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DarkHunter

Aramco facilities on fire in Saudi Arabia

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bmk1245
11 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Just a side benefit.  How much is it worth to humble the Iranians and set them back a couple of decades?  Billions I would suspect.  How much is it worth to get good PR and let someone else finish off the Houthis?  Quite a bit to rulers that need a shot of good publicity.

If it was the Iranians it was pretty stupid, but maybe they are.  

Or get really wild with your CT fix.  Give it a 1% chance John Bolton had enough like minded contacts to make this a parting gift  of revenge and "I told you so"  to President Trump for firing him.   How much is it worth for John Bolton to vindicate his ego?  Billions of dollars of other people's money and maybe even a war that he thinks needs to happen.

There is possibility for that, but IMHO its slim.

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Tatetopa
1 hour ago, bmk1245 said:

There is possibility for that, but IMHO its slim.

Mine to.  Just a fun CT exercise.

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DarkHunter

According to Trump it seems the US is ready to take action against those they believe are behind the attack but are waiting on Saudi Arabia to come to a conclusion and what course of action they want to take.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1173368423381962752

Also brent crude jumped up about 20% and Trump has opened the US strategic reserve on a as needed basis.

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and then
4 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

If it was the Iranians it was pretty stupid, but maybe they are.  

I sincerely doubt they could be called stupid.  They definitely are becoming desperate, though.  If this strike is repeated, they may get the war they seem to be agitating for.  

I don't see how Bolton could have caused a cruise missile strike in S.A.  That is so convoluted it just doesn't fly.

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DarkHunter
5 hours ago, and then said:

I'm doubtful of the reporting about the lost capacity and the projected timeline for repairing the damage.  How do you lose that much capacity and repair the damage in a few days?  

Saudi Arabia is almost certainly lieing about some aspect of the attack, more then likely the damage is more severe and/or the repairs will take longer then they are saying but they can get production back up quickly.  Saudi Arabia is borderline paranoid about its oil production and its oil reserves, they wont even release how much oil they still have underground, and they have designed their refineries to have multiple failsafes and redundancies built it.  Repairing the actual damage will take awhile so they will focus on repairing what's needed to move the oil to undamaged facilities which wont take too long.

Quote

If no retaliation comes after this strike then the next strike will be worse.  The idea that drones were used from Yemeni territory never sounded plausible so Iran doesn't have world opinion fully on their side here.  Since this attack is obviously aimed at the world's energy supply, a U.S. blockade of Yemen's ports would be a measured response.  Allowing food, medicine and other humanitarian support would blunt the world's criticism.  If Russia attempted to run the blockade we could then use airpower to destroy the cargos they deliver.  

I feel a measured response is not going to be what happens especially if clear evidence of the cruise missiles being of Iranian make is found let alone if the attack came from Iran itself, Iraq is adamant that the attack did not originate in their territory.  Recently America declassified satellite photos that show at minimum 17 separate impact sites at one of the facilities attacked so the entire attack probably involved between 30 to 40 ground launched cruise missiles. 

I have a gut feeling that Saudi Arabia is going to strike Iran's refineries with maybe some plausible deniability aid from America in the form of hacking Iranian air defenses with America quickly stepping in to act as a buffer to prevent further escalation.  But then again I heard that more F-22s got sent to the airbase in Kuwait a few hours ago so who knows what might happen.

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and then

How ironic will it be if, a few days after Bolton is shown the door, he gets the war he felt they deserved?  If it comes, I hope they make sure that the nuke facilities are utterly destroyed.  

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Tatetopa
2 hours ago, and then said:

sincerely doubt they could be called stupid.  They definitely are becoming desperate, though.  If this strike is repeated, they may get the war they seem to be agitating for.  

I don't see how Bolton could have caused a cruise missile strike in S.A.  That is so convoluted it just doesn't fly.

I know.  Bolton was just for fun.  Too much coffee and sugar this morning.  French toast with homemade apple pie filling left over.

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Tatetopa
2 hours ago, and then said:

sincerely doubt they could be called stupid.  They definitely are becoming desperate, though.  If this strike is repeated, they may get the war they seem to be agitating for.  

It really seems like a bad life choice for prosperity and survival of your country to do something like that.  Even the strike areas and trajectory points back to Iraq and Iran.  .

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and then
13 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

It really seems like a bad life choice for prosperity and survival of your country to do something like that.  Even the strike areas and trajectory points back to Iraq and Iran.  .

I saw a really interesting discussion of Iran's possible motivation for inciting a war and it actually made the idea plausible.  I can't remember the guy's name but his explanation made sense to me.  It just seems counter-intuitive for their leadership to push for a war that would create havoc on some very valuable infrastructure, even if they thought the payoff would be the removal of sanctions.  I believe they will continue to escalate their use of force until Trump is left with no choice but to strike them.  Israel would certainly hop on the bus at that point and make sure to eliminate any facilities we might not care to destroy.  Netanyahu and a couple of other members of his administration have stated that Hamas will definitely have to be eradicated, that there is simply no way to make peace with them.  I saw a reference today of a potential 2-3 years-long conflict that would eliminate them all together.  If Iran gets their war, Hamas and even the Hizballah my be finished as a threat.

Putin would not risk nuclear escalation over Iran's woes but he'd find some way to benefit.  

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DarkHunter

Not too long ago a senior Trump administration official said that Iran had launched about a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones from Iran to attack the Saudi Arabia facilities.  Also seems America wants Saudi Arabia to openly acknowledge that the attack came from Iran to receive American support for the response.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/iran-fired-cruise-missiles-attack-saudi-oil-facility/story%3fid=65632653

Out of all possible scenarios this is by far the worst and most dangerous, a strike on Iran is essentially guaranteed.

Edited by DarkHunter
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Dumbledore the Awesome

"The U.S.is locked and loaded and ready to respond" ~ the Giant Baby.

What an idiot. Now he thinks he's Dirty Bloody Harry. 

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bmk1245

Oil prices jumped, to no surprise, yet still far away from 120$/b. Just to note "About 5.7 million barrels -- 5% of global market".

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Sir Smoke aLot

Accusations against Iran are a joke, i was quite amused by Pompeo's tweets and thought that it would be absurd to even mention him.

''there is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen'' - implying Iranian fingerprint and provides no evidence for that claim either. Interesting note, every tweet from US officials which is concerning Iran is followed by their top troll, Heshmat Alavi. User who has shared enormous amounts of propaganda and was even featured in many articles because of his tweets - which were obvious lies. Too bad that many believe that. That troll even posted ''video of Iranian attack and twitter bots were fast to honor him with numerous likes while posts from Iranians were hidden because of sensitive content'' :D 

I truly recommend everyone to check out works of trolls and their connection to more popular twitter accounts ;) 

We should be more demanding than that i guess and maybe, just maybe we should apply the same standards on everyone.

So let's say that if there is a bomb with Iranian trademark then Iran is to be blamed. Regardless of Houtis being known to poses ability to strike SA with drones and rockets and regardless of Houtis providing data and taking responsibility. In this case, here is what happens :

1. USA & allies have been equipping Saudi coalition in Yemen war

2. numerous indiscriminate attacks on civilians were committed by Saudis and UAE, all while they were provided with intelligence data from the USA (and some other countries)

3. each and every bomb which fell on Yemeni civilians had certain labels on them

4. Human rights organizations made numerous statements, based on work on the field but that doesn't seem to interest secretary Pompeo

Should we now blame the USA for every death there in Yemen? Does the USA bear responsibility and could it be obliged to provide compensations for Yemeni nation?

So, if we follow Pompeo's logic then it's a big YES, USA is to be blamed for horrors in Yemen.

But that doesn't work that way. Being thirsty for corporate money doesn't translate into being murderer, even tho it's close and it's easier to make a case against Spain than against Iran for example.

Most important fact here is that SA is hearth of petro$ power (courtesy of 1973 war) and it's not surprising that we hear such outcry.

I just wonder why is it that, on democracy day for USA politicians oil is more important that tens of thousands of lives which were lost in Yemen. People have to learn to live with consequences of their actions instead of blaming others for their own misbehavior, like some elementary school spoiled children. It's not even interesting anymore.

PS

What about hundreds of confirmed attacks and breaches of sovereignty by US beloved friend? They even brag about it on daily basis. Even if Iran did this attack i would argue that they just follow what others have been doing for years.

Sorry for longer reply, in short we should just apply the same standards on everyone and ask for damn evidence for every claim made by politicians as this is not a joke anymore and could lead to major problem in the world.

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RoofGardener

Hmmm..... 

Iran claims to have a family of land-launched cruise missiles that could easily be in range of the Buqyaq oil facilities from either southern Iraq, or - indeed - from Iran itself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soumar_(missile)

Once more, I have to ask.... if these WHERE cruise missiles, then what the hell happened to Saudi air defence radars ? 

If the missiles came from Iraq, then they would have to almost overfly King Khalid Military City airbase. 

If they came from the Iranian mainland then they would have got very close to King Abdulaziz Air Base. 

The oil facilities are only about 40 miles from the Dharhan air defence centre, supposedly equipped with super-duper radars and anti-aircraft missiles. 

And yet they weren't detected ? I mean.. I wouldn't have expected them to be able to shoot the missiles down, but SURELY they should have been able to DETECT them ? 

.....if, that is, the missiles ever existed ? 

Edited by RoofGardener

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DarkHunter
43 minutes ago, RoofGardener said:

Hmmm..... 

Iran claims to have a family of land-launched cruise missiles that could easily be in range of the Buqyaq oil facilities from either southern Iraq, or - indeed - from Iran itself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soumar_(missile)

Once more, I have to ask.... if these WHERE cruise missiles, then what the hell happened to Saudi air defence radars ? 

If the missiles came from Iraq, then they would have to almost overfly King Khalid Military City airbase. 

If they came from the Iranian mainland then they would have got very close to King Abdulaziz Air Base. 

The oil facilities are only about 40 miles from the Dharhan air defence centre, supposedly equipped with super-duper radars and anti-aircraft missiles. 

And yet they weren't detected ? I mean.. I wouldn't have expected them to be able to shoot the missiles down, but SURELY they should have been able to DETECT them ? 

.....if, that is, the missiles ever existed ? 

It wouldnt of been that difficult for the cruise missiles and drones to avoid being detected by Saudi air defense radar.  

Multiple videos have been uploaded onto Twitter that show atleast some of what was used in the attack had flown over Kuwait airspace.  Flying this path would of let them avoid both airbase and probably exploit an opening in Saudi radar coverage.

As for the Dharhan air defense center and being only 40 miles away from one of the attacked facilities if the cruise missiles acted as most cruise missiles do and flew low to their target, if I remember correctly about a 100 or so meters above the ground is the height most cruise missiles fly at but I could be wrong, they would of been flying way below what could be detected by most radar systems.  There are radar systems that can detect low flying objects obviously but they have much shorter range then other radars and most if not all air defense radar at Dharhan would be looking for threats coming from the east and not from the north.

As for the missiles existing multiple pictures have been uploaded on the debris left by the missiles at the attacked facilities.

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DarkHunter

Saudi Arabia is reporting that is has determined that the weapons used were from Iran and now America is outright saying the attack came from Iran.

Also earlier this morning a national security meeting was convened on Iran.

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https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/iran-news/another-iranian-hijacking-in-strait-of-hormuz/2019/09/16/ 

Apparently, Iran WANTS to be attacked.  I really find this to be disturbing.  The only rational reason they would try such a gambit would be that they can no longer simply wait out the sanctions and they hope to gain sympathy in the world court of public opinion.  

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12 hours ago, Sir Smoke aLot said:

Even if Iran did this attack i would argue that they just follow what others have been doing for years.

Then they can face the results too.  It's past time they were hammered in detail for their crimes.  If they strike U.S. personnel in the region then the limited response should become a withering multi week takedown of every AA site, radar, ship, plane and barracks, AFTER all of their nuclear sites are pulverized.  Decapitation strikes would be well received over here as well.

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DarkHunter

Saudi Arabia has finally come out with an official statement.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KSAmofaEN/status/1173700721553944577

Essentially Saudi Arabia says the weapons used came from Iran but the origins of the attack are still being investigated and they are inviting the world/UN to join in on the investigation while reserving the right to act once they complete the investigation.

I can not tell if Saudi Arabia is trying to deescalate the situation and avoid having to strike Iran or if they are just buying time to try and build a coalition/give more time for America to bring in further military assets. 

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Black Red Devil
2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Saudi Arabia has finally come out with an official statement.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KSAmofaEN/status/1173700721553944577

Essentially Saudi Arabia says the weapons used came from Iran but the origins of the attack are still being investigated and they are inviting the world/UN to join in on the investigation while reserving the right to act once they complete the investigation.

I can not tell if Saudi Arabia is trying to deescalate the situation and avoid having to strike Iran or if they are just buying time to try and build a coalition/give more time for America to bring in further military assets. 

Well Iran is denying responsibility, so if SA or the US have undeniable proof by all means show the world (the UN) otherwise it's just warmongering rhetoric similar to previous accusations.

 

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crookedspiral
On 9/15/2019 at 2:18 PM, and then said:

If no retaliation comes after this strike then the next strike will be worse. 

''Then said Jesus unto him, “Put up again thy sword into his place, for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.

Matthew 26:52

 

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and then
11 minutes ago, crookedspiral said:

''Then said Jesus unto him, “Put up again thy sword into his place, for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.

Matthew 26:52

 

an den?  an what?

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Dumbledore the Awesome
14 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Saudi Arabia is reporting that is has determined that the weapons used were from Iran and now America is outright saying the attack came from Iran.

Also earlier this morning a national security meeting was convened on Iran.

The United States supplies weapons to the kingdom of Israel that Israel then uses to murder Palestinian civilians. So it's America that murders Palestinian civilians then?

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RoofGardener
19 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

It wouldnt of been that difficult for the cruise missiles and drones to avoid being detected by Saudi air defense radar.  

Multiple videos have been uploaded onto Twitter that show atleast some of what was used in the attack had flown over Kuwait airspace.  Flying this path would of let them avoid both airbase and probably exploit an opening in Saudi radar coverage.

As for the Dharhan air defense center and being only 40 miles away from one of the attacked facilities if the cruise missiles acted as most cruise missiles do and flew low to their target, if I remember correctly about a 100 or so meters above the ground is the height most cruise missiles fly at but I could be wrong, they would of been flying way below what could be detected by most radar systems.  There are radar systems that can detect low flying objects obviously but they have much shorter range then other radars and most if not all air defense radar at Dharhan would be looking for threats coming from the east and not from the north.

As for the missiles existing multiple pictures have been uploaded on the debris left by the missiles at the attacked facilities.

Hmm.. they WOULD have to be very sophisticated missiles ... true "cruise" missiles...to do a long-range low-level "below radar" attack.  They couldn't be improvised devices, which points to Iran, Russia , China or America. Israel has cruise missiles, but they only have a range of a couple of hundred kilometres. 

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