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DarkHunter

Aramco facilities on fire in Saudi Arabia

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Dumbledore the Awesome

well that's no more than you'd expect from a bellicose nut like Lindsey graham is it. Is he really trying to suggest they should start a major war (I somehow don't see the Mad Mullahs of Tehran (TM)  not regarding such an action as a provocation for a major war) on behalf of the oil industry of plucky little Saudi Arabia, that bastion of democracy and civil rights? 

Edited by Dumbledore the Awesome
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Gromdor

Well, I guess I should go and fill up my tank.  I'm thinking gas prices will be heading up.

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Setton
3 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

The Houthis already said they were behind the attack and long range ground launched cruise missile debris has been found at the attacked facilities.

Well, they would, wouldn't they? They also claimed the 14 May attack. 

Not like Iran wants anyone going round broadcasting that they've got parts of the Iraqi state attacking KSA. 

Quote

More then likely the early reports of drones were wrong and this was largely or completely a large cruise missile strike.

If you say so. I'm not remotely convinced. 

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and then
6 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Saudi Arabia is claiming that they will begin production again at the facilities in a few days but losing approximately 42% of their oil production is without a game changer both in the conflict with Yemen and strategically on a global scale.  

More then likely a complete blockade is one of the few things that can be done that would have an effect.  It wouldnt defeat the Houthis but it would cripple their ability to do any further attacks.

My understanding is that without Iranian cash and weapons, the Houthis would have been defeated long ago.  IF that's accurate then interdiction of the supply line would bring them to the negotiating table relatively quickly.  

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and then
6 hours ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

Say what you like about the Houthis (and I'm sure the people who regularly discuss the Houthis were experts on the Houthis long before any of the rest of us had ever heard of them), they seem to have cost-effective warfare down to a T.  To find and hit their target successfully over such a distance with what are essentially radio-controlled model planes is pretty impressive in anyone's book. I suppose they're virtually undetectable to radar, but to fly them that far? Seems a tall order. Most probably they were despatched from somewhere a lot nearer, surely. 

It looks more like a cruise missile strike.  This is definitely an escalation and Iran is behind it.  Shutting down or even intermittently interrupting the oil supply could cause complications for the Houthis in Yemen.  They might well find themselves subject to international action like a blockade until they stop attacking oil infrastructure.  I just hope U.S. troops don't get pulled into it.

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and then
5 hours ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

Is he really trying to suggest they should start a major war (I somehow don't see the Mad Mullahs of Tehran (TM)  not regarding such an action as a provocation for a major war)

You give Iran far too much credit for their ability to make war in a "major" way.  It's true that they could create a formidable blood sponge on their own soil but they have nearly ZERO ability to project power in a sustained way.  

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Captain Risky
19 hours ago, Sir Smoke aLot said:

They wanted war and it seems that they got it. In years of indiscriminate bombing of Yemeni civilians they haven't found a way to resolve the situation and now there is growing risk for Saudi civilians, if Houtis decide to target them that is. I am not sure if i could blame them. God knows how many families were destroyed in Yemen so far...

Now it will effect us. Higher oil prices at the pump. 

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Captain Risky
2 hours ago, and then said:

You give Iran far too much credit for their ability to make war in a "major" way.  It's true that they could create a formidable blood sponge on their own soil but they have nearly ZERO ability to project power in a sustained way.  

They seem to be doing fine in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and now Yemen. 

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bmk1245

Don't discount russians on that matter. I'm sure, Houtis get supplied not only by Iran, but by russians as well, since russia (whos economy is in decline) benefits from high oil prices.

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bmk1245
2 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

They seem to be doing fine in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and now Yemen. 

Well, Israel "combs" iranian heads in Syria with shrapnel...

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and then
2 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

They seem to be doing fine in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and now Yemen. 

Since they face no organized resistance in any of those places I'm not sure how you'd consider that "projecting power in a sustained way".  Also, I think the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon might disagree with you about "doing fine".  Iranians seem to get special targeting when Israel knows where they are :tu:

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Captain Risky
1 minute ago, and then said:

Since they face no organized resistance in any of those places I'm not sure how you'd consider that "projecting power in a sustained way".  Also, I think the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon might disagree with you about "doing fine".  Iranians seem to get special targeting when Israel knows where they are :tu:

I admit Israel is top dog in its neighbourhood. But the truth is that they have virtually taken over Lebanon and Syria and nothing happens in Iraq that they're not aware of.  

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RoofGardener

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Saudi's sabotaged their own pipeline, in order to allow them to increase world oil prices without aggravating President Trump ? 

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Tatetopa
11 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Saudi's sabotaged their own pipeline, in order to allow them to increase world oil prices without aggravating President Trump ? 

Such an idea! 

Oil prices go up, the pain-in-the-butt Houthis get hammered, and the chief rival gets pounded by US forces while the princes sit back on their verandas drinking coffee and watch the free show.  Five days of production seems a small price to pay.

 

 

 

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bmk1245
18 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Saudi's sabotaged their own pipeline, in order to allow them to increase world oil prices without aggravating President Trump ? 

Well, possible, but that would look like losing weight by cutting fingers and other body attachments... Oil prices won't jump twice (I guess), so cutting production by 2x ain't winner.

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RoofGardener
1 minute ago, bmk1245 said:

Well, possible, but that would look like losing weight by cutting fingers and other body attachments... Oil prices won't jump twice (I guess), so cutting production by 2x ain't winner.

Hmm.. what makes you think that oil prices won't go up ? Many of the pundits are predicting precisely that ? 

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bmk1245
Just now, RoofGardener said:

Hmm.. what makes you think that oil prices won't go up ? Many of the pundits are predicting precisely that ? 

May go up, but not twice, IMHO.

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Sir Smoke aLot
5 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

Now it will effect us. Higher oil prices at the pump. 

Another gift for Iran, as if removing Saddam and making way for Iran&Iraq alliance wasn't enough. Russia won't mid financial injection either.

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Sir Smoke aLot
2 hours ago, RoofGardener said:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Saudi's sabotaged their own pipeline, in order to allow them to increase world oil prices without aggravating President Trump ? 

Market manipulation does make Richie Rich richer but in this case someone has to cover for lower oil output from Saudis and if Saudis can't do it - maybe Iran and Russia will? If the damage was that high that is.

Politics keep failing, like in bad fiction movie.

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Setton
9 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

I admit Israel is top dog in its neighbourhood. But the truth is that they have virtually taken over Lebanon and Syria and nothing happens in Iraq that they're not aware of.  

Iraq is basically in the bag too now. The Israelis have seen to that with their unprovoked attacks. The US is on borrowed time in Iraq. 

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DarkHunter

Officials from Aramco have determined on inspections of the facilities damaged that the attack was done by missiles and not drones.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/iran-rejects-u-s-accusations-over-saudi-oil-facility-attacks-11568544181

Saudi Arabia and America no longer believe the attack came from Yemen but instead came from either Iraq or Iran itself.  At one facility according to the linked article at least 15 structures were damaged so this seems to of been a very large attack. 

Complete speculation on my part but it seems like a military response agaisnt Iran is now inevitable.

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and then
10 hours ago, Captain Risky said:

I admit Israel is top dog in its neighbourhood. But the truth is that they have virtually taken over Lebanon and Syria and nothing happens in Iraq that they're not aware of.  

Those moves were made with money and by other political means, though.  I was speaking of projecting military power into an enemy's territory.  Yes, they have improved their position by building their land bridge but in the event of fighting between Iran and Israel or the U.S. that bridge will quickly become impassable.  Yes, they have the capability to strike our troops in the area but that capability will rapidly diminish in the first hours/days of a fight.  Meanwhile, they would see their AA systems and their expensive and prized nuclear infrastructure demolished in detail.  

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and then

I'm doubtful of the reporting about the lost capacity and the projected timeline for repairing the damage.  How do you lose that much capacity and repair the damage in a few days?  

20 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Complete speculation on my part but it seems like a military response agaisnt Iran is now inevitable.

If no retaliation comes after this strike then the next strike will be worse.  The idea that drones were used from Yemeni territory never sounded plausible so Iran doesn't have world opinion fully on their side here.  Since this attack is obviously aimed at the world's energy supply, a U.S. blockade of Yemen's ports would be a measured response.  Allowing food, medicine and other humanitarian support would blunt the world's criticism.  If Russia attempted to run the blockade we could then use airpower to destroy the cargos they deliver.  

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Tatetopa
10 hours ago, bmk1245 said:

Well, possible, but that would look like losing weight by cutting fingers and other body attachments... Oil prices won't jump twice (I guess), so cutting production by 2x ain't winner.

Just a side benefit.  How much is it worth to humble the Iranians and set them back a couple of decades?  Billions I would suspect.  How much is it worth to get good PR and let someone else finish off the Houthis?  Quite a bit to rulers that need a shot of good publicity.

If it was the Iranians it was pretty stupid, but maybe they are.  

Or get really wild with your CT fix.  Give it a 1% chance John Bolton had enough like minded contacts to make this a parting gift  of revenge and "I told you so"  to President Trump for firing him.   How much is it worth for John Bolton to vindicate his ego?  Billions of dollars of other people's money and maybe even a war that he thinks needs to happen.

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