UK General Election -

[bee]

 

MPs voted yesterday to hold a General Election on December 12th - 

With Brexit at the centre of British Politics at the moment and the House of Commons in deadlock about it -
this could be a dramatic election - just before Christmas.... 

   

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by bee

[bee]

 

This election is all about Brexit and until that is settled there is no 'Politics as usual'.....

It's like 2nd referendum and tactical voting will be at the forefront -

Will the Brexit Party split the Consevative vote?
Will the Lib Dems split the Labour Vote?
How will it all pan out in Wales where the majority of individuals voted to leave?
And in Scotland and Northern Ireland where the majority of individual voters went for Remain?

London will be torn between Labour and the Lib Dems..
The North will be torn between Labour and the Brexit Party..
Everywhere else will be juggling around with tactical voting...

I think the majority of Leave Voters want the Tories to form an alliance with the Brexit Party for the election..
But they probably won't unless it starts to look like they really need the Brexit Party to get a clear majority
and even then they might try to go it alone rather than have ..................... Nigel Farage as Deputy PM..... 

Although they don't seem to bother much with Deputy PMs any more..

   

[RAyMO]

The 5 main NI parties have all made their first Clarion Calls for this election.

None shouted support for Boris Deal.

None shouted overt support for Brexit

4 Explicitly reject Brexit.

Boris if he wins will have no NI support in Government.

Tories / DUP combination minus 10 before we start.

NOTE: that doesn't mean DUP will not get elected just that they won't give Boris their support.

Edited October 30, 2019 by RAyMO

[RAyMO]

My guess for the Return in NI - just for fun:

18 seats.

7 to DUP (-3) [Polls suggest 8, but to hell with it] Anti Boris Deal, Anti any Deal treats NI different, probably now due to farmers and business reaction: anti No Deal

7 to Sinn Fein (no change) Assumes no pact this time between UUP and DUP Anti Brexit - BUT do not take seats

1 Independent Lady Hermon if stands (no change) Anti Brexit but will support good deal for NI that protects Union if no other option - DUP probably moving to this Ground

1 SDLP (+1): Anti Brexit

2 Alliance (+2): Anti Brexit.

Edited October 30, 2019 by RAyMO

[bee]

 

If I was advising Boris I would caution him and remind him how Theresa May went into the last
General Election on a high... thinking it was in the bag and that her majority would be increased...
but instead it was reduced and only a pact with the DUP kept the Tories in power,,

I would advise him that a one off alliance with the Brexit Party would guarrantee him the Premiership..
and a healthy majority..

But then of course there would be intense wrangling behind the scenes because Farage
and the Brexit Party support Clean Break Brexit and Boris is  going on about the ''excellent deal'
he has got..... and I doubt he will be willing to switch to the Clean Break - 

 

[RAyMO]

2 minutes ago, bee said:

Brexit Party support Clean Break Brexit and Boris is  going on about the ''excellent deal'
he has got..... and I doubt he will be willing to switch to the Clean Break

and therein you have your answer -

Boris will go it alone for this^ and because more than a victory for Brexit, Boris wants a victory for Boris.

By that I mean, NOT a victory for Boris helped by Nigel, but by Boris alone, for Boris alone.

[bee]

2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

and therein you have your answer -

Boris will go it alone for this^ and because more than a victory for Brexit, Boris wants a victory for Boris.

By that I mean, NOT a victory for Boris helped by Nigel, but by Boris alone, for Boris alone.

 

you are probably right about that.... 

The Brexit Party is studiously ignored by all the other parties... 
especially the Conservatives...?
They are also ignored and side lined by the UK's Main Stream, Propaganda Media...

New Blood in the House of Commons upsetting the Status Quo is NOT welcome...
Although it's what most voters would probably like...

Those invested in the (mainly) Two Party system merry~go~round don't want the likes of Nige crashing
their lucrative party..... 

If The Brexit Party just get on with it and concentrate on the Labour constituencies with Leave majority
voters - they could get some MPs into Parliament with a bit of luck... 

I really want them to do well.... 

 

 

[hetrodoxly]

The worse bunch of politicians, (Cheats, Liars, Quislings, lord Haw-haws, those who would deny democracy, pygmies) since the days of Cromwell are telling me on the TV today they can turn lead into gold, the biggest load of bull shine is being spouted but the most stomach churning of all was the fixed fake smile on Corbyns face. 

[Setton]

2 hours ago, hetrodoxly said:

The worse bunch of politicians, (Cheats, Liars, Quislings, lord Haw-haws, those who would deny democracy, pygmies) since the days of Cromwell are telling me on the TV today they can turn lead into gold

I thought you liked Boris? 

[Setton]

Definitely should be interesting. Particularly if Tories come out largest party but not a majority. 

Not exactly going to find many friends in parliament with the way Boris has behaved. 

[hetrodoxly]

2 minutes ago, Setton said:

I thought you liked Boris? 

I suppose you'll be voting for the lib/dem/con/lab/greens, or what ever party will suit the sincere argument you're having on here that day.

[BrooklynGuy]

4 hours ago, bee said:

 

If I was advising Boris I would caution him and remind him how Theresa May went into the last
General Election on a high... thinking it was in the bag and that her majority would be increased...
but instead it was reduced and only a pact with the DUP kept the Tories in power,,

I would advise him that a one off alliance with the Brexit Party would guarrantee him the Premiership..
and a healthy majority..

But then of course there would be intense wrangling behind the scenes because Farage
and the Brexit Party support Clean Break Brexit and Boris is  going on about the ''excellent deal'
he has got..... and I doubt he will be willing to switch to the Clean Break - 

 

bee thanks for the insightful post on what is happening over there and what it will take to right the ship. I realize this has been going on for a while now and has been very divisive for the Folks, hopefully it gets resolved soon.

[L.A.T.1961]

Here is a link to latest polling - Today

 

 

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

Edited October 30, 2019 by L.A.T.1961

[L.A.T.1961]

Electoral Calculus - predicting seat's won from current polling numbers - 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats

CON

43.5%

318

35.3%

363

LAB

41.0%

262

25.3%

186

LIB

7.6%

12

18.1%

31

Brexit

0.0%

0

11.3%

0

UKIP

1.9%

0

0.4%

0

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 76

[Setton]

4 hours ago, hetrodoxly said:

I suppose you'll be voting for the lib/dem/con/lab/greens, or what ever party will suit the sincere argument you're having on here that day.

I will vote for whoever sets out the manifesto I think will be best for my constituency and my country. 

I would have thought that was obvious. 

[Setton]

2 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Electoral Calculus - predicting seat's won from current polling numbers - 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats

CON

43.5%

318

35.3%

363

LAB

41.0%

262

25.3%

186

LIB

7.6%

12

18.1%

31

Brexit

0.0%

0

11.3%

0

UKIP

1.9%

0

0.4%

0

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 76

CON vote share plummets, seats go up. 

LAB votes plummet, seats go down. 

Yeah, that sounds about right 

[stevewinn]

3 hours ago, Setton said:

I will vote for whoever sets out the manifesto I think will be best for my constituency and my country. 

I would have thought that was obvious. 

who are the candidates in vichy.

[TigerBright19]

Looks like the bookies are backing a Conservative win.

 

 

 

 

 

[Setton]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

who are the candidates in vichy.

 

[bee]

 

https://brexitcentral.com/a-brexit-party-perspective-on-splitting-the-leave-vote-at-the-general-election/

an article from BrexitCentral... discussing the Splitting the Leave Vote issue -

At the moment it's like Boris is hoping he can hold Leave Voters to ransom - forcing them to accept
his Deal / Treaty.... (that Farage says isn't the Brexit that was voted for) with the alternative being that
the Remain Camp will benefit from the split and Brexit could be cancelled... 

Now this is a tough one because if the Boris Brexit  turns us into a Vassal State maybe it's better to
just go for the Brexit Party and to hell with it.... and if Remain do get the upperhand... then carry on
building up Parliamentry strength and go through it all again to try and leave properly...

no one can take away the result of the 2016 vote to Leave... but until a majority in the H of Commons
will vote for actually leaving ( a Clean Break Brexit ) it isn't going to happen...

In a way.... Farage holds the key to the election even though he is being shunned by the Conservative
Party - but he's a clever chap and let's see what he and all the others in the Brexit Party come up with
to make the most of the election - 
 

Splitting the Leave vote works both ways and it is time for the Conservative Party and its supporters to recognise this.

 ~~~~~

Choosing to not contest every seat would be for both a big ask. Nevertheless, deciding to not stand in certain constituencies but still contest each other in many other seats could maximise both parties’ chances while leaving them free to keep their dignity and defeat the Remain alliance once and for all.

[bee]

1 minute ago, bee said:

no one can take away the result of the 2016 vote to Leave... but until a majority in the H of Commons
will vote for actually leaving ( a Clean Break Brexit ) it isn't going to happen...

quoting myself to add......

except if a 2nd referendum resulted in a Remain majority... and this is why Remainers are keen
to have another shot at it - because without a 2nd referendum Remain win they have no legitimacy..

 

[bee]

 

Some comments from a Guardian article re the Brexit Party and the DUP.... and the 'balance of power'...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/tory-mps-asking-brexit-party-not-to-stand-against-them

edit to add.... the guardian basically can't be trusted and might be mischief making with this Brexit Party / DUP
angle... dunno... but the Dec. 2019 election is going to be like a chess game so who knows...
@RAyMO - I think you said that the DUP were against a No Deal Brexit...?
 

Quote

The Brexit party is spending the next few days finalising seats for high-profile candidates such as Farage and Tice, who is an MEP for the East of England, and former Tory MP Ann Widdecombe.

 

As it makes more concrete election plans, it appears it is attempting to align itself with the Democratic Unionist party to form a bloc that could eventually “hold the balance of power” that the Tories would need to unlock a functioning majority.

 

DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr spoke at one of the Brexit party’s most recent rallies and they are said to have an extremely good relationship and to be working ever more closely together.

The Brexit party is aiming for up to 50 seats, but even if it returns a low number of MPs, a party source said the DUP had been a case in point at how powerful a small collection of MPs could be in shaping Brexit. The source said: “We’ve seen how influential those 10 seats are.”

There is an assumption that the DUP and Brexit party could unite with an offer for Johnson should he fall short of securing a majority in an election.

Edited October 31, 2019 by bee

[RAyMO]

7 minutes ago, bee said:

no one can take away the result of the 2016 vote to Leave...

is this true Bee?. I note you suggest it will need a referendum to do so in your later post - but is a referendum needed?

The referendum - legally was not not binding - it could have been made binding but parliament did not make it so. The Tory government of 2016 and subsequent government of 2017 said they would implement Brexit fair enough but neither binds the incoming 2019 government.

Depends, of course, what you mean by "take away result", but there is nothing to prevent the new 2019 govt revoking Brexit.  Which, depending on how long that government lasts, would effectively nullify the 2016 referendum.

[RAyMO]

3 minutes ago, bee said:

There is an assumption that the DUP and Brexit party could unite with an offer for Johnson should he fall short of securing a majority in an election

The runes here in NI are that due to the backlash of farmers (mainly unionists) and businesses (mainly unionists) in NI - that the DUP will not support a No Deal brexit going forward. But they have been known to make very illogical decisions based on non economic rationale. So who knows.

[bee]

2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

is this true Bee?. I note you suggest it will need a referendum to do so in your later post - but is a referendum needed?

The referendum - legally was not not binding - it could have been made binding but parliament did not make it so. The Tory government of 2016 and subsequent government of 2017 said they would implement Brexit fair enough but neither binds the incoming 2019 government.

Depends, of course, what you mean by "take away result", but there is nothing to prevent the new 2019 govt revoking Brexit.  Which, depending on how long that government lasts, would effectively nullify the 2016 referendum.

 

perhaps '''''no one can pretend it didn't happen and brush it under the carpet'''''' would be a better way of putting it...