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joc

Climate Change Prediction Record 0-41

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joc

For more than 50 years Climate Alarmists in the scientific community and environmental movement have not gotten even one prediction correct, but they do have a perfect record of getting 41 predictions wrong.
In other words, on at least 41 occasions, these so-called experts have predicted some terrible environmental catastrophe was imminent … and it never happened.

And not once — not even once! — have these alarmists had one of their predictions come true.

Think about that… the so-called experts are 0-41 with their predictions, but those of us who are skeptical of “expert” prediction number 42, the one that says that if we don’t immediately convert to socialism and allow Alexandria Ocasio-Crazy to control and organize our lives, the planet will become uninhabitable.

Why would any sane person listen to someone with a 0-41 record?

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Sir Wearer of Hats

Is it not within the realms of possibility that the worst case scenarios didn't happen because action was taken to prevent them?
CFCs were said to be well on their way to destroying the Ozone Layer, so we banned them and lo-and-behold the destruction of the Ozone Layer ceased.
There was a coal-smoke fog in the 1950s that killed tens of thousands of people, so the authorities changed the way people warmed their homes and voila, no more deadly fogs.
Y2K was a scare, but it was only a scare because the terribly smart people who knew how to prevent it worked day and night and prevented it.

You are correct in that we have avoided, so far, the worst case sccenarios because we have acted in time to avoid them.

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Gwynbleidd

An old letter to the President back in December 1972 from Brown University re what we now refer to as climate change.  

rwkvfww3rxk31.jpg

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the13bats

dont jump thinking i support the idea of climate change even though its weird to say don got something right,

but clue me in, i lived in florida all my life, born in jacksonville, then orlando 46 years now eustis,

as a kid in the 70s i recall colder weather and longer from late august to feb i had to bundle up for school now its rare to get a freeze here, its been indexing over 100 a lot lately,

back then we would freeze on halloween and i cant recall an adult halloween that wasnt too hot,

not saying climate is changing but does it perhaps cycle?

 

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Not A Rockstar

You remember it right for Florida. How about daily afternoon showers? Florida has changed and so has the rest of the world it seems. I was born in Florida and did my cop career there. It was vastly different in the 70's when I graduated High School and headed off for college there :D 

I remember the great cry a decade or two ago about the rain forests being cut down and how that was going to change rain patterns and climate. Well, those are about gone now and we do see a change. When I see maps of the reforestation being done in China and India, I wonder if this will have effects elsewhere. I wonder a lot.

While I am not sure about climate change as wholly man made, I do think we can make some changes to ameliorate what we can see happening. It seems, that as always, it is economics (profits) driving the dialogue, however.

What the end result is going to trend toward, mini Ice Age or heat cycle, I have no idea. I just wish they would separate politics and science and start giving us straight answers free of corporate influence and bs. Still, even if they did that, we would see a range of opinions, I suspect, as this is the first big climate shift where we have been technical enough to document, study and maybe publish what we sort out about it.

It IS changing. Only a blind sort can deny that, but is it temporary, natural, man made... idk. Perhaps it is cycle is all, but, it would be nice to know free of the argufying. 

 

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Aaron2016

People fear what they can't control.

 

Here is a hilarious prediction which of course never came true.

 

 

 

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_Only
4 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

lo-and-behold the destruction of the Ozone Layer ceased.
 

Has that ever happened since we started studying the ozone deteriorating? That statement doesn't seem to make any sense.

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Not A Rockstar

Ah yeah, great little youtube vid, there. Because I am in a crabby mood, I will rant about it for a paragraph or two, then go back to being vanilla mooded again. Bear with me for a minute.

Rant on/ Yes, of course, comparisons over millions of years, how impressive is that!!  Very convincing and reassuring.  (But, at some of those peaks we weren't around yet). Extinctions are normal (?) and nothing to be worried about, easy come easy go, what idiots people are to be concerned and ask the questions and be very wary of scientists being paid by and dependent upon corporate payrolls who mock folks who wonder. I know it sounds all conspiracy theorist and wildly far fetched, but I do wonder if maybe some data is skewed by people who profit by how things are being done today... it could happen. Maybe.

Ecological concerns and looking for cleaner ways to live and power our toys is really needless, though it does keep some folks off the streets and employed, I guess. I mean if most of the past (what was it? 100 million years?)  we did not have ice here, then it probably is nothing to be concerned if we lose it all, since we aren't polar bears. Silly of us to even wonder. (/sarcasm)

I have no concerns that Earth will carry on whatever happens. We aren't necessary for that. Not even scientists.

But, if the next phase is averages like 10 degrees higher all the time, or lower all the time, it would be good to know that. If it is a probable phase to last a decade or a century, I'd like to see one of the laughing boys lay that out for us between sneers. We do have cities by the seaside having to deal with oceanic encroachment now. How high will it come before it stops, so those cities can plan? How long will we see vastly more destructive storms due to the warmer waters?

We pay these "experts" for answers, guidelines, sage advice, not sneers over how stupid we are to wonder and feel as if there is no clear voice out there, in fact. 

But, they have different degrees and doctorates than I do, so what do I warrant, right?

If it is a normal phase, similar to ones in the past and they know it, why does no one lay it out? Instead we have this political sounding warfare of yes it is changing/no it is NOT. They talk to each other, arguing, not to us out here. Not at all different from our US politicians.

None of them get paid for that./end rant

I perceive changes. I wonder what is really going on and what it may mean. I don't trust what I do hear as it seems all extremes of opinion and as if for once science actually does not KNOW, as they have not come together in a more consolidated opinion yet. Not that I can see, read or hear being said. I am well educated and know there have been extremes of all kinds throughout the history of the planet. If this is a phase, what got it started? How long will it run? Will the peak be something we have planned for and expect? What will it lead to? How challenging will that peak be? If this is not known, less snide confidence and more researching may be useful. If it is known, who do you believe?

That is how it appears to me.

JMO.

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Not A Rockstar
23 minutes ago, _Only said:

Has that ever happened since we started studying the ozone deteriorating? That statement doesn't seem to make any sense.

Yeah the big ozone panic, back in...was it the 70s? 80s? They found out our aerosols were eating it up and they banned outright the type of aerosol causing it and went to other products for that and it is healing itself, basically, so is a successful effort it seems. Far as that goes anyway.

This is why some of us wonder if there are changes we could make now to slow down the effects we see and read about, but, unlike the past, it is all arguing :( 

No clear guidance, it seems. I think I am like the majority, I am not convinced it is all man made, but, I am certain we could probably indulge ourselves more wisely if we knew what changes we could be making. I approve of doing things more wisely as we learn more and wish I saw more of that in policy and corporate initiative.

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_Only

The hard part is any way you slice it, we are basically parasites feeding off of the planet. At best, we can weaken our lust for sucking the planet dry.

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Not A Rockstar

I agree with you. I wish I saw more leadership and sanity in governance and environmental efforts is all. Like we should be looking to ban plastics in non-essential uses right now, IMO. Start phasing them out in all areas we can. Find new ways to fill that need wherever possible.

But, no.

No.

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joc
5 hours ago, Not A Rockstar said:

It IS changing. Only a blind sort can deny that, but is it temporary, natural, man made... idk. Perhaps it is cycle is all, but, it would be nice to know free of the argufying. 

The Climate is ALWAYS changing.  It has always been changing and will never stop changing.  Ice Ages come and Ice Ages go...and man was not even around.

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joc
1 hour ago, _Only said:

The hard part is any way you slice it, we are basically parasites feeding off of the planet. At best, we can weaken our lust for sucking the planet dry

The harder part of the slice is that this is an incredibly hostile planet to live on.  It seems the planet is constantly trying to kill as many life forms as it can.  Hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, floods, droughts, earth quakes...not to mention gravity itself.

...in short...we aren't killing the planet...the planet is killing us!

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joc
6 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Is it not within the realms of possibility that the worst case scenarios didn't happen because action was taken to prevent them?

Yes...it is NOT within the realms of possibility.  Actually, it is complete arrogance to think that we could change the climate even if we set our minds to do it.

If the Earth and it's atmosphere were that fragile...life would have ceased to exist a long, long time ago.  

What wiped out the dinosaurs...know one can say exactly...but one thing we do know...Man didn't have a damn thing to do with it!  :w00t:

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joc
2 hours ago, Not A Rockstar said:

I know it sounds all conspiracy theorist and wildly far fetched, but I do wonder if maybe some data is skewed by people who profit by how things are being done today...

Hmmm...ask Al Gore who wants there to be a worldwide Carbon tax!  Let's discuss Carbon Footprint....while we are flying all over the world telling everyone how they need to lower their carbon footprint...while we own 5 houses all using lots of electricity....

The truth is that the Left is profiting from the Climate Change scare.  They have all the data showing we are to blame.  You can't even watch Planet Earth without being told how we are destroying the planet.  But who is telling us all this?  The Left.  And the Left has it's roots in Moscow.  Remember when the trending phrase for so long was Go Green?  Whenever I heard...Go Green...I would say...No, Go Red ...go Moscow!   

The truth is that there is one main reason the Left wants us to be slaves to their Climate Change agenda....because as America begins to fall...Russia begins to rise.  Putting a throttle on America's Energy Production Capabilities has always been their number one goal since the Soviet Union ceased to exist.  Follow the money and you will see it is all pointing towards Russia.

So...yes...all of the data is being skewed by people who profit on Fear...

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Not A Rockstar

I agree with you essentially Joc. My anger is the real needs we do have for the environment, and all our "leaders" are busy arguing about an election 3 years gone now, and posturing and virtue signaling and doing anything at all but their jobs.

I am unhappy to see our national arks being cut back and reduced and more of those lands being given over to industry, much of it foreign interests.

I am unhappy to see zero leadership over the plastic debacle we face in our environment.

I am unhappy to see zero legislation regarding our water cleanliness. My own water has been unlawfully contaminated for YEARS now, I just got another note in the mail yesterday yammering about how it has failed testing, AGAIN, (mind you this is Louisiana which is hardly tough standards to meet to begin with) and then meaningless blather about how it is still not a hazard to me or my family (then why write to me? Why, if this safe and fine, do we have standards it is failing??) and there is no help, no teeth to make them get it right? But, most here are just poor folks with little clout so nobody cares about it. We're lucky, some have worse water, and this issue is ahead of the country and coming to a faucet near everyone soon like a freight train and not a peep out of Washington remotely indicating they give a damn past their pensions or re-election campaigns.

I am not happy with any party or anyone re the environment. These are man made problems, due to fracking and irresponsible herbicides and who knows what else. 

… and no, I am not supportive of the green new deal and the leftist ****** bs either. There is sanity, sane steps to be taken, and nobody is setting it in motion at all. 

Zero leadership in this arena.

I will stay on topic and limit it to climate and the environment, but the fact is there is nearly zero leadership on almost anything we could talk about. Infrastructure, education, big pharma...

*takes a deep breath* btw hi Joc :) Nice to talk with you again. Hugs and all that stuff. 720 am and I have not been to bed yet, still not sleepy. One of those slightly PTSD nights :/

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joc
3 hours ago, Not A Rockstar said:

I agree with you essentially Joc. My anger is the real needs we do have for the environment, and all our "leaders" are busy arguing about an election 3 years gone now, and posturing and virtue signaling and doing anything at all but their jobs.

I am unhappy to see our national arks being cut back and reduced and more of those lands being given over to industry, much of it foreign interests.

I am unhappy to see zero leadership over the plastic debacle we face in our environment.

I am unhappy to see zero legislation regarding our water cleanliness. My own water has been unlawfully contaminated for YEARS now, I just got another note in the mail yesterday yammering about how it has failed testing, AGAIN, (mind you this is Louisiana which is hardly tough standards to meet to begin with) and then meaningless blather about how it is still not a hazard to me or my family (then why write to me? Why, if this safe and fine, do we have standards it is failing??) and there is no help, no teeth to make them get it right? But, most here are just poor folks with little clout so nobody cares about it. We're lucky, some have worse water, and this issue is ahead of the country and coming to a faucet near everyone soon like a freight train and not a peep out of Washington remotely indicating they give a damn past their pensions or re-election campaigns.

I am not happy with any party or anyone re the environment. These are man made problems, due to fracking and irresponsible herbicides and who knows what else. 

… and no, I am not supportive of the green new deal and the leftist ****** bs either. There is sanity, sane steps to be taken, and nobody is setting it in motion at all. 

Zero leadership in this arena.

I will stay on topic and limit it to climate and the environment, but the fact is there is nearly zero leadership on almost anything we could talk about. Infrastructure, education, big pharma...

*takes a deep breath* btw hi Joc :) Nice to talk with you again. Hugs and all that stuff. 720 am and I have not been to bed yet, still not sleepy. One of those slightly PTSD nights :/

There is no leadership in Louisiana that is for certain!  And...YOUR water in YOUR state is a STATE issue...not a federal one.  There are already federal and state statutes on the books regarding cleanliness of water.  But where is all the money for cleaning up your water?  Look no further than the back pockets of the liberal Democrat leaders who have been running Louisiana forever.  Then look at Texas.  Our water is so clean you can actually....drink it.  We have an 11 or Billion dollar surplus.  We are constantly building and rebuilding our roads and bridges.  In other words my friend...we do have leaders here in Texas.  They are more concerned about good policy and enforcing our laws than lining their back pockets with money from the Tax Payers.  So...all that to say...it is a Party Issue.  State after state run by Democrats you see the same problems you face.  State after state run by Republicans are not having near the problems they do in the other Party States.  

At the same time...it is that Party that keeps telling us all we are destroying the planet.  The truth is...they...are destroying and have been destroying your State and everything else they touch!  Ok done ranting!

Good to talk to you again as well...hugs and all that!  

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Guest
14 hours ago, joc said:

For more than 50 years Climate Alarmists in the scientific community and environmental movement have not gotten even one prediction correct, but they do have a perfect record of getting 41 predictions wrong.

Please provide a list of these 41 predictions so we can back-track them to their original sources and see what they original authors actually said.  Bet you most of them didn't prdict anything at all.

Doug

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Big Jim
10 hours ago, Not A Rockstar said:

We do have cities by the seaside having to deal with oceanic encroachment now. How high will it come before it stops, so those cities can plan?

We also have cities under the sea around the world, showing that this is not a modern problem.  Those people dealt with it by moving to higher ground, something we could do if we weren't so arrogant as to think we can make the earth and climate bend to our wishes.  We will have much more success adapting to the earth as it changes than we will trying to force it to adapt to us.  The fossil record shows great changes.   Creatures that thrive in deserts are found in places that are cold now and creatures that thrive in the cold lived where it is warm now.  They adapted, moved or perished.  The truth is if we try to change the climate to suit ourselves we may change it in ways that are detrimental to other forms of life.  And that in turn may be detrimental to us.  

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Golden Duck
13 hours ago, _Only said:

Has that ever happened since we started studying the ozone deteriorating? That statement doesn't seem to make any sense.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1046452

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aztek

 

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Tatetopa
14 hours ago, Not A Rockstar said:

perceive changes. I wonder what is really going on and what it may mean. I don't trust what I do hear as it seems all extremes of opinion and as if for once science actually does not KNOW, as they have not come together in a more consolidated opinion yet. Not that I can see, read or hear being said. I am well educated and know there have been extremes of all kinds throughout the history of the planet. If this is a phase, what got it started? How long will it run? Will the peak be something we have planned for and expect? What will it lead to? How challenging will that peak be? If this is not known, less snide confidence and more researching may be useful. If it is known, who do you believe?

That is how it appears to me.

JMO.

Excellent post, followed by a string of other excellent posts.

When people say it has happened before, that  may imply that humans are not the cause.  Great.  Were there 6 billion humans crowding the planet last time this happened?  I don't think so.  So maybe this time we need to do some planning and preparedness.

There are a lot of small consequences to even a few degrees temperature rise.  Animal ranges change.  Insects extend their range north into areas that were marginal before.  That includes pests like ticks, fleas, fire ants, tree killing beetles, mosquitoes and so on.. Probably a lot of things we have not considered yet.  

A more immediate concern for me is pollution.  Garbage is everywhere and especially plastic.  Chemicals from cities and agriculture get into the soil, the water and the ecosystem.  Birds are disappearing.  Who cares?  Birds eat a lot of insects.  Bees colonies are still collapsing, and they pollinate a good many of the crops we depend on.  Living in our own waste may kill us before the climate does.

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joc
7 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

Please provide a list of these 41 predictions so we can back-track them to their original sources and see what they original authors actually said.  Bet you most of them didn't prdict anything at all.

Doug

  1. 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
  2. 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
  3. 1970: Ice Age By 2000
  4. 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
  5. 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
  6. 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
  7. 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
  8. 1974: Another Ice Age?
  9. 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life
  10. 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
  11. 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes
  12. 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend
  13. 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
  14. 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
  15. 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
  16. 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
  17. 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
  18. 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
  19. 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
  20. 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
  21. 2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
  22. 2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
  23. 2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
  24. 2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
  25. 2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
  26. 2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015
  27. 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
  28. 1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
  29. 1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
  30. 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
  31. 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
  32. 1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 90s
  33. 1980: Peak Oil In 2000
  34. 1996: Peak Oil in 2020
  35. 2002: Peak Oil in 2010
  36. 2006: Super Hurricanes!
  37. 2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
  38. 1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
  39. 1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
  40. 1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
  41. 1970s: Killer Bees!

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Guest

Several of these are not climate issues.  Killer Bees, for example.

Numbers 1 and 28 are about over-population, not climate change.  When Paul Ehrlich's book The Population Bomb was published, climate change had not been discovered.  Indeed, we were still in the low-temperature cycle that, in part, created the ice age scare.

A lot has changed since 1968, including the "green revolution" in agriculture and widespread aoption of family planning.  Global econmic output has increased while fertility has fallen, especially in developing countries.  The UN Population Division is predictig a near halt in worl population growth by 2050 at 9.15 billion.

You might want to update yourself:

Goldstone, Jack A., 2010.  The new population bomb:  the four megatrends taht will change the world.  Foreign Affars 89(1) 31-43  https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?collection=journals&handle=hein.journals/fora89&id=38&men_tab=srchresults#  23 September 2019

 

I would like to tackle each of these issues individually, but most of your items do not have a link or post a source.  That makes it hard to track them back to the original publication.

Doug

 

Edited by Doug1o29

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Guest

Item 2:  I haven't got a clue what this is referring to.  Can you be more explicit?

Doug

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