Government to ask Queen to suspend Parliament

[+OverSword]

9 hours ago, toast said:

By a hard Brexit the UK will lose a duty&tax free market with 450M customers and its very unlikely that such change will not have a negative impact on UK`s economy.

Or on the EU's, since tarrifs can work in both directions perhaps the EU might (desperately) want to make a deal, and fast, at that point.

[Cookie Monster]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

I think if Boris is unable to get backing in Parliament for an election, then when these MP's pass legislation to block no Deal Brexit thinking they are all big and clever - Boris with the Privy council will return to the Queen and advise her not to give royal assent to the Bill and thus prevent the Bill becoming Law. in effect vetoing it. - and before the democracy deniers fall out of their pram. Its been done before plenty of times. Their Great white hope Tony Blair when PM done so with MP's vote on the Iraqi War.

I find it Funny, the EU doesn't want us to leave. Remainer MP's dont want us to leave. So, they want to pass a Law which says we cannot leave the EU without a Deal. the EU not wanting us to leave simply doesn't give us or offer us a deal, so by Law we don't Leave. and Remain MP's think this is a good strategy.

 

And we remain stuck exactly where we are at the moment until the end of the next extension.

[hetrodoxly]

18 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/lords-turn-prepared-100-hour-debate/

 

I was just listening to a professor on YT who's saying the exact same thing, there's no time for it to go through the lords on the grounds pro Brexit lords will talk it out, he also suggested Boris intended this to happen.

[Cookie Monster]

Winning 35% of the vote during a General Election gives a party a decent ruling majority in the House of Commons.

Not only has Parliament seized control of Brexit but I predict that tonight they will block a General Election. The reason? Traitorous MPs do not want a No-Deal Government with a decent majority.

So they will violate our Democracy by not taking us out of the EU, and will violate it by stopping a General Election. What a shady Banana Republic we have become.

Edited September 4, 2019 by RabidMongoose

[+OverSword]

6 hours ago, RAyMO said:

and Trump's support for Brexit (to weaken the EU) 

What are you talking about?  Brexit happened before trump was elected despite obama threatening England with dire (hollow) consequences should they leave.  TDS.

[stevewinn]

3 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

And we remain stuck exactly where we are at the moment until the end of the next extension.

surely there cannot be another extension. what's the point. thanks to the remainer MP's no incentive for the EU to give us a deal, because if they do we leave. if they dont we remain.

Need to get out on 31st October.

All these delays are costing us. £1Bn a month. (paying the EU) put that into perspective, the head of the NHS says the NHS needed an extra £4Billion a year. If MP's extend our (Not) leaving to January 31st. that's £3Billion that could have went to the NHS. and the other £5billion for the previous months March to October could have been spent here in the UK. £8billion handed over to the EU since March 29th. (when we should have left)

 

 

 

 

[Setton]

2 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

I think its time for Boris to go back to the Queen.

And get that Parliament prorogued today.

Doesn't work like that. 

Stop being a snowflake and accept defeat. 

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

I think if Boris is unable to get backing in Parliament for an election, then when these MP's pass legislation to block no Deal Brexit thinking they are all big and clever - Boris with the Privy council will return to the Queen and advise her not to give royal assent to the Bill and thus prevent the Bill becoming Law. 

Yeah, good luck with that, snowflake. 

[Setton]

Losing again:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49557734

[toast]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

How much do we benefit from this Customs Union. less than 1% since our membership of it. and that according to a German study.

Dont know what German study you are talking about but I think you are pretty wrong here because >40% of all UK products are exported into the EU. Ok, Brexit will not down that rate to zero but even a 10-20% decrease of exports would be a painful impact on the UK economy.

Quote

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).

www.parliament.uk

 

Quote

But you also forget the other Price we pay, to get this 1% benefit we pay 0.7% of GDP, So, in reality we accept Brussels rule for 0.3%. and a £80 to £100Billion trade deficit

In Q2 2019 the UK GDP was at 512B£, which will be (hopefully) 2048B£ in total in 2019. 2048B£ x 0,3% = 61,4B£ lets call it EU-share. In 2018, the UK-EU trade deficit was at 56B£. Maybe the Brexit will save the UK ca. 62B£ EU-shares but on the other hand, a 10-20% decrease in EU exports would burn ca. 30-60B£ . If the Brexit was meant to save money, it was a very faulty calculation because import/export duties will cause a decrease in imports/exports numbers, to the disadvantage of UK`s GDP. In addition, lower export rates means less production., less GDP and a reduced domestic purchasing power and thats only the begin of the whole chain which is a very long one.

 

[stevewinn]

1 minute ago, Setton said:

Doesn't work like that. 

Stop being a snowflake and accept defeat. 

Yeah, good luck with that, snowflake. 

2016 Referendum.

 

36 minutes ago, OverSword said:

So why did they put leave to a referendum?  Most of them obviously were for staying and after all, they know better, right?  Are they all knowing geniuses or too afraid to offend the public by doing they're job?  You can't have it both ways I think.  The big mistake they made was thinking that they could propagan...er I mean, educate the public into seeing it their way when it came to brexit but the public already had enough of Europe and not enough were persuaded to change their minds.

exactly, They where happy handing over the decision making to the public via the Ref, when they thought they'd win. having lost, and the people not voting in the right way, they've done the 101 of politics, drag it out, condition the population over time until they can reverse the result. MP's think we are to be led bu the nose.

MP's fancy their chances in a GE more than another Referendum. in fact their terrified of holding a second referendum. because where do they turn with two defeats?

Great to hear Nigel Farage / Brexit Party saying they wont stand against the Tories in a GE if Boris fights on leaving on October 31st. So no chance of splitting the vote. wonder if we could see a GE result of Tory win with a Majority and a handful of Brexit MP's.

Bring it on.

Brilliant the way Boris sacked the 20 MP's who voted against the Govt, wont be selected to stand for the Tory party in the coming Election. in fact if they stand in the same constituency they'll be contesting seat against the Tory party.

Boris has to fight this election focusing on how the Remainers want to hand everything back to Brussels.

 

 

[Setton]

Will of the people, was it? 

 

[Setton]

1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

2016 Referendum.

Exactly. Thank you for highlighting your last 3 years of hypocrisy. 

[toast]

52 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Or on the EU's, since tarrifs can work in both directions perhaps the EU might (desperately) want to make a deal, and fast, at that point.

You didnt watched the news since, lets say, 2014?

[+OverSword]

11 minutes ago, toast said:

You didnt watched the news since, lets say, 2014?

I suppose not.  Explain?

[hetrodoxly]

46 minutes ago, Setton said:

Will of the people, was it? 

 

Everyone wants a deal, no one as ever said any different, but not at any cost, it's got to include the reason why we voted to leave, take back control of our boarders, negotiate our own trade deals, make our own laws. 

[stevewinn]

4 minutes ago, toast said:

Dont know what German study you are talking about but I think you are pretty wrong here because >40% of all UK products are exported into the EU. Ok, Brexit will not down that rate to zero but even a 10-20% decrease of exports would be a painful impact on the UK economy.

 

In Q2 2019 the UK GDP was at 512B£, which will be (hopefully) 2048B£ in total in 2019. 2048B£ x 0,3% = 61,4B£ lets call it EU-share. In 2018, the UK-EU trade deficit was at 56B£. Maybe the Brexit will save the UK ca. 62B£ EU-shares but on the other hand, a 10-20% decrease in EU exports would burn ca. 30-60B£ . If the Brexit was meant to save money, it was a very faulty calculation because import/export duties will cause a decrease in imports/exports numbers, to the disadvantage of UK`s GDP. In addition, lower export rates means less production., less GDP and a reduced domestic purchasing power and thats only the begin of the whole chain which is a very long one.

 

The EU's own study done By Michel Barnier before we knew who he was, in which by their own admission the EU benefited its members by 2%. a Germany study done broke it down for individual countries, in which they found the UK benefited by 0.9% (but i rounded it up to 1%)

This is the misconception, somehow people believe EU customs Union is a massive benefit, bare in mind the UK benefits by 0.9%. Canada and the EU trade deal is to benefit, Canada by 0.3% and the EU by 0.2%

But getting back to the UK. trade with the EU accounts for 12% of UK GDP, So, if we see a 10% reduction in trade with the EU, or even a 20% reduction as you claim with your £30Bn to £60Bn. Yet in all this you neglect the most important question in all this. What percentage % of UK trade under WTO with the EU will fall in the Tariff bracket of 0% to 5%. (for example the average tariff. EU exports to the UK would be approximately 4.1% while that for UK exports to the EU would be 5.7%) (according to the BBC)

Once you find the answer to these questions you'll find the numbers do little to make a convincing argument.

And this is the blinkered approach by those who think the EU and its customs union is the only game in town. Stockholm syndrome.

 

 

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, Setton said:

Will of the people, was it? 

 

Still quoting polls, Bless. As you should know better than anyone quoting polls doesn't make it so.

Lets cast our minds back to pre-Referendum. the week of the referendum. All the polls had Remain winning. You woke up on the morning of the 24th with a different reality. how well did that turn out for you? been blubbering ever since.

 

 

 

[Cookie Monster]

2 hours ago, Setton said:

Doesn't work like that. 

Stop being a snowflake and accept defeat. 

Yeah, good luck with that, snowflake. 

It works any way the Queen wants it too.

She is the Commander in Chief, not Parliament.

[stevewinn]

Philip Hammond let slip to Boris Johnson that to days Bill had been drafted with help from the Commission Legal Services.

 

 

[Cookie Monster]

1 hour ago, Setton said:

Will of the people, was it? 

 

Congratulations on finding some valid statistics.

We need to be cautious of three things before assuming peoples views on Brexit will mirror their voting in a General Election. The first is that leavers who are right-wing are less inclined to vote for the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats. How `less inclined` we wouldnt know until exit polling is revealed.

The second point is that there has been no positive campaigning for a Hard Brexit. This would change during a General Election once the Brexit Party enters the debate. This will give the public a more rounded understanding of the impacts of a Hard-Brexit. This is important because the YouGov poll only shows opposers as being 6% ahead of supporters. A 6% lead is in no way shape or form safe.

The final point is while a slight majority in that poll might not want a Hard-Brexit, they were giving their logical opinion. Come polling day Brexit emotions will be running higher, especially after Farage has elicited a misty eyed Great Britain nostalgia in the public. Will enough of them go for it? Will enough of them throw caution to the wind?

Most of your posts are driven by emotion not logic, so you will understand.

[Setton]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Still quoting polls, Bless. As you should know better than anyone quoting polls doesn't make it so.

Says the guy who was posting them obsessively during the EU elections... 

[Setton]

38 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

Congratulations on finding some valid statistics.

We need to be cautious of three things before assuming peoples views on Brexit will mirror their voting in a General Election. The first is that leavers who are right-wing are less inclined to vote for the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats. How `less inclined` we wouldnt know until exit polling is revealed.

The second point is that there has been no positive campaigning for a Hard Brexit. This would change during a General Election once the Brexit Party enters the debate. This will give the public a more rounded understanding of the impacts of a Hard-Brexit. This is important because the YouGov poll only shows opposers as being 6% ahead of supporters. A 6% lead is in no way shape or form safe.

The final point is while a slight majority in that poll might not want a Hard-Brexit, they were giving their logical opinion. Come polling day Brexit emotions will be running higher, especially after Farage has elicited a misty eyed Great Britain nostalgia in the public. Will enough of them go for it? Will enough of them throw caution to the wind?

Most of your posts are driven by emotion not logic, so you will understand.

Were not talking about how people will vote in a general election. We're talking about the will of the people, which you claim to support. 

Here it is, black and white. Now, will you support it or will you admit the act was only ever a means to an end? 

[Cookie Monster]

11 minutes ago, Setton said:

Were not talking about how people will vote in a general election. We're talking about the will of the people, which you claim to support. 

Here it is, black and white. Now, will you support it or will you admit the act was only ever a means to an end? 

Will you support a General Election?

Put your money where you mouth is.

[Cookie Monster]

The moves going on tonight will result in a General Election or 2nd Referendum with No-Deal missing off the ballot paper.

Thats a stitch up. They should have No-Deal, Deal, Stay, if it happens. And when that gets returned there will once again be no majority for anything. Round and around we go.

There is another tactic Boris can yet take - get the EU to kick us out for violating some of its rules.

Edited September 4, 2019 by RabidMongoose

[L.A.T.1961]

 

No deal consequences reduced and with continued preparation would reduce further say's BoE Mark Carney. 

"Mr Carney told MPs that preparations made since the central bank's last estimate in November have softened its worst-case scenario."

"Better border preparations, a temporary deal for financial services companies to access UK markets, and a deal on the market for financial insurance products, have all been put in place since November, he told the Treasury Select Committee." - "The impact of that has been to reduce the worst case scenario predictions."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49585799