UK General Election -

[RAyMO]

8 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

I agree, polling is not an exact science and different polling organisations use their own methods for data collection and interpreting/spinning those results.

Averaging out all polls should help smooth out some of the bigger exaggerations but they will still lag real voting intentions as they take a few days to produce after the data has been collected. 

This shouldn't matter too much as there is usually a fairly slow shift in voter sentiment from day to day, or even week to week.

Tactical voting is expected to figure more than usual in this election and it is said to make predictions more difficult but I can't see how it would affect polling results as potential voters are asked who they will vote for. 

So the polls should still be as accurate as at times when there is less tactical voting.

It might throw up a few surprises in various constituencies but tactical voting will affect all parties to some extent. This should reduce big swings in seats, won by parties, one way or the other? 

 

I don't disagree with anyway of that - just some other thoughts

imo tactical voting may be under represented as they apply to a limited number of constituencies so may not be properly represented in a 1000 person poll covering the UK

imo There will be less of a tactical shift to the Tories because it has less avenues to come from, the brexit party vote is already very small voters having already fled to the tories.

I still expect a Tory victory though.

However I was talking yesterday with colleagues and for the first time ever we are apathetic about a tory government. They are planning to end austerity and if they sign the WA, people were I live will be largely protected from Brexit. The only concern was that they ignore their manifesto and don't sign the WA.

Obviously the clear downside is having a man as Prime minister who clearly has no clue about the details of anything, even his supposedly own WA.

Edited December 4, 2019 by RAyMO

[Setton]

32 minutes ago, bee said:

 

Just a quick trip down Memory Lane... when we voted by a majority to Leave the EU... I seem to remember
the EU wanting to get on with it straight away and said we should trigger Article 50 immediately...

But Theresa May said.... no we will do it when we are ready..... and that period of time 
gave the Remain Camp all the time they needed to F it all up - using Gina Miller as their Front
Woman to make legal changes that has thwarted the Leaving Process....

but I digress... just remembering how close we got to leaving in 2016.... then the rug got pulled
from under us..... 

Yeah, that whole 'doing things legally' is a real pickle, isn't it? 

[bee]

5 minutes ago, Setton said:

Yeah, that whole 'doing things legally' is a real pickle, isn't it? 

 

yes we are in a pickle when the newly invented Supreme Court (handful of judges) can make rulings that 
decide Britain's future.... ie the Gina Miller case.... 

Tony Blair knew what he was doing when he set the wheels in motion for the Supreme Court,,
And if one political side or the other can dominate then democracy is undermined...

I seem to remember that the supporters and financial backers for Gina Miller kept their names
out of the public domain... if I remember right they might even have had to go through legal
proceedings to keep anonymous... and well they might because Gina Miller was obviously
just a front for a load of other scheming people... the main one probably BEING Tony Blair...

 

 

[itsnotoutthere]

30 minutes ago, bee said:

 

yes we are in a pickle when the newly invented Supreme Court (handful of judges) can make rulings that 
decide Britain's future.... ie the Gina Miller case.... 

Tony Blair knew what he was doing when he set the wheels in motion for the Supreme Court,,
And if one political side or the other can dominate then democracy is undermined...

I seem to remember that the supporters and financial backers for Gina Miller kept their names
out of the public domain... if I remember right they might even have had to go through legal
proceedings to keep anonymous... and well they might because Gina Miller was obviously
just a front for a load of other scheming people... the main one probably BEING Tony Blair...

 

 

......and the Kinnock clan no doubt.

[itsnotoutthere]

1 hour ago, bee said:

 

And while I'm at it..............................  

This whole thing that is used by Remainers... and ONLY Remainers....
That we voted to leave but not HOW we would leave...

That is such a cop out and a lie because it was made perfectly clear that we were voting
to Leave the EU AND the Single Market...

You wont find anyone who voted Leave making that argument.... and Corbyn and the Labour
Party are relying on that twisting of the truth to con people in this election...

I'm a floating voter and I don't have an allegiance to any party..... but Leave voters who have 
previously always voted Labour have to switch to Conservative or Brexit Party for this election..
they can go back again at the next one but political tribal allegiance has to change for this one... 

OR

edit to add..... and the same for Conservative Leave Voters who have a Brexit Party
candidate in their constituency... this is the election to forget about previous allegiance
and to save Brexit.... and vote for the Brexit Party...

It's not that difficult to do...... 

no one need ever know with the secret ballot... 

 

 

This.

[Setton]

3 hours ago, bee said:

 

yes we are in a pickle when the newly invented Supreme Court (handful of judges) can make rulings that 
decide Britain's future.... ie the Gina Miller case.... 

Tony Blair knew what he was doing when he set the wheels in motion for the Supreme Court,,
And if one political side or the other can dominate then democracy is undermined...

I seem to remember that the supporters and financial backers for Gina Miller kept their names
out of the public domain... if I remember right they might even have had to go through legal
proceedings to keep anonymous... and well they might because Gina Miller was obviously
just a front for a load of other scheming people... the main one probably BEING Tony Blair...

Sorry Bee but can you try some new material? 

At least the 'politicians are lizards' tinfoil hattery is creative and entertaining. 

[itsnotoutthere]

37 minutes ago, Setton said:

Sorry Bee but can you try some new material? 

At least the 'politicians are lizards' tinfoil hattery is creative and entertaining. 

Well yes, he is also a lizard, that goes without saying. 

Edited December 4, 2019 by itsnotoutthere

[stevewinn]

4 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Well yes, he is also a lizard. 

I've seen him shape shifting.

[bee]

 

This election was called specifically to move Brexit forward - 

Nigel at the end of the Party Election Broadcast (2:28) ....................

"Leavers DON'T waste your vote....."

And I couldn't agree more..
 

The Brexit Party — Party Election Broadcast: Leavers Don't Waste Your Vote

Edited December 4, 2019 by bee

[L.A.T.1961]

9 hours ago, RAyMO said:

I don't disagree with anyway of that - just some other thoughts

imo tactical voting may be under represented as they apply to a limited number of constituencies so may not be properly represented in a 1000 person poll covering the UK

imo There will be less of a tactical shift to the Tories because it has less avenues to come from, the brexit party vote is already very small voters having already fled to the tories.

I still expect a Tory victory though.

However I was talking yesterday with colleagues and for the first time ever we are apathetic about a tory government. They are planning to end austerity and if they sign the WA, people were I live will be largely protected from Brexit. The only concern was that they ignore their manifesto and don't sign the WA.

Obviously the clear downside is having a man as Prime minister who clearly has no clue about the details of anything, even his supposedly own WA.

The Brexit party supporters are dwindling with most having switched to the Tories, helped by the Brexit party standing down in many seats.

Another source of support could come from voters who have traditionally voted Labour but are not keen on Corbyn or how the party has pivoted on brexit. If asked they might still indicate support for their old party but then vote Tory/Brexit party on the day?   

These voters would not show up in opinion polls as Tory/Brexit party supporters but would have the same effect on the election result as tactical voting.

Boris seems to be happy going along with the disorganised image he, and the press, have promoted over time but he is obviously ambitious and reasonably successful. Another option for leader might be a political zealot with a fixed plan and a desire to make sweeping irreversible changes without evidence any will work.       

The two approaches remind me of the old engineering adage about building vehicles, when designing a new model don't use new engine,gearbox and brakes together but use some of the old trusted parts to help safety and reliability.

Boris will largely stick with the existing system, with some extra cash. Corbyn wants wholesale changes across the economy, including tax, spending and social services. Even if there was the money the plan is undeliverable.   

 

[Setton]

1 hour ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Boris will largely stick with the existing system, with some extra cash.

Out of interest, will this 'extra cash' be the same as their 'extra' nurses? 

[L.A.T.1961]

22 minutes ago, Setton said:

Out of interest, will this 'extra cash' be the same as their 'extra' nurses? 

I think he is going to borrow it from Jeremy.

 

Some more polling news -

Conservatives maintain 10-point lead over Labour in latest poll.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/04/conservatives-maintain-10-point-lead-labour-latest-poll-11271268/

 

COMBINED FORECAST FOR THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION -

 

Seats	Betting Markets	Complex models	Simple models	Average
Con	343	347	348	346
Lab	220	218	217	218
LD	19	18	19	19
Brexit		0	0	0
Green	1	1	1	1
SNP	45	45	44	45
PC	5	4	3	4
Con majority	36	45	46	42

 

https://electionsetc.com/2019/12/04/fifth-combined-forecast-for-the-2019-general-election/ 

 

[RAyMO]

first 100 days the Tories will give us a Tax Cut of £1.63 per week.

wow!

[bee]

1 hour ago, RAyMO said:

first 100 days the Tories will give us a Tax Cut of £1.63 per week.

wow!

 

oh dear... how much did you want... 

 

[itsnotoutthere]

Here we go again. :-

"MPAC’S CAMPAIGNING FOR LABOUR REPORTED TO ELECTORAL COMMISSION

 

The Muslim Public Affairs Committee‘s (MPAC) campaigning for Labour has been reported to the Electoral Commission and they have been put on legal notice to answer concerns over its possible breaches of election, election finance and data protection laws.

MPAC will also be reported to the police and Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) if it does not give a satisfactory response to a seven-page legal letter sent on behalf of the new Campaign for Ballot Integrity, chaired by former Labour MP John Woodcock."

The Campaign for Ballot Integrity is a non-partisan initiative that opposes electoral malpractice and campaigns for the integrity of elections.

Link :- https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/mpacs-campaigning-labour-reported-electoral-commission/

How very predictable.

Edited December 5, 2019 by itsnotoutthere

[RoofGardener]

14 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Here we go again. :-

"MPAC’S CAMPAIGNING FOR LABOUR REPORTED TO ELECTORAL COMMISSION

 

The Muslim Public Affairs Committee‘s (MPAC) campaigning for Labour has been reported to the Electoral Commission and they have been put on legal notice to answer concerns over its possible breaches of election, election finance and data protection laws.

MPAC will also be reported to the police and Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) if it does not give a satisfactory response to a seven-page legal letter sent on behalf of the new Campaign for Ballot Integrity, chaired by former Labour MP John Woodcock."

The Campaign for Ballot Integrity is a non-partisan initiative that opposes electoral malpractice and campaigns for the integrity of elections.

Link :- https://order-order.com/2019/12/04/mpacs-campaigning-labour-reported-electoral-commission/

How very predictable.

Hmm.. it will be interesting to see how this proceeds ? Anyone can make a complaint. Whether that complaint is upheld is another matter.  

[RAyMO]

3 hours ago, bee said:

 

oh dear... how much did you want... 

 

Hmm didn't I say wow! 

[stevewinn]

9 hours ago, RAyMO said:

first 100 days the Tories will give us a Tax Cut of £1.63 per week.

wow!

Always good news day when i get to keep more of my own hard earned money to spend how i see fit.

[Electric Scooter]

21 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

Always good news day when i get to keep more of my own hard earned money to spend how i see fit.

Nice, it seems like Boris has psychic powers.

He knows I resent paying 5p for each plastic bag, and whatever it is on Costa Coffee cups. Or maybe he resents it. Whatever. We will get those stupid environmental charges refunded!

Edited December 5, 2019 by RabidMongoose

[Setton]

4 minutes ago, RabidMongoose said:

Nice, it seems like Boris has psychic powers.

He knows I resent paying 5p for each plastic bag, and whatever it is on Costa Coffee cups.

Is bringing your own proving too much of a challenge..? 

[Electric Scooter]

1 minute ago, Setton said:

Is bringing your own proving too much of a challenge..? 

I place low priority on the environment.

I dont care.

[Electric Scooter]

Apparently 70 Labour Party staff members have given evidence saying that the party instructed them to lie about the anti-Semitism problem to cover it up.

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-a-welcoming-refuge-for-antisemitism-under-corbyn-says-jewish-groups-dossier-11878624

Shame on Mr Corbyn.

[stevewinn]

1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

I place low priority on the environment.

I dont care.

I love your honesty and freshness in all matters in an age where were told what to think and care about. In group think.

And there will be people who'll read your post and think oh No you should care. And no you dont.

 

[ExpandMyMind]

1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

I place low priority on the environment.

I dont care.

 

5 minutes ago, stevewinn said:

I love your honesty and freshness in all matters in an age where were told what to think and care about. In group think.

And there will be people who'll read your post and think oh No you should care. And no you dont.

 

**** me. I can't even... 

'I don't care if every house in my street is on fire. My house seems fine right now'.

Edited December 5, 2019 by ExpandMyMind

[Setton]

1 hour ago, RabidMongoose said:

I place low priority on the environment.

I dont care.

But most people do. So if you're going to refuse to bring a bag out of stubbornness, you'll keep paying the 5p. 

Although I personally think you're full of it. Otherwise you'd know its 10-20p most places now.