

On 8/16/2019 at 12:33 PM, RavenHawk said:

I agree but the Republican Party has been the lesser of two evils and I still hold out hope.  We have to be able to start somewhere to take this country back.  I’m a registered Republican but I consider myself a Constitutional Conservative.  I’m a fiscal Conservative when it comes to the economy.  A Hawk when it comes to defense.  And a bit liberal or libertarian when it comes to social issues.  I think that if you truly care about this nation, its wealth and prosperity, and the people, this is the basic stance one should have.  And there would still be room for disagreement.  Most people of both parties do not fall into this category.  But the Rinos are of some use.  It’s this stance that I believe most American’s shared in the first Century of its existence, then by the 1910s a deviation began.  It was a worldwide movement to counter the Age of Enlightenment.  Obama and OHilary was the latest incarnation of this deviation.

You really have an active imagination. Gunning for king of conspiracy theories?

[Gromdor]

1 hour ago, RavenHawk said:

That’s no excuse.  That is the only reason the market did well, because devaluing of the dollar by printing money.  What’s hilarious is that there is someone that doesn’t understand that.

 

 

 

You can talk about something all you want, that doesn’t mean it will be implemented.  Sometimes, Trump will just tweet about something to gage the response.  QE can be a useful tool; it just depends on how it is used.  Obama over used it to cripple the economy (can’t out-right destroy it).  If Trump uses it, it will be limited in scope and probably as a reaction to the world markets.

 

 

 

If you pay any attention to Trump’s policies and their real effects rather than listening to MSM talking points, Trump is doing everything to unleash this economy.  Obama never had a clue in how to do that.

 

No offense, but if "doing everything to unleash this economy" just ends in a recession, then I'll take Obama and his "sabotage" that grew the economy any day of the week.

[Doc Socks Junior]

3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

That’s no excuse.  That is the only reason the market did well, because devaluing of the dollar by printing money.  What’s hilarious is that there is someone that doesn’t understand that.

What was the economy like in 2008, chief?  Was it doing well?  

3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

You can talk about something all you want, that doesn’t mean it will be implemented.  Sometimes, Trump will just tweet about something to gage the response.  QE can be a useful tool; it just depends on how it is used.  Obama over used it to cripple the economy (can’t out-right destroy it).  If Trump uses it, it will be limited in scope and probably as a reaction to the world markets.

Heh.  Of course.  When Obama did it = bad.  If Trump uses it = good.  You're unbelievable.  It won't kill you to admit Trump is contradicting himself.  Go ahead.  This is a safe space. You can be honest.

3 hours ago, RavenHawk said:

If you pay any attention to Trump’s policies and their real effects rather than listening to MSM talking points, Trump is doing everything to unleash this economy.  Obama never had a clue in how to do that.

 

I'm paying attention to Trump's own words.  Hey, you can argue against him if you want.  But you'd have to put down the Kool-Aid.

[Black Red Devil]

Trump can kiss his 2020 election chances goodbye if the US goes into recession.  The Democrats will lambaste him throughout the whole 2020 Electoral Campaign and remind everyone that his trade war with China was an economic disaster which brought the nation into a recession.  His Presidency has been a disaster riddled with scandals and corruptions, he failed to achieve most 2016 promises and has also managed to distance the US from historical allies and given up ground to Russia and China. 

The only thing going for him has been the Economy so far.  With that gone he'll have no chance.

[kobolds]

The National debt increase year after year, none of the presidents able to push it down. all just talk.

 

Edited August 20, 2019 by kobolds

[RavenHawk]

15 hours ago, Gromdor said:

No offense, but if "doing everything to unleash this economy" just ends in a recession, then I'll take Obama and his "sabotage" that grew the economy any day of the week.

Well, that was the point.  There isn’t going to be a recession (not because of an inversion).  This inversion was just a fluctuation.  The Never-Trumpers got a hold of it and spooked the market.  It was a “reliable indicator”.  The market is susceptible to roomer.  This is at least the 5^th time now that has happened??  The Progs are active in trying to crash the economy and it just ends up stronger than before.  I think rather than looking at something like QE to tap the breaks, I think Trump is willing to accept these bumps in the road.  They serve his purpose to keep the economy roaring.  Just in the last two days, about half of the losses from last week have been made up.  I guess my rubber ball under water analogy went over your head??  Our economy is buoyant like that ball.  Its tendency is to rise no matter what.  But averaging below 3% per quarter growth is not really growth, it is stagnancy.  Every President in recent history has dealt with a recession.  They all did what was needed to end the recession quickly.  They all did that but Obama who purposely kept in down because he had to punish the American people for being the best.  White America is the source of all evil in the world and must be made to pay and all that other racist garbage.  That mentality is on notice.  No more “you didn’t build that”.

[+Desertrat56]

7 minutes ago, RavenHawk said:

Well, that was the point.  There isn’t going to be a recession (not because of an inversion).  This inversion was just a fluctuation.  The Never-Trumpers got a hold of it and spooked the market.  It was a “reliable indicator”.  The market is susceptible to roomer.  This is at least the 5^th time now that has happened??  The Progs are active in trying to crash the economy and it just ends up stronger than before.  I think rather than looking at something like QE to tap the breaks, I think Trump is willing to accept these bumps in the road.  They serve his purpose to keep the economy roaring.  Just in the last two days, about half of the losses from last week have been made up.  I guess my rubber ball under water analogy went over your head??  Our economy is buoyant like that ball.  Its tendency is to rise no matter what.  But averaging below 3% per quarter growth is not really growth, it is stagnancy.  Every President in recent history has dealt with a recession.  They all did what was needed to end the recession quickly.  They all did that but Obama who purposely kept in down because he had to punish the American people for being the best.  White America is the source of all evil in the world and must be made to pay and all that other racist garbage.  That mentality is on notice.  No more “you didn’t build that”.

I still think we are still in the recession that happened in 2008.  The stock market is not a valid indicator because it is constantly manipulated just like the gas prices.

[Gromdor]

14 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

I still think we are still in the recession that happened in 2008.  The stock market is not a valid indicator because it is constantly manipulated just like the gas prices.

I don't think so.  My 401k (which was halved with Bush) went right back up with Obama.  I still lost the time for it to recover, but it recovered.  My pay went up steadily as well but a big chunk still went towards healthcare.  My home and other properties doubled in value as well.

I won't lie though,  the "little people" don't ever recover.  Debt stays.  They just lose every recession.  The more money and assets you have the better your recovery.  The rich actually profit from the recession cycle.  It lets them buy cheap and sell high.  It's the reason why their wealth increased the most during Obama (and Trump as well).