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bee

UK General Election -

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bee
13 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Latest poll of polls including new data from the weekend polls.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 34

Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 43.5% 318 43.3% 262 342 437
LAB 41.0% 262 32.6% 137 226 300
LIB 7.6% 12 13.3% 11 15 46
Brexit 0.0% 0 3.0% 0 0 5
Green 1.7% 1 3.0% 0 1 2
SNP 3.1% 35 3.7% 23 44 48

 

mmmm - after all the hype of the original polls - the gap between Con and Lab is closing and I have seen
some predictions of another hung parliament... 

time will tell of course... but this is what I was concerned about... that the hype of the massive Tory
lead was a manipulation to keep Boris from a Brexit Party / Conservative Leave alliance....

has he fallen for the ploy and now put Brexit at risk... ?.... after calling the election to move it forward...

Entrance to stand in the election is closed and now NOW the expected lead is dramatically dropping...

hmmmmmm

This is going to go to the wire and the result is not a forgone conclusion IMO...

Had Boris gone for a Leave Alliance it would all look a lot different... but no... the two party merry~go~round
carries on and if Labour get in Brexit is in danger of being lost... 

Batten down the hatches.... we could be in for a rough ride 

(I hope to be proved wrong....... )

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Setton
4 hours ago, bee said:

 

mmmm - after all the hype of the original polls - the gap between Con and Lab is closing and I have seen
some predictions of another hung parliament... 

time will tell of course... but this is what I was concerned about... that the hype of the massive Tory
lead was a manipulation to keep Boris from a Brexit Party / Conservative Leave alliance....

has he fallen for the ploy and now put Brexit at risk... ?.... after calling the election to move it forward...

Entrance to stand in the election is closed and now NOW the expected lead is dramatically dropping...

hmmmmmm

This is going to go to the wire and the result is not a forgone conclusion IMO...

Had Boris gone for a Leave Alliance it would all look a lot different... but no... the two party merry~go~round
carries on and if Labour get in Brexit is in danger of being lost... 

Batten down the hatches.... we could be in for a rough ride 

(I hope to be proved wrong....... )

Because obviously the Tories are entirely reliant on public polls and never conduct their own :lol:

The sudden drop might have more to do with the Tories blatant disinformation campaign, Johnson’s complete unwillingness to actually face voters (deja vue anyone) and trying to politicise the murder of two young people who stood against everything he stands for by trying to blame Labour for a decision his own party made. 

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RabidMongoose

Well Trump arrived yesterday evening in the UK.

Welcome back! He is keeping himself out of the UK election right now but has just dropped a comment which will reduce the number of people who are going to vote for the Labour Party.

He has pointed out that while he originally wanted to discuss the NHS, after Mrs May told him it wasn't an option it is dropped. So he doesnt know why the Labour Party are trying to spread the rumour that the NHS is at risk. He has indicated that in no way, shape, or form, is he interested in the NHS.

When that starts to spread around in the papers tomorrow thats the credibility of the lying Corbyn moron dented. All that incompetent buffoon can do is make promises about making things free (which we cannot afford) and lie about the opposition. How is that leadership material? lmao.

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Essan

I thought everyone with half a brain knew all along that the NHS thing was simply about allowing US firms to tender for services/supplies currently provided by EU firms.   In other words, buying asprin for less than £5 a packet and maybe not giving quite so much taxpayer's money to Richard Branson.

How they got from that to selling the NHS to the USA beats me.

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itsnotoutthere
50 minutes ago, Essan said:

I thought everyone with half a brain knew all along that the NHS thing was simply about allowing US firms to tender for services/supplies currently provided by EU firms.   In other words, buying asprin for less than £5 a packet and maybe not giving quite so much taxpayer's money to Richard Branson.

How they got from that to selling the NHS to the USA beats me.

BBC

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itsnotoutthere

Watched BBC breakfast news this morning where the presenter was firing questions at Dominic Raab. They got onto the subject of Trumps visit, and with a perfectly straight face, suggested that any comments Trump might make about the election would be tantamount to interfering in British politics and should be forbidden. 

To which I cast my mind back and can't remember any such messages eminating from the good ol' BBC when Obama interfered in the Brexit referendum. BBC = 2 faced. 

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Setton
1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

Well Trump arrived yesterday evening in the UK.

Welcome back! He is keeping himself out of the UK election right now but has just dropped a comment which will reduce the number of people who are going to vote for the Labour Party.

He has pointed out that while he originally wanted to discuss the NHS, after Mrs May told him it wasn't an option it is dropped. So he doesnt know why the Labour Party are trying to spread the rumour that the NHS is at risk. He has indicated that in no way, shape, or form, is he interested in the NHS.

When that starts to spread around in the papers tomorrow thats the credibility of the lying Corbyn moron dented. All that incompetent buffoon can do is make promises about making things free (which we cannot afford) and lie about the opposition. How is that leadership material? lmao.

Because Trump is famed for his honesty and integrity... 

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skookum

Trump may not be the most honest but he is not stupid enough to saddle the US with our NHS. 100's of thousands on gold plated pensions, procurement processes that see them pay £6 for a box of paracetamol and £5 for a pair of surgical gloves. Both of which can be purchased for less than a pound. This is obviously to offset the cost of more expensive drugs and equipment. So you have to ask why is it so obscene for the Americans to discuss the same idea? Or is it only described as ripping off the NHS if it is done by a non EU company?

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Setton
1 minute ago, skookum said:

Trump may not be the most honest but he is not stupid enough to saddle the US with our NHS. 100's of thousands on gold plated pensions, procurement processes that see them pay £6 for a box of paracetamol and £5 for a pair of surgical gloves. Both of which can be purchased for less than a pound. This is obviously to offset the cost of more expensive drugs and equipment. So you have to ask why is it so obscene for the Americans to discuss the same idea? Or is it only described as ripping off the NHS if it is done by a non EU company?

Trump has been very clear and consistent in his priorities: America First. 

If he sees a profit for the US in any part of the NHS, you can guarantee American access will be a criteria for any trade deal. 

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Setton
23 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Watched BBC breakfast news this morning where the presenter was firing questions at Dominic Raab. They got onto the subject of Trumps visit, and with a perfectly straight face, suggested that any comments Trump might make about the election would be tantamount to interfering in British politics and should be forbidden. 

To which I cast my mind back and can't remember any such messages eminating from the good ol' BBC when Obama interfered in the Brexit referendum. BBC = 2 faced. 

Yet I do recall you claiming that was Obama interfering in our democracy. 

Or are you fine with Trump doing it because he agrees with you? 

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L.A.T.1961
6 hours ago, bee said:

 

mmmm - after all the hype of the original polls - the gap between Con and Lab is closing and I have seen
some predictions of another hung parliament... 

time will tell of course... but this is what I was concerned about... that the hype of the massive Tory
lead was a manipulation to keep Boris from a Brexit Party / Conservative Leave alliance....

has he fallen for the ploy and now put Brexit at risk... ?.... after calling the election to move it forward...

Entrance to stand in the election is closed and now NOW the expected lead is dramatically dropping...

hmmmmmm

This is going to go to the wire and the result is not a forgone conclusion IMO...

Had Boris gone for a Leave Alliance it would all look a lot different... but no... the two party merry~go~round
carries on and if Labour get in Brexit is in danger of being lost... 

Batten down the hatches.... we could be in for a rough ride 

(I hope to be proved wrong....... )

I would not be surprised if the Tories/Labour polling gap closes a bit in the last 8/9 days. But voters have to come from somewhere and both parties are running out of potential supporters from other parties.

Labour have been squeezing the LIbDems who are now just above their usual core support level and the Brexit party is down to 3% so not a lot left there for the Tories to poach. 

Based on this, very basic, approach of predicting the GE outcome Tories might end up on 44-45% and Labour 34-36%?  

Polling pundits seem to think that the Tories need about a 6% lead to secure a majority, if my estimate above is achieved then Tories will have an 8-10% lead on election day? 

So my prediction, based on the above calculation, is a Tory majority of 15-30 seats. 

 

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itsnotoutthere
2 minutes ago, Setton said:

Yet I do recall you claiming that was Obama interfering in our democracy. 

Or are you fine with Trump doing it because he agrees with you? 

Yes, he did & no Trump hasn't 

Perhaps the BBC would like to make an apology. 

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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Essan
46 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

BBC

This is my problem, I don't watch the news, read newspapers or believe anything on social media  :D 

btw is that the same BBC that it 100% pro Tory biased?  :o  

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skookum
11 minutes ago, Setton said:

Trump has been very clear and consistent in his priorities: America First. 

If he sees a profit for the US in any part of the NHS, you can guarantee American access will be a criteria for any trade deal. 

Profit and the NHS is a laugh. You send them out to buy a loaf of bread and they come back with a stale cake. Worked for the NHS trust in Surrey. We had to order hardware through one supplier. We were paying 800 pounds for video cards we could buy for 40 quid online. I guess its ok to rip the NHS off if you are under the EU flag. I would rather they negotiate deals were they are not ripped off than it being seen as exceptable if its supplied in Europe.

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itsnotoutthere
21 minutes ago, Essan said:

This is my problem, I don't watch the news, read newspapers or believe anything on social media  :D 

btw is that the same BBC that it 100% pro Tory biased?  :o  

No not that one, the one that's 100% Labour biased. The one that advertises all it's job vacancies in the Guardian, the 'newspaper' slightly to the left of the Socialist Worker. 

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spud the mackem

Polls are liars ,the same as politicians ,you can't trust them ,and if you believe in polls then you must believe in dragons and fairies .

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RabidMongoose
1 hour ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

I would not be surprised if the Tories/Labour polling gap closes a bit in the last 8/9 days. But voters have to come from somewhere and both parties are running out of potential supporters from other parties.

Labour have been squeezing the LIbDems who are now just above their usual core support level and the Brexit party is down to 3% so not a lot left there for the Tories to poach. 

Based on this, very basic, approach of predicting the GE outcome Tories might end up on 44-45% and Labour 34-36%?  

Polling pundits seem to think that the Tories need about a 6% lead to secure a majority, if my estimate above is achieved then Tories will have an 8-10% lead on election day? 

So my prediction, based on the above calculation, is a Tory majority of 15-30 seats. 

 

With the seats the Tories are focusing on it should come out as a 60 to 70 seat majority as of today.

I hope Farage is getting a Lordship, he has done so much in the cause of Brexit that the state should reward him.

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spud the mackem
8 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

With the seats the Tories are focusing on it should come out as a 60 to 70 seat majority as of today.

I hope Farage is getting a Lordship, he has done so much in the cause of Brexit that the state should reward him.

I don't think that he is the type of guy that would accept a Lordship .

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RabidMongoose
2 minutes ago, spud the mackem said:

I don't think that he is the type of guy that would accept a Lordship .

A statue?

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RabidMongoose

Scrub that, a statue capturing one of Farage`s iconic facial expressions:

 

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L.A.T.1961
22 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

With the seats the Tories are focusing on it should come out as a 60 to 70 seat majority as of today.

I hope Farage is getting a Lordship, he has done so much in the cause of Brexit that the state should reward him.

60-70 seats could be on for Tories with today's polls but there are quite a few seats with small majorities and a small reduction in Tory lead could have quite a big effect on seats won. But average polling numbers have not moved much over a one week period so I don't expect a big change one way or the other in next 8-9 days. 

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Setton
2 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Yes, he did & no Trump hasn't 

Perhaps the BBC would like to make an apology. 

So the BBC should apologise for the exact same double standard you've just displayed? 

Amazing. Are you trying to parody yourself? 

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Setton
1 hour ago, skookum said:

Profit and the NHS is a laugh. You send them out to buy a loaf of bread and they come back with a stale cake. Worked for the NHS trust in Surrey. We had to order hardware through one supplier. We were paying 800 pounds for video cards we could buy for 40 quid online. I guess its ok to rip the NHS off if you are under the EU flag. I would rather they negotiate deals were they are not ripped off than it being seen as exceptable if its supplied in Europe.

No one is suggesting the US would buy the entire NHS. They would, however, almost certainly want extra accesses and perks. For example extending patents on drugs, costing the UK taxpayer more to line the pockets of big American businesses. 

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L.A.T.1961

Voter fatigue might be setting in, as hardly any progress has been made in the polls ahead of the December 12 General Election.

The Lib Dems, Tories, Greens and Labour have remained stagnant while the Brexit Party dropped to 3%, giving one point away to all other parties. Boris Johnson’s party currently have a 10 point lead over their main rivals.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/03/no-change-election-polls-leaders-battle-nhs-11262955/ 

 

 

 

 

 

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