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UK General Election -

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RabidMongoose
1 hour ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

SNP look like they are digging themselves into a hole. The stop brexit approach does not square with the leave UK IndyRef2 position. Demanding a new IndyRef lost the SNP votes at the last election and should have cost Sturgeon her job. 

The Scottish deficit gives a black hole in their economy, if independent, that would require super austerity or big tax rises to fill. 

Scotland’s notional deficit stood at £12.6bn or 7% of GDP, including North Sea oil revenues, compared with the UK’s total £23.5bn deficit, which includes Scotland’s figure. The UK deficit is equivalent to 1.1% of its GDP.

Scotland’s notional deficit was the highest in the EU. Cyprus had the next nearest, at 4.8%, while Romania’s was at 3% and France at 2.5%. EU membership rules require member states to have a budget deficit below 3%

If Scotland wants to rejoin EU it will have to meet their deficit targets first. SNP wants Trident scrapped and confirmed that a Scottish government would refuse to repay its share of UK debt after independence.

Not something everybody in Scotland will be happy with. 

The SNP do well when sat on the sidelines and sniping at Westminster but not when the GE spotlight is shone in their direction.  

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/21/scotland-2018-deficit-higher-than-uk-as-a-whole-last-year

North Sea oil supplies were discovered in the 1970s centuries after Scotland joined in union with England.

Not only that but the bulk of UK owned rigs exist 300km to 500km off the shore of Scotland rather than just a few miles off its coast. So the shear arrogance of the SNP claiming that Scotland will inherit those oil fields is remarkable. They have never been a Scottish asset, they have always been a UK asset in UK territorial waters.

Scotland makes up 10% of the UK population so its only fair they should get 10% of the oil taxes. Mind you, saying that, I of course dont believe in an independent Scotland. The UK union does more for it than the EU one as the rest of Britain is its major trading partner. The SNP want independence for independence sake because its comprised of politicians who hate the English.

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L.A.T.1961
18 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

North Sea oil supplies were discovered in the 1970s centuries after Scotland joined in union with England.

Not only that but the bulk of UK owned rigs exist 300km to 500km off the shore of Scotland rather than just a few miles off its coast. So the shear arrogance of the SNP claiming that Scotland will inherit those oil fields is remarkable. They have never been a Scottish asset, they have always been a UK asset in UK territorial waters.

Scotland makes up 10% of the UK population so its only fair they should get 10% of the oil taxes. Mind you, saying that, I of course dont believe in an independent Scotland. The UK union does more for it than the EU one as the rest of Britain is its major trading partner. The SNP want independence for independence sake because its comprised of politicians who hate the English.

Scotland cannot balance its books even with current North Sea oil revenues but it is another conundrum for the SNP as they claim to be 'By far the most ambitious anywhere in the world' when it comes to carbon emissions.  

Demanding all oil revenue for Scotland and then claiming oil is the work of the devil is hardly a holistic approach. ;)

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/14745/far-most-ambitious-anywhere-world-scottish-parliament-backs-new-target-75-carbon    

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Setton
5 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

First of all I`m going to predict the Brexit Party will get less than 10 MPs.

But they will split the Labour Party enough for the Lib Dems to win a lot of their seats. I predict a 50 to 100 seat majority for Boris. With those kind of numbers he should have a majority that would settle with a No-Deal Brexit. And by the time they have read the small print of his deal I suspect they will go for it. I have always maintained since day 1 that we will only ever get out of the EU with a No-Deal Brexit. What is a real shame, and a real shambles, is that it will have taken 4 years to do it.

You actually think Boris will give up the opportunity to tout that it was his deal that made Brexit possible and admit he was wrong? 

Oh, you make me smile. 

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RabidMongoose
2 minutes ago, Setton said:

You actually think Boris will give up the opportunity to tout that it was his deal that made Brexit possible and admit he was wrong? 

Oh, you make me smile. 

What? What are you going on about? I never said that.

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Setton
31 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

What? What are you going on about? I never said that.

If Conservatives are elected, Boris will be PM. 

If he is PM, he will want to get his deal through parliament. 

If he has a large majority, it will pass and we will leave with his deal. 

Where do you think no deal enters into this? 

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RabidMongoose
31 minutes ago, Setton said:

If Conservatives are elected, Boris will be PM. 

If he is PM, he will want to get his deal through parliament. 

If he has a large majority, it will pass and we will leave with his deal. 

Where do you think no deal enters into this? 

The other Tory MPs hold the power not Boris.

It is them that I predict will go for a Hard-Brexit and with an extra 100 MPs following a successful election the Hard-Brexiteers should have a majority.

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Setton
8 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

The other Tory MPs hold the power not Boris.

It is them that I predict will go for a Hard-Brexit and with an extra 100 MPs following a successful election the Hard-Brexiteers should have a majority.

As i said, you make me smile. 

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RabidMongoose
9 minutes ago, Setton said:

As i said, you make me smile. 

I`m glad for you, although I didnt intent to be humorous.

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RAyMO
5 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

I`m glad for you, although I didnt intent to be humorous.

I am pretty sure the Tory Manifesto will be on Boris Deal

Boris quite likes the Boris Deal - specifically because people call it the Boris Deal

Boris will implement the Boris Deal if he wins.

Edited by RAyMO
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RabidMongoose
4 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

I am pretty sure the Tory Manifesto will be on Boris Deal

Boris quite likes the Boris Deal - specifically because people call it the Boris Deal

Boris will implement the Boris Deal if he wins.

Boris is not the Tory party, he is their current leader.

To pass a Brexit Deal through Parliament he needs majority support. And if a majority of MPs want a No-Deal Brexit then Mr Boris wont be getting his way.

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L.A.T.1961

 

Latest polls: https://order-order.com/2019/11/14/campaign-round-28-days-go/#disqus_thread 

ComRes: CON: 40% (+3) LAB: 30% (+1) LDEM: 16% (-1) BREX: 7% (-2)

YouGov – Working-Class Voters: CON: 47% LAB: 27% LDEM: 9% BREX: 5%
YouGov – Middle-Class Voters: CON: 38% LAB: 29% LDEM: 19% BREX: 3%                                                                      

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Setton
26 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

I`m glad for you, although I didnt intent to be humorous.

Oh I know. 

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bee
14 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

 

Latest polls: https://order-order.com/2019/11/14/campaign-round-28-days-go/#disqus_thread 

ComRes: CON: 40% (+3) LAB: 30% (+1) LDEM: 16% (-1) BREX: 7% (-2)

YouGov – Working-Class Voters: CON: 47% LAB: 27% LDEM: 9% BREX: 5%
YouGov – Middle-Class Voters: CON: 38% LAB: 29% LDEM: 19% BREX: 3%                                                                      

 

Don't know how reliable the poll is....but...

I'm surprised the Working Class vote for Con. is so high.... and the Brexit one so low -

 

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RAyMO
On 11/13/2019 at 7:03 PM, itsnotoutthere said:

Very interesting article......and in the Guardian too.

Since you seemed to like Mr Crace's last article - I thought I'd share this one - Farage.

Campaign genius Nigel Farage has totally self-partnered himself

Guardian

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hetrodoxly
1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

Since you seemed to like Mr Crace's last article - I thought I'd share this one - Farage.

Campaign genius Nigel Farage has totally self-partnered himself

Guardian

Yes and grace in the past as said...

John Crace of the Guardian – fresh from a rather strained comparison between Nigel Farage and either Stalin or Hitler.

How can that be taken seriously.

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RAyMO
3 minutes ago, hetrodoxly said:

Yes and grace in the past as said...

John Crace of the Guardian – fresh from a rather strained comparison between Nigel Farage and either Stalin or Hitler.

How can that be taken seriously.

its not meant to be.

As I pointed out in a previous post he is a political sketch writer. have a look a few posts back #334 you will see a link to one of his on Corbyn.

I came across his work a number of months back PM questions were always a good source - neither May nor Corbyn came out well according to Crace.

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hetrodoxly
2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

its not meant to be.

As I pointed out in a previous post he is a political sketch writer. have a look a few posts back #334 you will see a link to one of his on Corbyn.

I came across his work a number of months back PM questions were always a good source - neither May nor Corbyn came out well according to Crace.

Ok, that will teach me to read all the posts :)

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L.A.T.1961
4 hours ago, bee said:

 

Don't know how reliable the poll is....but...

I'm surprised the Working Class vote for Con. is so high.... and the Brexit one so low -

 

Yes it is unusual but Labour are expected to lose support in their traditional strongholds due to switching policy on brexit. So the YouGov poll might be the first indication of that. 

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itsnotoutthere

working-class-voters.jpg.3787ad7b18b6b1f7d561115f641811e5.jpg

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stevewinn
15 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

The other Tory MPs hold the power not Boris.

It is them that I predict will go for a Hard-Brexit and with an extra 100 MPs following a successful election the Hard-Brexiteers should have a majority.

Hmm, interesting. Boris was going for no deal on the 31st. Until parliament invented a law for a political instruction. Then he changed tact and tweaked Mays deal to appeal to a number of Labour MPs to get them on board.

With a tory majority thats predicted and if a good number of them are brexiteers they could put an amendment to brexit as you say on no deal. And i think with the confidence they'll get from such a majority thats exactly what they'll do as their not appealing to labour MPs or any other party members.

 

 

 

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bee
9 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Yes it is unusual but Labour are expected to lose support in their traditional strongholds due to switching policy on brexit. So the YouGov poll might be the first indication of that. 

 

Yes I get what you are saying.... but I would expect Labour Strongholds to go for the Brexit Party
rather than Conservative Party... 

but in places where the Brexit Party are not going to stand...... Leave voting Labour supporters could
have bumped up the Working Class intention to vote Con...

It would all depend on where the voting intention was surveyed...?

I'm still on the look at for inflated expectations of a Tory victory that will prevent The Conservative
Party getting closer to the Brexit Party.... which prevents closer moves towards a Clean Break Brexit...
which is what the Establishment wants if it can't engineer remaining.....

I had a look to see how YouGov gets it's data...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouGov

Methodology[edit]

YouGov specialises in market research and opinion polling through online methods. The company's methodology involves obtaining responses from an invited group of Internet users, and then weighting these responses in line with demographic information. It draws these demographically-representative samples from a panel of over 8 million people worldwide. [10] As YouGov's online methods use no field-force, its costs are lower than some face-to-face or telephone methods.

 

so basically they get their data from an invited group of internet users....
the broad accuracy will depend on who and where the samples are taken from the online users....

just thinking aloud for this post....

I'm thinking that Internet using invited Working Class in Conservative areas where there isn't going to
be a Brexit Party candidate might........might........ have inflated the expectation of the level of Conservative
projected success.... ????

:wacko:

or not

:) 

 

 

 

 

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stevewinn
30 minutes ago, bee said:

 

Yes I get what you are saying.... but I would expect Labour Strongholds to go for the Brexit Party
rather than Conservative Party... 

but in places where the Brexit Party are not going to stand...... Leave voting Labour supporters could
have bumped up the Working Class intention to vote Con...

It would all depend on where the voting intention was surveyed...?

I'm still on the look at for inflated expectations of a Tory victory that will prevent The Conservative
Party getting closer to the Brexit Party.... which prevents closer moves towards a Clean Break Brexit...
which is what the Establishment wants if it can't engineer remaining.....

I had a look to see how YouGov gets it's data...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouGov

Methodology[edit]

YouGov specialises in market research and opinion polling through online methods. The company's methodology involves obtaining responses from an invited group of Internet users, and then weighting these responses in line with demographic information. It draws these demographically-representative samples from a panel of over 8 million people worldwide. [10] As YouGov's online methods use no field-force, its costs are lower than some face-to-face or telephone methods.

 

so basically they get their data from an invited group of internet users....
the broad accuracy will depend on who and where the samples are taken from the online users....

just thinking aloud for this post....

I'm thinking that Internet using invited Working Class in Conservative areas where there isn't going to
be a Brexit Party candidate might........might........ have inflated the expectation of the level of Conservative
projected success.... ????

:wacko:

or not

:) 

 

 

 

 

 anecdotal evidence, im hearing people in strong labour areas talking about voting for the Tory party. Brexit party hardly getting a mention.

But i suspect elsewhere in Labour heartlands there could be a swing towards Brexit party candidates, will this split the vote, for Labour?

Its clear this election is the Tories to lose.

 

 

 

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Dumbledore the Awesome

"For the first time ever every candidate will get advice on how to protect themselves and when to involve the police". Well if they didn't make themselves so despised by their farting and fannying about with their "meaningful votes" they wouldn't need to worry about the would they. 

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hetrodoxly

Ann Widdecombe

Downing street offered her a job.

 

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L.A.T.1961

An interesting article on polling methods and there effects on polling averages. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-polls-2019-polling-average-labour-surge-conservatives-1043439

 

It looks as though the Brexit party have pulled 39 more of their candidates.

Presumably they are marginal seats that Tories hope to win?   

https://order-order.com/2019/11/15/full-list-non-tory-held-seats-brexit-party-arent-standing/#disqus_thread

 

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