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Dark_Grey

Elections Canada 2019: The Results

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Dark_Grey

I'm really glad I didn't put down money on this.

National Post

Quote

Canadians headed to the polls on Monday [yesterday] to vote in the 2019 federal election. 

Justin Trudeau‘s Liberals will form a minority government despite the fact that Andrew Scheer‘s Conservatives won the popular vote (34.4 per cent).

The Conservatives won only 121 seats, while the Liberals took almost half the seats with less than a third of the votes (33.06 per cent).

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is expected to hold the balance of power. 

Elizabeth May‘s Greens didn’t do as well as expected, but the Bloc Quebecois had a strong night. 

Maxime Bernier‘s People’s Party of Canada didn’t win a single seat — including Bernier’s.

The raw data:

337 of 338 ridings called | 17,884,770 total votes

Spoiler
LIB
157
 
Pop vote: 33.06%
Elected: 157
Lead: 0
 
CON
121
 
Pop vote: 34.4%
Elected: 121
Lead: 0
 
BQ
32
 
Pop vote: 7.7%
Elected: 32
Lead: 0
 
NDP
24
 
Pop vote: 15.92%
Elected: 23
Lead: 1
 
GRN
3
 
Pop vote: 6.49%
Elected: 3
Lead: 0
 
OTH
1
 
Pop vote: 0.8%
Elected: 1
Lead: 0
 
PPC
0
 
Pop vote: 1.64%
Elected: 0
Lead: 0

Canada has what's called a "first past the post" electoral system. Similar to the US with "seats" ultimately being worth more than individual votes.

Quote

FPTP is most often criticized for its failure to reflect the popular vote in the number of seats awarded to competing parties. Critics argue that a fundamental requirement of a election system is to accurately represent the views of voters, but FPTP often fails in this respect. It often creates "false majorities" by over-representing larger parties while under-representing smaller ones.

Hence why "the Conservatives won only 121 seats, while the Liberals took almost half the seats with less than a third of the votes (33.06 per cent). Half the total seats on less than 1/3 of Canadians votes. Talk about misrepresentation... 

Here is an interesting take on how "nothing mattered" in this election:

Quote

It was the first clue that, in the campaign of 2019, nothing mattered. Things briefly seemed to matter, until they did not. People would talk about them until the next thing came along, and then that too would fade to irrelevance.

By the end, the whole thing would have a carnival feel, all flashing lights and calliope music, with well-dressed grifters barking for attention in what was preposterously promoted as a leaders’ debate. The earnest curiosity of voters about platforms and issues melted away like soft-serve ice cream.

I'm holding out for investigation in to any voting fraud which may change the numbers slightly by the end. Overall, however, it looks like this is over.

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odas
39 minutes ago, Dark_Grey said:

I'm really glad I didn't put down money on this.

National Post

The raw data:

337 of 338 ridings called | 17,884,770 total votes

  Reveal hidden contents
LIB
157
 
Pop vote: 33.06%
Elected: 157
Lead: 0
 
CON
121
 
Pop vote: 34.4%
Elected: 121
Lead: 0
 
BQ
32
 
Pop vote: 7.7%
Elected: 32
Lead: 0
 
NDP
24
 
Pop vote: 15.92%
Elected: 23
Lead: 1
 
GRN
3
 
Pop vote: 6.49%
Elected: 3
Lead: 0
 
OTH
1
 
Pop vote: 0.8%
Elected: 1
Lead: 0
 
PPC
0
 
Pop vote: 1.64%
Elected: 0
Lead: 0

Canada has what's called a "first past the post" electoral system. Similar to the US with "seats" ultimately being worth more than individual votes.

Hence why "the Conservatives won only 121 seats, while the Liberals took almost half the seats with less than a third of the votes (33.06 per cent). Half the total seats on less than 1/3 of Canadians votes. Talk about misrepresentation... 

Here is an interesting take on how "nothing mattered" in this election:

I'm holding out for investigation in to any voting fraud which may change the numbers slightly by the end. Overall, however, it looks like this is over.

Perfect outcome. Minority government means being diplomatic and include others in descisions.

Liberal or Conservative majority is never a good option.

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Dark_Grey
Just now, odas said:

Perfect outcome. Minority government means being diplomatic and include others in descisions.

Liberal or Conservative majority is never a good option.

In order for there to be a minority, someone has to have a majority. This will all result in a lot of expensive suits wasting time on CSPAN while the West (Alberta,) quietly works on separating from the rest of the country. There was already a strong separatist movement a year ago. It's only going to gain more support now. Alberta is the Province that keeps the coffers full so Quebec and Ontario have money for dem programz. Trudeau is anti-oil, anti-Alberta given his French-Canadian heritage so he continues to make life harder in Alberta despite the cash flow the Liberals love to enjoy. Hence the birth of a separatist movement.

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glorybebe

Well, from talking to a lot of people, they really didn't want Scheer in.  So, rather than vote NDP or Green, they voted Liberals to keep the Conservatives out.  Not super happy with the results, but, happy not a majority government. 

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Dark_Grey
Just now, glorybebe said:

Well, from talking to a lot of people, they really didn't want Scheer in.  So, rather than vote NDP or Green, they voted Liberals to keep the Conservatives out.  Not super happy with the results, but, happy not a majority government. 

That's an interesting perspective. I really can't see why Scheer, or any other candidate, would be a worse choice than Trudeau. He's been objectively terrible for this country by every measure except drug policy.

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OverSword
Quote

 

 

Congratulations to @JustinTrudeau on a wonderful and hard fought victory. Canada is well served. I look forward to working with you toward the betterment of both of our countries!

 

:lol:

 
 
Edited by OverSword
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glorybebe
1 hour ago, Dark_Grey said:

That's an interesting perspective. I really can't see why Scheer, or any other candidate, would be a worse choice than Trudeau. He's been objectively terrible for this country by every measure except drug policy.

Yeah, it was a crazy election, but hopefully Trudeau will know he has to tie the line 

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Dark_Grey
6 minutes ago, glorybebe said:

Yeah, it was a crazy election, but hopefully Trudeau will know he has to tie the line 

Trudeau is buddies with Soros. That tells me everything I need to know about him and his policies.

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Gingitsune

And... I did a long post on the other Canadian elections thread, only to realise afterwards there was a new one. I guess I didn't sleep enough last night. -__- 

I may as well copy and past here:

 

Quote

At least Maxime Bernier and his People's Party are out, hopefully dead and buried. I could never stand that guy.

Congratulations to Jody Wilson-Raybould who kept her seat as an independent. Hopefully for her, Trudeau will be our by the next elections and she will be back with the Liberals. For international readers who don't know her, she was the minister of Justice when the SLC Lavalin (a Québec engineer firm) scandal came through. Trudeau pressured her to give the entreprise a free pass, she refuse on moral grounds. He demoted from her minister status and she left the party in protest, along with another MP. Only Mrs Wilson-Raybould manage to keep her seat, though.

The Greens had high expectations, hoping to move ahead of the NDP as the third party. They only got 3 MPs in the end. It's a good thing they now have one out of British Columbia, it will give them a broader perspective of the challenge outside of the Western most province. Now, will Mrs May stay as the head of the party? She surely didn't deliver to the expectations, but their number of MPs increase slowly as she kept her two seats and add another one.

For the NDP, the voting base crumbled, either not inspired enough by the new chief or fearing Conservatives so much they voted Liberals instead. Maybe a few more weeks of campaign would have made the difference, but it wasn't to be. They are now far from Layton's 103 MPs, closer to their historic average. Would they have done better if they have kept Mulcair? Who knows. Will Singh be replaced for the next elections? Will see how things go with the next session. Anyway, their MPs are much more  concentrated into a few region than they use to be.

The Bloc Québécois did much better than expected, harvesting votes from Liberals, Conservatives and NDP alike. Neither Trudeau, Sheer or Singh were inspiring enough, so French boomers went back to their first love. It helped that the new chief was a former provincial minister and had the experience and skill to deliver his policies item. It also help that the Martine Ouellet drama is over, things were spiraling down fast back then. I think Mr Blanchet is safe in his seat for a few years to go. 

On the Conservatives side, thing didn't go as expected. They won the popular vote, but it didn't translate into higher number of MPs, as it was too concentrated into a few regions. They still improved their number, moving from 99 MPs in last election to 121 this time. Close to the 124 MPs which made Harper's first gouvernement back in the days, but not enough this time to form the government. On the bright side, they gained seats in two Atlantic provinces, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, which will give a better voice to the issues of the region. Will Sheer stay? The party still got a decent number of MPs, although they missed their chance to power, which my be the end of Mr Sheer.

The winner of the night would be Trudeau who manage to hang to power narrowly. The polls were predicting a weak minority with the need to reach to both NDP and Bloc to have anything done. The real numbers give Liberals the luxury to tailor their policies to please either Conservative, NDP or Bloc and reach a majority of MPs à la carte. Mr Harper was a master at these kind of deals. Not the best situation for Mr Trudeau but more workable that it could have been. It's a shame they don't have seats in all provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan don't have a voice among Liberal MPs. Now the big question, will Trudeau stay as the head of the party for the next elections or will he resign before to give a new leadership and a second wind to the Liberals?

 

Edited by Gingitsune
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Sir Wearer of Hats
3 hours ago, odas said:

Perfect outcome. Minority government means being diplomatic and include others in descisions.

Liberal or Conservative majority is never a good option.

Really? Minority Governments achieve nothing because the opposition can rally enough support to stymie any policy votes (you’ll always have someone willing to cross the floor etc) or the minor parties that you get into bed with hold you by the balls and force all sorts of nutty policy to be tabled.

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odas
3 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Really? Minority Governments achieve nothing because the opposition can rally enough support to stymie any policy votes (you’ll always have someone willing to cross the floor etc) or the minor parties that you get into bed with hold you by the balls and force all sorts of nutty policy to be tabled.

Depends on the Country. If JT tries to act like he has the majority and keeps the concerns of other parties away, the opposition will force another election and he will lose.

Same on the other side, if the opposition undermines every single move JT makes and is not in favour of compromise just because ( read blackmail) Trudeau will call an early election and will win again.

We have seen this, both scenarios, many times before in Canada. That happens in normal Countries where the President or PM IS not uber alles.

I, like most Canadians, do not belong to a certain party. I listen to the platform of A party and then place my vote.

Btw. Likely Guuuuuyyyyyyy. Brother! Good to have you back.

Edited by odas
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quiXilver

hmm... which matters more... those who cast the votes, or those who count them?

 

Trump lost in becoming president by over 3 million votes in 2016. 

Representational Democracy always seems something of a shill game of the status quo, offering a semblance of involvement in the process of gonvernance, with the masses.

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third_eye

POLITICOPERA... ®

~

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Gingitsune
17 minutes ago, quiXilver said:

hmm... which matters more... those who cast the votes, or those who count them?

Every vote is marked on a specially formatted  piece of paper, with a big pencil, by the voter. Each party on the ballot have to provide staff to over check the voting process, plus some neutral staff. When the time is up, all these different political affiliation staff sit together and count the votes. They judge whether a vote is legitimate (it has proper marking in one circle only) or illegitimate (is blank or multiple choices were darkened).

If things are too close, all the boxes will be reopen and recounted with proper overwatch.

It's easier to vote multiple times than to mess the counting process.

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Gingitsune

But easier still, is to bus around voters for your candidate to the ballot station. Of course, bigger parties have more budget and volunteers for these errants, but the tactic is perfectly legal. It's less troublesome than proper identity fraud and you get much more vote from the same money..

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Hankenhunter
2 hours ago, quiXilver said:

hmm... which matters more... those who cast the votes, or those who count them?

 

Trump lost in becoming president by over 3 million votes in 2016. 

Representational Democracy always seems something of a shill game of the status quo, offering a semblance of involvement in the process of gonvernance, with the masses.

You say an awful lot with few words. I would enjoy a conversation with you.:tu:

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quiXilver
14 hours ago, Hankenhunter said:

You say an awful lot with few words. I would enjoy a conversation with you.:tu:

Thanks my friend.

One of my greatest joys is time spent with authentic people, enjoying a deep conversation.

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Dark_Grey
17 hours ago, quiXilver said:

Representational Democracy always seems something of a shill game of the status quo, offering a semblance of involvement in the process of gonvernance, with the masses.

It probably made more sense when there were a lot less people in the country and those that were here had to travel by horse and buggy.

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Gingitsune

Elizabeth May will leave the leadership of the Green Party, after 13 years, but she will stay Member of Parlement. Jo-Ann Roberts will be the interim leader of the party up to a leadership vote scheduled for October 4th, 2020.

Sheer and Singh are keeping their position so far.

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