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UK General Election -


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4 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

The runes here in NI are that due to the backlash of farmers (mainly unionists) and businesses (mainly unionists) in NI - that the DUP will not support a No Deal brexit going forward. But they have been known to make very illogical decisions based on non economic rationale. So who knows.

 

I suppose it's all about leverage - ?

 

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12 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

Looks like the bookies are backing a Conservative win.

 

 

elec1.png

 

elect2.png

 

 

 

thanks for that....

I think the odds that Boris Johnson should take heed of are the Overall Majority ones...

Conservative overall majority 10/11

No Overall Majority 11/10

very close... too close to call....?

in spite of all the odds on predictions about Tory seats ...

 

 

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1 minute ago, bee said:

 

I suppose it's all about leverage - ?

 

The Union Bee. Despite what some will say, the reason that the DUP who are hard line Unionists - which means maintaining the Union comes above everything else - supported Brexit was not primarily economic or that it would lead to a greater UK - it was to create greater differentiation with the Republic of Ireland - thus in the DUPs eyes make a United Ireland harder. Why is this an Issue? Because Nationalists, catholics will be in the majority come the 2021 census, and this makes Unionism feel the Union is in jeopardy. 

DUP are in a difficult place at the moment - this article from the guardian is written by a NI Unionist - admittedly not DUP (yes there are other Unionists) but it gives an insight.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/boris-johnson-dup-remain-arlene-foster-union-northern-ireland

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4 hours ago, bee said:

 

https://brexitcentral.com/a-brexit-party-perspective-on-splitting-the-leave-vote-at-the-general-election/

an article from BrexitCentral... discussing the Splitting the Leave Vote issue -

At the moment it's like Boris is hoping he can hold Leave Voters to ransom - forcing them to accept
his Deal / Treaty.... (that Farage says isn't the Brexit that was voted for) with the alternative being that
the Remain Camp will benefit from the split and Brexit could be cancelled... 

Now this is a tough one because if the Boris Brexit  turns us into a Vassal State maybe it's better to
just go for the Brexit Party and to hell with it.... and if Remain do get the upperhand... then carry on
building up Parliamentry strength and go through it all again to try and leave properly...

no one can take away the result of the 2016 vote to Leave... but until a majority in the H of Commons
will vote for actually leaving ( a Clean Break Brexit ) it isn't going to happen...

In a way.... Farage holds the key to the election even though he is being shunned by the Conservative
Party - but he's a clever chap and let's see what he and all the others in the Brexit Party come up with
to make the most of the election - 
 

 

 

 

The situation will depend on the Tory lead in the polls. At the moment there is no urgent need to work with Farage.

Conservatives managed a 40+% share of the vote with May at the helm, it only reduced as she introduced policy's that put off core Tory voters, I cannot see Boris committing the same mistake? 

As things stand there is no reason to think a 40+% vote share could not be achieved again and the latest Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard today shows the Tories on 41%. 

 

Farage might to be thinking tactically -

Nigel Farage could axe HUNDREDS of Brexit Party candidates and focus on just 20 Labour seats after allies urged him to be 'pragmatic' to 'clear out the Remainer Parliament' 

"In what could be a huge boost for Boris Johnson, the MEP is mulling over whether to ditch his plan of standing candidates in all 650 seats.

Instead there is speculation that the Brexit Party will target resources on perhaps as few as 20 Leave-backing Labour seats in the North, and not stand against Euro-sceptic Tories." 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7634403/Nigel-Farage-axe-HUNDREDS-Brexit-Party-candidates.html

 

In the meantime Lib Dems tell their supporters to prepare for government.  ;)

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

 

The situation will depend on the Tory lead in the polls. At the moment there is no urgent need to work with Farage.

Conservatives managed a 40+% share of the vote with May at the helm, it only reduced as she introduced policy's that put off core Tory voters, I cannot see Boris committing the same mistake? 

As things stand there is no reason to think a 40+% vote share could not be achieved again and the latest Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard today shows the Tories on 41%. 

 

Farage might to be thinking tactically -

Nigel Farage could axe HUNDREDS of Brexit Party candidates and focus on just 20 Labour seats after allies urged him to be 'pragmatic' to 'clear out the Remainer Parliament' 

"In what could be a huge boost for Boris Johnson, the MEP is mulling over whether to ditch his plan of standing candidates in all 650 seats.

Instead there is speculation that the Brexit Party will target resources on perhaps as few as 20 Leave-backing Labour seats in the North, and not stand against Euro-sceptic Tories." 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7634403/Nigel-Farage-axe-HUNDREDS-Brexit-Party-candidates.html

The Brexit Party only exists for one reason - to apply pressure to the Government for Brexit. And due to clever positioning by Boris they are currently down in the polls.

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5 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

 

The situation will depend on the Tory lead in the polls. At the moment there is no urgent need to work with Farage.

Conservatives managed a 40+% share of the vote with May at the helm, it only reduced as she introduced policy's that put off core Tory voters, I cannot see Boris committing the same mistake? 

As things stand there is no reason to think a 40+% vote share could not be achieved again and the latest Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard today shows the Tories on 41%. 

 

Farage might to be thinking tactically -

Nigel Farage could axe HUNDREDS of Brexit Party candidates and focus on just 20 Labour seats after allies urged him to be 'pragmatic' to 'clear out the Remainer Parliament' 

"In what could be a huge boost for Boris Johnson, the MEP is mulling over whether to ditch his plan of standing candidates in all 650 seats.

Instead there is speculation that the Brexit Party will target resources on perhaps as few as 20 Leave-backing Labour seats in the North, and not stand against Euro-sceptic Tories." 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7634403/Nigel-Farage-axe-HUNDREDS-Brexit-Party-candidates.html

 

In the meantime Lib Dems tell their supporters to prepare for government.  ;)

 

 

 

Oh, so the limp dums, the party that are quite happy to ignore the largest democratic vote in British history now what us to vote for them!!!

I really don't know how this woman has the brass neck to keep the word 'democrats' in their title.

Perhaps after the election and she's out of work,  she'll join her EU funded husbands company and help him spend their million euro donation.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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First big drama of the General Election campaign... that has got the MSM all excited
and huffing and puffing with disapproval...

Farage interviewed President Trump on his live radio show and without any prompting Trump
comes out with remarks about Corbyn being bad for the country - cue all the Trump Detractors
to loose their minds... as they do on a regular basis -

Accusations about Farage being a hypocrite because he complained when Obama, at Cameron's
invitation, made a speech with a view to persuade the British Public to vote to remain in the EU...
But the Obama speech was scripted and premeditated.... Trump just came out with the remarks..
in typical boom fashion near the end of the interview.... tagging them on to Nigel's final question
to Trump about whether he was enjoying the Presidency...

Whatever the ''''controversy '''' this was free advertising for Nigel Farage's radio show... and the
whole LBC network.. which they must be chuffed about...

the Corbyn remarks causing the MSM keffuffle came around the 26:40 mark..

ANOTHER WORLD EXCLUSIVE FROM LBC: FARAGE INTERVIEWS TRUMP - IN FULL

 

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14 hours ago, RabidMongoose said:

The Brexit Party only exists for one reason - to apply pressure to the Government for Brexit. And due to clever positioning by Boris they are currently down in the polls.

 

well the better the polls for the Tories the less likely Boris is to join forces with the Brexit Party
and that means the less likely we will get the Brexit that was voted for in 2016... ie leaving the
EU, the single market and customs union...

and this is why I'm suspicious about the polls at the moment... the way they can be used to manipulate -

I just went back to look at the polls before the 2017 election and its deja vu....

source - Independent News

Biggest landslide victory since Margaret Thatcher they said...
10 point lead over Labour they said...
concrete 74 seat Tory majority predicted  they said...

This election is NOT a foregone conclusion.. imo... and one reason the Political Elite and their Media
want to give the impression  that it is... is to side line Nigel Farage (AGAIN)... also to keep the UK
as attached to the EU as possible....

???

 

 

Edited by bee
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So The Powerful Donald is interfering in the democratic processes of a foreign nation?  :angry:

This surely is grounds for pelting him with mouldy peaches.

What's that? Oh, Barry Obama did as well didn't he. 

Actually getting the Leader of the World in a phone-in on your local radio show is quite a coup, isn't it.

Sorry Donald, 'Coup' is probably a sensitive word. :blush:

Edited by Dumbledore the Awesome
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Well, there might not be much that many people can agree on with Trump, but he's spot on this time.

Anybody who believes Corbyn would make a great PM frankly needs therapy.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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I'm actually in a bit of a quandary over who to vote for.

I'm definitely not voting for Corbyn. I'd rather stick hot needles in my eyes than vote for a card carrying communist with terrorist sympathies.

I'm definitely not voting for Swinson. How could anyone ever vote for a woman that would ignore the result of the largest democratic vote in our history just to keep her husbands EU funded company afloat.

And I can't vote for Boris because the guy that sits opposite me, who reads the Guardian & is an ardent remainer told me that Boris is a Nazis. (mind you, I can't remember seeing that item on the news)

So what do i do??

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3 hours ago, Dumbledore the Awesome said:

So The Powerful Donald is interfering in the democratic processes of a foreign nation?  :angry:

This surely is grounds for pelting him with mouldy peaches.

What's that? Oh, Barry Obama did as well didn't he. 

Actually getting the Leader of the World in a phone-in on your local radio show is quite a coup, isn't it.

Sorry Donald, 'Coup' is probably a sensitive word. :blush:

 

The difference was Obama made a direct threat against us when he said we would be at the back of the queue if we voted to leave the EU.  Whereas Trump just gave his personal opinion of Jeremy Corbyn because he was told that Corbyn had attended an anti-Trump rally in London and refused to attend the gala dinner.  Not a nice guy and he was aware that if Corbyn was not prepared to negotiate any deals with America then that would be bad for Britain.  So he said Corbyn would be bad for Britain.  He just made a factual observation based on what Corbyn himself had said, whereas Obama made a direct threat.

 

 

Edited by Aaron2016
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26 minutes ago, Aaron2016 said:

 

The difference was Obama made a direct threat against us when he said we would be at the back of the queue if we voted to leave the EU.  Whereas Trump just gave his personal opinion of Jeremy Corbyn because he was told that Corbyn had attended an anti-Trump rally in London and refused to attend the gala dinner.  Not a nice guy and he was aware that if Corbyn was not prepared to negotiate any deals with America then that would be bad for Britain.  So he said Corbyn would be bad for Britain.  He just made a factual observation based on what Corbyn himself had said, whereas Obama made a direct threat.

 

 

Wait Obama only made a factual statement as well. When negotiating deals the partners with the most to offer go to the front of the line, thats just the facts.

You were simply threatened by that factual statement.

Edited by Farmer77
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31 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

Wait Obama only made a factual statement as well. When negotiating deals the partners with the most to offer go to the front of the line, thats just the facts.

You were simply threatened by that factual statement.

Obama made a direct threat / an intervention to change the outcome of the referendum / an appeal to the British people in a joint press conference with Cameron before the referendum.  'Vote to remain or else'   Whereas Trump just phoned Farage and gave his personal opinion of Corbyn with no intervention or persuasion directed towards the British public.

 

 

obama1.png

Edited by Aaron2016
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Just now, Aaron2016 said:

Obama made a direct threat / an intervention to change the outcome of the referendum / an appeal to the British people in a joint press conference with Cameron before the referendum.  'Vote to remain or else'   Whereas Trump just phoned Farage and gave his personal opinion of Corbyn with no intervention or persuasion directed towards the British public.

 

Again you just dont like the facts. The facts are the little guy goes to the back of the line in negotiations. You needed to factor that in before making your brexit decision.

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7 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

Again you just dont like the facts. The facts are the little guy goes to the back of the line in negotiations. You needed to factor that in before making your brexit decision.

Trump has a different approach - "You would certainly not be at the back of the queue"

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Aaron2016 said:

Trump has a different approach - "You would certainly not be at the back of the queue"

 

 

 

 

Trump also has a different approach to that little thing called 'the truth'. And has openly campaigned on 'America first'. 

Forgive me if I don't instantly believe he won't seek to exploit an isolated UK to benefit his own country. 

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On 10/31/2019 at 8:58 AM, bee said:

quoting myself to add......

except if a 2nd referendum resulted in a Remain majority... and this is why Remainers are keen
to have another shot at it - because without a 2nd referendum Remain win they have no legitimacy..

 

Given the fact that the referendum was only advisory I think we are entitled to a 2nd referendum. 

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1 hour ago, Farmer77 said:

Wait Obama only made a factual statement as well. When negotiating deals the partners with the most to offer go to the front of the line, thats just the facts.

You were simply threatened by that factual statement.

Obama's comments were politically driven. A deal with a long term ally which already shares grade 'A' US military hardware and is also allowed to co-manufacturer these products, along with high level intelligence cooperation, is not somebody who would be expected to go to the back of a queue.

This also ignores the fact that UK is independently a top 5 sized world economy. Why would the US put others in front of the UK and who are they? China, Russia? both states have a less attractive and trustworthy government. ;)  

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31 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

This also ignores the fact that UK is independently a top 5 sized world economy. Why would the US put others in front of the UK and who are they? China, Russia? both states have a less attractive and trustworthy government. ;)  

Context is a thing:

Quote

“And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done”.

 

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2 hours ago, Aaron2016 said:

Trump has a different approach - "You would certainly not be at the back of the queue"

Trump can't ratify trade deals. He made much play about his greatly improved trade deal between Mexico Canada and the US - though its signed - its still not ratified by congress. And congress have made noises that a trade deal with the UK would by no means be automatically waved through.

 

Edited by RAyMO
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18 minutes ago, Farmer77 said:

Context is a thing:

 

A US/ EU trade arrangement has been talked about for twenty years or more, TTIP was the nearest that both sides came but it was considered unworkable by different groups in the EU. 

When UK decided to leave the EU it took more than 15% of EU/US trade with it. According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of Goods and Services to United Kingdom supported an estimated 665,000  jobs in 2015.

United Kingdom was the United States' 5th largest goods export market in 2018.

There is no trade reasons to delay a US/UK deal and something better than TTIP could be negotiated in a lot less time than twenty + years. 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/01/leaked-ttip-documents-cast-doubt-on-eu-us-trade-deal

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