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joc

Climate Change Prediction Record 0-41

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On 9/21/2019 at 4:40 AM, Not A Rockstar said:

But, if the next phase is averages like 10 degrees higher all the time, or lower all the time, it would be good to know that. If it is a probable phase to last a decade or a century, I'd like to see one of the laughing boys lay that out for us between sneers. We do have cities by the seaside having to deal with oceanic encroachment now. How high will it come before it stops, so those cities can plan? How long will we see vastly more destructive storms due to the warmer waters?

Predictions about the future are made under differing sets of assumptions:  "If we continue as we are, X will happen."  The IPCC usually publishes four forecasts, two convervative and two more extreme.  Take your pick as to which you think it will be.

Another issue is WHEN will something happen.  IF NOTHING CHANGES, we will probably see about a foot of sea level rise this century.  Plan on that.  New York could get by with coffer dams around the subway entrances.  But what if something happens, like the Greenland ice cap collapsing?  Then we could well see two  or three feet of sea level rise.  How likely is the Greenland ice cap to collapse before 2100?  I don't know.  That's why we're doing research - to find out.

Think of knoweldge as a ballon filled with air.  The air inside is what we know.  The air outside is what we don't know.  As we learn things through research, we put air into the ballon and it gets bigger.  But the surface of the balloon also gets bigger.  The more we know, the more we know that there is to know.  And so it is with climate research.  It's a big field and getting bigger.

How high will it get before it stops?  If every temperate zone glacier on earth melts, it will raise sea levels about 18 inches.  Greenland could add several more feet.  But if Antarctica melts off, we could see over 100 meters of rise.  So figure the worst-case scenario is about 120 meters of rise over the next 200 years.  BUT:  there's a good chance global warming can be stopped well before Antarctica melts off.  So what should a city planner plan on?

Besides, tRUMP has proclaimed that it is verboten to plan on climate change.  Doing so is not allowed.  So it is in some states, too.  We are going to meet the future blindfolded, deaf and dumb.

Doug

 

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docyabut2

Its sad that the demos scared  the young people, when Climate Changes  always existed, and its not mankind  being responsible ")

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acidhead

As always.. says it like it is

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RavenHawk
On 9/20/2019 at 10:59 PM, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Is it not within the realms of possibility that the worst case scenarios didn't happen because action was taken to prevent them?
CFCs were said to be well on their way to destroying the Ozone Layer, so we banned them and lo-and-behold the destruction of the Ozone Layer ceased.
There was a coal-smoke fog in the 1950s that killed tens of thousands of people, so the authorities changed the way people warmed their homes and voila, no more deadly fogs.
Y2K was a scare, but it was only a scare because the terribly smart people who knew how to prevent it worked day and night and prevented it.

You are correct in that we have avoided, so far, the worst case sccenarios because we have acted in time to avoid them.

That's pollution, not climate.

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RavenHawk
18 minutes ago, acidhead said:

As always.. says it like it is

Back in the caveman days, when the thunder god was angry, the shamans would sacrifice a virgin to appease the gods.  That doesn't seem to have changed much through the years.  Now today's shamans, the climate scientists, say that the CO2 gods are angry with us and we must sacrifice to purify ourselves and allow the ruling elite to wisely rule over us.

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acidhead

 

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Michelle

The gang members, in the hood where we have our business, have the same attitude. They don't expect to reach the age of thirty, so they have no hope. It leads to the get what you can get when you can sort of attitude.

It breaks my heart to see so many people are subjecting their kids to this train of thought with the environment. Using kids, in this capacity, is child abuse as far as I'm concerned.

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Dark_Grey
12 hours ago, acidhead said:

As always.. says it like it is

I missed this post yesterday LOL

You know how in horror movies the innocent looking child is used a vessel for demons? It creates a strong contrast between purity and evil which makes it a powerful trope. Imagine Greta Thunberg is possessed by billionaire demons trying to control the world (stay with me here). You never see their faces or even know their names but their plan to control the world is failing so they possessed a child with which they can speak to us. Now tell me her speech doesn't sound sinister. "You are still prosperous? HOW DARE YOU! Why aren't you eating bugs, filthy peasants?! Why are you still having children?! REEEEE"

She was groomed to do this. She had a chance to address Trump, the leader of the free world, in front of the UN but she declined because...Trump? She also failed to address China and India directly so why is she really there? To put even more squeeze on the lowest polluting nations?

They used to have Hollywood actors guilt trip us in to submission but when they stopped being effective, they started using kids. Whether it's gun control or climate change, some deep state related child is going to lecture all us adults on how to vote and how to live our lives.

 

Footnote:

Greta here had her claim to fame from a stunt she did a few months ago where she crossed the Atlantic in a zero-emissions sailboat. Pretty impressive. 

Quote

The teenager had refused to fly to New York to avoid a plane's fossil-fuel emissions. Action against climate change has been a theme of protests she has led in Sweden that inspired student strikes in about 100 cities worldwide.

Plot twist:

Quote

[...]reports in Germany have now revealed two people will have to jet out to America to return the ship to Europe.

:whistle:

Edited by Dark_Grey
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Farmer77
5 minutes ago, Dark_Grey said:

They used to have Hollywood actors guilt trip us in to submission but when they stopped being effective, they started using kids. Whether it's gun control or climate change, some deep state related child is going to lecture all us adults on how to vote and how to live our lives.

Oh come on this is not a new tactic :lol:

 

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Guest
16 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

Its sad that the demos scared  the young people, when Climate Changes  always existed, and its not mankind  being responsible ")

It is child abuse not to present your children with the facts.  And the facts are that we don't have to suffer cataclysms.  That's out choice.  We can halt global warming by 2050 and restore the climate system by 2100.  Armed with the facts, they will not be afraid, but will go to work on making it happen.

Doug

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csspwns
3 hours ago, Doug1o29 said:

It is child abuse not to present your children with the facts.  And the facts are that we don't have to suffer cataclysms.  That's out choice.  We can halt global warming by 2050 and restore the climate system by 2100.  Armed with the facts, they will not be afraid, but will go to work on making it happen.

Doug

https://eidclimate.org/u-s-per-capita-carbon-emissions-at-lowest-levels-since-1950-thanks-to-natural-gas/

What do you think about this Doug? It seems to be written by pro oil and gas writers but to a layman like me I can't tell which parts are true/significant and which parts use misleading data/conclusions.

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Guest
4 minutes ago, csspwns said:

https://eidclimate.org/u-s-per-capita-carbon-emissions-at-lowest-levels-since-1950-thanks-to-natural-gas/

What do you think about this Doug? It seems to be written by pro oil and gas writers but to a layman like me I can't tell which parts are true/significant and which parts use misleading data/conclusions.

I don't know about this particular case, but O&G usually forget to count CO2 produced by burning gas as a pollutant, not to mention the CO2 that is contained in natural gas and released by burning.  And then there's flairing off unwanted gas and leaking equipment.  I'll have to take a look at this tomorrow.

Doug

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Guest
On 9/24/2019 at 4:30 PM, Doug1o29 said:

I don't know about this particular case, but O&G usually forget to count CO2 produced by burning gas as a pollutant, not to mention the CO2 that is contained in natural gas and released by burning.  And then there's flairing off unwanted gas and leaking equipment.  I'll have to take a look at this tomorrow.

Doug

I think I had it right.  They aren't counting CO2.  Methane (the predominant gas in natural gas) is 75% carbon.  When you burn it, it goes straight into the air.

Also, they're forgetting that we are now generating 7% of our power from wind, a much larger amount than we were just a few years ago.

I'd have to do some number crunching to figure out how much energy is released when methane vs. coal burning.  It is possible they're calculating that there's more energy in C-C bonds than in C-H bonds, so in a hypothetical case, methane might come out ahead.

Doug

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docyabut2
On ‎9‎/‎24‎/‎2019 at 1:22 PM, Doug1o29 said:

It is child abuse not to present your children with the facts.  And the facts are that we don't have to suffer cataclysms.  That's out choice.  We can halt global warming by 2050 and restore the climate system by 2100.  Armed with the facts, they will not be afraid, but will go to work on making it happen.

Doug

Climate changes have  always happen a billion years before mankind. So why blame mankind  of today being responsible?

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Golden Duck
2 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

Climate changes have  always happen a billion years before mankind. So why blame mankind  of today being responsible?

True!  And fire probably happened before man; so, why have laws about arson?

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Guest
14 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

Climate changes have  always happen a billion years before mankind. So why blame mankind  of today being responsible?

 

11 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

True!  And fire probably happened before man; so, why have laws about arson?

Today temperatures are approaching two degrees C above what is natural with four degrees not that far away (Four degrees is considered the threshold of calamity.).  That is melting glaciers and expanding oceans so as to create a one-foot per century rise in sea levels.  New York's subway system only has 18 inches of freeboard between itself and the sea.  Floods become more common as sea levels rise.  We are losing our second glacier to climate change.  There is enough water in temperate zone glaciers to raise sea levels by 18 inches - that's Ne Yok's safety margin.

From an ecological standpoint, climate is changing faster than animals and plants can adapt.  This threatens the ecosystem which keeps us alive.  Perhaps we will exterminate ourselves in time to save other species, perhaps not.

I do not want to run the slightest risk of exterminating my grandkids.  That's why I do climate research.

Doug

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Guest
On 9/23/2019 at 8:18 PM, docyabut2 said:

Its sad that the demos scared  the young people, when Climate Changes  always existed, and its not mankind  being responsible ")

Regardless of who's responsible, climate change is happening.  And so are the consequences.  We can do something about it, or not.  We will live (or die) by the consequences of climate change, whether we're responsible or not.

Doug

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Dark_Grey
27 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

Regardless of who's responsible, climate change is happening.  And so are the consequences.  We can do something about it, or not.  We will live (or die) by the consequences of climate change, whether we're responsible or not.

Doug

At least we have high technology this time. Our ancestors had to survive ice ages with animal skins and burning sticks

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Guest
6 minutes ago, Dark_Grey said:

At least we have high technology this time. Our ancestors had to survive ice ages with animal skins and burning sticks

We created the problem with our technology.  We'll have to fix it with anoither set of techmology.

Doug

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truthseeker68

The Climate IS changing...and will continue to change....long after we are gone...ti will change again....the Earth goes through cycles. Does anyone really think that in a mere 200 years or so Mankind is killing the Earth and all the animals..???? Species come and they go...and so will Mankind. Our Planet and all life on it will carry on as always...life evolves and all the whining in the world will not change that. These little brat kids they throw in our faces just p***es people off....does nothing other than question the upbringing of this child. And the WACK jobs like AOC who scream that we will all die in 12 years need to be put into Mental Institutions...not in our Government. My opinion is simply that YES...we ARE most definitely having an affect on our environment...and we always will. Until Mankind leaves this Planet we will always have some sort of impact....but we are most definitely not going to wipe out Humanity in a matter of decades or less as they would have you believe. In fact...unless we all go back to the Stone Age...there really is no way to NOT have a major impact. We as a species already do a whole lot to HELP the environment...and lower emissions, and save animals, and recycle, and clean the water...and on and on. So...basically unless we STOP living the Liberal morons will keep on screaming about nothing. They are simply using this child and all of the BS to further an agenda...and that is to get rid of Trump..because Big Bad Man Trump doesn't buy into the BS they could spewing. It's basically Campaign BS for the Democrats...but all the Liberal Snowflakes just can't get enough...they feed off being triggered by nothing.

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Guest
45 minutes ago, truthseeker68 said:

Does anyone really think that in a mere 200 years or so Mankind is killing the Earth and all the animals.

Bhopal.

Tulare Iron and Metal.

The Hallifax Explosion.

Gillespie Company Shell Loading Plant.

Amoco Cadiz.

Banquiao Dam.

Windscale.

Chernobyl.

Piper Alfa.

Great Molasses Flood.

Triangle Shirtwaist Factory.

PEPCON.

We're certainly working hard at it.

Doug

Edited by Doug1o29

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aztek
30 minutes ago, Doug1o29 said:

Bhopal.

Tulare Iron and Metal.

The Hallifax Explosion.

Gillespie Company Shell Loading Plant.

Amoco Cadiz.

Banquiao Dam.

Windscale.

Chernobyl.

Piper Alfa.

Great Molasses Flood.

Triangle Shirtwaist Factory.

PEPCON.

We're certainly working hard at it.

Doug

i agree with last line, real man made disaster. 

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acidhead

 

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