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UK General Election -

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itsnotoutthere
14 hours ago, RAyMO said:

tories

which means Boris Brexit.

which means, gauging by re-action in some quarters here, possible riots - from Pro Brexit voters, ironically. Hopefully all will see sense though and it will not come to riots.

 

Actually on reflection, what could happen if Boris wins could be a backlash by the left much as we are seeing played out in the states. An unwillingness to accept the result (again) followed by an aggressive campaign to bring him down using any means available, no doubt helped by the BBC and MSM. And then we could see riots on the streets.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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RAyMO
7 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Actually on reflection, what could happen if Boris wins could be a backlash by the left much as we are seeing played out in the states. An unwillingness to accept the result (again) followed by an aggressive campaign to bring him down using any means available, no doubt helped by the BBC and MSM. And then we could see riots on the streets.

Chances of riots pretty high in my opinion in Northern Ireland from Unionists who supported Brexit and supported Boris.

Brexit: Leading Orangeman says unionism should consider deal protests

Unionism must consider a campaign of civil disobedience against Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, leading Orangeman Mervyn Gibson has said.

He told BBC News NI's The View programme that any protest needed to be lawful.

"If anyone breaks the law at what is coming that would damage unionism," he said.

  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50587668
 

If civil disobedience starts it will be difficult to prevent it escalating.

So if your view is right and mine is right we could have Remainers rioting in other parts of UK and Brexiteers rioting in Northern Ireland.

Edited by RAyMO

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bee
20 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

But, we're still a long way from a deal. 

Once the election is over and the real negotiations commence, all it takes for them to collapse is a little bit of the EU belligerence to occur and Boris can turn around and say, EU not playing ball, WTO. Long way to go yet. All hangs on this election. 

 

1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

Chances of riots pretty high in my opinion in Northern Ireland from Unionists who supported Brexit and supported Boris.

Brexit: Leading Orangeman says unionism should consider deal protests

Unionism must consider a campaign of civil disobedience against Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, leading Orangeman Mervyn Gibson has said.

He told BBC News NI's The View programme that any protest needed to be lawful.

"If anyone breaks the law at what is coming that would damage unionism," he said.

  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50587668
 

If civil disobedience starts it will be difficult to prevent it escalating.

So if your view is right and mine is right we could have Remainers rioting in other parts of UK and Brexiteers rioting in Northern Ireland.

 

let's hope it doesn't come to violence on the streets of Northern Ireland.....

or anywhere else .....

But see Itsnotoutthere's post above... there could still be some tinkering around with it all....?
And I've just had a look here and it says....

quote...

"The crucial "backstop", an insurance policy that would have kept the entire UK in the EU's customs area and rejected by hardline Brexiteers, is out. A complex new mechanism was agreed that is permanent - but is also subject to consent of Northern Ireland's political leaders.


so perhaps (with a healthy Leave majority) there is more room to manoeuvre ...... dunno....

also maybe, behind closed doors, some reassurance has been given to the DUP...?

 

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bee

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585709

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will seek further changes to Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, if he remains prime minister after the general election.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It has been strongly critical of the revised plan because it would see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK.

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RAyMO
1 hour ago, bee said:

but is also subject to consent of Northern Ireland's political leaders.

This is the bit the DUP are enraged about. The DUP thought they were being very clever and agreed that Boris could put the border in the Irish Sea provided it was subject to approval by Stormont our devolved assembly. The DUP then publicly claimed, when challenged by Unionists, that they had created a veto for themselves. and indeed they had, because all they needed to do was use a mechanism in the Assembly allowing the minority to block the will of the majority of the Assembly (based on a claim real or otherwise that their community was being disadvantaged). 

However, during the negotiations with the EU, Boris caved in and removed the DUP veto. Instead the withdrawal agreement, Boris' deal, made the continuation of the agreement subject to a simple majority vote in the Assembly. Nationalists are in the Majority in the current non sitting assembly and will be in any future assembly based on simple demographics. The assembly majority for remainers is even bigger. As the Boris deal creates an economic united Ireland so to speak, Nationalists will always vote to maintain that arrangement.  Hence the DUP and Unionist anger.

The only way for this to change is for Boris to renegotiate his withdrawal agreement - frankly I can't see that happening. While he and his party are not invested (time or intellectually) with the deal (it was actually the very first deal the EU offered but that the DUP stopped May from signing) it now has the Boris name attached to it. He will thus force it through the Commons.

Furthermore if Boris was to change the deal - which won't be acceptable in Dublin and hence the EU, but lets say he got over that hurdle, all he would do his switch the current Unionist anger to Nationalist / remainer anger claiming he was acting against the clear and established view of the majority of people in Northern Ireland.

so no matter what way you look at it trouble is brewing in Northern Ireland.

Edited by RAyMO
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stevewinn
3 hours ago, RAyMO said:

This is the bit the DUP are enraged about. The DUP thought they were being very clever and agreed that Boris could put the border in the Irish Sea provided it was subject to approval by Stormont our devolved assembly. The DUP then publicly claimed, when challenged by Unionists, that they had created a veto for themselves. and indeed they had, because all they needed to do was use a mechanism in the Assembly allowing the minority to block the will of the majority of the Assembly (based on a claim real or otherwise that their community was being disadvantaged). 

However, during the negotiations with the EU, Boris caved in and removed the DUP veto. Instead the withdrawal agreement, Boris' deal, made the continuation of the agreement subject to a simple majority vote in the Assembly. Nationalists are in the Majority in the current non sitting assembly and will be in any future assembly based on simple demographics. The assembly majority for remainers is even bigger. As the Boris deal creates an economic united Ireland so to speak, Nationalists will always vote to maintain that arrangement.  Hence the DUP and Unionist anger.

The only way for this to change is for Boris to renegotiate his withdrawal agreement - frankly I can't see that happening. While he and his party are not invested (time or intellectually) with the deal (it was actually the very first deal the EU offered but that the DUP stopped May from signing) it now has the Boris name attached to it. He will thus force it through the Commons.

Furthermore if Boris was to change the deal - which won't be acceptable in Dublin and hence the EU, but lets say he got over that hurdle, all he would do his switch the current Unionist anger to Nationalist / remainer anger claiming he was acting against the clear and established view of the majority of people in Northern Ireland.

so no matter what way you look at it trouble is brewing in Northern Ireland.

just leave No deal job sorted. The republic of Ireland as always wanted to be treated as a third country. it seems that when that could be a reality their not to keen on being treated as a third country.

Tories get a majority and do what's in the sole interest of the United Kingdom. the EU,Rep Ireland can go whistle. whatever problems they think exist they can talk amongst themselves.

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L.A.T.1961

With the UK out of the EU it is down to the UK to put in place what it considers reasonable checks in the Irish sea. If they fail to come up to EU standards Brussels might decide to implement another boarder in Ireland but that would be their decision and would have to justify it to their Irish EU members.

The blame for the Irish boarder issue would then fall back on those who tried to weaponize it and stop brexit. ;)

"Boris Johnson has told Northern Ireland businesses they can put customs declaration forms “in the bin” because there will be “no barriers of any kind” to trade crossing the Irish Sea."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/johnson-tells-northern-ireland-businesses-to-bin-customs-forms-38674258.html 

 

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RAyMO
1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Tories get a majority and do what's in the sole interest of the United Kingdom.

strangely enough the UK PM backtracked very quickly on No Deal when he saw the real consequences for the UK.

to paraphrase - individual consequences could be dealt with, all of them together couldn't.

Edited by RAyMO

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RAyMO
19 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

With the UK out of the EU it is down to the UK to put in place what it considers reasonable checks in the Irish sea. If they fail to come up to EU standards Brussels might decide to implement another boarder in Ireland but that would be their decision and would have to justify it to their Irish EU members.

The blame for the Irish boarder issue would then fall back on those who tried to weaponize it and stop brexit. ;)

"Boris Johnson has told Northern Ireland businesses they can put customs declaration forms “in the bin” because there will be “no barriers of any kind” to trade crossing the Irish Sea."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/johnson-tells-northern-ireland-businesses-to-bin-customs-forms-38674258.html 

 

Which no - one in NI believes for a second. How do you stop immigrants getting into the UK without border checks? How do you stop UK market being flooded with EU goods and not subjected to import tariffs without border checks?

Edited by RAyMO

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RAyMO
1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

just leave No deal job sorted

No deal at least for NI is dead. Boris will sign his withdrawal agreement. If he doesn't get a trade deal then he can leave with no deal. But the withdrawal agreement still applies to NI - that was the whole point of it.

Edited by RAyMO

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stevewinn
42 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

strangely enough the UK PM backtracked very quickly on No Deal when he saw the real consequences for the UK.

to paraphrase - individual consequences could be dealt with, all of them together couldn't.

 

35 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

No deal at least for NI is dead. Boris will sign his withdrawal agreement. If he doesn't get a trade deal then he can leave with no deal. But the withdrawal agreement still applies to NI - that was the whole point of it.

You seemed to have forgotten at the time Boris was appealing for support from Tory rebels and Labour MP's to achieve Brexit as Parliament was deadlocked - with no prospect of that changing as parliament refused a General election.

Boris then brought a deal to parliament where once again they played silly b*****s, so Johnson pulled it leaving the opposition in a pickle and accepting a General election. were into a whole new ball game if the Tories get a 30 plus majority. unlike before Boris will not need to seek support from Tory rebels or any MP's from other parties. the real prospect is with a renewed confidence such a victory gives and with a majority to back it up he can scrap the deal and no-deal becomes a reality. none of this grey area over N.I.

time to tell the EU and Rep.Ireland to foxtrot oscar. 

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Setton
20 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

 

You seemed to have forgotten at the time Boris was appealing for support from Tory rebels and Labour MP's to achieve Brexit as Parliament was deadlocked - with no prospect of that changing as parliament refused a General election.

Boris then brought a deal to parliament where once again they played silly b*****s, so Johnson pulled it leaving the opposition in a pickle and accepting a General election. were into a whole new ball game if the Tories get a 30 plus majority. unlike before Boris will not need to seek support from Tory rebels or any MP's from other parties. the real prospect is with a renewed confidence such a victory gives and with a majority to back it up he can scrap the deal and no-deal becomes a reality. none of this grey area over N.I.

time to tell the EU and Rep.Ireland to foxtrot oscar. 

So if the people vote in a government promising it's withdrawal deal, that will mean the government tears up said deal?

You're in fantasy land because your dream is slipping away. And what happened to that 'defender of democracy' drivel you were previously spouting? 

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stevewinn
1 minute ago, Setton said:

So if the people vote in a government promising it's withdrawal deal, that will mean the government tears up said deal?

You're in fantasy land because your dream is slipping away. And what happened to that 'defender of democracy' drivel you were previously spouting? 

Yes its slipping away alright, remind me again which remain party is going to win the election.

Remain died a death this winter.

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RAyMO
1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

 

You seemed to have forgotten at the time Boris was appealing for support from Tory rebels and Labour MP's to achieve Brexit as Parliament was deadlocked - with no prospect of that changing as parliament refused a General election.

Boris then brought a deal to parliament where once again they played silly b*****s, so Johnson pulled it leaving the opposition in a pickle and accepting a General election. were into a whole new ball game if the Tories get a 30 plus majority. unlike before Boris will not need to seek support from Tory rebels or any MP's from other parties. the real prospect is with a renewed confidence such a victory gives and with a majority to back it up he can scrap the deal and no-deal becomes a reality. none of this grey area over N.I.

time to tell the EU and Rep.Ireland to foxtrot oscar. 

lol dream on. No Deal is dead. Boris likes his deal - oven ready and all.

Boris is campaigning on his deal. Your only chance for a no deal is if things go south during trade negotiations - incidentally Boris says the trade deal will be amazingly easy to get - just this morning.

He will sign WA by Christmas therefore confirming No Deal is dead in NI and will spend the next 5 years finding a deal for the rest of the UK - which look remarkably like we never left at all ;).

Edited by RAyMO

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RAyMO
1 hour ago, stevewinn said:

Remain died a death this winter.

Except for NI - remain is the default position

default position - seem to remember you lot saying that for last 3 years - lets home its true this time.

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stevewinn
2 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

lol dream on. No Deal is dead. Boris likes his deal - oven ready and all.

Boris is campaigning on his deal. Your only chance for a no deal is if things go south during trade negotiations - incidentally Boris says the trade deal will be amazingly easy to get - just this morning.

He will sign WA by Christmas therefore confirming No Deal is dead in NI and will spend the next 5 years finding a deal for the rest of the UK.

No deal is dead, lets remember why he pursued a deal BECAUSE HE WAS LEGALLY FORCED into one thanks to the Benn Bill.

The Benn Bill is no more and thus no longer applies to the new Govt.

 

 

 

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stevewinn
3 minutes ago, RAyMO said:

Except for NI - remain is the default position

default position - seem to remember you lot saying that for last 3 years - lets home its true this time.

incorrect the Default position is no deal.

Disagree then tell me what happens if the New Govt/parliament votes the Boris deal down.

 

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RAyMO
1 minute ago, stevewinn said:

No deal is dead, lets remember why he pursued a deal BECAUSE HE WAS LEGALLY FORCED into one thanks to the Benn Bill.

The Benn Bill is no more and thus no longer applies to the new Govt.

 

 

 

Boris on his deal

its a very good deal

we have a deal its ready to go

the deal is very very good for NI

My deal is oven ready - just add water.

Its in their manifesto

'If we elect a majority of Conservative MPs to Parliament, we will start putting our deal through Parliament before Christmas and we will leave the European Union in January'

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stevewinn
1 minute ago, RAyMO said:

Boris on his deal

its a very good deal

we have a deal its ready to go

the deal is very very good for NI

My deal is oven ready - just add water.

Its in their manifesto

'If we elect a majority of Conservative MPs to Parliament, we will start putting our deal through Parliament before Christmas and we will leave the European Union in January'

lets see what happens, either way were leaving the EU. :D

game set and match.

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RAyMO
2 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

incorrect the Default position is no deal.

Disagree then tell me what happens if the New Govt/parliament votes the Boris deal down.

 

your kidding yourself - no point me helping you along. The vast majority of Tories will support Boris if he wins the election. The vast majority will vote to implement his deal - its what they will have stood on. The hardliners will believe they can scupper the trade deal later and achieve no deal.

Nope anyway you look at a tory win means WA.

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RAyMO
4 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

lets see what happens, either way were leaving the EU. :D

game set and match.

As I said before the WA Boris signed is OK with me - Means NI will remain in EU all but name.

Edited by RAyMO

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RAyMO
15 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

incorrect the Default position is no deal.

Disagree then tell me what happens if the New Govt/parliament votes the Boris deal down.

 

I give you that, I worded it badly.

If WA is passed and I believe it will be - the default position for NI is remain.

Even with the WA approved the rest of the UK could get no deal - but Boris thinks this would be a failure of "statecraft". which I believe is just 1 above witchcraft.

Edited by RAyMO

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L.A.T.1961

Latest poll of polls including new data from the weekend polls.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html 

General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 34

Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 43.5% 318 43.3% 262 342 437
LAB 41.0% 262 32.6% 137 226 300
LIB 7.6% 12 13.3% 11 15 46
Brexit 0.0% 0 3.0% 0 0 5
Green 1.7% 1 3.0% 0 1 2
SNP 3.1% 35 3.7% 23 44 48
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RabidMongoose
32 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Latest poll of polls including new data from the weekend polls.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 34

Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 43.5% 318 43.3% 262 342 437
LAB 41.0% 262 32.6% 137 226 300
LIB 7.6% 12 13.3% 11 15 46
Brexit 0.0% 0 3.0% 0 0 5
Green 1.7% 1 3.0% 0 1 2
SNP 3.1% 35 3.7% 23 44 48

The essence of elections in Democratic nations is to give the public the polices the majority of them find popular. It is the political left who are against populism and thus are anti-Democratic.

All Boris needs to do is say vote for me and a No-Deal/Deal will occur in 2020. Immigration will be capped at 50,000 and limited to those who really do have skills which our economy needs. And that because many terrorists cannot be de-radicalised we will get a referendum on the death penalty and on whether their family members should be deported. On top of that we will suspend cash as a means of making foreign aid. Going forward we will offer trade agreements to help lessor nations.

We all know that if he did the above he would take more than 50% of the votes in the election. Go for populism Boris!

Edited by RabidMongoose

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