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DieChecker

Moody's forecast:

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DieChecker

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The financial firm Moody's Analytics predicts that President Trump will win the 2020 election in a landslide due to today's economic conditions.

I hear this a lot. That the economy is going to be the biggest factor.

Will the outrage by the left overcome the general voters trend to vote for the incumbent?

On page 6 to page 7, it says that given the historical economic data, the new Moody model predicted Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, correctly the last three Presidential elections. And the overall Moody model would have been correct the last 10 presidential elections.

So, reading the pdf, it appears to revolve around turnout. If the Dems can turn out at, or above, record numbers, they might win. If it is just an average turnout, then Trump gets 4 more years.

In my opinion, the likelyhood of a huge Democrat turnout is remote. Warren will sideline moderates, who will then stay home. And Biden will not bring out the far left liberals, and then they will stay home.

Edited by DieChecker
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BrooklynGuy
14 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Link

I hear this a lot. That the economy is going to be the biggest factor.

Will the outrage by the left overcome the general voters trend to vote for the incumbent?

On page 6 to page 7, it says that given the historical economic data, the new Moody model predicted Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, correctly the last three Presidential elections. And the overall Moody model would have been correct the last 10 presidential elections.

So, reading the pdf, it appears to revolve around turnout. If the Dems can turn out at, or above, record numbers, they might win. If it is just an average turnout, then Trump gets 4 more years.

In my opinion, the likelyhood of a huge Democrat turnout is remote. Warren will sideline moderates, who will then stay home. And Biden will not bring out the far left liberals, and then they will stay home.

Thanks for the link DieChecker, the economy is humming along.

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DieChecker

There's been a lot of talk of recession. But most experts seem to think a downturn, of any real size, is still a ways out. Even the inverted bond predictor says could be 24 months out.

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the13bats

Being im not savvy on politics i do at the moment think trump will win but more because i dont know enough about biden to know if he can beat him,

There's a new trump drama just about daily and some rep/trump supporters are jumping ship, but i have no idea if its enough to matter,

Its a long time away this comedy has plenty more acts.

Edited by the13bats
typo
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Desertrat56
2 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Link

I hear this a lot. That the economy is going to be the biggest factor.

Will the outrage by the left overcome the general voters trend to vote for the incumbent?

On page 6 to page 7, it says that given the historical economic data, the new Moody model predicted Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, correctly the last three Presidential elections. And the overall Moody model would have been correct the last 10 presidential elections.

So, reading the pdf, it appears to revolve around turnout. If the Dems can turn out at, or above, record numbers, they might win. If it is just an average turnout, then Trump gets 4 more years.

In my opinion, the likelyhood of a huge Democrat turnout is remote. Warren will sideline moderates, who will then stay home. And Biden will not bring out the far left liberals, and then they will stay home.

And again the independents are not considered.  They will be soon, though.

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Desertrat56
1 hour ago, BrooklynGuy said:

Thanks for the link DieChecker, the economy is humming along.

What does "the economy is humming along" mean?  I don't see any thing indicating we have a better economy than we had 10 years ago.  Are you referring to wall street's insane inflation? For me the economy health is indecated by how well I can live on the money I earn and whether I get a raise every year or not. 

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BrooklynGuy
5 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

What does "the economy is humming along" mean?  I don't see any thing indicating we have a better economy than we had 10 years ago.  Are you referring to wall street's insane inflation? For me the economy health is indecated by how well I can live on the money I earn and whether I get a raise every year or not. 

U.S. Economy at a Glance

https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

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Setton
3 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Link

I hear this a lot. That the economy is going to be the biggest factor.

Will the outrage by the left overcome the general voters trend to vote for the incumbent?

On page 6 to page 7, it says that given the historical economic data, the new Moody model predicted Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, correctly the last three Presidential elections. And the overall Moody model would have been correct the last 10 presidential elections.

So, reading the pdf, it appears to revolve around turnout. If the Dems can turn out at, or above, record numbers, they might win. If it is just an average turnout, then Trump gets 4 more years.

In my opinion, the likelyhood of a huge Democrat turnout is remote. Warren will sideline moderates, who will then stay home. And Biden will not bring out the far left liberals, and then they will stay home.

I would think the more left wing ones (the American idea of 'far left' is hilarious) will turn out just to remove Trump. 

A moderate democrat has to be better for them than a corrupt lunatic*

 

*in their eyes, of course. 

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Earl.Of.Trumps

I know one thing, Wall Street will back him. They know Trump is doing right for the economy.

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and then

While I sincerely pray he gets re-elected, but no way I'm getting confident just yet.  Too many unknowns and we're an infinity away.  The only prediction I believe to be sure is that as the days advance, the level of hysterical noise from the 5th Column and the trash in DC is going to become exponentially louder and more frantic.  

The latest Trumpocalypse (TM) is a perfect example.  They are ready to pounce on ANYTHING to try to gin up negative numbers and divide him from potential independents.  Mulvaney created a firestorm by attempting to explain a simple, traditional truth about how aid decisions have always been handled and these people use an inartful explanation to create the impression that the president and his staff are the equivalent of mob bosses.  

Well, forewarned is forearmed, as they say.  As far as the effects of the disinformation campaign, as long as he keeps having SRO attendance at venues around the country I don't think there is any real worry.  His haters seem capable of grasping onto poll numbers as proof that he is losing appeal while watching their own propagandists show crowd numbers that only show up for major sporting events packed in to hear him speak.  I wonder if it ever occurs to them that no one on those debate stages has any hope of doing that once, let alone at every stop?  Well, like they assured us in 2016, size doesn't matter :w00t:

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Tatetopa

How fast is the deficit rising, and will that become a factor?  If Republicans take over Congress in 2020  the response will be cut benefits, no new spending on infrastructure and keep the military strong.  Benefit cuts and lack of infrastructure spending hurt the middle class a lot more than the top 1%.

Will our trade dispute with China see some relief this year?  Crops are being harvested, if the price does not rise now, some farmers will not be around to enjoy it next year.  Sonny Purdue said as much, small guys will get squeezed out.  I am not sure that makes America great.

 The stock market directly benefits about 45% of us who own stocks directly or through 401k's   Even for a lot of those people, a 5% raise in their earnings is worth more to them now than a 10% gain in their 401k.

If you look at industry and  government reports they agree on the future of industry being dependent on high skill, AI, computer aided manufacturing, computer managed logistics.   I don't know how many Trump supporters have good paying jobs with  a high school education, but those will be the folks hardest hit by industrial technology and productivity improvements.

Of course, unless China isn't solved and the market does slow down in the next year, Trump may indeed win a second term.  What is more likely is that the trends will become obvious by 2024.

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Uncle Sam
5 hours ago, Setton said:

I would think the more left wing ones (the American idea of 'far left' is hilarious) will turn out just to remove Trump. 

A moderate democrat has to be better for them than a corrupt lunatic*

 

*in their eyes, of course. 

Many of the moderates I talked to said they will either vote for Trump to punish the Democrat party for their insanity or just stay home and not vote at all, they don't see any good candidates and they are sick of all the bashing Trump that is going on in the left wing media.

Edited by Uncle Sam
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and then
49 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

If Republicans take over Congress in 2020  the response will be cut benefits, no new spending on infrastructure and keep the military strong.

You might be correct but I believe Trump was genuinely interested in an Infrastructure bill.  Despite the absolute rejection of him and his ideas, the man has made it clear for YEARS that he was angry about the shape our infrastructure had fallen into.  He loves the country and like many of us, grew up with great pride in America's place in the world.  The benefits payouts have been reduced in proportion to the availability of new opportunities for work and self advancement.  

 

53 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Will our trade dispute with China see some relief this year?

The chances of a break in the stalemate only increase in proportion to Xi's belief that he will be forced to deal with Trump.  If he assumes Trump will be gone in 13 months, he may try to ride it out and deal with the losses.  Never allow your personal disgust with Trump to impair a rational appraisal of China's position and their dependence on our markets for their cash flow.

As to the rest of the potential economic landmines he might encounter, his base is solid because he is the ONLY game in town for those of us who reject what we see as true madness from the Progressive Democrat candidates.  I can't stress enough just how insane and irrational their approaches have become.  The one that stands out MOST is the groupthink surrounding the approval of open borders and welfare for all who come and YES that is exactly what those candidates have agreed on.  How a rational individual cannot see what that would mean to this country is beyond me.  

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Captain Risky
1 hour ago, Tatetopa said:

How fast is the deficit rising, and will that become a factor?  If Republicans take over Congress in 2020  the response will be cut benefits, no new spending on infrastructure and keep the military strong.  Benefit cuts and lack of infrastructure spending hurt the middle class a lot more than the top 1%.

Will our trade dispute with China see some relief this year?  Crops are being harvested, if the price does not rise now, some farmers will not be around to enjoy it next year.  Sonny Purdue said as much, small guys will get squeezed out.  I am not sure that makes America great.

 The stock market directly benefits about 45% of us who own stocks directly or through 401k's   Even for a lot of those people, a 5% raise in their earnings is worth more to them now than a 10% gain in their 401k.

If you look at industry and  government reports they agree on the future of industry being dependent on high skill, AI, computer aided manufacturing, computer managed logistics.   I don't know how many Trump supporters have good paying jobs with  a high school education, but those will be the folks hardest hit by industrial technology and productivity improvements.

Of course, unless China isn't solved and the market does slow down in the next year, Trump may indeed win a second term.  What is more likely is that the trends will become obvious by 2024.

I could be wrong but i don't see Trumps agenda on trade necessarily the same agenda that the republicans have. So if Trump wins a second term the republicans won't exactly be the quiet meek professional politicians they have been to date since they won't have any fear of losing their seats by going against Trump. There will be alot of pull back and they'll tie the presidents hands. He just won't get away with what he has to date. 

China won't be solved as long as Trump goes about fighting his allies like Europe or will they be in any mood to tow the American line when he spends just about the same energy attacking them as he does China. Hell all Europe have to do is open up to China trade and security and America can play marbles all by itself. China will just shift their trade to Europe and deal with America when a new president comes to power. 

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and then
21 minutes ago, Captain Risky said:

China will just shift their trade to Europe and deal with America when a new president comes to power. 

This demonstrates a lack of information on the total imbalance and how much relative benefit China accrues because of it.  This year the EU imported roughly 200 billion more Chinese goods than it sold to China.  In the same period, the U.S. imported 400 billion dollars MORE than we sold them.  The EU is a strong, stable market but it isn't a market China would willingly substitute for their access to the U.S. consumer.  Xi has an economy that is struggling to stay energized at the level required to keep his people satisfied, or at least not disgruntled.  I've seen multiple opinion pieces that speak of China riding a tiger of their own making and having trouble finding a way to dismount without being eaten by it.  If Xi's position were that strong, he'd be ignoring Trump altogether and even mocking him daily just to p*** him off.  No, if Xi holds firm for the next 13 months it will cost China much wealth and he may be forced to deal with the Orange Man anyway.  I think he has seen Trump's tendency to punch back and he recognizes that any deal he makes THEN won't be nearly as sweet as one that could benefit Trump's re-election efforts.  Wait!  Is that another quid pro quo?  OMG!

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Earl.Of.Trumps
1 hour ago, Uncle Sam said:

Many of the moderates I talked to said they will either vote for Trump to punish the Democrat party for their insanity or just stay home and not vote at all, they don't see any good candidates and they are sick of all the bashing Trump that is going on in the left wing media.

Or activists just may vote 3rd party. It will be interesting to see it pay out.

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Earl.Of.Trumps
1 hour ago, and then said:

How a rational individual cannot see what that would mean to this country is beyond me.  

People who  care more about their grip on power than they do for America will do great harm to get their stronghold.

Open borders would be a boom to the dems and they *know* it. The little d's know it too. As far as who picks up the tab...? 
Not ME... Gubment!  :no:

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Desertrat56
23 hours ago, BrooklynGuy said:

U.S. Economy at a Glance

https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

Yeah, like I thought.  "Corporate Profits",  has nothing to do with the real ecconomy that determines how well the workers can live.

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DieChecker
On 10/19/2019 at 9:06 AM, Setton said:

I would think the more left wing ones (the American idea of 'far left' is hilarious) will turn out just to remove Trump. 

A moderate democrat has to be better for them than a corrupt lunatic*

 

*in their eyes, of course. 

Your not considering the Derangement the Democrats have going on. The center left and the left both believe they are the correct way to beat Trump, and the American ability to all-or-nothing seems to apply to intra party politics. After all we saw a sizable, 12%?, of Sanders supporters vote for Trump in 2016, and many more just staying home.

A moderate/progressive split keeping people home isnt very far fetched at all.

Edited by DieChecker

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Farmer77
1 hour ago, DieChecker said:

A moderate/progressive split keeping people home isnt very far fetched at all.

Makes the Gabbard suspicions seem a little less nuts when you look at it that way huh?

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DieChecker
32 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

Makes the Gabbard suspicions seem a little less nuts when you look at it that way huh?

I'm skeptical of her being some kind of Russian agent. I suspect it is just mud throwing in defense of Warren.

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Farmer77
3 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

I'm skeptical of her being some kind of Russian agent. I suspect it is just mud throwing in defense of Warren.

IDK like I said in the other thread that suspicion goes back almost a year and is based on her media presence in right wing and Russian social and mainstream media.

Could be working for the GOP as well based on that data. Honestly I havent seen enough to convince me either way but the poison pill candidate who breaks off with a percentage of the votes and runs third party for the sake of whatever benefactor there may be isnt that far fetched.

The fact that she used Trumpian/Russian rhetoric to attack Clinton, particularly when Clinton didnt name her by name, doesnt help with appearances IMO.

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RAyMO

Trump will get re-elected because its what Americans do - they elect a president and then just to prove to themselves that they were right, they elect him again. The surprise would be if Trump was not re-elected.

However postings above seem to suggest that moderate dems may not vote therefore helping Trump. My question is will there be any moderates when it comes to 2020 and Trump re-election as I am sure he himself will say and then regret - you are either with him or against him.

This leads me to suggest the the 2020 election will be fought on "Trump" not the economy.

Edited by RAyMO
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DieChecker

That still Biden is in the top two would seem to encourage the belief in Democrat Moderates. At least IMHO.

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Setton
3 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Your not considering the Derangement the Democrats have going on. The center left and the left both believe they are the correct way to beat Trump, and the American ability to all-or-nothing seems to apply to intra party politics. After all we saw a sizable, 12%?, of Sanders supporters vote for Trump in 2016, and many more just staying home.

Because Clinton seemed a sure thing.

What about the Derangement of Trump supporters (and Trump for that matter) putting off traditional Republicans? 

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