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UK General Election -


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10 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Polls have always under estimated BAME and youth votes I predict both to be higher and tactical voting to more prevalent amongst remainers than leavers. I predict a Tory win by 10 seat majority with no PM available to be in place the day after the election :)

But Corbyn is too much to stomach for many of the moderate socialists who would normally vote Labour. On top of that the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party are both splitting their vote.

The Tory Party has no one splitting its vote because the Brexit Party agreed only to stand in Labour strongholds to see if they could split the vote enough to wins seats for themselves or create Tory wins. 

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15 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

We all understand to vote Tory if we are centre or right-wing and want Brexit. If we are left-wing but want out of the EU and cannot stomach the Tories then there is the Brexit Party strategically targeting Labour Party strongholds to split their vote.

The main challenge going against Communist Corbyn is his communism alienating the centre and centre-left regardless of their views on the EU. But he is also alienating left-wingers that want a proper Brexit. 

A political party can gain a majority in Parliament with as little as 30% of the vote if the runner up parties poll significantly behind it. But look at the Tories - 42% as of today with a clear 10 point lead. And while that is a poll signalling voting intention across the UK it doesnt take into account tactical targeting of seats.

Tactically a constituency is won by getting the majority of votes within it. And the difference between the number of people living in one constituency compared to another can be huge. We only have aggregated data for the country as a whole so I predict with the Tory and Brexit Party stitch up they are going to do even better than what we expect. I predict the Tories with a 100 seat majority.

the polls always have a left leaning slant as well, so we can add another 5% points to the Tories. putting them on 47%.

I was talking to my cousin who lives the opposite end of the country southcoast this week, and he voted remain but is voting Tory because he understands the referendum result has to be delivered. his wife and three grown up children voted Remain also they are voting Tory because we have to leave was his words. and he hates Corbyn with a passion. this from his time when he worked for the MoD, and he'd witness corbyn's actions and words on his marches in the 70's 80's  his mother is a consular at UK embassies and though diplomatic dislikes Corbyn with a passion as do most civil servants.

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17 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

oh, its special goods that's never been checked before ever. mystical.

yes its goods between Liverpool and Belfast for example, which previously would have been treated the same as goods between Newry and Belfast - in other words take order generate invoice stick in back of delivey van - nothing else required.

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28 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

But Corbyn is too much to stomach for many of the moderate socialists who would normally vote Labour. On top of that the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party are both splitting their vote.

The Tory Party has no one splitting its vote because the Brexit Party agreed only to stand in Labour strongholds to see if they could split the vote enough to wins seats for themselves or create Tory wins. 

if your 100 is closer you can buy yourself a bun - If my 10 is closer I'll do likewise :) oh and I can have an extra bun if Boris loses his seat.

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12 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

yes its goods between Liverpool and Belfast for example, which previously would have been treated the same as goods between Newry and Belfast - in other words take order generate invoice stick in back of delivey van - nothing else required.

Nothing really special is it. Like I said pre-clearance and extra tick box on the declaration form. Ship Docks 20,000 containers only 3 are checked. Same apply to goods crossing the Irish Sea beit in the back of a transit van or container ship. 

Reality Check is all whats needed. What about Ireland 80% of its exports to the EU come via the UK transport network. Theyll have to be cleared to pass through the UK. 

How does Switzerland a landlocked country get goods imported from non eu countries. I mean Switzerland as a FTA with China. The eu doesn't How do Chinese goods pass through the EU on the way to Switzerland. Are they the 50 mile queues we see at the Swiss border. No, what queues exactly. 

Someone tell the Irish its checks on goods not sovereignty. 

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24 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Nothing really special is it. Like I said pre-clearance and extra tick box on the declaration form. Ship Docks 20,000 containers only 3 are checked. Same apply to goods crossing the Irish Sea beit in the back of a transit van or container ship. 

Reality Check is all whats needed. What about Ireland 80% of its exports to the EU come via the UK transport network. Theyll have to be cleared to pass through the UK. 

How does Switzerland a landlocked country get goods imported from non eu countries. I mean Switzerland as a FTA with China. The eu doesn't How do Chinese goods pass through the EU on the way to Switzerland. Are they the 50 mile queues we see at the Swiss border. No, what queues exactly. 

Someone tell the Irish its checks on goods not sovereignty. 

There are no declaration forms at present for goods between NI and UK, there are no regulatory checks for goods between NI and GB at present, there are no tariffs between NI and GB. Post Boris deal there will be declaration forms, there will be checks, there also will ultimately be no tariffs, but tariffs will be initially charged and will be refunded if it can be proven that goods did not enter the ROI. There is also different labeling required, going forward NI goods will have to be labelled UK(NI) not merely UK.

Boris goes on about we are UK we can what we like, "unfettered access" are the only 2 words he knows from the NI protocol in the WA. But as the Treasury have shown, Steven Barclay has shown, and reading the protocols shows, Boris has misunderstood the meaning and context of these 2 words. They refer to the tariff regime, on the other hand the WA clearly states that the UK is obligated (under international law and WTO rules) to check that goods entering NI meet the EU regulations that will still apply in NI, something like 300 according to Andrew Neill (i didn't bother counting them).

Whilst it doesn't cause me to lose any sleep, surely you can see how Unionists, already worried about their position in the UK, will see these factors as eroding their connection to the UK.

Perhaps you are forgetting that NI will largely be operating as an EU country.

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9 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

There are no declaration forms at present for goods between NI and UK, there are no regulatory checks for goods between NI and GB at present, there are no tariffs between NI and GB. Post Boris deal there will be declaration forms, there will be checks, there also will ultimately be no tariffs, but tariffs will be initially charged and will be refunded if it can be proven that goods did not enter the ROI. There is also different labeling required, going forward NI goods will have to be labelled UK(NI) not merely UK.

Boris goes on about we are UK we can what we like, "unfettered access" are the only 2 words he knows from the NI protocol in the WA. But as the Treasury have shown, Steven Barclay has shown, and reading the protocols shows, Boris has misunderstood the meaning and context of these 2 words. They refer to the tariff regime, on the other hand the WA clearly states that the UK is obligated (under international law and WTO rules) to check that goods entering NI meet the EU regulations that will still apply in NI, something like 300 according to Andrew Neill (i didn't bother counting them).

Whilst it doesn't cause me to lose any sleep, surely you can see how Unionists, already worried about their position in the UK, will see these factors as eroding their connection to the UK.

Checks will take place on what percentage of goods?

As it stands all animal livestock are already checked between GB&N.I. So that's unchanged. 

So tell me what goods are to be checked? What percentage? Does your leaked document tell us?

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Nearly all goods will be subject to check - medical, electronic, foodstuffs, chemical, ........ what percentage of the volume will be checked I don't know

what the treasury document does say is that:

  • the WA “has the potential to separate NI in practice from whole swathes of the UK’s internal market.”;
  • Checks could be “highly disruptive” to the Northern Ireland economy;
  • 98 per cent of exporters to Britain are small businesses who will be hit hard by these extra costs.

But figures and percentages are not the Unionists key concern, likewise while they will highlight the burden on business, this just happens to be convenient, even if there were zero checks / declarations they would still be up in arms.

The WA creates an economic arrangement in NI that is significantly different from the rest of the UK - (again from their perspective) it aligns them closer to Dublin than London.

 

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If both Labour and the Lib-Dems suffer a humiliating defeat will their leaders take responsibility and step down as leader of their party, or will they refuse to take responsibility and resist all attempts to do the honourable thing and step down?

 

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15 minutes ago, Aaron2016 said:

If both Labour and the Lib-Dems suffer a humiliating defeat will their leaders take responsibility and step down as leader of their party, or will they refuse to take responsibility and resist all attempts to do the honourable thing and step down?

 

Corbyn will be gone, and the massive in fighting in the Labour party will begin.

The Lib Dems will do well by their own standards and so Jo will continue.

I think the Tories will win big thanks to the Shy Tory factor especially up north, as this shy Tory factor wont appear in the polls, and the polls already have Boris on 10% to 15 % points above Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

If both Labour and the Lib-Dems suffer a humiliating defeat will their leaders take responsibility and step down as leader of their party, or will they refuse to take responsibility and resist all attempts to do the honourable thing and step down?

 

not sure about Libs but Corbyn should go - in fact he should go today. However, I think he will have to be hauled out screaming and shouting. I hope I am wrong though.

Edited by RAyMO
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Thursday night promises to be an interesting affair... (if I can stay awake) :) 
Sunderland always try to be first with the count...  and they were 61% Leave - 39% Remain in the referendum -
 

I just had a look here (BBC link) and the Brexit Party is standing in the three Sunderland Constituencies...
So we could get an early indication of how they will do....

What's the betting the postal voting for Labour is very high in those places... know what I'm saying?
Remember Peterborough a while back...

And that leads me onto what I just saw about Farage maybe changing the Brexit Party to the Reform Party
after the election....

source ITV

Asked what on Sky News's Sophy Ridge On Sunday what would happen to the Brexit Party if the UK leaves the EU on January 31, he said: "It'll have to reform into the 'reform party', it'll have to campaign to change politics for good, get rid of the House of Lords, change the voting system.

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More weekend polls -

Poll Predicts UK Conservatives to Win Majority of 38 in Election: Sunday Times.

A Datapraxis poll, using the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, predicted that the Conservatives would win 344 seats, with the opposition Labour Party taking 221.

https://www.algemeiner.com/2019/12/08/poll-predicts-uk-conservatives-to-win-majority-of-38-in-election-sunday-times/

 

UK PM Johnson extends lead over Labour to 9 points: BMG poll.

The Conservatives are on 41% support, up two points, compared with the previous BMG poll published on Nov 30. Labour fell one point to 32%. The Liberal Democrats edged up one point to 14% and the Brexit Party was unchanged at 4%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-polls-bmg/uk-pm-johnson-extends-lead-over-labour-to-9-points-bmg-poll

General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 46

Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 43.5% 318 43.5% 262 348 441
LAB 41.0% 262 32.7% 136 225 300
LIB 7.6% 12 12.5% 10 13 42
Brexit 0.0% 0 2.9% 0 0 5
Green 1.7% 1 2.3% 0 1 1
SNP 3.1% 35 3.7% 22 41 47

 

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html 

 

 

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Boris Johnson will be visiting areas in the North of England today! :rofl:

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On 11/8/2019 at 2:04 AM, stevewinn said:

He'd normally be shouting at the pigeons at this time of the morning but the gates aren't open yet

I get the impression that he sits on a bench throwing bread crumbs at HIMSELF because he thinks HE'S the pigeon.  :w00t:

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5 hours ago, and then said:

I get the impression that he sits on a bench throwing bread crumbs at HIMSELF because he thinks HE'S the pigeon.  :w00t:

So long as I don't turn into an angry, bitter old man like you, I'll be happy. 

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37 minutes ago, Setton said:

So long as I don't turn into an angry, bitter old man like you, I'll be happy. 

Um.......

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23 hours ago, stevewinn said:

Checks will take place on what percentage of goods?

just a little more on this this morning from the leader of the DUP

When Johnson announced his deal in October, the DUP was told by HM Revenue & Customs that it would entail new checks on goods, Foster told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“We asked them a number of questions on goods coming into Northern Ireland from GB, and they were very clear with us that all of the goods would have to be checked. Of course, only the goods going to Republic of Ireland would have tariffs, but that would be the default position,” she said.

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2 hours ago, RAyMO said:

just a little more on this this morning from the leader of the DUP

When Johnson announced his deal in October, the DUP was told by HM Revenue & Customs that it would entail new checks on goods, Foster told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“We asked them a number of questions on goods coming into Northern Ireland from GB, and they were very clear with us that all of the goods would have to be checked. Of course, only the goods going to Republic of Ireland would have tariffs, but that would be the default position,” she said.

I`m under the impression that most Brexiteers actually want a Hard-Brexit.

Those who understand economics want it so we can shape and mould Britain into another Singapore over the coming years. Those who are patriotic dont want NI separating off from the rest of us.

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3 hours ago, RAyMO said:

just a little more on this this morning from the leader of the DUP

When Johnson announced his deal in October, the DUP was told by HM Revenue & Customs that it would entail new checks on goods, Foster told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“We asked them a number of questions on goods coming into Northern Ireland from GB, and they were very clear with us that all of the goods would have to be checked. Of course, only the goods going to Republic of Ireland would have tariffs, but that would be the default position,” she said.

what makes me laugh is the EU doesnt even check ALL the goods entering its single market now. yet they want us to believe ALL goods entering N.I will have to be checked. it'll be 3% like is the norm world wide. 

 

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1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

mould Britain into another Singapore

have you ever been to singapore?

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8 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

have you ever been to singapore?

I have.... Its great. 

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1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

I`m under the impression that most Brexiteers actually want a Hard-Brexit.

Well why start letting facts get in your way now? 

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1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

have you ever been to singapore?

We were based there when I was a kid.

The only thing I didnt like is how the rain bouncing up off the ground burns your legs. The economy there is fantastic. When the only businesses which exist in a country are those with a comparative advantage then people get the most for their money.

Edited by RabidMongoose
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Just had the biggest laugh listening to BBC radio 4 news on the way home from work.

Item one on the news.......Nasty old Boris doesn't give the right response and fails to give the correct answer when some reporter shoves a photo under his nose showing a lad laying on his coat on a hospital floor (2 days before a general election remember)

Item no. 4 on the news......Boris Johnson has questioned whether in this day and age if the licence fee (tax) is an appropriate method for funding the BBC going forward.

Me thinks item 1 is a direct result of item 4.

Oh and in other news 5 people (including brits) have been burnt to death on a volcanic island.

Priorities huh!!!

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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