UK General Election -

[stevewinn]

This is the last weekend before the election on Thursday. Tories & Boris 10% points clear of Labour who are on 33% , The Remainers party the Lib Dems on 13%. Who was it on this forum who said the people wanted to remain?

All we need now is the Tories to get enough MP's to control Parliament and the agenda. Be nice if the ERG group see a surge in their numbers. not beyond the realms of possibility for these to push for scrapping the current EU-UK 'deal' resulting in No-Deal. Brexit by New Year.

 

 

 

[Setton]

1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

This is the last weekend before the election on Thursday. Tories & Boris 10% points clear of Labour who are on 33% , The Remainers party the Lib Dems on 13%. Who was it on this forum who said the people wanted to remain?

And the No Deal party is on 3%. Who was it said the people wanted to leave without a deal?

Quote

All we need now is the Tories to get enough MP's to control Parliament and the agenda. Be nice if the ERG group see a surge in their numbers. not beyond the realms of possibility for these to push for scrapping the current EU-UK 'deal' resulting in No-Deal. Brexit by New Year

So a party should abandon it's manifesto pledges if elected to power. What an insightful, but unsurprising, position. 

[stevewinn]

41 minutes ago, Setton said:

And the No Deal party is on 3%. Who was it said the people wanted to leave without a deal?

So a party should abandon it's manifesto pledges if elected to power. What an insightful, but unsurprising, position. 

in a General election under the current system, and because their not contesting all seats the Brexit party stand no chance of forming a Govt. thus cannot deliver Brexit, All the thicko brexiteers understand this why not the educated remainers?

Its clear the Brexiteers will vote Tory, and get Brexit done. Brexiteers in areas where people will never vote Tory will vote Brexit party and Not Labour or Lib dems.

As for manifesto's well just like referendums their not legally binding. so shove that up your hoop. (dont you just love when ones own words come back to bite them teeth n'all right on their arris)

 

 

[Duke Wellington]

Why does Corbyn keep trying to make out the NHS is up for sale? And why does he keep trying to make out there will be a border in the Irish Sea? And why does he keep offering to give people free things that the state cannot finance?

He has nothing to offer except lies and preying on peoples fears.

[Setton]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

in a General election under the current system, and because their not contesting all seats the Brexit party stand no chance of forming a Govt. thus cannot deliver Brexit, All the thicko brexiteers understand this why not the educated remainers?

Yet when they were standing in all seats, they still couldn't get a decent share of the vote. 

Because most people either want a deal, a second referendum, or not Brexit. No deal is the least popular of all options. 

Quote

Its clear the Brexiteers will vote Tory, and get Brexit done. Brexiteers in areas where people will never vote Tory will vote Brexit party and Not Labour or Lib dems.

As for manifesto's well just like referendums their not legally binding. so shove that up your hoop. (dont you just love when ones own words come back to bite them teeth n'all right on their arris)

Ladies and gentlemen, you're 'defenders of democracy'. 

Hypocrites to the last. 

[Setton]

1 minute ago, RabidMongoose said:

Why does Corbyn keep trying to make out the NHS is up for sale?

Because the US President openly said it had to be on the table for trade talks? 

Quote

And why does he keep trying to make out there will be a border in the Irish Sea?

Because there would be under Johnson’s deal? 

Quote

And why does he keep offering to give people free things that the state cannot finance?

Same reason Johnson is? 

It's just when it's labour you call it 'free stuff'. When it's a tory, you call it an 'investment plan'. 

[Duke Wellington]

Just now, Setton said:

1. Because the US President openly said it had to be on the table for trade talks? 

2. Because there would be under Johnson’s deal? 

3. Same reason Johnson is? 

It's just when it's labour you call it 'free stuff'. When it's a tory, you call it an 'investment plan'. 

1. When Trump originally came to the UK to discuss a trade agreement he did indeed want everything on the table including the NHS. He got told know during a press conference. On top of that he has since moved on and has said he is no longer interested in buying the NHS. And Boris has also said it isn't up for sale. 

2. There is no border inside the UK under the deal. NI trades without any border with the UK, and without any border with ROI. It is trade between the UK and ROI which is subject to tariffs and checks. The border is between the UK and ROI not NI. The Brexit deal of Boris clearly states this.

3. The Labour Party is offering extensive free things which would require according to their own costing several £100 billions to fund. The Tory is offering no free stuff, its offering to increase spending in the NHS and Police. The IMF has said the Labour Party plans are unrealistic and cannot be financed, and the Tories are likely to be understated because they will likely end up spending more.

[stevewinn]

7 minutes ago, Setton said:

Yet when they were standing in all seats, they still couldn't get a decent share of the vote. 

Because most people either want a deal, a second referendum, or not Brexit. No deal is the least popular of all options. 

Ladies and gentlemen, you're 'defenders of democracy'. 

Hypocrites to the last. 

We'll be leaving the EU under the tories. So if your a brexiteer you know what you have to do. 

Just think when you go to vote you have no chance of stopping brexit.

Democracy deniers are once again going to get a kicking at the ballot box. And you can't argue with that. 

[RAyMO]

33 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

There is no border inside the UK under the deal. NI trades without any border with the UK, and without any border with ROI. It is trade between the UK and ROI which is subject to tariffs and checks. The border is between the UK and ROI not NI. The Brexit deal of Boris clearly states this.

totally wrong. There will be no checks North south - there will be checks east west - very clearly stated in the Brexit deal - the implications of which were outlined in the recent HMRC paper uncovered by Corbyn. if you were right, which you're not, the DUP and Unionists would be onside - however, Unionists have stated that never again will they trust a government led by Boris.

Edited December 7, 2019 by RAyMO

[stevewinn]

19 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

totally wrong. There will be no checks North south - there will be checks east west - very clearly stated in the Brexit deal - the implications of which were outlined in the recent HMRC paper uncovered by Corbyn. if you were right, which you're not, the DUP and Unionists would be onside - however, Unionists have stated that never again will they trust a government led by Boris.

What are these checks and where are they taking place. 

[L.A.T.1961]

Weekend polls - 

The Conservatives hold a 15-point lead over Labour just days before polling day, according to the last Opinium poll for the Observer before the election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/opinium-poll-tories-15-point-lead-over-labour-four-days-until-election

 

UK's Conservatives 11 points ahead of Labour before election: Deltapoll.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-deltapoll/conservatives-11-points-ahead-of-labour-before-election-deltapoll-idUKKBN1YB0LZ?rpc=401& 

 

When these results are added to the average polling numbers I would not expect much change to the 10% Tory lead. 

General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 20

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	43.5%	318	42.6%	255	335	432
LAB	41.0%	262	32.9%	142	233	306
LIB	7.6%	12	12.8%	10	15	45
Brexit	0.0%	0	2.9%	0	0	5
Green	1.7%	1	2.7%	0	1	2
SNP	3.1%	35	3.8%	25	44	48

[RAyMO]

40 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

What are these checks and where are they taking place. 

According to the UK Treasury:

There will be checks on trade going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. These include, food safety and security checks, regulatory checks (to check goods coming into Northern Ireland are compliant with EU goods regulation) and tariffs(potentially)^1a.^{1  2}

The intensity of these checks, and the types of goods that are deemed ‘at risk’, will depend on discussions with the EU.

According to both the UK Treasury and the Brexit Secretary

Exit Summary declarations will be required in terms of Northern Ireland trade going to GB³

The treasury has further said that the UK could decide not to carry out Import Controls (NI to GB) other than the Exit summaries, but warns goods would then be “free to be sold within the UK, having circumvented UK tariff and regulatory controls.” ⁴

Treasury also says that the Withdrawal Agreement “has the potential to separate NI in practice from whole swathes of the UK’s internal market.”⁵ 

1. Where these checks take place, in the physical sense, is not relevant - the important point is they are checks between GB and NI - not between NI and the EU/ROI. It doesn't matter to unionists if they take place in the middle of Irish Sea or in Liverpool - they are a check between what they see as internal and integral regions of the UK. 

1a. Should tariffs apply there is also a complex refund mechanism being discussed to ensure that tariffs are not applied to goods which enter NI but do not enter the ROI.

2. NI will still be subject to many EU regulations post Brexit.

3. While not a check this has also angered Unionists as an additional and unjustified, in their eyes, burden on businesses.

4. I can't see no 'Import controls' continuing long term.

5. This will be seized upon by Unionists.

Edited December 8, 2019 by RAyMO

[L.A.T.1961]

18 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

According to the UK Treasury:

There will be checks on trade going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. These include, food safety and security checks, regulatory checks (to check goods coming into Northern Ireland are compliant with EU goods regulation) and tariffs(potentially)^1a.^{1  2}

The intensity of these checks, and the types of goods that are deemed ‘at risk’, will depend on discussions with the EU.

According to both the UK Treasury and the Brexit Secretary

Exit Summary declarations will be required in terms of Northern Ireland trade going to GB³

The treasury has further said that the UK could decide not to carry out Import Controls (NI to GB) other than the Exit summaries, but warns goods would then be “free to be sold within the UK, having circumvented UK tariff and regulatory controls.” ⁴

Treasury also says that the Withdrawal Agreement “has the potential to separate NI in practice from whole swathes of the UK’s internal market.”⁵ 

1. Where these checks take place, in the physical sense, is not relevant - the important point is they are checks between GB and NI - not between NI and the EU/ROI. It doesn't matter to unionists if they take place in the middle of Irish Sea or in Liverpool - they are a check between what they see as internal and integral regions of the UK. 

1a. Should tariffs apply there is also a complex refund mechanism being discussed to ensure that tariffs are not applied to goods which enter NI but do not enter the ROI.

2. NI will still be subject to many EU regulations post Brexit.

3. While not a check this has also angered Unionists as an additional and unjustified, in their eyes, burden on businesses.

4. I can't see no 'Import controls' continuing long term.

5. This will be seized upon by Unionists.

 

Out of interest is there a publication date for this treasury document for when it was done? 

[RAyMO]

2 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

 

Out of interest is there a publication date for this treasury document for when it was done? 

Nope but it was subsequent to the Boris deal. Mays deal did not have different arrangements for NI. 

Even if it was produced 20 years ago - it describes the reality we are in now.

why do you think the DUP a Brexit party a pro Boris party went nuts.

 

Edited December 8, 2019 by RAyMO

[RAyMO]

14 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

 

Out of interest is there a publication date for this treasury document for when it was done? 

just read this from the independent:

"Conservative sources confirmed the document was real – but said it was a flash analysis done immediately after the Brexit deal was struck in October. It has not been seen by the prime minister, the chancellor or any senior officials.

However, the Tories contradicted the PM, saying there could be checks on goods heading into Northern Ireland, but the only goods that will pay tariffs will be goods that are destined for the Republic of Ireland.

Conservative sources also pointed to the fact that the protocol on Northern Ireland would be superseded if the PM secures a free trade agreement with the EU."

The bolded point intrigues me - Boris says he can get a deal done within a year - after all we already have a free trade agreement. This existing FTA agreement is based on complete alignment. I wonder is Boris going for close alignment? How else can he get agreement in a year?

Edited December 8, 2019 by RAyMO

[L.A.T.1961]

5 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

just read this from the independent:

"Conservative sources confirmed the document was real – but said it was a flash analysis done immediately after the Brexit deal was struck in October. It has not been seen by the prime minister, the chancellor or any senior officials.

However, the Tories contradicted the PM, saying there could be checks on goods heading into Northern Ireland, but the only goods that will pay tariffs will be goods that are destined for the Republic of Ireland.

Conservative sources also pointed to the fact that the protocol on Northern Ireland would be superseded if the PM secures a free trade agreement with the EU."

The bolded point intrigues me - Boris says he can get a deal done within a year - after all we already have a free trade agreement. This existing FTA agreement is based on complete alignment. I wonder is Boris going for close alignment? How else get he get agreement in a year?

From what I can see much of the final arrangements on tariffs and checks will depend on any future trade deal. It will come down to some horse trading between Brussels and UK to see what happens. There still seems lots of room for different solutions. 

For example - there will be no tariffs on goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.

The Treasury document highlights the “risk created by unfettered access” of goods moving from Northern Ireland into the rest of the UK. Although there will be some paperwork when goods leave Northern Ireland, the UK could decide it doesn’t want to put in place import controls on goods coming from Northern Ireland. If there are no checks when goods move into the UK then the Treasury sets out that these goods would be “free to be sold within the UK, having circumvented UK tariff and regulatory controls.” 

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:axwiIK4XDhIJ:https://fullfact.org/election-2019/what-do-leaked-treasury-documents-tell-us-about-checks-goods-crossing-irish-sea/+&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

 

[RAyMO]

5 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

There still seems lots of room for different solutions

true but only east west - the north south remains as is.

off course a free trade deal will oblate the need provided it was in close alignment - you can have free trade (no tariffs) but still require regulatory checks. the only way to avoid the latter is close alignment. Which many would consider as not being Brexit.

[stevewinn]

7 hours ago, RAyMO said:

true but only east west - the north south remains as is.

off course a free trade deal will oblate the need provided it was in close alignment - you can have free trade (no tariffs) but still require regulatory checks. the only way to avoid the latter is close alignment. Which many would consider as not being Brexit.

I have no problem with the checks, what's the big deal? We check goods all the time. what is it 3 in every 20,000 containers checked. and we already have a different tax, excise and currency border with the republic of Ireland.

trouble is the UK is going out of its way to protect the EU;s single market and treating the Republic of Ireland like its some special case. the Republic of Ireland as always wanted to be treated as a third country from the UK. i think its about time we treated them that way.

what's that you say, as a civilised people they'll start a terrorist campaign again. hmm, feck them.

[RAyMO]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

I have no problem with the checks

off course you don't. neither do I.

But for Unionists this attitude from leavers in Great Britain is a betrayal. They have posters on the staunchly Unionist, loyalist areas with pictures of Boris and Betrayal Act glaring above his image.

Unionist brexiteers are well aware and alarmed that 60% of brexit supporters would rather have brexit than maintain the Union with NI or that an even greater percentage are happy for NI to be different from other parts of the UK. that is subject to EU regulation.

ETA its not just the checks its the cost of those checks to businesses, the impact on businesses - job loses expected according the Treasury, likely increases in shop prices again according to the treasury.

Edited December 8, 2019 by RAyMO

[RAyMO]

2 hours ago, stevewinn said:

what's that you say, as a civilised people they'll start a terrorist campaign again. hmm, feck them.

Either side are as likely as the other to start a terrorist campaign. yes even supporters of the Union and brexit.

and feck them is hardly the attitude that people and families will have if they are unfortunate enough to be caught up in acts of violence by either side.

Edited December 8, 2019 by RAyMO

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

off course you don't. neither do I.

But for Unionists this attitude from leavers in Great Britain is a betrayal. They have posters on the staunchly Unionist, loyalist areas with pictures of Boris and Betrayal Act glaring above his image.

Unionist brexiteers are well aware and alarmed that 60% of brexit supporters would rather have brexit than maintain the Union with NI or that an even greater percentage are happy for NI to be different from other parts of the UK. that is subject to EU regulation.

ETA its not just the checks its the cost of those checks to businesses, the impact on businesses - job loses expected according the Treasury, likely increases in shop prices again according to the treasury.

The same goods being checked will also be the same goods that currently need documentation for the different tax/vat, excise duty/currency border that exists. who knew an extra tick box on the same paper work would cost so much, costing jobs and rise food prices. funny how this paper work is also electronically filed away from the border in Midlands of all places, the furthest you can get from coastal ports. 

I think its about time the EU brought itself up to date with the rest of the world. i mean i can purchase goods from the U.S. pay the tariff duty electronically in advance and gets delivered to my front door.

I recently bought a C02 system for my tropical fish setup from Germany DHL delivery, guess what, even though it was tariff free, on the tracking it stated it was held by customs. when it was finally delivered the box had been opened and inspected as it had Customs tape all over it to reseal it. tell me, if this happened to someone in N.I would they feel betrayed.

[RAyMO]

 

19 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

The same goods being checked will also be the same goods that currently need documentation for the different tax/vat, excise duty/currency border that exists. who knew an extra tick box on the same paper work would cost so much, costing jobs and rise food prices. funny how this paper work is also electronically filed away from the border in Midlands of all places, the furthest you can get from coastal ports. 

No Steve its not the same goods. No point saying anymore.

[Duke Wellington]

16 hours ago, stevewinn said:

in a General election under the current system, and because their not contesting all seats the Brexit party stand no chance of forming a Govt. thus cannot deliver Brexit, All the thicko brexiteers understand this why not the educated remainers?

Its clear the Brexiteers will vote Tory, and get Brexit done. Brexiteers in areas where people will never vote Tory will vote Brexit party and Not Labour or Lib dems.

As for manifesto's well just like referendums their not legally binding. so shove that up your hoop. (dont you just love when ones own words come back to bite them teeth n'all right on their arris)

 

 

We all understand to vote Tory if we are centre or right-wing and want Brexit. If we are left-wing but want out of the EU and cannot stomach the Tories then there is the Brexit Party strategically targeting Labour Party strongholds to split their vote.

The main challenge going against Communist Corbyn is his communism alienating the centre and centre-left regardless of their views on the EU. But he is also alienating left-wingers that want a proper Brexit. 

A political party can gain a majority in Parliament with as little as 30% of the vote if the runner up parties poll significantly behind it. But look at the Tories - 42% as of today with a clear 10 point lead. And while that is a poll signalling voting intention across the UK it doesnt take into account tactical targeting of seats.

Tactically a constituency is won by getting the majority of votes within it. And the difference between the number of people living in one constituency compared to another can be huge. We only have aggregated data for the country as a whole so I predict with the Tory and Brexit Party stitch up they are going to do even better than what we expect. I predict the Tories with a 100 seat majority.

[RAyMO]

6 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

I predict the Tories with a 100 seat majority.

Polls have always under estimated BAME and youth votes I predict both to be higher and tactical voting to more prevalent amongst remainers than leavers. I predict a Tory win by 10 seat majority with no PM available to be in place the day after the election

Edited December 8, 2019 by RAyMO

[stevewinn]

20 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

 

No Steve its not the same goods. No point saying anymore.

oh, its special goods that's never been checked before ever. mystical.